President for Life
According to Wikipedia, the office of President for Life refers to “a title assumed by some dictators to remove their term limit, in the hope that their authority, legitimacy, and term will never be disputed.” It is an aspirational statement for not every strongman proves able to keep his grip on office until the moment of his passing.
Most leaders who have proclaimed themselves President for Life have not in fact gone on to successfully serve a life term. Most have been deposed long before their death. However, some, such as Rafael Carrera, François Duvalier, Saparmurat Niyazov, José Gaspar Rodríguez de Francia and Josip Broz Tito have managed to rule until their (natural) deaths.
Those who did manage to cling to office appeared willing to be as brutal as necessary to keep their hold on power. Matthew White, author of The Great Big Book of Horrible Things, notes that many of history’s worst monsters died peacefully in their beds. “About 60 percent of the individual oppressors and warmongers who were most responsible for each of these multicides lived happily ever after,” White wrote. The moral of the story is apparently that if you’re going to be a Bad Guy you can’t be half-assed about it.
Ronald Bailey, writing in Reason, cites “a 2009 study in the American Journal of Political Science by the University of Illinois political scientist Milan Svolik” which surveyed how 303 strongmen left office. Most left the the way they came: at the point of a gun.
Of the 303 despots for whom Svolik could unambiguously ascertain how they lost political power, 32 were removed by a popular uprising. Another 30 left under public pressure to democratize. Twenty were taken out by assassins, and only 16 were removed by foreign intervention. The remaining 205 were ousted by coups d’etat.
But interestingly the longer a President For Life stayed in power the more likely he was to die in his bed. Bailey notes “the longer a dictator rules, the more secure his power. Among tyrants who ruled for less than 10 years, 162 were removed by coups while only 31 died of natural causes while in power. By contrast, among despots who ruled for 10 years or more, only 41 were removed by coup while 45 died of natural causes while in power.”
Once a tyrant gets a good grip on power — once he passes the magic 10 year mark — he becomes very difficult to dislodge. No rivals of stature can grow in his mighty shadow. The low information public become unable to imagine any leader besides him. National stability becomes reduced to one metric: his continued personal survival, a narrative often enhanced by a ‘cult of personality’. Bailey observes that “personalist dictators … who destroy pre-existing social and political institutions … eliminate rival centers of power where would-be opponents might organize and plot”.
The Hollywood narrative is that dictators are done in by people at the barricades. In reality it’s the Grim Reaper in the form of natural causes that proves unfailingly effective in circumscribing tyranny. The role of natural death in ending long-lived dictatorships becomes larger the longer they rule.
If unlimited life extension were available to a President For Life he might conceivably rule forever. This is no longer a complete impossibility. A Russian scientist recently claimed that advances in medical technology might make human immortality attainable by 2045.
If Dmitry Itskov’s 2045 initiative plays out as planned, humans will have the option of living forever with the help of machines in only 33 years…. Now, Itskov is asking the world’s richest people for help in financing the project …
“DARPA is already working on it via a program called “Avatar” (which, incidentally, is also the name of Itskov’s project) through which the Pentagon hopes to create a brain-machine interface that will allow soldiers to control bipedal human surrogate machines remotely with their minds,” writes PopSci’s Clay Dillow.
However that may be, 2045 will probably come too late for the physical Hugo Chavez, who is dying in Cuba. However actual death may prove no obstacle as the virtual Hugo is set to rule Venezuela by Twitter from under his life support apparatus in Havana. The BBC reports Venezuelan officials claim he will be inaugurated whenever he wakes up.
Speaking on Sunday, Attorney General Cilia Flores said that the key date was 7 October when President Chavez was elected for the fourth time.
“He already has the presidential sash and the symbols of power,” Ms Flores told the Telesur network, adding that this placed a different interpretation on Article 231 of the constitution that says a president-elect should take the oath on 10 January.
Ms Flores’ comments echoed those of her husband, Vice President Nicolas Maduro, who has said that the inauguration is a mere “formality” and that Mr Chavez can be sworn in by the Supreme Court at a future date.
