The WSJ reports that “computer spies”, probably from China, have stolen terrabytes of data from the F-35 project. They exploited vulnerabilities in a contractor’s system to siphon out data, which they encrypted before putting it on the wire, so that it may still be unknown exactly what was stolen. However, sources believed that the really important system details had escaped compromise, on the basis of the isolation of the data from the stolen information. The intrusions were first detected in 2007 and continued into 2008.
Computer spies have broken into the Pentagon’s $300 billion Joint Strike Fighter project — the Defense Department’s costliest weapons program ever — according to current and former government officials familiar with the attacks. Similar incidents have also breached the Air Force’s air-traffic-control system in recent months, these people say. In the case of the fighter-jet program, the intruders were able to copy and siphon off several terabytes of data related to design and electronics systems, officials say, potentially making it easier to defend against the craft.
The latest intrusions provide new evidence that a battle is heating up between the U.S. and potential adversaries over the data networks that tie the world together. The revelations follow a recent Wall Street Journal report that computers used to control the U.S. electrical-distribution system, as well as other infrastructure, have also been infiltrated by spies abroad. …
AdvertisementFormer U.S. officials say the attacks appear to have originated in China. However it can be extremely difficult to determine the true origin because it is easy to mask identities online. A Pentagon report issued last month said that the Chinese military has made “steady progress” in developing online-warfare techniques. China hopes its computer skills can help it compensate for an underdeveloped military, the report said.
If the WSJ article is accurate, then the compromise of the F-35 data probably represents only a small sample of the true damage. Barack Obama pledged to make cybersecurity a large part of his defense plan. Mother Jones Steve Aquino wrote that the new cybersecurity czar would have vast powers to set standards, view private data and even be able to shut down parts of the Internet.
On Wednesday they introduced a bill to establish the Office of the National Cybersecurity Advisor—an arm of the executive branch that would have vast power to monitor and control Internet traffic to protect against threats to critical cyber infrastructure. That broad power is rattling some civil libertarians. The Cybersecurity Act of 2009 (PDF) gives the president the ability to “declare a cybersecurity emergency” and shut down or limit Internet traffic in any “critical” information network “in the interest of national security.” The bill does not define a critical information network or a cybersecurity emergency. That definition would be left to the president.
The bill does not only add to the power of the president. It also grants the Secretary of Commerce “access to all relevant data concerning [critical] networks without regard to any provision of law, regulation, rule, or policy restricting such access.” This means he or she can monitor or access any data on private or public networks without regard to privacy laws.
I commented that one problem with giving the keys to unlock America’s information stores to a single government agency in order to defend them was the danger that the cybersecurity czar’s system itself might be hacked. In that case, the vast powers delegated to Obama’s cyberczar — or his contractors — could be wielded by those “computer spies”. In late 1941, the commanders at Pearl Harbor, fearing Japanese sabotage, defended the island’s aircraft by parking them wingtip to wingtip in the middle of the runway where they could be put under guard. That didn’t work out too well. The bureaucrats dream of the day when all health care data can be stored securely under their care. While I recognize the transformational benefits of managing patient health care histories, I also fear the magic day for the reasons already given.
NextGov says that one of those who will be standing guard will be none other than Richard Clarke, who joins other experienced bureaucrats on the defensive team. These individuals may be competent and well-meaning, but in a system with as many moving parts and constraints as the government, the whole is sometimes less than the sum of the parts.
Among those advising Obama on security is Richard Clarke, former counterterrorism czar in the Clinton and Bush administrations. He and others have publically criticized the White House for not making cybersecurity a priority, and for limiting the amount of authority the position has had over governmentwide cybersecurity policy.
The top cybersecurity position in government has risen in stature in the Bush administration, albeit slowly. Gregory Garcia, assistant secretary of cybersecurity and telecommunications, reports to Robert Jamison, undersecretary for the National Protection and Programs Directorate. Jamison reports to Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, who reports to President Bush. Three steps away from the president.
The cybertheft game between China and the United States will always remain asymmetrical for as long as the US has more secrets to steal than China. I certainly hope that our cyberguardians had the wit to poison the data when it was being siphoned off. My only fear is that the fear of legal liability may have prevented them from messing with their own data even as it was stolen by the Chinese. In our modern, politically correct world, nothing is too absurd to be true.
I have been mentioning the Chinese and Russians mapping our systems and, in the case of the Chinese an entire Army Division’s mission is to penentrate our C4.
This is an act of war, not that anyone on the Hill or the Resident will claim it as such. Expect no one in our government to object. In fact they’ll attempt to cover the depth of penetration up since the Chinese now own so much of our debt.
Folks I have mentioned it but I cannot tell you how important it is to be armed and have water filters (Berkey) food supplies etc. One day they will take down our grid and mass hysteria will ensue.
Welcome to a world where the CINC is a clear and present danger to our survival.
It’s relatively simple to protect computer data for sensitive Government owned information.
You classify it as CONFIDENTIAL or SECRET. You then only perform the sensitive (now classified) work on systems that are part of the separate SECRET network, with no physical connectivity to the internet.
Many government contractors who perform classified work have secured
intranets that are not connected to the World Wide Web in any way, shape, or form. Some are even connected to the military’s SIPRNET system, and networked data is encrypted using a KIV-7, KG-175, some other type 1 encryption device, or a combination of cryptographic gear.
The problem with such as system is human spying as we all have learned from experience at Los Alamos and many other places.
DVD burners and USB thumb-drives have complicated things, as have I-Phones, I-Pods and other small readily attachable mass storage devices.
We really need to monitor our civilian contractors much more thoroughly. They have already signed away some of their right to privacy when they agreed to have a security clearance.
I second what Habu said about preparedness. It’s not just for Boy Scouts….
Armeggedon Rex said:
“DVD burners and USB thumb-drives have complicated things, as have I-Phones, I-Pods and other small readily attachable mass storage devices.”
