Yes, if it can impose a blockade lasting several months, is willing to risk to risk the destruction of Libyan oil, and can eventually deploy UAVs over Libya. But the the worst thing they can do is let the fighting drag on, because it will almost inevitably lead to a humanitarian crisis in Libya.
The major problem facing NATO is that the rebels have been driven too far east to secure the facilities and the pipelines which take the product to the coast (see map below). To avoid permanently splitting the country along some kind of No-Man’s Land, it is not enough for the rebels to stop Khadaffi at the gates of Benghazi; they must drive west far enough to take the infrastructure from the Duck of Death. Only then can Libya be reconstituted as a single political entity.
Oil
The major NATO advantage in this campaign is that they control the sea. Khadaffi can be strangled by denying him arms, ammunition, and military supplies, all of which can come in quantity only by sea. But its effects will take months to be decisive. Japan in World War 2 and the Iraqi insurgency showed how far limited supplies can be extended. There is probably still enough explosives in Khadaffi’s arsenals to manufacture millions of IEDs, all of which can be used to slow the rebel advance. They will last even longer if he goes on the defense.
The control of the Med would be largely wasted unless NATO can open the port of Benghazi to allied shipping. But it must be done by rebel forces alone or run afoul of the UN proscription on the use of occupation forces. That may be a term of art which will permit the use of naval troops and marines to in port areas. And the security must extend at least out to artillery range of the port. Antiship missiles may also play a part. Recently the Jerusalem Post reported that a ship smuggling C-802 antiship missiles into Gaza had been intercepted. The shipment weighed only 50 tons. If such weapons reached Khadaffi they might complicate matters.
Khadaffi may try to mine the port or otherwise damage it because the Duck has a further weapon he can employ: humanitarian warfare. As can be seen from the map below, the water supply infrastructure is located to the west, again beyond Benghazi. If Khadaffi can drive, by terror or ethnic cleansing, his opponents into rebel lines, the onus of feeding and watering perhaps millions will fall to NATO. They cannot do this without a port.
Water
Ultimately the rebels will need to be built up by Western training and advice to be capable of the offensive. This would be a good opportunity for the West to essentially “take over” the rebel movement and influence it in pro-NATO directions. But again, it will take a length of time on the order of magnitude of the US rebuilding of Iraqi security forces to develop an acceptable force; that is unless the whole task is subcontracted to Egypt. But Egypt is currently in turmoil so that is questionable.
Accd to AP, the US has just launched 112 cruise missiles at Libyan targets.
What a stupid waste.
I think we can win with aircraft by targeting Ghaddaffi’s armed forces. That is the heart of his regime and he cannot rule without it. That is the center of gravity for his regime. He rules by terror and the military, paramilitaries, and mercenaries under his control are his whip. Much of their capability against the rebels is only relative, as by any other standard their leadership and training are mediocre.
His main advantages right now are tanks and artillery. Those are relatively easy to see in the desert, and if they move they can be found and bombed. If they don’t move he can’t win.
We need lots of drones over Libya. That means fewer drones in Afghanistan. That will cost us lives. We need the reconnaissance and endurance of drones for an air campaign. Funny how useful the droids have become in so short a time.
NATO won the Kosovo war by strategic bombing of civilian infrastructure targets. The air campaign against Serbian ground forces was a failure. Libya should be different because of 13 years of technological advancements, relative Libyan incompetence, and the difference in terrain between the Balkans and North Africa. It’s much harder to hide in the desert. Government forces can’t attack without moving, and if they do they can be targeted by aircraft. The Serbs simply had to hide.
This is doable as an air operation. Ghadaffi doesn’t have a united population behind him and he won’t have much support even in the Arab world. American diplomacy did win a victory, and our diplomats deserve credit for making the Arab governments publicly commit to this war.
I didn’t think Russia and China would ever not veto a UN resolution like this, but they let it go. I don’t know why. I’d like to.
Partition, no man’s land, wire fence, tunnels, arms boats, Egyptian meddling, right of return, never-ending feeding of Easterners and Westerners by the West, kaffeihs, fading starlets on support marches, UN resolutions ad nauseum, death-to-America marches on both sides of the partition, rizzas, suicide bombings…
As it was in the beginning, now and ever shall be,
ADE
And again, why do we not have a carrier there already?
Wretchard,
If the West’s air-support is persistent, won’t this quickly become a series of urban battles? The loyalists aren’t going to want to step outside. The rebels should have the advantage here, as they can pick which cities to attack and when, and the loyalists won’t be able to reinforce each other. Perhaps the rebels can “urban hop” to Tripoli.
A blockade, cruise missile strikes and a no-fly-zone are all effectively acts of war. Given that, will France finish this by cutting the road to the east of Tripoli with amphibious forces? That would basically sever the Duck’s advance forces from their base and bring a swift end to the proceedings.
Who knows?
One of the problems with using non-UAV air or without ground spotting is what to do when blue and red are in contact. The targets have to be identified precisely or you will bring down ordnance on the wrong heads.
That might be solved by seconding special forces to the rebels, so the prohibition against “ground troops” may be need to be fudged. This becomes even more complicated in an urban battle because collateral damage becomes an issue. Maybe Egyptians can be used as advisers because they are not as visible as Westerners.
None of these would be a problem if the Libyan rebels were moderately competent. They could simply run with the advantages conferred by a limited air-ground campaign and mop up the Duck’s forces themselves, relying on air to simply interdict red force supplies.
How it will turn out will soon be seen. But the basic calculus remains. Now that his has started, NATO should finish Khadaffi as quickly as possible. The longer it drags the more complicated it might be.
We can cut the road with aircraft.
I think Ghaquadaffiy will quit now that we are actually bombing. I think he wanted to get away with a few more days before the cease fire. He respects and fears US airpower.
Of course, no one has ever gotten rich betting that he’s rational.
Also, we’ve done this partnership between native rebels and US airpower before. Afghanistan 2001. It’s doable. Providing special forces for FAC is important. IDK if that will fly, so to speak.
Can the rebels hire Chadians?
I keep looking for Egypt to invade. They could use the oil, and historically Libya was part of Egypt. Don’t know how the rebels would regard this.
The cheapest, and probably the smartest, way out is to kill Qadhafi and his sons. With so many mercenaries floating around the neighborhood and a bag of dollars I cannot imagine it would be too difficult to find willing triggermen.
I hope the US does not get sucked into another nation building scheme.
This is, as all military operations are, exercises in Will. I have doubts the coalition of disparate interests involved have much staying power. That includes the US. If this does not go quickly, the coalition may fragment, especially when the Europeans read the balance sheet. Can Sarkosy keep it together? The Empty Suit doesn’t inspire martial confidence…
The rule against ground forces can be elided by rebadging or designating them as “Advisors.”
The post-colonial sanctity of borders is now obsolete since the Sudan referendum. Libya is cobbled together from 3 provinces. This is essentially a rebellion in the Eastern province of Cyrencia. If the line of control gets rolled back to Sirt I’d call it a win.
Cut the damn head off the snake! Why all the tactical navel gazing? Reagan almost got him! Putting a few euro-heads together ought to put him on the run, if not neutralize him altogether. Why doesn’t one of those 112 cruise missiles have a duck-bill at the head of it?
Just looking at my old Dads snaps from 1941-3 [8th Army]. They went up & down that coast more than once.
If only Rommel had known he was literally standing on oil! The interdiction of fuel from Italy played a major part in halting Africa Korps – and supplies are possibly the achilles heel for both sides in this conflict. That water map is dynamite.
“Can NATO topple the Khadaffi regime?”
Now that we have started dare NATO not?
Boiled…
If only he’d known he was standing on endless fresh water!
As a humorous/interesting aside, I think that the following movie clip is the origin of the phrase “The Duck of Death.” Or is there an earlier reference? (Apologies if someone has already pointed this out.) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bLR04OkC-I&feature=related
They just showed video on Fox News. Some of the Tomahawks came from a USN surface combatant, a destroyer.
Not only are we pursuing Regime Change, but the Bush Doctrine of Pre-emption lives on!
Obama and Hillary must be wracking their brains on how to both look assertive and at the same time do this thing half-assed. No, wait – that second part comes natural to them.
Note the name: Operation Odyssey DAwn. The OODA loop is what we’re going after.
Firecapt@13 When Sarkozy sees the bill? He has invested what maybe a dozen plane and blown up a pickup truck and likely exhausted his air forces operational budget for this fiscal quarter. We on the other hand are totally and if we just fired off 112 cruise missiles that is more than Frances air force budget for the year and we are in day one. We cannot afford to fight this war right now let alone win it because victory would cost us 10X what fighting it costs.
Obama is criminally inept and needs to be impeached but of course that is not going to happen. We are going to be stuck with this idiot for another 22 months.
Wretchard is right the longer this goes on the stronger Daffy will get but the sooner it ends the bigger the post war bills will be. Libya is not a country. It is like Afghanistan merely a geographical expression.
Some numbers.
Population of Libya is about 6.4 million – 1/4 size of Iraq.
(and much more easily accessible)
Half the population is “friendly”.
Their entire economy is based on selling oil to the west, produced with foreign labor.
Their army is mostly mercenaries of dubious skill.