And so Chavez can rule for so long as he lives. And he lives for as long as Castro says he does. Since no one is allowed to examine Chavez without the permission of the Cuban officials no one can gainsay the continued existence of the virtual Hugo Chavez except Fidel Castro.
The most ironic fate for a President-for-Life, which Chavez faces now is to exist in some formaldehyde jar, neither alive nor dead, except in a political sense. A piece of organic tissue valued not for himself or his human qualities, no longer a son or a husband, but merely a prop to provide others with the things he most coveted: a power that will now be wielded, not by his nerveless hands, but by others.
A letter which circulated on the Internet, purported to be from Chavez’s ex-wife to her dying husband, but since ascribed to a newspaper columnist — who knows? — poignantly expressed this life-in-death. I have translated it loosely below.
Tell me now whether it was worth it. The gala balls, the world travel, the marvelous palaces into which you were received, the parades in your honor, the limousines, the honorary degrees, the glittering hotels, the fabulous state dinners — tell me it was worth it, now that all that glitter and pomp has been replaced by the beeps and chimes of your electronic monitors and life support systems.
Can you still hear the cheering crowds? Or is just your imagination or the hallucinations of morphine. The harsh reality is that you are dying in a strange land; among strangers; in an exile of your own making, your final moments attended by swindlers and con artists, by a paid crowd who are even now fighting over your office, while your country trembles on the brink of civil war. Is that what you wanted? Was that your mission in life? You claimed to love the poor. Yet there are more poor people today than when you assumed office. You boasted of your desire for equality and justice. And yet you have delivered over your entire country to a foreign power whose ouster will cost untold lives.
It may now be dawning on you that you’ve screwed up. That you lived out a fantasy of your own creation; imagining yourself a revolutionary and therefore immortal. You saw yourself walking midst your heroes, the phantoms you worshiped in life. Bolivar, Che, Fidel, Marx — of whom you understood nothing yet commended to others in your ignorance. A path that finally took you to the byways of sorcery and voodoo; which saw you conjuring amid tombstones, paying court to demons and evil spirits who now are ironically in attendance at your bedside. Do you feel their presence? They’ve come to collect. To take the only thing of value you have left and which you rashly pawned to the forces of evil and darkness: your immortal soul.
Well, I bid you goodbye. But I want you to know that you are leaving life in history’s eyes a traitor and coward, a person who passed up every chance of repentance and who continued to rob posterity of that which yourself gave up: liberty, the only thing that makes us human. As for your precious socialism, let me tell you where it works: in Heaven, where it is unneeded and in Hell where it has never left office.
If it was really written by his wife, my guess is that they parted company on bad terms. But maybe she still loves him in some sense; loves him at least more than Fidel, who will keep the Venezuelan Puppet-For-Life “alive” as long as he can.
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Dang, I saw the headline, I thought it was about Herr Obama.
And so there you have it. Chavez can rule for so long as he lives. And he lives for as long as Castro says he does. Since no one is allowed to examine Chavez without the permission of the Cuban officials the continued existence of the virtual Hugo Chavez is entirely up to Fidel Castro.
Sounds like a mash-up of Tom Clancy and Philip K Dick.
Once a tyrant gets a good grip on power — once he passes the magic 10 year mark
Guess that 22nd Amendment was ratified for good reason.
You claimed to love the poor. Yet there are more poor people today than when you assumed office.
Sounds like Buraq.
For Buraq so loved the poor that he created many more.
Repeat from Matilda:
Interestingly they did the dame thing here in Hawaii.
When congresswoman Patsy Mink was brain dead they kept her on life support so that the election could be held and the correct succession could be assured.
It worked for the Party.
Back in the late 40′s or early 50′s my mother used to attend communist party meetings in Hawaii with Patsy Mink and Jean King (who later became Lt. Governor). Jean joined the communist party. My mother and Patsy became Democrats.
I remember reading some Spanish language publication recently in which Chavez described the dramatic moment he put his treatment in Fidel’s hands — as a son would to a father. He described telling Fidel the news and how Castro cast down his eyes and sympathetically put his hand on his shoulder, telling him in a manly but steadfast way that they would beat the thing.