The one Gbyte thumb-drive effectively defeats many of the advantages of a separate classified computer network. A possible solution is to encrypt all traffic on the classified network and data stored on hard disks. However a spy can still up-load almost everything on a single thumb-drive if he has authorized access to the data. It’s my understanding that the Chinese fully compromised Los Alamos National Lab and got everything (correct me if I’m wrong about this). Supposably the Chinese know everything concerning US nuclear weapons technology.
I’m morally confused about the death penalty (I don’t like giving the government that much power). However there probably should be a warning written on the cover of every highly classified document that says:
“You will be put to death if you reveal this information to any unauthorized person!”
Then actually carry out this threat everytime a spy is caught (no exceptions, no plea bargains).
In my personal experience the largest hole in secure data systems is the users who are too lazy, too self-important or just too stupid to take these threats seriously. Or as we say in the biz, PEBKAC. Problem exists between keyboard and chair.
Ditto the Boy Scout motto; There will not be much warning.
Eggplant:
I’ve seen similar but sturdier devices used in several SCIFs:
http://www.everythingusb.com/usb_security_lock_13460.html
They won’t keep out a really determined spy, but combined with periodic searches, and two person access, they sure do make things more challenging.
Eggplant:
Here’s one of the several models I’ve actually seen used in a SCIF:
http://files.acco.com/KENSINGTON/K67718US/K67718US-40653.pdf
Me thinks China is simply reducing its near future cost for said data paid in Campaign donations, Like Clinton I do not think it is far into the future and there will be a “news” story describing how the Clinton Administration (oh I am sorry, I meant Obama Administration) opened up high tech equipment sells and trading to the Chinese and while everyone was being waged by this or that future current event, the Chinese will once again make off with a whole shopping cart full of dual or multipurpose tech equipment and Data that basically hands them the last twenty years of advancement that they didn’t get last time the Clintons sold the store (Opps there I go again, Obama Administration) to them for Campaign donations.
Besides, everyone knows (that has worked in the Information Services area of our government (Fed, state and local)) that the Chinese have been there for at least the last decade, the really scary issue is there are much smarter Chinese hackers then there are now American Hackers, the US started losing the “Hacking” game in the late nineties and the way things are going now (academic and non academic) we will never be back on top of that game…
SpeakEasy 4:
That’s why you isolate the classified work onto computers with no physical connection to the World Wide Web. Then at least, if something leaks out, you’re pretty sure it was intentional spying.
This assumes that anytime data is “sneaker-netted” between the high side and the low side computer network, as will invariably need to be done, at least infrequently, the data must pass through the security office, who have the USB port key, and who review the materials and supervise the process to ensure only authorized data movement takes place.
Armeggedon Rex said:
“They won’t keep out a really determined spy, but combined with periodic searches, and two person access, they sure do make things more challenging.”
Two person access is the solution. The Navy and USAF has long used that method with nuclear weapons technology. Require that all highly classified information be accessible only by two trusted persons using different passwords at the same time. Also require that classified documents only be checked out on two signatures. Both persons must remain in the room while the data is exposed. Of course the downside is that data access becomes much more cumbersome. Does the lack-of-access disadvantage outway the advantage of added security? The old joke is the most secure computer is the one still in its shipping container and never been used.
I’m sure it may have happened and just never been reported by our crack MSM in America, but can anyone tell me of a time when America *ever* had to resort to stealing secrets from Russia and China the way they routinely dip into American culture and activities to piggyback their way to modernity?
It’s why I consistently find it so difficult to take either China or Russia seriously: If they’re having to steal ideas from us, then what does that say about who’s ahead of whom?
Anything can be secured at the cost of enough inconvenience because the problem with most forms of security is that they involve hassles. After the first impulse to protect is gone, once the urgency has faded, the desire for convenience will inevitably reassert itself. That’s why you see apartment block security doors propped open with telephone directories or find passwords taped to monitor screens. The deepest fear of some users isn’t that the Chinese James Bond will penetrate their system; no: it is that they will forget their password for the upteenth time and face the embarrassment of asking the sysadmin for a new one. How many people, especially those with older and fading memories, haven’t written out their Visa or Mastercard PIN on a piece of paper, which to keep from losing, they’ve kept in their wallets?
Some part of the data must be stored inconveniently enough — at a high access cost — so that it can escape from the law of human laziness — PEBKAC. And that access cost must be accepted as a hard constraint in project budgets and timetables by management or else it doesn’t work. Rush jobs are especially destructive to this discipline because of the incentive to hotwire certain procedures open. There’s a story about a bunch of guys working in an embassy safe room on a rush project some decades ago, with photographs of certain persons taped to the walls and classified folders strewn open on a trestle table. As the days wear on and the deadline approaches, they rely increasingly on coffee and sandwiches to keep them going, head down in the planning. Eventually someone asks whether all the people coming in and out of the room bringing in fresh documents and coffee have all the necessary security clearances; eventually it transpired that they assumed that the others knew that they did. But they didn’t. Recently a British security official was photographed entering Downing Street with classified documents poking out of his clutch. He was presumably rushing to brief Gordon Brown and had no time to put it in the prescribed document case. The need for convenience is a powerful force. Given enough time, it will nearly always win against security.
Eggplant 9:
Too right about the most secure computer being yet unpacked in its box! But it does make that software assisted analysis and data fusion challenging without the hardware, not to mention the computerized reporting!!!
Most SCIFs I’ve been in are approved for open storage of data at all security levels.
The catch is, searches for everyone entering or leaving the SCIF, and no body works in the SCIF space alone.
There is always another person with you, often many people packed in like sardines!
This constant observation strongly discourages tampering with computer USB ports, etc.
NahnCee 10:
This may not qualify as “stealing” if you mean technology, but the good guys at NSA (Huzzay for the home team!!!) sure did pawn the Soviets but good, for decades. See hypertext link below:
http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/declass/venona/index.shtml
Wretchard said:
“That’s why you see apartment block security doors propped open with telephone directories or find passwords taped to monitor screens. The deepest fear of some users isn’t that the Chinese James Bond will penetrate their system; no: it is that they will forget their password for the upteenth time and face the embarrassment of asking the sysadmin for a new one”
That’s the problem is a nutshell. Add to that, modern automatic password systems require you to update your password every month with a password that is not less than 12 characters that must be upper and lower case along with special characters and not contain strings listed in any of the password dictionaries. In essence, you are forced to replace your password every month with something like
##imPossib1e2rEmember!!