Using strategic assets against the likes of this is absurd … except that I suppose we can use up some older inventory, we can use the practice, it’s a warning to other major powers (sic) like Yemen and Bahrain, and Hillary gets her rocks off.
Militarily, this is double-absurd. We are using fancy technology at great expense on goat herders. Why? Because we dare not put our kaffir boots onto the holy soil of dar al-Islam, even the rebels would turn on us. Plus, we might have to shoot someone face-on, instead of by collateral damage.
Plus – there is nobody to take over. Say we landed a division, cruised into downtown Tripoli running stop signs and red lights, and found it deserted, and turned it over to … who? And we dare not stay ourselves, because that would be “occupation”. We could turn it over to Egypt, except … well, they have their own problems, right at this moment.
Let’s see … we managed to invade Panama (pop. 3m), and Grenada (pop. 130k), without first launching 112 cruise missiles. Well, we only barely *had* cruise missiles at the time, and maybe we were not so finicky about shooting Cubans or whoever it was was oppressing the Panamanians.
Come on. The only tactics that make any sense are for us to set up a NATO base in the desert and run all operations from that. And I hope we will, if this goes more than 72 hours. If this turns into anything more extended without doing so, it will be a huge travesty.
Anyone want to start a pool – how long before Gaddafi abdicates, is pulled from his spidey-hole, or swallows a hellfire? I’ll take 112 hours, starting three hours ago. The number just came to me. That would be, um, … Thursday morning, 3/31, 3AM PDT.
–
If Obambus (or Sarkozy or anyone else) had a tenth of the intellect and mojo that he pretends, he could have talked Gaddafi into exile, handing it over to his new-generation kids with some face-saving legislative elections.
The time to strike was back in February. Then it would been only a matter of a puff of wind on a house of cards. Now things won’t be easy. So while the Obumbler was picking his NCAA picks Gaddafi stablized his hold on Libya and its military. Only if he had listen to Palin when she called for a no-fly zone back on 2/22
For those concerned:
“Khadaffi, then Gadaffi” in Morse code is:
-.- …. .- -.. .- ..-. ..-. .. –..– / –. .- -.. .- ..-. ..-. ..
I’m looking into the semaphore spelling of ‘his’ name with little success.
Picture of great leader:
http://www.watchdog.cz/edit/uploaded/large/Muammar_Gaddafi.png
Why is my gut rooting against NATO?
Who knew the French were brutal warmongers a la George Bush?
I never ever want to hear a single word about oil-stealing baby-killing American war criminals from anywhere near the EU- not even from Iceland.
Europe has plainly taken the lead on this and quite possibly pushed a Khaddafi-friendly Obama into taking actions he intensely dislikes. So when civilians start dying courtesy of the intervention and EU troops make sure the oil keeps flowing to Europe- hey, enjoy.
Remember Europe: You broke it, you own it.
Don’t expect Uncle Sugar to pay this butcher’s bill for you.
What is the United States of America’s interest in this fight? Why are we supporting the rebels? Is there any way to tell if the government they would set up would be better than Kaddaffiy? What if they win, but the country slides into long term chaos as the different factions (tribes) among the rebels cannot agree on how to split the oil money? Why should American citizens care about Libya, it’s people or it’s oil more that we care about America? And if we care about America more than Libya, why is the US/Mexico border wide open and unguarded while we spend millions (possibly tens of millions) to be involved in Libya?
Why is Libya more important than Sudan? We watched hundreds of thousands starved to death by the Sudan government and we did nothing. I am no fan of Kaddaffi, but what’s so bad about having a kook dictator run that country? So long as he sells his oil on the open market and does not actively launch major terrorist strikes against the west, why do we care how long he stays in power?
I think we are making a mistake. Secure the US/Mexico border. Drill of oil all over North America,including the Beaufort Sea, off the coast of Santa Barbara, the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and anywhere else likely to find oil. But we are not going to do this. I agree with those commenters who argue that there is a likelihood that Obama is not merely incompetent and bumbling, but is actively pursuing whatever policies, both domestic and foreign policies, which are calculated to do the maximum harm to American interests.
At the end of the day we have no reason to believe that these events will do anything but speed up the rise of the muslim brotherhood.
This is a fraud and undoubtedly the most two faced fraud politically and militarily in the history of the United States.
Allow me my most cynical snide remark first. He is doing this to insure his re-election. Trusting simply the herd like sensibilities of the public to support the CIC in a time of war and the media to reflexively, obediently, and definitely unreflectively paint and portray a Crayola crayon sketch of what is occurring in Libya. What else did we expect! Regrettably we will have to wait days or weeks from now before the honest assessment finally takes shape from this paint by dots crap that is passing as news analysis. Excuse me it isn’t even near paint by dots. It is total BS.
The curtain in this land of Oz is so obviously pulled back and the bells and whistles and pulleys of power are being manhandled to stop the mouths of dissent and simply turn on the spigot of statist and military might which will then ooze out another cup full of corruption and display this President’s monumental propensity too waste our wealth and every aspect of our national treasure. We are now involved tragically in three wars two of which seem to be of the unending variety. Now all three orchestrated by the winner of the Noble Peace Prize in 2009. What????
Can you just imagine the incredible anti war protests that will fill to overflowing the public spaces all across America. Not!
We are truly in reprobate city. Infinite war led by a Peace Prize Laureate. Bizzarro world peaceniks who protest but don,t protest when they should protest. And a military that should protest as they are wielded like a cudgel by the most nefarious political class (Rebublicrats) that ever came down the pike.
‘In life timing is everything, in war it is even more important.’ IIRC, one of the British Generals said that. He had been relieved of command because Churchill took his troops and sent them to Greece. Rommel then kicked his arse. It couldn’t be Churchills fault, so he took the fall and handed it to the General.. General Wavell I think it was.
SO who do you suppose the Obomination has lined up for the fall on this one?
BTW, Where did the idea that you can’t hide in the desert come from? There is no historical data to support it. One must have a very narrow definition of ‘hide’ to believe that. In Desert Storm the Bear hid Thousands of Vehicles and almost half a million men. Look it up.
So, I’m clanking along in my T-72 and I see something in the sky ( It is VERY clear in that part of the world, The English call it the blue because it is so clear). So I stop and point my tube (gun) up at an angle and light the tin bucket of sand and diesel fuel I have wired to the engine cover. Thick black smoke curls up. The pilot 10 Km’s away going 1,000 KPH sees the smoke and doesn’t want to waste a $70,000 bomb on a burning tank. Am I hidden?
Both sides are using the same equipment. Both buy flags from the same factory. So just how does a pilot flying 600+ Kph tell the difference between the Ducks T-72 and the ‘rebels’ T-72? He doesn’t.
BTW, who are the rebels and why are we putting them in power? Who will we put in power when the rebels start killing the Duck’s backers. Are we going to just kill them ALL? How original.
Targeting is going to be a real problem. On the other hand, Navy pilots will get to practice thinking purple. On the ground, they will just kill anything that moves.
PGM is even worse. They go where they are programmed to and explode. Doesn’t matter what is there. Tank, 122mm D-30, cart full of firewood, mother and her 6 children. It’s all the same to the ‘droid.
ON a positive note, it will be highly entertaining watching the Obomination explain to his last loyal supporters why blowing up 10 $US mud huts with 250,000 US$ cruise missiles is a good idea. Or the first time that mud huts is full of Pre-schoolers and AL Jizzum shows the body parts all over the desert. Welcome to WAR.
It will be even more entertaining watching those that advocated war blaming the inevitable results on somebody else. Anybody else. Bush and Cheney will become popular among the left again.
I’m not a pacifist. I see nothing wrong with killing Muslims in wholesale lots. I feel the same about killing them as they feel about killing us. Killing is good, more is better, all is best.
MY questions are Why there, why now?
NATO says no troops
will set foot on Libyan soil.
Ronin move with stealth.
y’know, emotionally, this must be how the lefturds feel when they saw Georges Bush I and II deploying American troops.
just all wrong, wrong, wrong.
for the record, I wasn’t overjoyed with either Desert Storm, though I suppose in retrospect it was better that we did something of the sort, than if we had not. I wonder. a more friendly Iraq still facing off Iran militarily, might have been worth as much as Kuwait. and who knows, we wouldn’t have put our filthy kaffir boots on the holy sand of Saudi Arabia, and maybe Osama bin Laden would have found other hobbies.
Libya, the land of tribes:
http://hbdchick.wordpress.com/2011/02/21/libya-land-o-tribes/
“apparently, gaddafi was a master at pitting the tribes against one another. up until now.
so, the state of libya now is as it ever was — full of inbred tribes that are all looking out for themselves (not that there’s anything wrong with that! — but democracy ain’t gonna work well in such a place):
“Tribalism remains a key determinant in political allegiances in Libya. Neither oil wealth and modernizing influences nor Qadhafi’s revolution have altered the web of kinship-based loyalties that has characterized Libya’s domestic political scene for centuries. Libya’s tribes are arranged in a pyramidal lineage scheme of subtribal, clan, and family elements.”
So we are going to spend money we don’t have to help one set of in-bred cousin-marrying tribes with some of the highest rates of genetic birth defects on earth (due to all this cousin-marrying) overthrow the government of Kaddafy and his favored set of inbred cousin-marrying genetic defectives.
What could go wrong?
Stoi..
I can’t stop stupidity. Homer is everywhere.
