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Belmont Club

Finding the Needle

March 15th, 2014 - 3:58 pm

The invaluable Professional Pilot’s Rumor Network site has a graphic explaining how the flight corridors were determined from the available data. The last contact of MH370 was with a satellite. By plotting range information with the previous knowns, the signal must have come from a position of one 2 arc segments, as shown below.  And that’s the provenance of the northern and southern tracks.

Another bearing required

Another bearing required

Readers will realize that if another, separate source of range data is available then it will be possible to more particularly specify MH370′s track. If some commercial or intelligence outfit has it, then we have a more interesting game.

The Malaysian Prime Minister said at yesterday’s press conference that “the investigation team – which includes the FAA, NTSB, the AAIB, the Malaysian authorities and the Acting Minister of Transport” convinced him the plane had been taken over. He added that he was going to ask countries that might be on one of the two possible tracks to help the “technical experts”:

As the two new corridors involve many countries, the relevant foreign embassies have been invited to a briefing on the new information today by the Malaysian Foreign Ministry and the technical experts. I have also instructed the Foreign Ministry to provide a full briefing to foreign governments which had passengers on the plane. This morning, Malaysia Airlines has been informing the families of the passengers and crew of these new developments.

Stripped of political correctness the interpretation of the PM’s statement is probably that the Americans and the Brits helped the Malaysians make sense of their radar data and analyzed it with collateral available only to “international” authorities, i.e. the self-same Americans and Brits.

To track down the airplane he will clothe the “technical experts” in the legality of Malaysian authority and basically ask countries along the suspected flight path to allow the Americans and Brits to pore through any available data to find the track of the airplane. That’s why the Malaysian Foreign Ministry is contacting the relevant ambassadors.

This will take some time. But the PM’s request might at the very least prod some of these countries to look at their logs and intelligence files to see if something has in fact flown over or been detected.  And if something has — well there’s our second bearing.


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Top Rated Comments   
Still, it matters that the Rada's vote to remove Yanukovich was ten votes short. -- BC Alexis

Um, ... not so much.

When the opposition's 122 members fail to either show up or vote during an impeachment trial, and then by implication, they and their party leader throw in with foreign invasion, the law is already irrelevant, and the national interest trumps 10 votes.

Moreover, who "adjusted" that constitution under Russian pressure in 2004 (if I recall the date). If the US Democrats, for example, were supporting Mexican nationals in Reconquista of the Southwestern United States, whatever legal authority they held would pretty much be contravened by their treason. Not that anything like that has happened in the U.S., or California specifically, but just to illustrate the point.

Plus, one would have to ignore WHY there are so many native Russian's in the Ukraine in the first place, i.e. due to the original illegitimate invasion of the Ukraine by Russia. I'd say the vote of a Russian Ukrainian under those circumstances, means a whole lot less than the vote of a native Ukrainian.

If the Constitution of a country means anything at all, it should protect the national sovereignty over "rights" of ethnic minorities who just so happen to support invasion by their brothers in an adjacent nation state. Then again, the entire concept of "sovereignty" under international legal precedent is defined by the country who can defend their territory. Sovereignty is usually determined at the point of a gun, not in international courts. Unless the Ukrainians are willing to do what is necessary, AND are pretty smart about taking it to their enemy, they will all be repressed minority citizens of a larger nation state of Russia.

By the way, did I forget to mention that Russian has no equivalent of the US Bill of Rights. In the Russian version, Ukrainians have the "God given" right to serve Russian masters, provide comfort women for Russian soldiers, starve and/or die, and not much else. If they don't like that deal, fight like hell, and make Putin regret his own birthday. Make Russians bleed on Russian soil.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (50)
All Comments   (50)
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I suspect that the radical pilot is on the ground somewhere in islamistan with everyone aft of the cabin DOA. We will have no news until the local sharia compliance board determines whether to claim him as a hero or condemn him as a villain. Such determinations take time.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
I doubt that the satellite is using range data, because it would be surprising if they had it. More likely, they are using signal strength. Measuring and logging signal strength would give useful diagnostic data, while range data is of less use. The arcs are on circles of both constant range and constant signal strength.

What has not been released is information from any satellite pings except the last one. The arcs are where the last ping may have come from, which is not the same as the possible paths the plane may have taken to get there. I suspect that the signal strength data was calibrated from a ping or pings while the aircraft was at a known location.

35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
I have no idea what happened to MH370 or where it is now, but I notice (and can the razor sharp journalistic minds of the MSM be far from noticing too) that among the special days in the U.S. during March of this year:

March 9 is "Panic Day"
March 20 is "Extraterrestrial Abductions Day"
March 29 is "Smoke and Mirrors Day"

If no real information about MH370 is discovered/released soon, then daft ideas like - the plane disappeared one day before "Panic Day" - will be all that CNN etc have left to peddle.

