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The ADIZ of November Part 2

November 26th, 2013 - 10:41 am

Unarmed USAF B-52s flew into China’s Senakaku ADIZ from Guam, according to the BBC. The NYT and the Washington Post report the same thing.

“We have conducted operations in the area of the Senkakus,” said US Colonel Steve Warren.

“We have continued to follow our normal procedures, which include not filing flight plans, not radioing ahead and not registering our frequencies.”

He added that so far there had been no response from China.

The aircraft, which were unarmed, had taken off from Guam on Monday and the flight was part of a regular exercise in the area, a US defence official said.

The US – which has more than 70,000 troops in Japan and South Korea – had previously said it would not abide by the “destabilising” Chinese-imposed zone.

These developments have an eerie resemblance to the Cuban Missile crisis, which readers will recall, was precipitated by Krushchev’s perception of JFK’s weakness at the Vienna Summit of 1961.

Kennedy later said of Khrushchev, “He beat the hell out of me” and told New York Times reporter James ‘Scotty’ Reston it was the “worst thing in my life. He savaged me”. Kennedy’s performance at the summit encouraged Khrushchev to think afterwards that the United States leader was politically lightweight, a perception that may have caused the subsequent Cuban missile crisis.

The Soviet leader had backed Kennedy into a corner and did not anticipate the response. In a reverse mirror image of the Senkaku crisis, Kennedy imposed a naval blockade on Cuba.  Today, 50 years later, it is the US which is insisting on freedom of navigation.

While the tense negotiations were taking place, several Soviet ships attempted to run the blockade, increasing tensions to the point that orders were sent out to US Navy ships to fire warning shots and then open fire. On October 27, a U-2 plane was shot down by a Soviet missile crew, an action that could have resulted in immediate retaliation from the Kennedy crisis cabinet, according to Secretary of Defense McNamara’s later testimony. Kennedy stayed his hand and the negotiations continued.

The confrontation ended on October 28, 1962, when Kennedy and United Nations Secretary-General U Thant reached an agreement with Khrushchev. Publicly, the Soviets would dismantle their offensive weapons in Cuba and return them to the Soviet Union, subject to United Nations verification, in exchange for a US public declaration and agreement never to invade Cuba. Secretly, the US also agreed that it would dismantle all US-built Jupiter IRBMs, armed with nuclear warheads, which were deployed in Turkey and Italy against the Soviet Union.

Nor is the US alone. Japan announced that it is sending airline flights through Beijing’s ADIZ. “ANA Holdings Inc. (9202) and Japan Airlines Co. (9201), the country’s two biggest carriers, said they would stop reporting flight plans for planes traveling through a new Chinese air-defense zone that Japan rejects.”

ANA and JAL said they would halt the sharing of the flight-plan data starting today, spokesmen said by phone. The carriers shifted their stance on instructions from Japan’s airline trade group, which acted as an intermediary between the airlines and Japan’s Civil Aviation Bureau, Maho Ito, an ANA spokeswoman, said by telephone.

China’s action may escalate the situation and lead to unforeseen events, Abe told a parliamentary committee, saying that he was very concerned. “We urge China to revoke this measure, which is in no way binding on Japan.”

Australia has chimed in, summoning the Chinese ambassador to convey its opinion that “the timing and the manner of China’s announcement are unhelpful in light of current regional tensions, and will not contribute to regional stability.”

The ball is now in Beijing’s court.  Japan and the US may privately extend a conciliatory hand in order to mitigate the public challenge to China.  Perhaps diplomats will negotiate some concession to Beijing to sugar-coat this challenge. But the pushback had to come; the only question is when that would happen. In claiming the right to intercept aircraft over the Senkakus China had thrown down a challenge that the other Pacific powers could not ignore.

There maybe other implicit messages whose subtext we cannot know.  Interception is one of the most time critical missions an airforce can face. For the Chinese to successflly intercept aircraft over the Senkakus there had to be PLA aircraft sufficiently near enough to do the job. Even ordinarily they would have been hard pressed to meet a fleeting target.

But the B-52 transit of the ADIZ may have demonstrated the extent of American situational awareness; the real-time awareness of the location of China’s air assets.  If the US can see temporal holes in China’s  defense architecture, then it can slip bombers or anything else through those gaps like a boxer in Matrix-like Bullet Time who can strike through his opponents blocks.