But it stands to reason that if ground targets are bomb worthy logistics would be top of the list. Forget the tanks — go for trucks on the coastal road.
Rapid fire frigates would be ideal for the task.
Close up air support figures to be flat out impossible. The Revolution is so trigger happy that they”v shot down their own. It’s not worth the attempt.
There is a long run between Tripoli and Benghazi, and most of the road is so close to the sea one can see the Med as you motor along.
Everyone should keep in mind the maintenance statistics for Libyan sand: it wears out equipment at a tremendous tempo — something like five times as fast as the plains of Europe. This means that strikes against Daffy’s mechanic’s sheds are a priority.
Additionally, any ammo bunkers should be prioritized. When combined with the blockade the pressure may sway the Duck of Death that it’s time to wade off.
Tanks and such at the front are going to require anti-tank missiles in the hand of the Revolution. They could show up any day now.
Close co-ordination with the revolution figures to be problematic — so I can’t see traditional ground-air tactics working at all.
I’m not sure why we must keep Libya intact. What’s the downside of a fragmented Libya that gets absorbed into surrounding regimes? I thought the point of this Libya thing was a dry run for Iran. Doesn’t NATO need some practice before teaming up with Israel and the Arab League for the coming confrontation/de-nuclearization of Iran?
The Boy King won’t go anywhere near Iran so I think the reserve team has to see where they are at militarily and what they need to beef up. Hopefully they will be up to the Libyan task and the ones beyond.
A few questions.
Does NATO have leadership, European or American, that is willing to stay the course should things get rough in Libya (as it most certainly will)?
Once Gadaffi is removed from power, what’s next?
Is this going to come out like Iraq under George Bush, or Somallia under Bill Clinton?
KRB
27. bell curve
Why are we supporting the rebels?
I agree with those commenters who argue that there is a likelihood that Obama is not merely incompetent and bumbling, but is actively pursuing whatever policies, both domestic and foreign policies, which are calculated to do the maximum harm to American interests.
From the Huffington Post: Anti-American Extremists Among Libyan Rebels U.S. Has Vowed To Protect (hat tip neo-neocon)
What’s going to be interesting is the follow on food riots. Egypt will suffer most severely as they don’t have resources to buy on the open market, but no one will be exempted. I don’t understand why the US wants to get involved in a major humanitarian operation to feed people who hate us now and will hate us more later, regardless what we do. Keep out. Let the Europeans handle it as best they can. This is their idea, after all.
31/emrys
NATO says no troops
No, they’re just tourist groups
will set foot on Libyan soil
They’ll just tour the fields of oil
Ronin move with stealth
Then to drink Khadaffi’s health
Nice lob, emrys. Back at you. Tennis, anyone?
Whose turn is it to explain why we are so short on US Naval assets?
I’ve been pretty busy at work. Did I miss two months of congressional hearings and multiple votes authorizing the use of force?
I agree that Qaddafi leaving Libya is a good idea. Does anyone- Sarkozy, Cameron, Bambi- have a clue about the mission and goals of our North Africa operations? So we enforce a no fly zone. Then what? If Qaddafi leaves the scene, who replaces him?
At this point I’m starting to miss Bill Clinton.
Here’s a tinfoil hat theory: this war is about protecting British, French and Italian business contracts. Though why the Arab League (protector of democracies and defender of the innocent, from Morocco to Beirut and beyond) cares is beyond me.
This is NOT a NATO war, Germany is not participating etc.
The operation is a coalition of the Arab League States, US, France and the UK-other nations in NATO are merely allowing overflight and landing rights.
The first stage is to take out the Libyan integrated AA and C2 capability by US and UK.
The next phase will be destroying hostile Libyan planes by France and UK with US AWACs providing targeting.–this will be brief and followed by longer term suppression by Arab League assets–primarily Egypt, KSA and Jordan.
The no drive zones will be enforced by Arab League assets and then by boots on the ground in eastern Libya by Egypt with token presence by Qatar, Jordan, UAE and KSA.
We do not like coordinated air action by more than 3 actors–ground force coordination will be a simple matter for the Arab League actors
–mainly Egypt, Jordan and KSA.
This whole operation will change the dynamics of MENA dramatically–the Arab League nations have not been cohesive since the days of Nasser
That they are is alliance with US, UK and France is a major game changer.
Interesting that Germany only offered to hold coats
–a cynic might say that Germany wants to keep its good graces with Iran.
But the Arab and particularly the Gulf oil states are clearly now in firm alignment with the US, UK and France moving forward–the Petreaus Doctrine
There is a time for light verse, but this is serious. Did Charles Martel know that the war would still be going on 1279 years later? He did not. Nor can we know how much longer it will go on. But one thing is clear. It is a war to the death, because the Mohammedans will it so. It did not end with Lepanto, it did not end at the Gates of Vienna, and it will not end until one side or the other is reduced to rubble, so crushed as never to rise for a thousand years. We are in the beginning stages of what is just another chapter in the ongoing war between Islam and the rest of the world. They see the West as weakened by two world wars and multiculturalism, and are taking their shot. It is not an accident of history that we are now or have very recently been engaged in conflict with three different Muslim countries, four if you count Pakistan, five if you count Iran, and I do. It is not a question of do we have the will to see it through for the next five or ten years, but of whether we have the will to end it forever, for if we do not end it forever, it will go on for another 1279 years. And one day the Gates of Vienna may be breached.
Human shields
mill around.
As shadows cross the floor.
Heavy is the head of state.
Walt, as you can see, I’m using my very hazy crystal ball and I figure Khaddafi will be taken out shortly at a very personal level. My guess is, he has no friends and there are strong Arab interests in seeing him go down. Besides, its the web and I don’t need any stinking facts, just an a opinion, and like the old weatherman, if I’m wrong, no one will remember, and if I’m right, every one will figure I am prescient.
Human shields mill around
Fearful on the killing ground
As shadows cross the floor
And horsemen cross the Moor
Heavy is the head of state
Who can only stand and wait
Would it be a stretch to call Khaddafi a Moor? And wouuld his own horsemen cross him? Or is he Hamlet?
Perhaps I am too optimistic, but I don’t think Qadaffi’s troops are particularly strong nor particularly dedicated. If we stiffen the rebels with some arms and advisers, we may get a win fairly soon.
Now, as far as MB concerns go–they are fair enough. But the real subtext, I think (and this explains why so many Euro nations are stepping up with aircraft–from Belgium to Spain to Denmark) is immigration. The Euros need to make sure they have adequately friendly nations on the Med. shores to stop the boatloads of illegals from departing for Europe. If I’m correct, look for at least economic sanctions soon against Turkey, which is playing the “immigration as weapon” game against the Euros.
http://stopturkey.blogspot.com/2011/02/turkey-using-illegal-immigration-as.html
I thought they voted for a No Fly Zone. So why they shooting tanks? Those wily Libyans must have some killer mods on those T-55s to get them in the air. I guess they are going for a rapid, Shock-And-Awe style regime toppling. And no doubt, the Libyan people would greet us with flowers. It would be something if Obama didn’t stumble along and get us ensared in a tar baby, after all his heated rhetoric vs Bush.
I’m having Bosnia flashbacks. Looks like once again we’re getting called in to be the muscle for what should be a European problem. Fine. But a little recognition from Europe and the Left that this kind of deal is a two-way street would be nice. I can dream, can’t I? I’m not heading down to the National Mall to burn the American flag and so forth, making a screaming ass of myself, when I wonder how we got from point A to point B here so, well, dang unilaterally, into a regime-change agenda.
To say it’s a humanitarian crisis isn’t enough, after Congo, Sudan, heck, Japan these days. Or the US-Mexico border, or 8 Mile in Detroit. Find Man, you’ve found a humanitarian crisis.
It is still not clear to me just whose side we are on in Libya. We are certain as to who we are against, but what do we really know about the rebel forces that are against Kaddafi? Would we be really be replacing him with anything better than he is? Once again, the question is not whose side we are against, it is whose side are we for. I find it more than just a trifle disturbing that there is little or nothing said in the media about the political and ideological bents of the rebels who are opposing him.
The old saw about “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” is a bunch of crap. The example of Hitler vs. Stalin in WWII illustrates that perfectly. Stalin was never our friend.
Once again, in regards to intervention in Libya, who are we fighting for?
Like I mentioned at NRO concerning Mr. McCarthy objection to piling on in Libya, Mr. McCarthy wish for the Muslims to do it themselves like many here do, But my caution in this is do we really want as Mr. McCarthy points out that the combined Muslim armies are very modern and very capable, do we want to encourage their “getting” along? (Think Caliphate) really? it takes time and experience to learn to coordinate and use large modern military assets and we want to invite a Death Cult to do exactly that, learn to coordinate and use their modern military? Folks, there’s always been a world “Policeman” and they were the dominate military force, so it go’s do we want a decent, good policeman or a corrupt and bad one? there will be a dominate force so you have to say if it ain’t the US who? if your going to rip me a new one you need to state what country you prefer over the US or otherwise you should just shut up!
Walt:
Thanks for the exchange.
You’re a master of the craft.
Your flame burns brightly.
CharlesWhite:
if your going to rip me a new one you need to state what country you prefer over the US or otherwise you should just shut up!
Okay, then. Good night.