By necessity, everyone will have their passwords posted on their monitors or in their wallets.
Password Safe – don’t surf without it.
Sometimes you wonder about the unknown or at least unheralded effects of espionage….
Several years back a friend of mine in California told me about someone he knew who was asking for advice. The man had “inherited” some of Jack Northrop’s personal papers. They revealed that the FBI had found Soviet agents had penetrated the B-35/B-49 flying wing programs.
And then another friend of mine in Florida told me some interesting information about the B-49. He was at Muroc Army Airfield when the B-49 crashed.
And I put it all together. Soviet spies in the flying wing program, followed by crash of the B-49, the Soviets reveal their B-29 copies, accidental discovery of the B-49’s low radar observability characteristics, detonation of the first Soviet nuke – followed by cancellation of the B-49 program.
A stealth bomber in the hands of Stalin would have been a Very Bad Thing.
Hell of a story there. Makes you wonder….
Great conversations you folks. Spying, the second oldest profession isn’t ever going away and no matter how many off the internet secure systems are developed or what other safeguards are put into place it comes down not to technology ,but traditional tradecraft.
The old acronym MICE.
Money
Ideology
Compromise (or coercion)
Ego
All humans are subject to one or a combination of these lures. No security system can keep a person who has been “turned” by virtue of MICE from giving up a countries secrets. The human link is always the weakest.
The Chinese is preparing in case it is needed when they move in the Pacific that may interfere with US interests,
Russia is poised to take Tbilisi, they have troops 25 miles from capital. They failed to have the demonstrations take out Tshivilli and now it will be the military.
http://www.kyivpost.com/world/39994
Biden sure was right about being tested. N Korea ballistic missile launch and Obama refused to turn on the big radar. Somalia pirates make the navy look helpless until a local commander had enough.
Israel is threatening a raid on Iran whether US approves or not.
China had stolen F 35 secrets from contractors and Russia will conquer Turkey and kill an ally leader.
And we thought Carter was bad.
RWE said:
“The man had “inherited” some of Jack Northrop’s personal papers. They revealed that the FBI had found Soviet agents had penetrated the B-35/B-49 flying wing programs…. And I put it all together. Soviet spies in the flying wing program, followed by crash of the B-49, the Soviets reveal their B-29 copies, accidental discovery of the B-49’s low radar observability characteristics, detonation of the first Soviet nuke – followed by cancellation of the B-49 program…. Hell of a story there. Makes you wonder….”
One of my hobbies is studying the Titan-II Mk-6 reentry vehicle from declassified documents. For reasons that I won’t go into, the Mk-6 is interesting in the history of entry vehicle design. If one looks at the original General Electric Corp. design documents for the Mk-6, one finds a very well conceived concept. For example, the original Mk-6 had a nicely designed hemispherical after-body enclosure that would have produced a clean flowing wake and good dynamic stability. However the version of the Mk-6 that was actually deployed on the Titan-II had a simple flat plate as an after body enclosure. The actually deployed design was simply nuts because the wake behind the Mk-6 would have been shedding vorticies like crazy and have poor dynamic stability (it would have flown a semi-random cork screw trajectory). The consequence of this would have been significantly degraded accuracy for the reentry vehicle. Under the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, the Mk-6 was one of America’s last lines of defense. Why did the Mk-6 go from an initially well conceived, accurate design to an inaccurate design? My first guess is it was due to simple stupidity (somebody wanted to save some money). However I can’t help but wonder whether a bad guy working for the Soviets influenced the design.
Vladimir Suvorov said the Soviets could steal every secret we had, except one- the secret of making bread. I’m afraid we will have to rely on that, or its modern equivalent.
Eggplant:
I ever tell you about my search for some Mk II Copper Beryilium heat sink RVs for a certain project back when I had the Thor program? It was tapered rather sharply in the back.
Old RV’s tend to disappear very fast. I was only able to find one, and I already had it.
As for Soviet influence, I rewrote one F-111 Tech Order that I used to say was either written by a dumb American or a smart Russian. It had everything wrong with it you could imagine. Given that it was the F-111, I would guess that it was an American.
The worst impact on security is neither the venal nor the stupid, but overwork. Load up people with all their usual workload plus neato things that some General thought up and answering letters from Congressmen’s constituents who are looking for a missile silo to buy and something has to give.
RWE said:
“I ever tell you about my search for some Mk II Copper Beryllium heat sink RVs for a certain project back when I had the Thor program? It was tapered rather sharply in the back.”
I’m familiar with the Mk-II (one of the few military RVs based upon blunt body theory). Every once in a while, someone suggests using beryllium in a design but is immediately hooted down because beryllium is so toxic. Apparently modern day EPA restrictions makes beryllium a non-option in the US. In another life, I worked with a copper beryllium nozzle at an Australian facility (the Australians are less fussy about such things).
I’d like to read your story about the Mk-II.
RAH said:
“Biden sure was right about being tested. N Korea ballistic missile launch and Obama refused to turn on the big radar. Somalia pirates make the navy look helpless until a local commander had enough.”
I’m inclined to believe the local Navy commander exceeded his orders when he saved that heroic captain from the pirates. Habu repeated a story that a friend of his told him that he heard from someone else. Has anyone read or heard anything about this story that is above the level of idle gossip?
#20–they probably didn’t need to; I’ve had Russian bread and it’s good. Also the ice cream and soup. Of course, this was back in the old USSR and my friend and I both agreed they were the only three things we saw that were right (we were not there as tourists).
Compare this article with our thread, substituting nuclear attack with an all out cyber attack on the same targets.
The cyber attacks would do the same damage and take a alot fewer front loaders to clean up the rubble.