The Black Box may be mighter than the steel, at least for now. Or maybe Obama sent the unarmed B-52s trusting to luck. At present the Chinese can’t know which and that at least will give them pause.

The Senkaku incident reminds everyone of something that is often forgotten. If something cannot continue indefinitely then it won’t. Authoritarians emboldened by their success must always remember reality is out there. China may be powerful, but it still lives on the planet earth. It cannot at present successfully impose its will on Japan, the US, Korea and Australia while joined in concert. At least, not without grave risk.

The Senkaku incident should also serve as a warning to the West. A crisis is best avoided by never giving the appearance of weakness in the first place. The Cuban Missile crisis could have led to a nuclear war. The door the Vienna summit opened could have led anywhere. We won’t always be that lucky.


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Top Rated Comments   
Off topic: Obama's ROE killed the SEALs in operation Extortion 17

"A rare look at today’s classified rules of engagement is contained in the huge investigative file on the Afghan Taliban’s downing of a CH-47 Chinook helicopter last year that killed 30 U.S. troops, including 17 members of SEAL Team 6. The report notes service members’ frustration at seeing people they knew were Taliban fighters during the August 2012 operation in Afghanistan’s Tangi Valley, but they were denied permission to shoot."

"An AH-64 Apache gunship pilot said he saw the spot from where Taliban operatives fired the rocket-propelled grenade that felled the chopper."

“Due to [rules of engagement] and tactical directives, I couldn’t fire at the building where I thought the [shooter] was, so I aimed directly to the west of the building,” the pilot testified, according to transcripts obtained by The Washington Times."

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/nov/26/rules-of-engagement-bind-us-troops-actions-in-afgh/

I've seen news reports pointing to the facts that these special operators were on the wrong type of helo and that adequate suppression fire did not prepare the LZ, as if those omissions were some sort of military command bungling. The ROE in effect when the Apache's were overhead the shooters concealed position were the same ROE's that Extortion 17 suffered under on their approach.

Obama killed those SEALs by his idiotic rules of engagement, as if he put a gun to their heads himself and pulled the trigger. The ROE's defined by higher command have predictable results. If young commanders, usually twenty-something Lieutenants or Captains, fail to follow the ROE's, regardless of the risk to them or their troops, they risk Courts Martial and prison. If they do follow the ROE's, their men will die. Obama just signed an agreement that makes the military mission in Afghanistan impossible. The commanders on the ground should do nothing other than invest in force security, period.

If my son or daughter were over there or heading over there, I'd consider asking them to take the "Canadian option" first, and desert. They will accomplish nothing over there, and their security will be severely compromised, as long as Obama is the President. I'm not speaking out of my rear end, either. We have a Marine, a close friend of our kids, who just returned from Afghanistan, and another that just left. These Marines are family to us, even the 40,000 or so we never meet on a day to day basis. There will be young Marines at our dinner table tomorrow at Thanksgiving.

Obama is a clear and present danger to the country, and a lethal danger to our troops. I swear to God I'll never give a drowning Democrat a hand of rescue, I hate them so much for what they are doing to good men and women in this country. The average Democrat who supported and who supports Obama has much to account for, either in this life or the next, or perhaps both.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
buddy - "I wonder about that surprise attack over the Yalu River. MacArthur was ultimately fired by Truman of the Democrats over his war plan --which was built around destroying Communism while he was already in the kitchen." ... "Almost as if they already knew Mac was gonna get fired over that plan of his. If they didn't know he was to be fired, boy, did they ever take the ultimate risk. Were the stakes that high? I can't see it, if so."

Of course they knew he'd be fired, overruled or somehow thwarted from carrying out the proper response. There are other reasons for such certainty as well, but if nothing else their Soviets friends would have informed them that their same internal "allies"/establishment to the Cause who so effectively influenced FDR in blowing off his ally Churchill's wisdom in order to accommodate his good friend "Uncle Joe" Stalin in betraying Eastern Europe were still in place in the American government and would help take care of MacArthur. The risk was far less than a normal, rational analysis based on public information would indicate.