Crazy ideas like the new Caliphate or the greater Israel or that Elvis has not left the building are all absurd.
Gen Petreaus has worked to build the Arab League as an asset to American interests in MENA.
His strategy is now succeeding in spades.
The Arab League will develop into a key US asset like ECHELON.
The UK, France will do the heavy lifting in resolving the issues in MENA moving forward–in alignment with America interests–and our common interests.
CharlesWhite…
It is impossible for Arabs to leave tribalism. Hence, any concern that a new Caliphate will be effective against the West is unfounded.
Any attempt will follow the Nasser dissolution: tribalism must triumph.
When asked who we are supporting here, we must say the rebels, the fighters against tyranny, and for what? The yearning to be free? I’ll be damned if Obama hasn’t run smack into the face of the Bush Doctrine. How inconvenient!
He’s going to seek an aristocratic out, naturally. This is a technical move, on humanitarian grounds, against one bad prince. This is Diplomacy, motivated by a Bismarckian sense of RealPolitick. Bush took his argument to the streets, and challenged the man there on if he wanted to be free. That made him an idealistic, cowboy fool. Obama arrives in Tripoli through parlors in Versailles. He’s a statesman!
This is going to be played as a managed affair in the hands of those fools who use the word “modalities”. That’s the worst crowd on earth to listen to in a case like this, anymore. With luck the Libyan regime will fall tomorrow, to be replaced by a hitherto unseen tribe of Enlightened Philosopher Kings – Libya’s best kept secret! They’ll work with Washington & Brussels to make sure every new step they take is firm.
The way it it sounds from the briefing is that some European countries wanted the “no-fly-zone” (or something) but the US wasn’t willing to take the lead. But the distribution of capabilities required that the USN kick in the door by taking out most of the air defense installations so that the Europeans could operate in a permissive environment.
So they split the difference and got the Fleet to blast the Libyan air defense to smithereens in exchange for an undertaking to subsequently assume the lead. In other words, “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.”
As earlier noted on this site, the operation will require “hundreds” of aircraft, some of which will be US F-16s, although the public has been solemnly assured that most of the fighters will be provided by France and maybe some from the UK. That’s going to take some doing and will get really expensive if it goes on for months and months.
None of this sturm and drang makes any sense if the end game is to establish a simple “no fly zone” in order to overthrow Khadaffi. Whatever restraint the diplomats sought to convey by limiting themselves to a “no fly zone” has been cast away at the outset by these considerable strikes.
The logic of any military operation would be to up the tempo and build on the shock of the strike, not to back off and give the Duck of Death time to recover. This is like blowing down the door only to send in a violinist playing Vivaldi through the smoking doorway to sooth the occupant’s nerves. The time for suavity, you might say, was past.
Therefore the goal is not probably not to overthrow Khadaffi but to negotiate with him. The structure of the operation as stated suggests the allies are not going to use enough force to crush the Duck, but only enough force to keep him from completely totaling the rebels. They are going to be used as a bargaining chip; a kind of option in being. The rebels are not — not yet anyway — being groomed as Khadaffi’s successors. Nice, right? Real low-down, stab-in the back diplomacy, if the thesis is right.
The problem is with an Irishman called Murphy. If Murphy shows up then the Europeans will find that either the “no fly zone” will not be enough to stop Khadaffi or he’ll stall endlessly. Or maybe the rebels will cotton on to the whole thing and do a deal with the Duck themselves. If the Europeans don’t get their exit scenario, the whole thing will become an expensive fiasco. All the Duck has to do is hang in there and let them fly back and forth from Malta and Corsica while occasionally pulling their chain.
Once they’re stuck in that groove, they’ll have to go back to the well and get the Fleet to push the ball forward, the ball they didn’t want to carry over the goal line when they had the chance.
I hope they’re lucky Khadaffi hands over whatever he has to hand over in exchange for a one way trip to Venezuela. But if not … well that could be a problem. “If you’re going to take Vienna, take Vienna,” Napoleon once said. Let’s hope the French still remember that axiom. And Hillary too.
“there’s always been a world “Policeman” and they were the dominate military force”
Evidence please!
Not ripping anything, old or new, but the idea of the world policeman is a myth promoted by the MIC to justify their ongoing robbery of the US Taxpayer. The world got along fine for about 4 or 5 BILLION years without a policeman. City states rose and fell without a policeman. Empires grew out of the more successful city-sates. They were mostly Naval powers. Not a policeman in sight.
The concept of world’s policeman came about because of the collapse of the League of Nations. The 4 horsemen were released and a significant part of the great powers populations were killed. So the winners tried to give law a chance and the UN was created to act as a fig leaf for the great powers. Law only exists if their is a policeman to put the collar on the bad guys. Since the policeman is arresting bad guys, he is a good guy, right?
That is all bullshit.
Great Powers act as great powers. The ‘policeman’ looks the other way. EVERY time. The policeman isn’t above mugging an old lady or two if it’s near the end of the month and they need money.
Louis XIV had inscribed on the barrels of his cannons in Latin ” The final argument of Kings” So it was and still is.
A portion of the establishment wants the head of the Duck of Death. Many reasons for that but none that will persuade those doing the killing and dying that it is all worthwhile. So they pony up a sad story about innocents dying and it’s time to ride to the rescue. Well, innocents die every day, in numbers. Libya isn’t even in the top 10 so we know the innocents dying story is a lie. OIL?
Maybe but Sudan has OIL, as does Iran. Are the humans dying there not so innocent?
How about N. Korea? More innocents will die there while you are reading BC then have died in Libya the last couple of weeks.
No, something stinks here. There is no rational reason for the USA to spend good money killing 3rd world tribesmen in Libya.
The dogs of war are loose, the 4 horsemen gallop across the sands. It is to late to stop it but we can remember who pushed for this and when it all turns to shit, we can remember them and make sure they no longer have to power to murder thousands of people. IT would be nice to see Kerry, Liberman and MCCain on trial for war crimes. Real nice. Send your policeman after them. OH wait. They are the policeman!
So now the question is; “Does the world really need rouge cops?”
Nassar lost that war with Israel, but the coalition he put together –the Arab League –survived the loss of the war, if in weakened aspect –and Nassar died of a natural heart attack, in office, years later. Every Arab state was at the funeral, but no First World state attendees, only the Russian premier Kosygin (?wasn’t it?) from the Second World. So really, he’s not strictly a symbol of Arab failure, i think not so in Araby.
It’s not quite enough to discover how confusing this alignment is –we need to figure out where the opacity is coming from. This was far too Blithe-spirited a launch of 114 cruise missile.
Had Russia and China led BRIC + Germany in a security-council veto, things would be clear enough maybe –but the simple abstention is neither an objection nor an endorsement.
CharlesWhite ,
With your gift for announcing your arrival your calendar must be crowded with invitations.
Walt,
… it will go on for another 1279 years. And one day the Gates of Vienna may be breached.
It took 817 years from the Battle of The Yarmuk until the fall of Constantinople.
Why are the dictators of the Arab League now against Khadaffy?
1. They are running to be ahead of their own mobs, they really want another conflict between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah to distract their natives.
2. They are bullies and thieves at heart who kick when someone is down and hope to pick up stray loot.
3. At some time QuackyDaffy has tried to kill most of them, or they had to endure a three hour lecture without even an invite to the Bunga-bunga party after.
Obama is using up a significant chunk of the US arsenal. I believe that the Tomahawks are not being replaced. If a real war were to break out we would want those bullets. Some may go tin foil hatted and call that a feature of the operation.
“The UK, France will do the heavy lifting in resolving the issues in MENA moving forward–in alignment with America interests–and our common interests.”
YO, victor, I don’t know what you put in your kool-aid but you should cut the dose by about 90%
Charles #50. NO State. None, NADA, ZIP, zilch.
bl@57:
Weren’t the abstentions at the UN just a way of saying they weren’t going to get in the way. Get in the way of what? Maybe Libya is a secondary objective. What is a common factor for all the actors in this Libyan exercise? Well, fear of Iran comes to mind. What if the primary objective is down the road in Iran? Who knows?
wretchard,
Murphy was named Saddam Hussein. If Ghaddafi really has large brass ones and a sense of humor he will have someone propose an “Oil for Food” program to care for his suffering people.
“If you’re going to take Vienna, take Vienna”
The Old Guard always found the Corsican too coarse.
While the Modern Mini-Mes of Metternich might lack the light touch of Vivaldi wily old cutthroats from Moscow and Beijing can play them like a Stradivarius.
This looks like a clusterf*ck of the first order.
If we really just wanted to get rid of Daffy, we could send in a Special Forces or SAS team to assassinate him. Problem solved.
But “world leaders” tend to blanch at that sort of thing. I wonder why?
BFtP/58, Obama is using up a significant chunk of the US arsenal –exactly –firing it off into the desert, at the end of several clangingly atonal out-of-place lachrymorse speeches by he and Hill about all the unspeakable atrocities that Kaddafi might do to the Libyan people.
They’re using up the latest gen, the loitering missiles that circle awhile sending back a picture, waiting for a signal from the screen watchers “ok, machine hit THAT thing”. Against fixed AA emplacements sitting in the open next to the sea, as far as i can tell. How many of those do we have? Did someone, possibly in a thickly accented English devoid of articles, suggest he use ‘em up?