Russia’s nuclear attack on U.S. may start with major banks
While US scientists put forward the new doctrine of the Minimum Nuclear Deterrence (targeting missiles against Russia’s 12 key enterprises), Bigness.ru decided to draw a map of a limited strike that could paralyze the US economy. It turns out that the United States is much more vulnerable than Russia at this point. An attack against only five targets in the USA will throw the US economy back into the Stone Age.
US scientists put forward an idea to focus targets on 12 key objects of the Russian economy: enterprises of Gazprom, Rosneft, Rusal, Nornikel, Surgutneftegaz, Evraz and Severstal. The suggestion became an absolutely new approach to the deterrence doctrine. The USA currently has the Mutual Assured Demolition Doctrine, which stipulates an attack of some 200 targets on Russia’s territory.
According to various estimates, Russia’s doctrine stipulates attacks against about 100 targets on the territory of the United States. The destruction of those targets will cause critical damage to the USA.
There is no need to destroy the whole planet in order to paralyze a country and push it back into the Stone Age. The IMF can serve a very good example at this point: the organization pushed several countries into the economic abyss without the use of military force.
Leonid Ivashov, the vice president of the Academy for Geopolitical Sciences, believes that Russia would first need to attack USA’s largest banks. A successful attack would paralyze the entire dollar-dependent economy. “This is the number one goal in case of war. We would need to destroy large banks in London as well,” the Colonel-General said.
Inga Foksha, an analyst with IK Aton, did not hesitate to name five targets, the destruction of which would jeopardize the USA’s existence.
The first strike should be made against the offices of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in Washington, Dallas and Chicago. “This company handles depositors’ funds. If it disappears, and if banks have no guarantees, the people will panic and will rush to cash their deposits,” Foksha said.
A company of the real sector of economy with diversified business, General Electric, for example, can become an object of the second strike. The death of the company that stands on the crossroad of several economic sectors will paralyze the activities of thousands of adjacent companies, and millions of people will lose their jobs.
The third nuclear strike will be made against Freddie Mac and Dannie Mae. “These two agencies currently devour a great amount of state funds,” Inga Foksha said.
The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve System would also make important targets to strike, the analyst believes.
We can see today that the Americans are following a different path now. It is not likely that the USA will strike a massive nuclear blow,” Leonid Ivashov said.
Very simply, I was looking for some Mk II’s to fit 5 Thors we were thinking of launching for a certain purpose. A Mk II would have been nice because the LV-2D vehicles were configured for them. I called various museums at the Cape and Wright Patt and then someone suggested I try Sandia. I called them and they said they would check and let me know.
I called Sandia back after a few weeks and they said they had not found any but “do you want the Mk II’s with the DEVICES in them?” I said NO! That was all I needed to make things really interesting, 5 nuclear weapons delivered to me. I guess I could have put them on the Thors and taken over Mexico, but what would I have done with if I had?
I suspect that the blunt design of the Mk II – repeated on the GE RVs for CORONA – was to simplify the weapon fusing requirements by slowing it down as much as it was to get the nuke through the atmosphere safely.
Gordon, you’re not missing the joke at all, are you? In glorious Soviet, 20 million people starved to death. Lack of bread, see?
Nahncee, you have to go earlier. Pierre duPont’s gunpowder work “by rights” belonged to France. When “we” got him, we had our first technological strategic secret. The British strongly felt that we stole the entire Industrial Revolution. Loom operators and millwrights were, literally, smuggled out of England (Shanghai’ed, the English said). Patent and copyright disputes through Kipling’s time were seen as industrial/cultural espionage, and worse.
No comment on intent, guilt or innocence, but yes, such things did go on, for good or ill.
Nahncee: except if your enemy invests in technology, and you invest in espionage, and you are respectively ahead of the other in your expertise – who’s smarter? The one who spends $400 billion on R&D, or the one who spends $40 billion on R&D, and steals $400 billion?
China’s allegedly $15 or $19 billion in military spending may look a lot more like $315 billion… Who knows? Maybe that carrier-killing new missile of theirs is US-designed?
“Apparently modern day EPA restrictions makes beryllium a non-option in the US.”
Funny thing that. Beryllia is an incredible substance with the thermal conductivity of copper but the weight less than aluminum. So you are designing a new RV to deliver the final wrath of god from an angry nation, but oh no, can’t have any carcinogens in it. This rational is why we will not let someone smoke a cigarette before a firing squad.
We are screwed because we are collectively crazy. Fat people cause global warming. I bet the Ruskies aren’t too worried about it.
You know, Richard Nixon started the EPA and the average liberal will deny it. This is the typical effect of the conservative trying to do something worthwhile for humanity. Now adays, humans are considered pollution by the state. This does not bode well for the living when you govt thinks you are toxic and must be removed. I am afraid that the EPA will be deciding on carbon dioxide. Gee, unlimited power, I wonder if they will say nay?
RMN gave us Affirmative Action and Wage & Price Controls…
BTW, the British were even more paranoid that any one should learn how to make a leather boot. Their technical monopoly did Napoleon in. It’s the real reason his army retreated in socks and bare feet!
Habu @ 1:
“Welcome to a world where the CINC is a clear and present danger to our survival.”
As so many of us were screaming to the rafters prior to 11/4/08. Might as well have been barking at the moon for all the good it did us. The Obamanation is a cypher, an enigma to which none of us rubes in flyover country hold the key. Where was he born? What do his college transcripts look like? Why cannot we see these things? Most other candidates are glad to show them.
Eggplant @ 3:
“…the Chinese fully compromised Los Alamos National Lab and got everything (correct me if I’m wrong about this). Supposably the Chinese know everything concerning US nuclear weapons technology.”
Uhm, not sure. I am from the area and it appeared that Wen Ho Lee was not guilty of spying just compromising the rules. OR the government screwed up so thoroughly that they just had to gloss the whole thing over. Mheh – you choose.
There are several 4GW & 5GW documents in the public domain on the ‘net. The best are authored from the Chinese. They recognize that they cannot win the physical war that easily without massive destruction but that if the target is softened first then they can come in and mop up the rest easily. I may have some of them copied and I will try and find them – later.