Ironically, the successors to that same sympathetic internal establishment would do a similar number on George W Bush in Iraq in undoing his victory, destroying both his Presidency and personal reputation, and preventing Iran from being dealt with in time to avoid the coming nuclear nightmare in the Middle East. Perceiving long-term patterns and connecting dots is seemingly beyond the capabilities of the American people for some reason.

Every event or issue exists separate and discrete from everything else, and once the topic du jour has been dealt with and disposed of we can just go back to Panem et Circenses. I note with some amusement that Americans are momentarily enthralled with a series of books and movies called "The Hunger Games", in which the country, having been fundamentally transformed, has been renamed Panem. With due credit to Subotai, I wonder what TWANLOC are going to think when the time comes that hunger is no longer a game.
(show less)
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
"As France and Germany have demonstrated, perceptions can change when national interest demands it. But shifting Beijing’s thinking from hierarchy to cooperation will require strong leadership and a nuanced understanding of national interests. China’s recent leaders haven’t inspired much hope of either."
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/07/opinion/why-china-and-japan-cant-get-along.html?_r=0

Perceptions in Europe changed because of American post-war power. The idea that Germany and France were just long lost buddies separated by a century of misunderstandings isn't wholly true. And just as there would be no peace in Europe without the USA, so in Asia. Japan and China will compete absent the presence of a stabilizing agent.

This crisis illustrates how cheap peace is. The Left never tires of pointing out how wasteful and warlike American strength is. But the 70s year was a bargain compared to the costs of War. If there is ever war in the Pacific it will run through the "Peace Dividend" in weeks.

The Left thought peace was free, a matter of buying the world a Coke. Cheap yes, free, no. Only stupidity is free.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (75)
All Comments   (75)
Sort: Newest Oldest Top Rated
I recall, some years ago, seeing tee shirts with variations on "I crossed the Line of Death: Gulf of Sidra Yacht Club" Tried to explain it to a Mexican friend visiting. No idea what he thought.
Some liberal acquaintances thought it was needless provocation. Tried to explain law of the sea and such like and they wondered who needed the Gulf of Sidra, anyway.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Well, it's the only thing keeping Tripoli and Benghazi apart, so there's that!
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
But seriously, i'm sure it's just a coincidence and all, but do read the wiki on the Siege of Malta sometime. Ended on 9/11 (1565 i think it was) a few years before Lepanto. ''Most important battle of the middle ages'' many have called it. Seems the pope threw the victory to the knights of malta at the last moment, sending an army, in return for the knights' promise to keep open for the Vatican a toehold in Tripoli, forever. Tripoli, but not Benghazi.

Anyhoo, just about all of Obama 1's nat'l security council was or was affiliated with, the SMOMs --the Knights of Malta. You could look it up. Even the women --Napolitano, for example, degree from Santa Clara.

Hmmm....

Yesterday was it, Obama moved the US embassy in the Holy See, over to the Italian govt site. "Security" given as reason. Supposedly, the Vatican is insulted, and ''Obama hates Catholics,'' folks are saying. But, we know how these Obamians operate, now, after five years. "Security" demands require no theater, not *maximum* theater, in the fix. A big blowsy move like yesterday, & we can safely surmise the opposite is what's really happening.

IOW, the Jesuits are fixing to kick somebody's ass and Obama is laying down the cover for hisself, beforehand.

"Why, we couldn't possibly have known! You do know that the Vatican is ANGRY with us, right?"

===

...but back to your Latin friend --i was in Maracaibo when i heard that news. Waiting on a call to go out on a drlg rig. Heard the news in a bar, which had a red corner and a blue corner --government Cubans always loud and obnoxious in the red corner. That night, instead of the usual 'about Carter' grins, they were very subdued, and kept from looking at us.

Haw!
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Been reading up on Iranian incursions into Latin America. Jesuits? I wonder if spheres of influence are getting crossed?

And a side note: End of Monroe Doctrine? Why? Why now?

And then Valerie Jarrett.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Good question, MSimon. Crossed influences, i think they started dropping the mask with the naming of the Macondo well, and the April 20 blowout. Some very powerful rivals have come together on a special project, to undo Israel, the Reformation, the Windsors and the Anglicans, Capitalism, the Schism beyween Orthodox and Catholic, and Manifest Destiny, the southern right-to-work states, and the US Constitution, and all the names on all the deeds and financial accounts in the first world, all at once. The fever dream of 1968 is now operational and moving ahead on all fronts, under unified command. Monroe Doctrine is merely an island in the stream, falling into ruin as the garrison decamps.