I'm already tired of TV "experts " playing with toy airplanes in their infotainment-casts. Seeing them play with toy smoke and mirrors on March 29 would be too much to take.




35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Again, why are we being given this info? If the US Intel world doesn't know where this plane went, then their budget should go to Zero, the whole alphabet soup of their agencies closed down.

But they do know. The Boeing info is parallel construction to do what? It covers US intel tracks, but then what? Tells Malaysia what really happened? Let the public know?

Why tell us or Malaysia the two choices. How does that who us get the bad guys? Are we pretending we don't know what happened? Are we making them think we are close on their trail? Did we already deal with this? If so, why the pretense that we don't know which track?
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Here is an interesting article from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on the mess in Ukraine.

http://www.rferl.org/content/was-yanukovychs-ouster-constitutional/25274346.html

The parliamentary vote to remove Victor Yanukovich was ten votes short. The vote to remove him was 328-0, but the Ukrainian Constitution would appear to require a vote of at least 338 out of 450 members of the Rada to remove him. So, Ukraine has a rotten, venal, and illegitimate S-O-B who just happens to be its legal president and who has given Mr. Putin permission to invade Ukraine.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Vlad Putin bought a lot of people, including so-called conservatives and so-called libertarians.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Imagine a Senate vote of 62-0 to remove a hated president (or at least hated by the protesters) when the US Constitution requires at least 67 votes – but because of massive protests led by Code Pink, the sitting President is forced to flee the White House and the House of Representatives votes in Nancy Pelosi as the President of the United States. Then imagine if Congress created a new militia led by the Black Panthers to defend the United States.

Mr. Putin is probably overestimating the influence of neo-Nazis upon the revolutionists in Kiev, just as other people are probably overestimating the influence of Black Panthers upon the Obama administration. Worse, his actions risk making neo-Nazis more powerful in Ukraine than they otherwise would be. Still, it matters that the Rada's vote to remove Yanukovich was ten votes short.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Incorrect. The Constitution requires a 2/3 majority of Senators present to convict an impeached president.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Could be worse: What if they voted in Boehner?
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Still, it matters that the Rada's vote to remove Yanukovich was ten votes short. -- BC Alexis

Um, ... not so much.

When the opposition's 122 members fail to either show up or vote during an impeachment trial, and then by implication, they and their party leader throw in with foreign invasion, the law is already irrelevant, and the national interest trumps 10 votes.

Moreover, who "adjusted" that constitution under Russian pressure in 2004 (if I recall the date). If the US Democrats, for example, were supporting Mexican nationals in Reconquista of the Southwestern United States, whatever legal authority they held would pretty much be contravened by their treason. Not that anything like that has happened in the U.S., or California specifically, but just to illustrate the point.

Plus, one would have to ignore WHY there are so many native Russian's in the Ukraine in the first place, i.e. due to the original illegitimate invasion of the Ukraine by Russia. I'd say the vote of a Russian Ukrainian under those circumstances, means a whole lot less than the vote of a native Ukrainian.

If the Constitution of a country means anything at all, it should protect the national sovereignty over "rights" of ethnic minorities who just so happen to support invasion by their brothers in an adjacent nation state. Then again, the entire concept of "sovereignty" under international legal precedent is defined by the country who can defend their territory. Sovereignty is usually determined at the point of a gun, not in international courts. Unless the Ukrainians are willing to do what is necessary, AND are pretty smart about taking it to their enemy, they will all be repressed minority citizens of a larger nation state of Russia.

By the way, did I forget to mention that Russian has no equivalent of the US Bill of Rights. In the Russian version, Ukrainians have the "God given" right to serve Russian masters, provide comfort women for Russian soldiers, starve and/or die, and not much else. If they don't like that deal, fight like hell, and make Putin regret his own birthday. Make Russians bleed on Russian soil.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
I don't disagree with you about how national interest can trump legality. The problem, of course, is who determines the national interest. For example, should the vote of a native Hawaiian mean more than the vote of a Japanese-American or a Haole? Should Indian tribes have the right to evict non-Indian beneficiaries of the Dawes Act who “own” land within their reservations? Should the Chief Joseph Band of the Nez Perce have privileged voting rights in Wallowa County, Oregon?