Meanwhile:
http://www.bing.com/search?q=russia+to+spend+700+billion+on+new+weapons&form=IE8SRC&src=IE-SearchBox
***
“The Dollar and the US military are like Romeo and Juliet –they must die together for one to die at all.”
–Barack Obama, overheard in dork alley
***
wc/60; but, failing to use the veto is about the same thing as a yea vote. A yea with an asterisk. i can only interpret it as “we don’t care that much for Kaddafi, but do not mistake that for an endorsement of toppling Assd or Achmadinejad”.
IOW, Russia and China were saying “we do intend to support other dictators –such as ourselves, for example.”
Has a strong appearance of collusion between the two vote blocs to topple Kaddafi while covering the erstwhile anti-Iraq war Obama against pressure to be consistant with this new “dictator vs oppressed peoples who might suffer unspeakable atrocities” doctrine.
Esp since with Assad and Achmadinejad, there’s no “might” about that suffering unspeakable atrocities thing, we see it on the TV.
58. Blast From the Past
Obama is using up a significant chunk of the US arsenal. I believe that the Tomahawks are not being replaced. If a real war were to break out we would want those bullets. Some may go tin foil hatted and call that a feature of the operation.
Yes, I’ll go there. It seems that recent Democrat Presidents like to expend expensive munitions for no real result, while at the same time shrinking the size and capability of the U.S. military going forward.
@61 Blast from the Past ~ “If Ghaddafi really has large brass ones and a sense of humor he will have someone propose an “Oil for Food” program to care for his suffering people.”
That was good – of course you do realize the UN would give it to him in a heartbeat.
Speaking of wily old cutthroats in Moscow and Beijing and the music they make, does anyone else have the feeling they abstained just to see what Obama (or should I say the three weird sisters who are actually running the show) would do? And perhaps saw all this coming, even counted on it? The only way that vote makes sense is that they wanted this to happen. I can’t help thinking of Afghanistan – how we helped the mujahadeen against the Soviets and wound up with the Taliban and their al Qaeda houseguests.
What’s the mission anyway? Does anyone know? The CinC doesn’t. He’s phoning it in from Rio. No, Brother Leader is going to come out of this smelling like a rose (for a while anyway), and so is the Muslim Brotherhood (for longer). And after they kill him, (and let’s face it, nobody else is going to), they’ll rehabilitate him as a martyr. Heads they win, tails we lose.
btw this is the 8th anniversary of OIF – I only realized it after seeing this
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/US/03/19/iraq.anniversary.protests/
Here are two filters through which I tend to see everything the “Resident” does.
1. Everything (yes, everything) he does is designed (yes, on purpose) to weaken the United States and reduce us to just an ordinary middle sized country, economically, militarily, diplomatically, even culturally.
So what Blast said at #58 in the final paragraph makes a lot of sense.
2. He wants to be reelected so he can finish the job of transforming America. Therefore he wants to leave as few finger prints as he can on any decision that might come back to haunt him. Thus he lets Pelosi write ObamaCare and Sarkozy take care of the Duck.
Walt at #44 said, “And one day the Gates of Vienna may be breached.”
Wretchard at #55 said, “Therefore the goal is not probably not to overthrow Khadaffi but to negotiate with him. The structure of the operation as stated suggests the allies are not going to use enough force to crush the Duck, but only enough force to keep him from completely totaling the rebels. They are going to be used as a bargaining chip; a kind of option in being.”
Well, I think the purpose the “Resident” is pursuing is simply to deplete all sides without conclusive results. If the US does not step up, France and friends will probably not be able to finish the job. This will make the West look weaker and will erode any resolve to act in the future.
In what I understand to be the Arab mind, even crushing defeats are recorded in their history as victories — such as Egypt vs. Israel in 1967 and 1973. So a stalemate or even a loss that takes months or years will most likely be seen in that part of the world as a victory too.
But here’s a contrary thought, just to preserve a sliver of optimism. If American indecisiveness and passivity finally persuades the rest of the world for their need for a strong America willing to take leadership, perhaps the next Administration will have an easier time and a freer hand than we did in Iraq. (I don’t really believe that, but I’ll sleep a bit better tonight because I wrote it.)
58/BFTP
Ah, the Yarmuk river. Things would’ve been different had Belisarius been alive. Think about it: had the Byzantines won Christian North Africa might never have become Muslim. The hinges of history.
It goes without saying that any adverse outcome will be America’s fault. The trick is to make it George Bush’s fault.
I think we have a pretty good history of replacing spent munitions with newer models. Raytheon lobbyists are probably popping the champagne about now. Have to call my friend in Monday morning, see if he represents any of the supply chain for Tomahawks, if so he can buy lunch. In fact if we’re using them, maybe we’d better replace them twice over. The new model will have a new feature, they can be redirected in flight by posting new targets to their facebook page!
Events have a way of taking on a life of their own, the Resident and Hildabeast may be carried away by the tide, that’s if Gaddafi hangs around – which I think he will not.
I have some doubt that GHWB really ever planned to attack Iraq, he just wanted the buildup to scare Saddam (and distract from Neil being prosecuted for the S&L scandals), but Colin Powell and the brass built things up so far, they simply had to be used.
Maybe we have a new precedent (sic), every time there’s a crisis Obama will leave the country and Hillary will order an attack on something.
walt/67;
“For want of a nail, the shoe was lost; For want of the shoe, the horse was lost; For want of the horse, the rider was lost; For want of the rider, the battle was lost; For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost; And all for the want of a nail.”
…old proverb, Shakespeare had it in mind with the unhorsed Richard III, with his Yorkists in retreat and the Lancastrian forces of Henry Tudor bearing down at the Battle of Bosworth Field, crying out “A Horse! A Horse! My Kingdom for a Horse!”
…bringing to an end the reign of the House of York and the beginning of the reign of the House of Lancaster. To lose our realm, there’ll be no need for anyone to shoe the horse poorly, Obama will have thrown away the nails.
There are some people in Europe who know a thing or two about the crowd in Benghazi
http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=126173
After the fall of Saddam few expected how long and difficult Iraq would become. The opposite will happen here. The victory will be short and decisive. The duck has no stomach for a real fight and few loyal supporters. His self preservation will outweigh his craziness and sober him quickly. There is no Shia/Sunni divide, there is no major al queda presence, there will be no foreign fighters. This is the Bush doctrine steamrolling Obama although dear leader will benefit greatly from its success.
Of course it will still end poorly with an anti US regime.
I think Sarkozy is having his Bush moment and the fact that America is not leading the fight is what throws off so many.
You go Moammar! Long live national sovereignty – the west is now fair game since it’s supported Al Qaeda terrorists vs. Qaddafi…
Therefore the goal is not probably not to overthrow Khadaffi but to negotiate with him. – Wretchard
Between “winning”, “negotiating”, or “losing”, the air strikes and European CAP may provide time for one other outcome. Khadaffi’s Army, Air Force, and mercenary forces may option for a surer survival option than facing down the RAF, French, USN, Egyptian, and other forces suddenly arrayed against them. They may solve the problem by removing Khadaffi from the controls, and negotiate a more graceful exit for themselves with the Rebels.
Time has not been on Khadaffi’s side. Think of this as a chess match. He pressed his immediate, tactical advantage and attempted a knock-out blow, e.g. in chess terms, “simplify and trade down”, swapping piece for piece and attacking the enemy directly. Since that tactic was not unsuccessful (i.e. time ran out), as Wretchard suggests, Khadaffi will now do what every chess player does when down a major piece or two, i.e. complicate the game and block, confuse, and delay the enemy.
I’d bet that main goal of the “Allies” is to provide time for someone in Khadaffi inner circle to take him out. Knowing the French, their agents are probably in Africa right now offering the bounty. It’s the most cost-effective, low-risk, “European” solution out of the set of bad options.
Myself, I’m ambivalent about the Arab revolution(s). Since the price of Arab democracy is always paid in U.S. body bags and national treasure, and since the only government system that the U.S. elites seem to support for the Arab states is Islamic/Sharia law based, our kids are quite plainly dying for Islamic oil and the promotion of Islam in general. The analogy between post-war Japan and the Islamic nations is fairly clear to me. We helped Japan rebuild, and required Japan renounce National Shintoism and the divine Emperor. We should stipulate to the Arab’s (and Persians) that the cost for U.S. assistance is to renounce Islam as a political system, Sharia law as national legal system, and support a Constitution with a guaranteed Bill of Rights identical to our own. America may have it’s faults, but the original American constitutional government is still the best hope for mankind.
Other than that, if the U.S.A. is compelled to act as an imperial power, we might as well take territory, seize resources, and use the proceeds to pay for our “empire” as well as perhaps, to secure a better life for the inhabitants. However, when American’s do the dying and pay the freight, then American interests come first, period.
The last 30 to 50 years have been just nuts. American leaders have consistently hamstrung this nation, forced the cost in human lives on our kids in uniform, realized little gain, while passing on the bill to the American taxpayers.
At the VERY LEAST, American needs to develop all available national resources to become energy independent, as well as resource independent in other areas, as much as is possible. The argument against the environmental-Marxist-Greens is simple: We’re damn tired of dying for and paying for your fantasy world. When you stop oil, nuclear, coal, oil-shale, and other economical energy development, YOU COMMIT FUTURE GENERATIONS OF AMERICAN KIDS to the crucible of war. You enslave and burden future generations with eternal indebtedness.