Gerard over at American Digest posted some interesting comments from Robert Heinlein reproduced here:
Small Signs of Decline by Robert Heinlein:
“I want to mention one of the obvious symptoms: Violence. Muggings. Sniping. Arson. Bombing. Terrorism of any sort. Riots of course – but I suspect that little incidents of violence, pecking away at people day after day, damage a culture even more than riots that flare up and then die down. Oh, conscription and slavery and arbitrary compulsion of all sorts and imprisonment without bail and without speedy trial – but those things are obvious; all the histories list them.
I think you have missed the most alarming symptom of all. This one I shall tell you. But go back and search for it. Examine it. Sick cultures show a complex of symptoms as you have named… But a dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than a riot.
This symptom is especially serious in that an individual displaying it never thinks of it as a sign of ill health but as proof of his/her strength. Look for it. Study it. It is too late to save this culture – this worldwide culture, not just the freak show here in California. Therefore we must now prepare the monasteries for the coming Dark Age. Electronic records are too fragile; we must again have books, of stable inks and resistant paper.”
It may be that our demise is not with a bang but a whimper and a slow fade into the darkness.
RWE said:
“I suspect that the blunt design of the Mk II – repeated on the GE RVs for CORONA – was to simplify the weapon fusing requirements by slowing it down as much as it was to get the nuke through the atmosphere safely.”
The Mk-II RV used radiative cooling, i.e. heat absorbed from the shock layer by the copper beryllium head shield was radiated away (the CORONA Recovery Vehicles were also blunt bodies but used ablation type heat shields). The obvious limitation of the Mk-II was the outer wall temperature must not exceed the melting point of copper beryllium. The reduced wall temperature forced the requirement for bluntness. The Mk-II would have been a great concept if the objective was to reuse the heat shield but less than intelligent if the goal was to protect a nuke. The Mk-II was developed before people got serious about ablation for RV heat shields. The Mk-4 used on the Atlas and Titan-I and was one of the first ablator RVs. However the Mk-4 had crappy dynamic stability which set the stage for the Mk-6. The Mk-6 would have been a sweet design if they had kept the hemispherical after-body enclosure. The Mk-6 with the W-53 warhead became obsolete after they invented MIRVed ICBMs based upon 11 deg. half angle RVs using carbon-carbon nose tips.
I earlier said:
“Supposably the Chinese know everything concerning US nuclear weapons technology.”
Robohobo replied:
“Uhm, not sure. I am from the area and it appeared that Wen Ho Lee was not guilty of spying just compromising the rules.”
I read that it was discovered the Chinese had acquired the W-88 design (one of our most advanced nuclear warheads). It was this discovery that caused the folks at Los Alamos to go after Wen Ho Lee. If Wen Ho Lee was innocent then the real spy got away scott free.
13. Armeggedon Rex:
NahnCee 10:
This may not qualify as “stealing” if you mean technology, but the good guys at NSA (Huzzay for the home team!!!) sure did pawn the Soviets but good, for decades. See hypertext link below:
http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/declass/venona/index.shtml
……………..
Actually there is a bit of historical fudging here. The russian KGB learned about Venona in 1948 because they had a spy in the decription office. They then changed the codes. According to Wikipedia:
Most of the messages which would later prove to be decipherable were
intercepted between 1942 and 1945 when the existence of the program was
revealed to the Soviet Union by NKVD agent and US Army SIGINT cryptologist Bill Weisband.notes
After that the US could not read the Russian codes. This was the knock down craziest thing about the whole Mess. The NSA told the FBI about the several hundred spies Venona had fingered but then said the FBI had to develop their own leads. When the first spies were arrested in 1948 — most of the KGB spies simply stepped out of government. Their trails ran cold. Hoover in turn starting in 1950 responded to this by having weekly talks the McCarthy. McCarthy’s entire star turn began with his meetings with Hoover in 1950 and ended when his meetings with Hoover ended in 1954. The FBI to this day maintains that Hoover didn’t say anything about Venona to McCarthy. But its easy to see how Hoover would have put McCarthy in the same hopeless position that the NSA put him. The killer is that the whole point of the don’t-reveal-your-sources regime had already been compromised–and the NSA knew it. Why? Because they knew the Russians had changed their code.
The US government today, because it has shifted over to the democratic
party rule–has shifted over to Central McCarthy time. So its helpful to
remember the truth behind the lie.
McCarthy Unplugged
Russian Archival Identification of Real Names Behind Cover Names in VENONA
Russian Spies Uncovered By Venona
LA Times
By Ronald Radosh
September 17, 2008
Case Closed Rosenberg’s were Soviet Spies
The communists succeeded in imputing to McCarthy what what Stalin planned to do in the Doctor’s Plot.
A couple of the spies fingered by Venona dropped across the Mexican border and returned to Moscow where in the 1960′s they started Russia’s version of the silicon valley.
NSA kept Venona case files open for study for several more decades more for historical purposes than anything else.
@RWE The B49 Flying Wing was not really all that hot. The “stealth” characteristics notwithstanding. Glen Edwards, after whom Edwards is named, reported that is was just passable on a good day.
I believe that it was Stuart Symington as first Secretary of the Air Force who ordered the program canceled and bluepirnts destroyed. I put this down more to Luddite reactions than to anything else. I’ve also heard it said that Symington did not believe in “wasting money” on such frivolities as chase planes. Which is why nobody really knows to this day what caused the crash of that B49.
The flying wing design lay dormat until Kelly Johnson revived it with the F117. Seems to me that his success was due to two things: (1)fly by wire controls and (2) a diamond shape rather than the original “V”.
While I do not think the B49 should have been made operational, trying to bury the knowledge was $%^&*$#(! Ditto for trying to keep the lifting body designs away from both military and civilian alike.
During the REagan era it was revealed that there was a Pentagon office in charge of suppressing technological advances, ESPECIALLY
those the otehr side was incapable of using.
Can’t have us taking unfair advantage of our enemeies you know.