In many respects, non-Russian republics of the Soviet Union could be considered to be a Communist equivalent of Indian reservations – Indian reservations that became independent. Watch for when the federal government endorses an international precedent that can bite the United States in the rear.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Certainly would not want to be caught making value judgements between Constitutional Republics and The Soviet Union which emerged after the revolution, denouncing democratic values and democratic political institutions.
"The Communist party governed the nation under strict centralist rules; they restricted citizens’ freedom of expression and forbade opposition."

...then there are the Tender Mercies of Stone Age Cultures...

Six of one, half a dozen of the other.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
The out of work SoCal Neo-Nazis don't have too many good things to say about Reconquista.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
There was that little matter of Mass Starvation, also.

Shame on Ronnie for that Snarky Evil Empire Comment.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
http://www.podcastone.com/downloadsecurity?url=aHR0cDovL3d3dy5wb2R0cmFjLmNvbS9wdHMvcmVkaXJlY3QubXAzL3d3dy5jYnNyYWRpb25ld3NmZWVkLmNvbS9leWVjYXN0L2Rpc3RyaWJ1dGlvbi9wb2RjYXN0cy8xNTQ3ODQ5Lm1wMyoqfDEzOTQ5NDQ2NDI3MDAqKnw=.mp3

This episode of 60 Minutes has the story of the 10 year old son of a Neo-Nazi leader in California who shot his dad to death.

Glad I won't be around in ten years when he gets out of prison.

Grandma wants "Justice" for her son, but visits grandson in prison.
...just another day in SoCal.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
The flight crew of MH370 stole the aircraft.
Where it is, we don't know.
I explained the scenario last night.

The big question is the fate of the passengers. I pray for their safety...
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
It is kind of interesting to watch Judge Jeanine on Fox and hear the "experts" parrot what is discussed here.

The excursion to 45,000 feet could disable the passengers due to hypoxia.

Now they are even asking if the pings actually came from MH370 or possibly another plane.

It reminds me the way media producers followed The Oil Drum http://theoildrum.com/ during the BP oil spill. As Euan Mearns wrote in their last post.

Two other energy linked disasters, the Deepwater Horizon blowout and the Fukushima Daiichi reactor melt downs would see readership soar to >75,000 unique visits per day.

ROCKMAN was a fount of received wisdom throughout Medialand. It was nice that he was straight with the lurkers and admitted that he was a geologist, not an engineer. We ended up having some interesting discussions/debates. He sure did love his Blue Bunny Ice Cream!! (AKA "BBIC"). Interesting times!
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Why isn't the "second bearing" a circle with origin at the point of last radar detection, and with radius equal to the distance the 777 could travel from that point with available fuel? That circle would intersect the red arc shown above at two spots, one north and one south. The one north is the more likely, I suppose.

Maybe my simple mind is making this too simple...

L3
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Your mileage may vary..."

"777's may appear smaller after 2 weeks..."
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Not so much exactly an arc, but since the only information is a range from a certain satellite at a certain time it is a spherical shell of which only the sections which the plane could have physically reached are of interest. What I wonder about is why only one time/range data point? Wouldn't there be more than one "ping" during the time period and shouldn't a series of these "shells" then point to a line of flight?
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Yes, you'd think so.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Does Obama have a copyright on red lines?

We have two arcs. One is the range from the satellite to the West. The second is the range the craft could have flown for the 7 plus hours the engines were responding from the last known position. That second arc depends on some assumptions regarding altitude and fuel consumption and aircraft integrity. Given those factors we can guesstimate an airspeed of 300 to 350 knots once the plane descended to below 10,000 feet. If you intersect the above graphic with the one I did yesterday using the Great Circle Mapper you have an intercept between Lhasa and Nyingchi Tibet or possibly to the North. There is a whole lot of nothing there. There should be old airstrips that the KMT and CIA used for years to supply holdouts and rebels against the communists. The Chinese are probably desperate to admit that they don't know what is walking or flying around in those regions. They sure are not likely going to invite anyone to go in and help them look. Please correct me if my math is wrong.

Here is the chart I linked to yesterday.
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=vvts&R=1500nm%40vvts&MS=wls&MC=VVTS&DU=mi&E=240&E=330&EV=300&EU=kts
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
There are a few geologic features of interest.

1) The Himalayan mountains.

2) The Hump in Burma. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_hump

See map

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Allied_lines_of_communication_in_Southeast_Asia,_1942-43.jpg


35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Obama has put the World on notice that if the Plane is found outside the 8 hour range perimeter, there will be serious consequences.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
Well that totally works, they flew it to a secret airstrip in the Gobi, refueled, TURNED OFF THE TELLTALES, then flew on to the Hindu Kush or Iranian wastelands ending inside of a secret Spectre base in a hollow volcano.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
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