This hell is not what the Founding Fathers intended. It’s not the freedom so many have died to guarantee. And, we cavalierly throw it away with the stroke of a pen on an Executive Order, on law after law, on regulation after regulation, with no consideration of the consequences.
I don’t give a rats ass about Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, or any of the other useless sh*t-holes of the Middle East. The truth is that the majority, probably a vast majority of the peoples of those countries not only hate America and Americans, but they wish or actively plan for our demise. The Arab is the happy Palestinian father hoisting his daughter on his shoulders, a picture of pure joy and love, as he hands her candy to celebrate the butchery of an innocent Israeli family including babies. THAT’s the Arabs’. THAT’s the majority of them.
I’m tired of this charade. I’m tired of seeing the dead Marines shipped back to my home town, for what, a greater Islamic Caliphate? Because that’s what the majority of the Afghans support, the Pakistani’s, Iraqi’s, the whole bunch want. Hell, the left-wing, i.e. Democrats in America see a society built on Sharia law as a legitimate goal.
No more. Let’s let Libya go to hell. To the rebels, I say I’m sorry for your loses. It’s sad. I’m sorry for those who will starve in North Africa, and probably other parts of Africa. Maybe we’ll even send some free America grain your way so that you can sell off half and relabel the other half with the “Red Crescent”. But sorry, we’re not dying for you. We’re not rebuilding your oil industry. We’re not creating jobs for Arabs and Libyans now that our kids will still be paying for 30 years from now.
The politicians “think” they understand how pissed American’s are. If they truly understood, they wouldn’t be planning for the next election. They’d be looking their own spider hole to climb into.
Let’s do a national “reset” until we once again have leaders worthy of the American people. Bring ‘em all home – all of our uniformed forces. Close down the overseas bases. End the American led wars. Either garrison them in the USA and U.S. territories, or plant the American flag on the territories our kids bleed for. Let’s shut it all down until we have a less confused American government, one that understands America’s interests and makes protection of them top priority.
Old Salt
bl@63:
You may be right about the abstentions not being a door opener for addressing a nuclear Iran. None of us know what is going on but it does feel like something is out of kilter here.
You say “Has a strong appearance of collusion between the two vote blocs to topple Kaddafi while covering the erstwhile anti-Iraq war Obama against pressure to be consistant with this new “dictator vs oppressed peoples who might suffer unspeakable atrocities” doctrine.”
I agree with the collusion between the two voting blocs, except I’m not sure what the reason is. I don’t believe that anyone is covering the Obama rear end because I don’t think anyone gives a tinker’s toss about Obama. I think this is old fashioned diplomacy – there are no noble principles on display here – just temporary alliances for perceived mutual advantage.
What puzzles me is that it all seems too much fuss for a clown like Khadafi or for the motley crew of sketchy rebels. The mission/mutual advantage in Libya has never been defined and the ‘might do nasty things’ excuse given by Robo-Hillary is laughable. Libya just doesn’t seem that important to me. That makes me wonder if something else is important.
Hercule Poirot would look at the Libya action and ask “what is the motive?” Beats me.
“I’m tired of this charade. I’m tired of seeing the dead Marines shipped back to my home town, for what, a greater Islamic Caliphate? Because that’s what the majority of the Afghans support, the Pakistani’s, Iraqi’s, the whole bunch want. Hell, the left-wing, i.e. Democrats in America see a society built on Sharia law as a legitimate goal.”
Bingo. I’m always amazed- and annoyed- to see the US described as an “empire”. Real empires don’t urinate away their blood and treasure making life better for the conquered without any attempt at gain for themselves.
More accurate to say the US is the world’s bitch. We are expected to solve our “allies” military problems- e.g. Yugoslavia, Iraq- provide a market for the world to sell their products- e.g. China, Japan, everyone- leave our energy resources in the ground- which gives OPEC a nice higher price- and generally stand ready in case we are required to pony up for some new demand.
Now, we have been dragged into a new conflict- by of all nations- France. Meanwhile, the president is in Brazil promising to provide them a nice new market for their energy exports. And I still remember seeing Hillary Clinton promise to defend Vietnam from China. This would be the same Vietnamese regime- by the way- that murdered millions for the crime of being associated with the country that pays Hillary a salary.
This is insanity. The United States is something like five percent of humanity. There just aren’t enough of us to save the world from chaos or poverty.
We should stop trying.
“The major NATO advantage in this campaign is that they control the sea. Khadaffi can be strangled by denying him arms, ammunition, and military supplies, all of which can come in quantity only by sea. But its effects will take months to be decisive.”
Sure, this is called a “Naval Blockade” and it’s an even greater act of war. This makes perfect sense in a country like Libya where everything the Libyans need to survive comes from the sea, which is why the population lives along the coastline of that country. But would Obama, the man who won the Nobel Peace Prize, institute a blockade that would strangle a country economically, thereby harming the very people he is supposedly trying to help? Dream on.
And then you would always get that U.N. version of a Naval Blockade, where they always say that “food and medicine” would be allowed to get through so as not to “harm” the people. Well, then what’s the point? The very essence of a naval blockade is to starve a regime of everything so that they will give up. It rarely works, but if you want it to work it has to be a complete blockade that stope the flow of EVERYTHING into that country. If not, you will get another Hussein-like “oil for food” blockade that stopped almost nothing from getting into the country and allowed the dictator to continue the fight.
A total air war will not win the war, but it won’t lose it, either. It will probably end the war with both forces in place (as in Kosovo or Bosnia) and you will have a fractured country, with Gaddafi ruling a smaller country in the west and the rebels basing themselves in Benghazi. The situation would stabilize over time, but unless there is a direct assault against Tripoli, the rebels will not win.
Also, we do not know how many men the rebels have lost since Gaddafi’s drive to Benghazi. Were they all killed, or did they give up and simply disappear back into the civilian population? This is an important point, because it will determine whether or not the rebels can eventually gain enough support to mount a drive against Gaddafi in Tripoli. If the rebels do NOT have enough forces, where do they expect to get these ground troops? Do they expect NATO to do the fighting for them?
You see, friends, we are going to get sucked deeper and deeper into this mess. I guess fighting two wars in the Middle East wasn’t good enough for Obama. He had to make it three.
It seems that democrats like Obama and Clinton before him conduct war as a PR event. The first rule is that no American must die. Ever. (Those flag-draped coffins look bad for the administration, which is why the left demanded publishing pictures of them when Bush was president).
Next, there must be lots of explosions (for the 24-hour news shows). It matters not a whit that the munitions expended were militarily efficacious or not; Americans just love to watch fireworks.
Finally, there must be plenty of “freedom” talk, as in “We are doing this to free the heroic people of (fill in the blank)”, and “We must rid the world of the tyrant (fill in the blank) so people can be free”, and “We support the freedom-loving people of (fill in the blank)”.
We must realize that war is no longer designed for “national security” (although the term is histrionically bandied about). It is for public consumption and political advantage. Just as Big Brother understood the need for an enemy (Emmanuel Goldstein and the war against Eurasia/Eastasia) for the public to focus their hatred on, so, too, do the democrats understand that the destruction of America must remain under the public radar.
I don’t get it: is it Nato doing this or France? If it’s France leading Nato, how did that happen? France left Nato in a huff because it didn’t want the U.S. giving orders to its troops in 1966. It only got back in 15 months ago, December 2009. After 33 years of standing aloof, how has it come to be the unquestioned leader? Does that somehow what they think of the American leadership?
This is a classic “too little, too late”. If Obama had acted with Tripoli was in sight of the rebels we’d be talking reconstruction. As it is, any military force, given time to regroup, plan and complete staging operations will be at a long duration force subject only to the rule of logistics. Think WWI. Without boots on the ground, the only option for a relatively quick ouster is the Egyptian army under the auspices of the Arab League. There is no good outcomes for the West and Obama at this point.
As to humanitarian… gimme a break. France and Britain want a piece of Libyan business and Libyan oil, with French agents on the ground organizing all this months and months ago. It is neocolonialism at its pettiest.
I don’t recall France being humanitarian about Iraq. Even now, with Christian minority being hounded out of their homeland.
Old Salt (74), except for the “bring them all home” I agree, But! like the answer to “stoicheion” (56) we don’t live in the 5th century anymore and our economy runs on “WORLD TRADE”! so if you have the smarts to figure it out why you need a “World Policeman” when you have a “World trading” economy then you will have arrived! Like I said I agree with “Old Salt” on much of his statement, but being a World Policeman does not mean we poke a finger in every fight we just keep the biggest stick and make sure the good guys stay on top. Let’s see, what’s that saying…. All that evil needs to win is for the good men to stand by and do nothing…. Something like that
Slightly off topic and I realize that it most likely will not happen (call this extreme wishful thinking, if you like), but if there ever is a leak of al-Bama’s past life (e.g., b.c., college records, film clips we haven’t seen yet, etc.) it bound to come at a time like this. If it does occur, it’ll be leaked by some “loose cannon” prog who definitely resides on the far side of the reservation.
Well, to be making war on the basis of what the enemy king might do to the rebels, we waited an awful long time after hostilities broke out, time those atrocities would’ve surfaced and made the case. As far as i can tell, there hasn’t been any reliable reportage of that actually happening –tho plenty of time was given for it –thus the Obam and Hill declarations had to resort to the crazy-making ‘what-might-happen’ sentences used in establishing the condition of justified war.