I notice this coming out under the Obama Administration. It’s a multinational project so all people at fault is not clear (Lockheed, Northrop, and BAE Systems PLC). Could this be Obama’s way of setting the stage for cutback or cancellation of F-35 Joint Strike aircraft? Will said money be diverted to ACORN?
I notice that of the some 10,500 cyber security breaches about 7,000 came from ‘Improper Usage”’ (3,762) and Unauthorized access (3,214). I would like to know how exactly and who exactly caused those breaches.
Being the ACORN lawyer he is, I would guess Obama will not fix the core of problem – but he will use the news to bury the project and divert the funds to his cronies.
Pollyanna says it could have been a honeypot scheme. We WANTED them to steal that data, because it was bogus anyway. Our trap worked!
Ahhh Richard Clarke. The country is in the very BEST of hands.
Habu @ 24. The financial institutions you cite are equally as vulnerable to a cyber attack as they are to some sort of bang/boom. We learned *somebody* has been sniffing around in the systems of power companies and other important infrastructure. Why would *someone* risk a devastating retaliation from a bang/boom attack when deniability is available?
“We can see today that the Americans are following a different path now. It is not likely that the USA will strike a massive nuclear blow,” Leonid Ivashov said. He may be right, but why would he risk it?
The thought that our people/systems could be so easily penetrated by our enemies makes my belly button pucker all the way to my backbone. Hearing enough of these accounts, one could conclude that some of our own are deliberately leaving the back door open. {{{shudder}}}
There are several tantalizing new conspiracy theories in play here–including one to make Nixon into a conservative! Let me add one:
Air Force was ready to roll with Cyber Command months ago, to the point that assignments to a new HQ at Barksdale had been cut. In the interregnum, the assignment was yanked, ostensibly as punishment for F-22 intransigence and a loaded-BUFF debacle.
Was this merely SecDef Gates’ this-war-itis, a new chapter in the admirals’ revolt, or a reserve (for more profitable play) of a valuable political football? Was USAF suddenly found to be rife with spies, or was their anti-hacking system hacked? Did an interim savant know that NYT would call (yesterday) for USAF to be dissolved, and bet on the strong-horse DHS? The ghost of Symington stalks the halls of power, offended that the bare wing flies at last. Could be, seekers…
DHS has been spotty on the details. Someone call the Chinese and ask what we’re doing.
So the enemy have the information, the next set of questions are ‘do they have the capability for manufacturing? how long do they acquire said capability?’
Can they duplicate the required sophistication and precision in the stealth technology, the radar absorbing (adsorbing?) materials, etc.
What parts of our capability were ‘outsourced’ to our current allies?
Lots of questions besides the obvious cyber warfare and the perpetrators themselves.
During a speech in Texas earlier this month, Joel Brenner, head of the U.S. Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive, said officials have seen counterfeit computer chips “make their way into U.S. military fighter aircraft.”
Brenner added: “You don’t sneak counterfeit chips into another nation’s aircraft to steal data. When it’s done intentionally, it’s done to degrade systems, or to have the ability to do so at a time of one’s choosing.”
His comments were not related to the F-35, according to administration officials. But Brenner has also warned that careless, laid-off or disaffected employees can often be the root of corporate cyber leaks. Foreign governments or groups, he said, plan computer attacks that take advantage of sloppy workers or bad network management practices.
In a series of recent speeches, Brenner has repeatedly raised the alarm that foreign governments and other groups are accessing government systems and installing malicious software.
“The Chinese are relentless and don’t seem to care about getting caught. And we have seen Chinese network operations inside certain of our electricity grids. Do I worry about those grids, and about air traffic control systems, water supply systems, and so on? You bet I do,” Brenner told an audience at the University of Texas at Austin.
This is just what the Reagan Administration did to the Soviet infrastructure which was brilliant and contributed heavily to bring down the Soviet Union.
Now the medicine is being used on us. One would think we’d be more vigilant but I’m quite sure that even within our closed systems sits a ChiCom or ChiCom sympathiser. This is an act of war.
http://tinyurl.com/cxr5qn
The Man Who Warned Congress
One wonders, can CINC prevent deployed SSBNs from retaliatory strikes? I’m writing this novel, y’see….
11. wretchard:
Anything can be secured at the cost of enough inconvenience because the problem with most forms of security is that they involve hassles.
=======================================
DRM and Sony have proved this is not true.
Message
Encryption
Encrypted Message
Given any two you can figure out the third.
The key is to identify all information with the identity of the requestor. When people know they will be positively identified with an information leak they will take more precautions to ensure it’s safeguarded.
Perhaps a custom PDF with your ID embedded, kind of like an mp3 with your name embedded.
RAH @ 18,
From your post, It appears that our Dear Leader is facing another test with the Russians violating the terms of the Georgian Cease fire and with troops 25 miles from Tbilisi.
What if there was war that tipped to the world into armed conflict and the Western Media refuses to cover it? Does that mean it never happened? To too many Americans with their heads buried in the sand, it does.
Un-friggin-believeable.
…..and when the grids go down and there is no police communication, no 911, no auxillary generators that could last more than a few days just how long do you think it would take MS-13,Skinheads, and other violent gangs to really crank it up, blocking the interstates with semi’s and fleecing the miles and miles of sheeple in their autos.
Law and order..fuggitaboutit. Food stocks wiped out in hours by normally sane people who will simple take the stuff since the cash registers won’t work. Sewage and fresh water plants..down..a country of 300 million in total chaos.
So office pools get ready. Which day on the calendar will the compromised systems we have fail? Which day will the definitive cyber attack come….or for the hopelessly naive, or should I say optimistic, what day will the Chinese and the Russians just walk away from attempting to take us down?
Put me down for either 9/11 or 12/7, this year ,next year. or the year after…but it’s coming. It will be sometime before Obama leaves office because they know he’ll have to launch a criminal investigation before he’ll send an apology. The Chinese like auspicious dates that favor their endeavors.
Habu:
One day they will take down our grid and mass hysteria will ensue.