I was yelling to myself as a I read those words — even though they were in the past — “Hugo, don’t do it! Don’t do it! Big mistake! Big, big mistake!”
But he did it. And although every man must eventually shuffle off his mortal coil, still you had to feel some sympathy for Chavez when he trusted Fidel.
Brezhnev and Franco sitting in a tree.
K*I*S*S*I*N*G
Perhaps the whiff of Brimstone Hugo smelled came not from the extraordinarily prosaic George Bush but the fantastical Hidden Imam in the well whose acolytes it is that El Maximo Jefe sold his country to. The failed Boy Wonder of political dynasties Al “Man Bear Pig” Gore sold his toy to the rival across the Gulf.
Strange that the heirs of Camelot in America are mixed up with, RFK Jr. shilling for Chavez’s Citgo, these deformations who are mere parodies of the eternal Once and Future King JFK aspired to. It is like Black Numenoreans preferring the company of Trolls and Orcs to Ents and Elves.
Fortunately Chavez did not go the full Nork/Syrian/Haitian dynastic route. Each generation showing less aptitude than the preceding. Only in Korea has the effort lasted more than one generation. Ever since Oliver Cromwell it has proven remarkably hard to create new dynasties. This has proven a counterpoint to the 10 years and you are secure theory.
My wife and I have colds that won’t go away. They aren’t bad enough to keep us from work but on the weekends we have no energy. Consequently, we had a couple weekend movie marathons; Harry Potter & LOTR.
After finishing both series what struck me was the villains overwhelming terror of death. In both universes there is plenty of evidence of life after death (more than in our world). Nevertheless, Voldemort and Sauron would go to any length to prevent their demise.
One of the comforts of Christianity is the assurance of salvation. Living in fear is a terrible thing. Glad I don’t have to. Thanks Jesus.
Let’s see if I have this right: as long as Castro says Chavez is alive, the favorable petroleum arrangement between Cuba and Venezuela continues and Maduro can claim to have Chavez’ blessing for whatever he chooses to do. Oh, and all the Venezuelan officials who are living high on the hog will continue their lifestyle. Oh, except the Venezuelan economy is headed into the toilet at breakneck speed and Chavez’ policy of discounting petroleum that is sold to leftists only exacerbates the death spiral. And this is what Obama wants to emulate here? What could possibly go wrong?
Shades of the head of Dick Nixon in a jar in Futurama.
Perhaps Hugo and Castro can use their new seclusion to write their memoirs.
That Cuban health system is so good; no telling how long they can be kept alive.
Or did I hear that Hugo, in a desperate rendezvous with the singularity, is having his personality downloaded into a computer from a late model Chevy Nova?
The pumps and relays, men have willed
Work hard to keep the heart unstilled
The respirators’ ceaseless toil
Confine him to this mortal coil
The tubes with fluids flow unchecked
Into a body syringe bedecked
And yet when all is done and said
The hour come, the tyrant dead
The Gorgon had surveyed the building again in the night, and had added the one stone face wanting; the stone face for which it had waited through about two hundred years.
It lay back on the pillow of Monsieur the Marquis. It was like a fine mask, suddenly startled, made angry, and petrified. Driven home into the heart of the stone figure attached to it, was a knife. Round its hilt was a frill of paper, on which was scrawled:
“Drive him fast to his tomb. This, from Jacques.”
– DICKENS, TALE OF TWO CITIES CHAP 15
Mrs. Chavez is right: Don’t be like her ex-husband. The world should have listened to Geraldo, but people were too busy at “real” jobs to care.
Castro himself is quite old, like Saudi King Abduh, who is 88, or Siam’s Abumolehibuljyda who is 85.
Don’t be like these men- listen to Geraldo next time. Watch Greta too. She is a very smart woman.
Most US health care dollars are spent in the last 12 months of life apart from diabetics who cost vast amounts in health care from their 30s on.
The crisis of diabetes is caused mainly by gluttony and obesity.