Also, where combatants are in contact esp with civilians, air attack could very well provoke the ‘unspeakable atrocities that might happen’, as it stops neither midnight knife nor noonday AK47 during the 23.5 hours under clear skies, and the air attack will even raise any nascent bloodlust, the lowering of which is the stated war goal.
These things that don’t make clear sense have to rest on the words of Obama, which condensed are “we declare we can war to protect the people when the government is hurting them”.
Outside of the doctrinally-invisible states of Syria and Iran, where is this happening? Bahrain. What happens to KSA sovereignty if the anti-Kaddafi coalition (don’t call it NATO without Germany in) starts threatening the govt of Bahrain?
Wouldn’t the action against Kaddafi be already juicing the Bahraini rebels?
Bahrain’s intimate familial associate KSA after all is the center force and price-establishing swing producer of OPEC, and the reservoir of a fifth of global proven reserves –the oil-power of Islam.
The Bahraini terrain situation is the same as Libya’s –all sea coast where the people are –and Subotai reported yesterday –we could search for more detail –the %th fleet, based in Bahrain, has steamed out to sea. Also i noted yesterday that the Kuwaiti navy was enroute to Bahrain, to help protect the allied Bahrain.
Wazzup?
“But the the worst thing they can do is let the fighting drag on, because it will almost inevitably lead to a humanitarian crisis in Libya.”
Who cares?
If Muslim factions wish to slaughter each other, I wish them success in their joint venture.
That’s 5th fleet –typo.
Wouldn’t it be crazy for the Obam to use the USN to destabilize USA’s powerful ally KSA? This would hurt Israel terribly, too, as KSA stabilizes Araby in a way very critical to Israel’s strategic position.
What are we watching here?
Yesterday news reported 45 Bahrainis killed by govt snipers. This is pretext in line with the Libya pretext. KSA’s oil-production facilities are scattered far and wide across the desert, practically undefendable on a tactical basis. Guerrilla attacks on those facilities, in an overall pressurization of the KSA royal family, would set a condition where the most able power in the region, the USN, could be set against the Dollar, and with $7 gasoline, against the USA itself –against the very USN performing the humanitarian mission, protecting the people against the govt, and so forth.
As a matter of fact, we are already seeing a penumbra of such a situation –why would the Kuwaiti navy make such a statement of distress otherwise? The rebels have no navy, they’re the urban shiite Bahraini citizens themselves.
“Ultimately the rebels will need to be built up by Western training and advice to be capable of the offensive.”
Now where have I heard this before?
The Egyptian military ought to use its tanks to protect Libyans. The U S has supplied Egypt with M1A1 tanks that kicked the butt of Saddam’s T-72s. The Navy is supposed to have some amphibious assets in the Med, so load up the tanks and land them where they can set up a buffer zone in the desert between Qaddafi on the west and the oil infrastructure and freedom fighters on the east.
Showing support for the cause of freedom ought to win the approval of Egypt’s democracy movement. Otherwise, what good are those M1s beside decoration?
So far no war has been won with air power alone. Troops on the ground are required to take and hold territory. Are the rebels up to the challenge? If not then what? Does NATO, including the U.S. commit ground forces? Who makes that decision and when? Did you feel the earth move under your feet.
By the way NATO can’t afford to loose this one, and hope to remain viable.
This is a war of choice. But, that’s OK, it’s Progressive OIL being fought for!
Agree with 43. Victor.
If we figure out a way not to succumb to PC/Multiculturalism, Islamism/Sharia will be a mere fly in the ointment Walt, but I’m not particularly optimistic.
VDH has done a wonderful job of chronicling the fall and eminent demise of California.
How many states are following suit?
Russia and the Arab League have both chimed in now, Russia wants us to quit killing civilians, and the Arab League says this is beyond what it signed on for.
Result, Russia is the good guy we used to be, and the critical fig leave, or date-palm frond, is slipping off.
-on #86, a correction, 45 Yemenis, not Bahrainis –but, no change to thesis, just wrong support anecdote. However, the Libya Doctrine applies just as well to Yemen, the coastal terrain facts, the KSA proximity facts, the ‘govt causing the people to need foreign-supplied humanitarian aid protection’ political meme fact.
Obama is a failure. We took Baghdad in 3 weeks and this a@@@ can’t take Ghadaffy out
My last overseas tour was with a NATO command, and if things haven’t changed, NATO will not do anything unless America leads the way, supplies the manpower and equipment. We used to say that the acronym NATO stood for “Nobody At The Office”. Of coarse with this great fearless leader we have today things might change, lots of missiles some drones and then turn tail and run. The Russians are already starting to complain, that by itself should break this coalition’s back.
#82 “bring em all home”
Being a former Naval Officer, I am well aware of the the importance of world trade, and the Navy’s role in securing the international “sea lanes of communication. My point is that we have had national leaders in the past 30 years willing to commit military men to battle and national treasure to “nation buildling” in situations working against American interest. Until we have leaders who understand the difference between “defense”, “nataional interest” versus charity work for dictators and Muslims who do everything they can to damage American interests, better to bring them home.
What the hell is the objective in Afghanistan, and HOW IN THE HELL can it be achieved absent offensive action into Pakistan?. The original Afghanistan campaign by the Bush Admin demonstrated that we don’t need hundreds of thousands of American’s at work and at risk, and $Billions invested, to control a minor brush fire. We DO need to be willing to kill massive amounts of the enemy, along if necessary with the adversary’s civilians, to protect our interests. I’m all for hitting Iran and even putting boots on the ground if necessary. Then WE LEAVE and send an occasional aid ship if the Iranians are really, really nice to us. Or we TAKE THEIR OIL to pay for “nation building”, i.e. they can become a US protectorate or territory.
Example: THe Arab League supported the campaign against Kadaffy, until about 15 minutes after the shooting started. Now they want us out and the war stopped. I guess the US military is supposed to be the worlds poorest paid “rent a cops”?
Bring ‘em home until the nation can agree on what’s worth American blood and treasure.
Old Salt
Our creditors in Bejing could stop this adventure with a phone call, as did Ike the French/British/Israelsis 55 years ago. Wonder if they will.
ac/96; …not until we’ve fully convinced all the peoples along the old silk road that, probably because of our system of government, we are dangerous and crazy.
Robert@89
“By the way NATO can’t afford to loose this one, and hope to remain viable. ”
Where have we heard that before!
wc@75: Libya just doesn’t seem that important to me. That makes me wonder if something else is important.
My thought exactly. Just as I’m starting to wrap my mind around the magnitude of the Japanese catastrophe, I read that “we” are “invading” Libya – because the French want it but don’t have the air power.
The only “something else” is a real world exercise to consolidate the Petraeus Doctrine of enabling Arab League peace-making capabilities, as per Victor above. I’m skeptical. It’s one of those ideas that presents well, but executes poorly. Long term, I think it is inevitable (65-35 or better if both the Arabs and the Persians weren’t possessed of such hyper-volatile temperaments.)
Short-term the only important foreign policy objective in the ME, from the POV of USA interests, is preventing any of the Islamic players from acquiring nuclear weaponry. I expect it’s already too late.
I hear ya “Old Salt”, I was never for the Nation building B_LL S_IT ether, we ether KICK _SS (Kill as many as possible) then leave (Military) offer assistance only with the strings of you gotta go equal for all gov (which means no Islam (no sharia)) and “they pay for it! we provide the “Know how” and protection if need be from interfering outsiders.
Like I said there is always a “Dominate” force weather local, regional or national and then international and that is constant thru out history so the Dominate force has been the “Policeman” weather good or bad they kept the “Law” weather righteous or corrupt… there is no other country that has done a better job in the past and currently still doing it well, but that is definitely changing with the 0bama/Hillary crew!
The reasons have changed over the centuries. Right now, however, it’s because the techno-ninja crap put out by liberaltarians is just that — crap. It assumes that a foreign leader’s “nearest guard” combines the worst features of the Keystone Kops and a banana republic’s army; that everyone in the foreign regime is a coward, and that there is no scope for retaliation…not against governments but against populations.
Well, they went ahead and did it – about the stupidest thing America and Europe could have done and they’ve done it. What would have been over in another 48 hr. now may play out over years and with far more casualties the intervention was ostensibly going to prevent in the first place.
Obviously that means that this coalition is either composed of utter morons or that something else is in play although what that could be other than the overthrow of Gaddafi I don’t know. Without Gaddafi’s ouster what will happen? Will we see a split of the country with anti-Western forces on one side and anti-Western forces on the other we can’t tell the difference between other than their geographical location and who will probably go to war with each other as soon as possible? Even with Gaddafi dead tomorrow you still have 2 sides who will hate each other but now with third parties and therefore many more options to express that hate.
If Benghazi had been retaken there for sure would have been a lot of people rounded up and killed. Now, instead, the two sides, no matter the outcome of this intervention, will be alive, active and healthy to kill each other and Westerners down through the years. Really, really, stupid idea to involve ourselves in this. Letting this play out may in fact have been the surest road to the fewest casualties since there was no way to avoid that – things had gone too far no matter what.