==========================
I am coming around to your way of thinking, but because of a different vector.
The carbon tax. Our local utility has most of it’s nukes idling, it’s coal plants shutdown. Layoffs are immenent. By killing the economy, the demand for electricity has been reduced. The new carbon tax will kill the coal fired plants. The utilities were licensed monopolies to start with, and are heavily regulated, just like the banks. I fear we will see them fall to government control next.
The difference this time around is that there will be a new definition of rolling blackout. If you don’t roll over, you will be blacked out. Wow, weaponized utilities.
It’d be like waking up on Dec 7, 1941, except it’ll be Pearl Harbor not in Hawaii but in your lap.
markb, what’s mass starvation when the environment is at stake?
excerpted from Buddy Larsen’s #42 link
The KGB regime now believes the American side is acquiescing to Moscow’s assertion of hegemony over the former Soviet space “It is a surrender of the hopes and efforts of the Russian democrats as well as peoples of the post-Soviet states who dreamed to get out of the system that controlled and tortured them for almost a century,” said Illarionov. “But it is even more. It is a clear manifestation to all democratic and liberal forces in Russia and in the other post-Soviet states that on all internal and external issues of their struggle … the United States now abandons them and takes the position of their deadly adversaries and enemies. And therefore it is an open invitation for new adventures by the Russian Chekists’ regime….”
obama is a clear and present danger to the USA
The Energy CEOs all idolized Ken Lay and Enron. There was blame placed on the generation and transmission sides of the industry and talk of spinning them off as separate entities, allowing the utility to get down to it’s core business, bill collecting and speculating.
My thought at the time: Open up the playing field and Sprint and MCI will eat your lunch.
So Ken Lay got caught, and with the blackout came government approved rate increases to waste, so the thoughts of Enron II were soon enough put to rest.
These CEOs are a natural fit with their bureaucratic brethren in Washington. They only thing they detest more than their employees is their customers.
47. markb
That’s very close to the point I was illuminating in 24. Habu.
They, either the Russians or the Chinese need nukes to destroy us, or at minimum place us in third world status within a very ,very short period of time …like at just under the speed of light.
49. buddy larsen:
markb, what’s mass starvation when the environment is at stake?
=========================
Marie A. “Let them eat cake.”
Michelle O. “Let them eat escarole.”
Nancy P. “Let them eat cow farts.”
Thanks to all for the technical education.
What really bothers me about any sort of O’czar is the inevitable decision to release all the details of what ever is or is not done to address the issue. Richard Clarke…for example.
O and his most radical friends WANT US DESTROYED as a sap to their self-righteousness. They then plan to be annointed as heros in the new world order.
Arrggh.
O/T slightly & sorry for the long link but isn’t now about the time when the Pakistani government ought to get the ultimatum from CENTCOM that “either you counterattack and win, or we turn the FATA into glass. You have 72 hours to decide.” Otherwise it sure looks – for real – like Pakistan is going down, Right Now.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/04/22/pakistan.taliban/index.html
How possible is it to imbed, in a very subtle way, incorrect data into these systems? I imagine, though, that this would probably be more of a danger to us than to them. But just wondering. And who knows, perhaps this is already done at some level.
Buddy et al.,
Not entirely tangential to this thread is a piece I read and enjoyed very much yesterday in the April 21, 2009 “The American,” the journal of The American Enterprise Institute, by James V. DeLong, entitled “The Coming of the Fourth American Republic.”
I think the author’s contention that we are rapidly reaching a tipping point is persuasive. He calls our present political arrangement(s) the “Special Interest State.”
Jamie Irons
Dan,
That article is indeed frightening.
Its very last paragraph:
Khan added that he would like to see sharia law implemented beyond Pakistan, even in America, a country he knows intimately. For four years, the Taliban spokesman lived in the United States, working as a painter near Boston, Massachusetts.
Isn’t it wonderful that a person could spend four years in a free country and return to a hell hole like Pakistan, and conclude that the entire world should be made into something resembling that paradise on earth, the Swat Valley?
Jamie Irons
“One of my hobbies is studying the Titan-II Mk-6 reentry vehicle from declassified documents.”
*cough*nerd.*cough*
“So office pools get ready. Which day on the calendar will the compromised systems we have fail? Which day will the definitive cyber attack come….”
Put me down for 7/4.
41. Habu
“counterfeit computer chips”
Which brings to mind a story last year. A couple CH-47 helicopters built by Boeing plant here close to Ridley Park, PA, were subtly sabotaged. Investigations were supposedly underway, but nothing ever came out of it (or released to the public).
59. Agoraphobic Plumber
great pick …. and a not nerdy avocation ..I don’t study it myself but I’m sure it’s fascinating..
nerdy is following the smut trail of Paris Hilton or the dirtbag Perez Hilton.
57. Jamie Irons
Wouldn’t have a IRL handy on that would you? I’d like to read it since I too believe we are approaching a tipping point …we’ve just lowered the flaps to 45 degrees, dropped airspeed and have three green ….
DAN #55 ..great article appreciate it
BTW have you tried Tinyurl.com?
It reduces URl’s ..your’s would end up as:
http://tinyurl.com/cc4llt
Best,
Habu
Habu – 12/7? Why would the ChiComs want to give any nod whatsoever to the Japanese? Only reason to pick that date IMO would be to show up the Japanese by way of an exponentially greater victory. But still. It’s based on a date not significant to anyone but the Americans and the Japanese.
Hmmm ….
February 14, 2010.
Chinese New Year. The year of the Tiger.
Also, if you hit in mid-winter, the disruption to heating and electric would likely cause more damage than disrupting the grids during mild seasons. Food shortages also exacerbated if there ain’t even any grass to eat cuz it’s all covered with snow.
Yep sorry – am in mid-brief & pressed but this is a great topic
not least because no matter how many of these headlines go by lately and how their frequency accelerates every live human around me thinks O Well That’s Interesting But Of Course It Means Nothing
well, my bet is there is some central asian calamity pretexting a couple other dominos in the weakened int’l system to be succeeded by a grid-strike in CONUS – which won’t necessarily be planned as the coup de grace but could very depending on how “obvjective conditions” develop in medias.
what’re your thougts habu you’ve got good intel
47. markb & Habu:
Habu: One day they will take down our grid and mass hysteria will ensue.