--hate to sound so whacked out, elliptical, and stoopid at the same time, but the clues are snapping into place so reliably they're getting predictable.

As far as Latin America, you're right, the staging area is being built up rapidly, as BRIC commerce. New Orleans to be the first declared 'open city' is my bet, because of all the cash business starting up in SW Louisiana off the $20 bbl from BP's widows & orphans that Citibank (cough) is handing out according to some arcane formula that the natives can't figure out, but are not too concerned about either, as the local economies are benefitting.

BTW, i'll hazard a guess you are an Ann Barnhardt fan --check her out lately, on the new Pope.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Its interesting to me just how soon the Chinese announcement came after the Iranian announcement. And just how quickly the Obama admin responded.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Off topic: Obama's ROE killed the SEALs in operation Extortion 17

"A rare look at today’s classified rules of engagement is contained in the huge investigative file on the Afghan Taliban’s downing of a CH-47 Chinook helicopter last year that killed 30 U.S. troops, including 17 members of SEAL Team 6. The report notes service members’ frustration at seeing people they knew were Taliban fighters during the August 2012 operation in Afghanistan’s Tangi Valley, but they were denied permission to shoot."

"An AH-64 Apache gunship pilot said he saw the spot from where Taliban operatives fired the rocket-propelled grenade that felled the chopper."

“Due to [rules of engagement] and tactical directives, I couldn’t fire at the building where I thought the [shooter] was, so I aimed directly to the west of the building,” the pilot testified, according to transcripts obtained by The Washington Times."

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/nov/26/rules-of-engagement-bind-us-troops-actions-in-afgh/

I've seen news reports pointing to the facts that these special operators were on the wrong type of helo and that adequate suppression fire did not prepare the LZ, as if those omissions were some sort of military command bungling. The ROE in effect when the Apache's were overhead the shooters concealed position were the same ROE's that Extortion 17 suffered under on their approach.

Obama killed those SEALs by his idiotic rules of engagement, as if he put a gun to their heads himself and pulled the trigger. The ROE's defined by higher command have predictable results. If young commanders, usually twenty-something Lieutenants or Captains, fail to follow the ROE's, regardless of the risk to them or their troops, they risk Courts Martial and prison. If they do follow the ROE's, their men will die. Obama just signed an agreement that makes the military mission in Afghanistan impossible. The commanders on the ground should do nothing other than invest in force security, period.

If my son or daughter were over there or heading over there, I'd consider asking them to take the "Canadian option" first, and desert. They will accomplish nothing over there, and their security will be severely compromised, as long as Obama is the President. I'm not speaking out of my rear end, either. We have a Marine, a close friend of our kids, who just returned from Afghanistan, and another that just left. These Marines are family to us, even the 40,000 or so we never meet on a day to day basis. There will be young Marines at our dinner table tomorrow at Thanksgiving.

Obama is a clear and present danger to the country, and a lethal danger to our troops. I swear to God I'll never give a drowning Democrat a hand of rescue, I hate them so much for what they are doing to good men and women in this country. The average Democrat who supported and who supports Obama has much to account for, either in this life or the next, or perhaps both.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Yes.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
AoSHQ has this little gem

http://www.army.mil/article/115267/U_S___China_conduct_Disaster_Management_Exchange/

U.S., China conduct Disaster Management Exchange


"MARINE CORPS TRAINING AREA-BELLOWS, Hawaii (Nov. 20, 2013) -- Soldiers from United States Army Pacific, Hawaii Army National Guard and Army Corps of Engineers along with representatives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency participated with the People's Liberation Army in a Disaster Management Exchange, Nov. 12 -14 at Marine Corps Training Area-Bellows, Hawaii.

The 2013 DME is a subject matter expert exchange focused on an international Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief operation.

The highlight of the DME was a Practical Field Exchange Nov. 14. There was also Expert Academic Discussions, based on an international humanitarian and disaster relief scenario calling for U.S. and Chinese military cooperation to provide assistance in a fictional third country."

That is leading from the front.