The massive amounts of money spent in the last 12 months of life at most extend the patients life by a couple of month-a couple of months of agony and vegetation.
Our neighbor at 92yrs had hip replacement-he predictably died 3 months later of blood clot.–this is crazy
The best use of health care dollars is in
1/ pre/post natal health care and nutrition.
2/ stopping smoking
3/ stopping gluttony/obesity
4/ encouraging moderate exercise.
Most cancers are still incurable and the surgery, radiation and chemotherapy is horrendous-let people die with dignity a few months earlier.
Christopher Hitchens is an example-he was a promiscuous bi-sexual from 15yrs old till his late 50s-he smoked 60 cigarettes a day from age 14 until 60-he drank at least a bottle of whiskey + and 2 bottles + of wine per day for 40 years.
He got throat cancer stage 3-spent millions of $ on treatments that did not extend his life beyond actuarial predictions but left him hairless, speechless,paralyzed and incontinent.
We waste $ billions on emotional based medical decisions rather than evidence based medical decisions
Who profits- me and the hospitals nd the insurance companies-not the patients and their families
Most patients with a terminal diagnosis would do better with the ” Brompton Cocktail-heroin,cocaine,vodka-which keeps them alert,articulate and pain free
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brompton_cocktail
So that they can live the end of their lives in dignity with their family and clergy
-rather than a cut, burn and poison hell of useless surgery, radiation and chemotherapy.
Don’t worry your pretty little head none, Victor. Rationed care and “death panels” are here, and they’re here to stay. The abuses of the system you decry will very soon be things of the past. Yes, most cancers are incurable, and will remain so, since the hugely expensive research that has thus far proved fruitless is a waste of limited government resources, and likely won’t continue. The “Brompton Cocktail” is a far better option for cancer victims, and for the health care system.
Welcome to the NHS, America.
The Venezuelan government says Chavez’s health is “unchanged” from its last report.
He’s not going anywhere. He’s certainly not flying back to Venezuela to be sworn into office. The doctors are essentially going to have to administer the oath to an unconscious man at his beside. The announcement that it may take “months” to resolve his respiratory failure bounds the time frame in which any recovery might take place. Chavez, if he survives, won’t be doing much for a long time.
Chavez’s supporters have sworn to strike if he is not sworn in, however. Thus, whatever his actual condition may be, and no matter that he cannot reply to questions or even understand they are being put to him, he is President of Venezuela.
Terminal health care is the most profitable Vigorish-or Vig of our whole profession-but it is a cynical scam.
We waste most of our health care money on hopeless cases in the last year of life.
These terminal patients become profit streams for hospitals, doctors and insurance companies -believe me- I made a fortune out of that business.
In fact- we are all going to to die
Do you want to die a natural death with your family and clergy?
Do you want to die an industrial hospital death?
There is no “cure” for late stage cancers -best we can do is prolong the suffering and -that is extremely profitable for MDs and hospitals
Victor, I have to somewhat agree with you on this issue of terminal health care.
We are all going to die and prolonging suffering when that inescapable last round up is imminent is not really “health” care.
However, two important questions remain.
Where do you draw the line between sustaining life and conceding death?
And more importantly, who will make that decision?
I’m surprised none of you mentioned second and third generation dictators for life, such as the Assads in Syria or the Kims in North Korea.
Those “Baby” dictators, in the mold of “Baby Doc” Duvalier, seem to be more pressing issues today.
The Second Law applies quite clearly with them, as the generations pass, the quality of the dictatorship declines.
These regimes tend to become Cults of Personality, as that suits the needs of the sychophants in the bureaucracies, (e.g. The Nomenklauta). Anything can be sacrificed as long as the Personality is exalted. Hence, Obama can throw as many underlings under the bus as necessary, as long as his reign can be sustained.
And if the Cult Leader finally loses control, the sychophants will merely exalt another, as the Democrats are lining up behind Hillary in 2016.
It’s all about power for the sychophants.