And why the West – again? Why not a coalition of Arab states if they are so goddam concerned? What is the end game here – “the spice must flow”?
Congratulations morons. Once again you have given fuel to the fire from within Islam that will trot out “imperialism’ and “colonialism” and we in America will count ourselves lucky if they fly planes into the Eiffel Tower this time.
We should have been smart like in Rio; a few molotov cocktails and Brazil has ensured that no one will fly a plane into the statue of Christ or Sugarloaf for at least a decade.
Libya was a mess before but an entirely self-contained one and now it will spread around with consequences that are unknown as to location, date and length of time. We have guaranteed that one side for certain will extend out their hatred and desire for revenge outside the borders of Libya instead of against each other. You can practically count the dead tourists in Italy and France already in the next 5 years.
It is obvious that there has been behind the scenes contacts with those opposed to Gaddafi but of what nature I don’t know. Doing ‘something’ is ill-advised; sometimes the best thing is to do nothing, something the hyperactive West just doesn’t get as Obama seems to have been shamed into making his self-portrait look one more brush stroke like G.W. based on the idea that one must always do something, tinker with something – that is why the gov’t keeps growing, because there is this sense of constantly doing something, fixing something, and what we’re left with is a bloated bureacracy where if you want to open a restaurant you need so much money to do so that if you’re that rich you don’t need to open a restaurant.
If America thinks we’re just going to shoot cruise missiles from ships and then go home with a hearty ‘well done’ ringing in their ears as the flag of democracy is raised over Libya they have another think coming. There is no doubt in my mind that this intervention has made the whole thing utterly worse for everyone, especially those that would not have been involved. No one is killing Westerners by setting off suicide bombs while yelling, “You should have gotten involved! Aiiiiiiieeeeeeehhhhhhh!” Boom!
Ask yourself if bin Laden is crying or laughing over this one; he’s laughing like a bitch and so is an area of Libya that sent a very high proportion of men to Iraq to fight the U.S. Instead of spending all this treasure why doesn’t the West just select some of its people and hang them from trees and save terrorists air fare and maybe us some passenger jets?
A@101: It assumes that a foreign leader’s “nearest guard” combines the worst features of the Keystone Kops and a banana republic’s army
In Khaddafy’s case, we could send in Stephanie Power and Susan Rice to negotiate a humanitarian solution.
Then replace them with Hillary Clinton at the last minute.
(It’s no worse than bl’s Kenya joke!!)
On the plus side, it looks like The Duck is having some serious, umm… “maintenance” issues with his vehicles, thanks to the French. I’m beginning to think this thing just MIGHT have the potential of ending sooner rather than later. I certainly hope so.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4596856/destruction-on-the-road-to-benghazi
101. Akatsukami
(quoting me) But “world leaders” tend to blanch at that sort of thing. I wonder why?
I was being sarcastic there. I know perfectly well why. A “leader” ordering the assassination of another “leader” would set a dangerous precedent (for the “leaders”), and might give the peasantry some funny ideas.
Regardless of whether al Qadaffi leaves sooner or later or not at all, it WON’T be on account of Obama. Obama’s pulling a Clinton (see also the Bosnian “War”). Obama’s thinking is that even better than only bombing from 15,000 feet is getting the French and Brits to do it for you, lob in a few cruise missiles and, voila, victory.
I can see the democrats in congress awarding Obama the Medal of Honor (to go with his phony Nobel Peace Prize).
One thing about air strikes (that military vets already know): you need commo with the troops on the ground. You can’t just fly over, drop your ordnance and hope it hits the right target. The aircraft must know beforehand where the good guys are and where the bad guys are. I wonder if we have some spec ops people on the ground who can coordinate the air strikes? Or is that just too “old school”?
When I heard yesterday that the “shock and awe” was about to begin, both my wife (a political naif) and I said “too late, stupid!”. But is there ANY chance (and I’m not optimistic on this) that the delay was to establish a “first draft” replacement government? A good lawyer (oxymoron, I know) never asks a witness a question unless he already knows the answer – maybe somebody (most likely French) thinks they know what Daffy’s replacement regime looks like, and that was the last prerequisite to initiate the process. Stratfor reports that at least SAS and possibly other nations’ spec-ops personnel are on the ground already. Comms, logistics, and target illumination would be the three obvious items on the “to do” list. And Stratfor’s map also indicates the carrier DeGaulle is enroute. I’m off now to see what that ship’s capabilities are.
My goodness what a waste of a blog page. Quadaffi’s forces are being cut in two. The portion remaining to the East of the cut line will be destroyed by air and rebels and that line will be enforced by rebels with Nato air power. Quadaffi will expect a siege of Tripoli that will not come as his forces are targeted with munitions against war equipment. Qudaffi can be king of Tripoli as long as his own soldiers don’t decide it better to end his life and stop the fighting – that may be days, it may be weeks.
The problem people are forgetting about is that NATO and Obumbler have no plan and did not even attempt to plan. They have a telecon, a cup of java, and then convince themselves they can be “done in a couple of days”. That’s the thing about socialists, they hate working, even in war. No Republicans to bail their sorry asses out now. It’s much better to “Imagining if…” don’t hog the bong John… Where are my rose colored glasses?
God help us all and the poor, innocent, people who are going to die.
Admiral Mullen explains what has happened and what is expected in Libya.
Byron York is wondering about the “taking the lead” part too. He argues that the basic fact that America has most of the hard power implies that unless the tail wages the dog, the dog must wag the tail.
Why? Either because they want someone else to hold the bag, which won’t happen because everybody will continue to say “it’s America’s fault” or Hillary cannot regard the use of force authorized by another body except the UN to be legitimate; that America can only use its armed forces when somebody else lets it — that it cannot even not use its forces if the UN wants it to — for reasons she perhaps understands best.
It is well to remember that publics came out of the First World War vowing an end to “secret diplomacy” — arrangements by which an unelected transnational elite could redraw the map of Europe in the world; making commitments without reference to their national parliaments and political systems.
One of the biggest problems with elevating the UN Security Council to the apex of legitimacy is that it restores this process of secret diplomacy. What arrangements has Hillary made? Can Congress subpoena her to ask? Is it even any of their business any more? Or is that a stupid question because as one liberal pundit once put it, “nobody understands the Constitution because it smore than a hundred years old”? It is often said that “war is too important to be left to the generals”. Maybe it is even more important not to leave it to the diplomats.
Democrats hate war….unless they start them!
David, the bad guys are the ones with the tanks and airplanes. The goal of the airstrikes is not to win a war but to ensure a fair fight and prevent an outright pogrom.
No
I AM AMAZED AT THE LACK OF COMMENTS ASKING WHY OUR “PRESIDENT”DID NOT GET CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT B4 ATTACKING LIBYA. Are you guys really that dumb-downed that you are unaware of the illegal actions we are involved in right now? I sure hope not.
Ok, so a no-fly zone is to keep Gadhafi’s planes on the ground. I get that. What I don’t get is why the no-fly zone also involves bombing his tanks. Did Gadhafi suddenly develop tanks that fly and the news fail to report it?
refuse2lose said ““PRESIDENT”DID NOT GET CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT B4 ATTACKING LIBYA” I believe the Prez has a 90 day window to bring it before the congress after action, it’s not that anyone forgot it’s that I and others knew there is (I think it’s called) “The War Powers Act” it was modified during or at the end of Vietnam and then again was the center of Clintons reason for wagging the dog in Yugoslavia/Bosnia without anyone’s approval… But of course it is only allowed to be used without question by the MSM when a Democrat flex’s the Penis vs. a Republican killing real terrorist to protect America
@ 115 Greg: Funny you should mention flying tanks. That is exactly what the Soviet Union considered helicopters. They reasoned that a helicopter more closely resembled a tank than it did a fighter jet, since tanks and helicopters can seize and hold terrain, whereas fighters can only fly over it and bomb it. Back in the day, Libya bought many attack helicopters from the former Soviet Union. Consequently, helicopters must be grounded, as well.
More to the point, though, in order to enforce the no-fly zone, UN aircraft must be able to fly over Libyan terrain to identify and shoot down aircraft. To do this, they must not be constantly under attack by Libyan ground-based anti-aircraft defenses. I would bet they had appropriate wording in the resolution to allow suppression of enemy air defenses, which would include disruption and destruction – accomplished by hitting them with bombs and missiles. This would be the only way they could police a no-fly zone.
Richard & cedarhill (# 80),
Gadaffi is nothing without money to pay his minions. He doesn’t have the loyalty of a large group in his own country the way Saddam Hussein of Iraq had the loyalty of its @ 20-25% Sunni Arab minority. Even Gadaffi’s own tribe is in it for the money.
This means that freezing of his assets overseas and blockade will get rid of him. It’s just a question of time, and that is at most a few months. He probably has only about two weeks left.
cedarhill,
IMO the best case outcome here is to pay the Egyptian Army to take over Libya, and then encourage them to share with deserving Libyans. Getting rid of Gadaffi is fairly simple given that it’s only about money. Avoiding a nutball Sunni Islamicist takeover of a country with oil income will be much more difficult, and I completely agree that means an Egyptian takeover.
Let’s not forget thhat it’s not about NATO toppling Gaddafi but about the Libyan people toppling Gaddafi with the help of a NFZ. They are going to remove him from power, the international intervention is merely to help THEM with that.