Remember

IT IS EASIER TO MAKE FRIENDS THAN TO MAKE ENEMIES.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Authoritarians emboldened by their success must always remember reality is out there”

Last I checked, sometimes they win.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
“the timing and the manner of China’s announcement are unhelpful in light of current regional tensions, and will not contribute to regional stability.”

"That ought to do it. Thanks very much, Ray."
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Wretchard wrote "As France and Germany have demonstrated, perceptions can change when national interest demands it. But shifting Beijing’s thinking from hierarchy to cooperation will require strong leadership and a nuanced understanding of national interests. China’s recent leaders haven’t inspired much hope of either."

The US had a fair and balanced response. It is like a cop on the beat dealing with the taggers from some street gangs. The cop can go anywhere and pays no attention to the graffiti marking each gang's "territory". He might say "Good morning" to anyone he sees, just to be polite. But the cop (AKA the hegemon) bows to no little street punk.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
buddy - "I wonder about that surprise attack over the Yalu River. MacArthur was ultimately fired by Truman of the Democrats over his war plan --which was built around destroying Communism while he was already in the kitchen." ... "Almost as if they already knew Mac was gonna get fired over that plan of his. If they didn't know he was to be fired, boy, did they ever take the ultimate risk. Were the stakes that high? I can't see it, if so."

Of course they knew he'd be fired, overruled or somehow thwarted from carrying out the proper response. There are other reasons for such certainty as well, but if nothing else their Soviets friends would have informed them that their same internal "allies"/establishment to the Cause who so effectively influenced FDR in blowing off his ally Churchill's wisdom in order to accommodate his good friend "Uncle Joe" Stalin in betraying Eastern Europe were still in place in the American government and would help take care of MacArthur. The risk was far less than a normal, rational analysis based on public information would indicate.

Ironically, the successors to that same sympathetic internal establishment would do a similar number on George W Bush in Iraq in undoing his victory, destroying both his Presidency and personal reputation, and preventing Iran from being dealt with in time to avoid the coming nuclear nightmare in the Middle East. Perceiving long-term patterns and connecting dots is seemingly beyond the capabilities of the American people for some reason.

Every event or issue exists separate and discrete from everything else, and once the topic du jour has been dealt with and disposed of we can just go back to Panem et Circenses. I note with some amusement that Americans are momentarily enthralled with a series of books and movies called "The Hunger Games", in which the country, having been fundamentally transformed, has been renamed Panem. With due credit to Subotai, I wonder what TWANLOC are going to think when the time comes that hunger is no longer a game.
(show less)
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Perceiving long-term patterns and connecting dots is seemingly beyond the capabilities of the American people for some reason"

The MSM does their very best at obfuscating the truth by feeding them daily doses of BS
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
With due credit to Subotai, I wonder what TWANLOC are going to think when the time comes that hunger is no longer a game.

Why, it will all be the fault of "saboteurs" and "wreckers", of course.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
--ahg, i'm near deafened from that truth bell ringing
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Obama has rewritten the foreign policy stance in eastern europe and the middle east already. The Pacific represents a very large commitment of resources for the US military, with very expensive promises given a generation ago. I'm certain, certain as I am that the sun will rise tomorrow, that Obama wishes to rewrite the US foreign policy stance in the Pacific. We have seen already that to be an ally is to get treated worse than an enemy, and the best treatment, the most respect is given to adversaries and enemies.

What do the Chinese have to lose by being an adversary of the US? Or rather what do they have to gain? Respect, concessions. I'm certain that Obama would love to hand over the Pacific to the Chinese, it is a distraction and an annoyance to him.

Mayhem and violence doesn't crimp his style, look at the middle east.

Just think of what Obama could do with healthcare if he had the resources of the Pacific fleet at his disposal. All that money. The Japanese and Koreans don't vote for him anyways.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
wretchard (& buddy) - "The Left thought peace was free, a matter of buying the world a Coke. Cheap yes, free, no. Only stupidity is free."

Only in the short run. I suspect Robert Heinlein had it more correct, especially with regard to the dynamics of games of power among nations:

"Stupidity cannot be cured with money, or through education, or by legislation. Stupidity is not a sin, the victim can't help being stupid. But stupidity is the only universal capital crime; the sentence is death, there is no appeal, and execution is carried out automatically and without pity."

The cost of stupidity may not be immediately apparent, but it will be revealed over time, and, I fear, more quickly than we suspect.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
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