“And so Chavez can rule for so long as he lives. And he lives for as long as Castro says he does. Since no one is allowed to examine Chavez without the permission of the Cuban officials no one can gainsay the continued existence of the virtual Hugo Chavez except Fidel Castro.”
Schrodinger’s President.
MachiasPrivateer 18,
See my #6.
cgage 19,
Well said.
Major Major Major Major is in. You can only go in to see him when he is out.
Winston Churchill once said, on being informed of the demise of one of his political opponents, “Embalm him, cremate him, bury him at sea. Take no chances!”
My dad was admitted to a hospital in San Diego with fluid in his lung last summer. While there, a surgeon thought that it would be a good idea to remove a benign growth from inside his lung, something that his doctors at the VA advised against. He negotiated with a man who was on a plethora of medications and apparently arranged a course of chemo prior to the surgery. This predictably wiped out his immune system so shortly after his surgery he became infected with bacteria.
He tried to unhook himself and walk out so the hospital staff restrained him and fed him a cocktail of morphine and some anti-psychotic medicines. When I heard this I knew he was going to die. The surgeon got one more procedure out of his medical insurance and in November he passed away.
When I heard of Chavez’s condition I thought bingo. I know where you’re headed. As for me, I’ll do what I can to die with dignity which precludes throwing myself at the mercy of a Marxist dictator or the National Health System who is collectively the same.
We have the right to be born or disposed of at the whim of state dictate, as a right for those who could not afford to harbor life. I do not have warm feeling of anticipation of what the god-state might do to preserve it most fervent believers and how it might decide to dispense its limited largesse. The kiddies who shout death to the Baby Boomers are attending college as we speak learning how to administer injections.
Folks should make their own health care decisions? With government health care, we simply can’t allow the individual’s foolish choices negatively impact the greater good. Those worthy ancients who have achieved the venerable age of 66 understand that we must look to the future and relinquish the futilitarnian grasp for the past.
Annoy Mouse, I’m very sorry for your loss, and for the living nightmare of such terrible care. May your dad rest in peace, and may you be comforted by fond memories.
There’s something of a psycho-social difference between dictators who came up basically as the head of their own movement, I.e., a coup d’tat or a movement they created themselves from scratch, and those who came up as part of a Communist movement. The latter often has a longer view of history and tends to last a bit longer (like the Norks). The former usually cannot see beyond the exercise of present power, has little or no way of continuing succession upon the original strongman’s death, and always collapses within a short time. Mubarak struggled for years with the succession problem and in the end it made him very vulnerable.
Just so, Chavismo will end badly. Yes, for a while, perhaps 18 months, the Venezulan nomenklatura will take orders from Cuba. But when they realize that they don’t need to, that some bright, opportunistic military man could do what Chavez did and take control, he will. He may claim to be the true heir of Chavez or he may piss on Chavez … Depends on who the bright military man is …
Victor@13: “The best use of health care dollars is in
1/ pre/post natal health care and nutrition.
2/ stopping smoking
3/ stopping gluttony/obesity
4/ encouraging moderate exercise.”
1) Babies don’t vote
2) What is the role of “health care dollars” in “stopping smoking”?
3) What is the role of “health care dollars” in “stopping gluttony”?
4) What is the role of “health care dollars” in “encouraging moderate exercise”?
By 2-4, I mean, what evidence is there that any state expenditures, whether on “healthcare” or otherwise, substantially affects any of those things?
Futurama? How about That Hideous Strength?
“The president is ‘in a stationary condition’”
LOL, I’ll be he is!
The second generation problem goes back a lot farther than Cromwell. One can assume that a ruthless first generation dictator at some level recognizes that power in the hands of others, even descendents, is a threat. So the next generation never gets the hands on experience in being a capable tyrant. Being untrained, he has to learn on the job, so to speak, and simultaneously take on the entrenched power centers set up by the father. Not likely to end successfully.
In China’s history, Chin Shih Huang-ti, unifier of China and founder of the Chin Dynasty was a very capable tyrant. His son, far less so, and ended up reportedly hanging himself in his burning palace. It was a very … popular … fire.
#1 trangbang68
It may yet so refer. The regime obeys no law or the Constitution. Democrats have introduced a bill to repeal the 22nd Amendment. And numerous bills to gut the Second Amendment. And have been stockpiling more ammunition for normally unarmed government agencies than literally were used by the US military during the Iraq war. Consider the existence of purported Social Security Agency and National Weather Service SWAT teams buying mass amounts of paramilitary weapons, equipment, and ammunition. And I know from personal contact that the hires in these new “security agencies” are taught that they are above the law and Constitution, and brag about it.
We know that any Democrat legislator will vote as directed for anything; Federal or state. We know from November 6 that the margin of fraud is larger than can be compensated by normal electoral means and will not be investigated by … Democrat law enforcement.
So how does one plan to block the ratification of any Amendments “rationalizing” the Constitution?
I have jokingly referenced in the past the possibility of a change of regime after the coronation of Crown Princess Malia. There is an undercurrent of truth therein.
The transition, or attempt thereof, to the new political dispensation will not be an easy one. I ran across an explanation of some of the bumps in the road here.
http://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2013/01/07/bracken-dear-mr-security-agent/
Subotai Bahadur
I’m suprised you felt that way. On hearing that story my thoughts were the exact opposite – that his stupidity was finally going to cost him dearly – and deservedly.
Re Victor #13:
Actually if you buy into the Taubes lo-carb view of the world, Type II Diabetes is entirely a product of federal misinformation on dietary choices. The food pyramid that we have been working from as a nation for the last half century is hi-carb / lo fat leading directly to the obesity problem.
And with ObamaCare, the feds are giving us a solution to the problem they created by screwing up the dietary recommendations with junk science. I prefer to believe that it was not intentional but remain capable of being persuaded otherwise. Cheers -
#26 gokart-mozart
By 2-4, I mean, what evidence is there that any state expenditures, whether on “healthcare” or otherwise, substantially affects any of those things?
None now, but once those things become mandatory under Obamacare, Revised Edition …
I’m beginning to think that the rest of us should just opt out. Vote “not present”. Then the Left will own what happens next. Otherwise, they’ll, with their propagandists in the MSM, just blame compromised solutions on the opposition.
In the meantime, stock up on things with real value.
obama is a tyrant, but not a good one. his people depend on food stamps. it’s hard to stock up on food stamps.
when the dollar fails, the food and fuel costs go up so far and so fast, a food stamp will be the only thing to lick.
not to mention the cost of security.
cops don’t work for free.
welcome, slaves, to your new utopia.
You are on the Menu!
“a 2009 study in the American Journal of Political Science by the University of Illinois political scientist Milan Svolik” which surveyed how 303 strongmen left office.
I bet the Kennedys weren’t even counted – maybe the only true strongmen out of all of them.
It is said that a competent District Attorney can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich. Well a modern ICU can keep that ham sandwich living forever.
Remember the old SNL joke when for some years every show they would repeat “And Francisco Franco is still dead”. The new meme lasting well into mid-century can be, “And Hugo Chavez is still alive”.
Concerning the fall of tyrants, history shows that they are not overthrown from their excesses, but paradoxically, when they liberalize and the lot of their subjects begins to show notable improvement, thus growing their expectations.
re 30. agimarc
Re Victor #13:
“Actually if you buy into the Taubes lo-carb view of the world, Type II Diabetes is entirely a product of federal misinformation on dietary choices. The food pyramid that we have been working from as a nation for the last half century is hi-carb / lo fat leading directly to the obesity problem.”
Not just obesity + diabetes, the food pyramid and “healthy whole grains” also cause heart disease. Google “heart scan blog”.
To add federal insult to injury, the grains most subsidized (corn, wheat, soy) are basically the worst foods you can eat. Rice and potatoes are less toxic and lower glycemic index (see http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2999543/ )
And don’t get me started on school lunches and the lack of recess and PE, which are indubitably linked to the rise in childhood obesity.
PS Victor I teach prenatal nutrition and natural birth classes. Where can I get some “health care dollars” ?