==========================
markb: The difference this time around is that there will be a new definition of rolling blackout. If you don’t roll over, you will be blacked out. Wow, weaponized utilities.
This technique has already been effectively demonstrated. Saddam Hussein used it to control various troublesome groups and areas of Iraq.
Off Topic: I just finished reading some very depressing comments over at “The Market Ticker”. Our chickens are coming home to roost (it can’t be stopped). It appears that we (as a nation) committed economic suicide over 20 years ago when we converted from a manufacturing based economy to a FIRE economy.
The best Obama, et al can do is kick the can down the road through deceptions and market manipulation. Doing so might buy us a couple months but it won’t stop the collapse.
I see the bullet coming. How do I dodge it?
66. tharkun:
Excellent point ..I know you can extrapolate what would happen to the thin veneer of “civilized” society in this country should that happen here.
Man , you didn’t pick a date……
Habu, if you run Firefox bypass tinyurl and add this Text Formating Toolbar 0.1.4.7 to your browser. Make sure you set the right hand pull down menu to “HTML”.
Oh yeah and put me down for 1/1/2012.
67. Eggplant:
I see the bullet coming. How do I dodge it?
It’s probably too late to buy mass quantities of ammo in the favorite calibers but you could give it a try.
Next on list..buy cases, lots of cases of whiskey, even if you have to rent a garage. It stores well and will always be in demand either as a barter item or for gold ..our fiat money will be useless.
Just a thought..
69. joe buzz:
Thanks, greatly appreciated.
65. dan:
“what’re your thoughts habu you’ve got good intel”
Thanks but I haven’t heard anything outside of what we know on this site. Unfortuneately I can’t “ping” on sources too often. Sometimes it just comes over the transome.
My personal observation is that the bad guys have successfully scared all of our “allies” most of whom have internal Islamic problems.
Then our Resident is eviscerating all the major supports for our society..finance, military ,etc to build the worker’s paradise. We’re isolated and being lead by a man who has no sense of our history, could care less and yet has all the power…at the moment.
Were I our enemy I would use a ME Iran-Isreali battle to grab (in the case of the Sov’s) more former Soviets..obama will send a nasty letter. The Chinese could easily move on Taiwan but that would be pretty bloody so they may simply wait and do to the Taiwanese what they are going to do to us…cut the juice. China wants to complete their blue water navy and that has years to go . In the interim they may simply play with us…a blackout here and there, a crashing of the exchanges for a week….we are a target rich environment with a hand puppet leading us over the cliff.
Never fear if I hear anything I’ll pass it along.
64. bogie wheel
Yep, I snafu’d that date.
Got ya down for 2/14/10
Semper Fi
Habu,
I’ve had terrible luck trying to post URL’s to PJ media comment threads, but I’ll give it a go:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/Coming-Fourth-American-Republi
Jamie Irons
Habu,
It may have worked!
(Just click at the hyperlink “Proceed to this site” as you will no doubt already know)
Jamie Irons
my vote December 18th in the next few years – Stalin’s birthday
April 22, Lenin’s birthday
Sept 11, Felix Dzerzhinsky’s birthday
i figure – why not dec 18? if we make it out of obama’s administration without calamity, however, i will resign myself to having been wrong about all this – and gladly. however, it is not dec. 18 yet.
This is scary stuff. But, I still can’t help wondering how this is in anyone’s interests (except for jihadies).
I mean, what possible interest could China have in disrupting the country that buys most of their goods? Especially since they cannot predict where things will end.
I can see using the capability as a threat, and then to target Taiwan; especially since the timing would be right – weak POTUS (I loved Ralph Peters description of him as a the weakest metrosexual leader this side of a Barney’s mens grooming counter), and a crises in play.
But, ultimately, those in power want wealth – destroying the US, or bringing her ‘to her knees’ serves what purpose? China needs to sell their goods. And, they need to buy food. How does destroying the existing global system help them?
As for the Russians, yes, they may well size up the POTUS and realize they can retake Georgia and the Ukraine without any backlash. But they could do this with this POTUS anyway. If they tried destroying the existing global system, then what? Who would buy their oil? Where is Putin’s real power – the oligarchy? Are they really interested in gaining prestige, but losing everything?
I think both countries benefit from the same system that you guys are claiming they wish to destroy, and I ask, for what purpose?
The jihadies, though, are a completely different case.
Jamie/58; –re the Taliban from Massachusetts, this warm, helpful, fifth columnist Orlov is also from Massachusetts –what the heck (besides John Kerry) is going on in Massachusetts?
The Chinese consider 8 to be a lucky number as against 7 and others.
That’s why Boeing launched the 787 on 08/08/08, August 8, 2008.
So figure on an August 8th date… and the focus would be on fouling up the harvest… There are a million ways to do that and the Chinese are world class masters of screwing up agriculture. They’d be going to what they do best.
Food riots = the end of organized governments anywhere anytime. Just ask France, Russia, Germany and the Hittites of Anatolia. Crop failure subsequent to the 535AD Krakatoa volcanic eruption wiped out governments just about everywhere.
http://www.hbci.com/~wenonah/history/535ad.htm
The Chinese potential for malice against our cereal grains would seem vast.
Instead of stockpiling oil perhaps we should be stockpiling cereal genes and food reserves.
The plain evidence that China is building up her fleet which can only have utility in a direct conflict with America and her interests. It’s worse than a threat: it’s a mistake.
Habu/72; –the ChiCom mils have a name for that low-grade, sub-retaliatory attack: “a thousand grains of sand”.
…of course, it’s when you’re bent over shaking the sand outta your shoe that the tidal wave rolls in.
“It appears that we (as a nation) committed economic suicide over 20 years ago when we converted from a manufacturing based economy to a FIRE economy.”
I have been barking at the moon since the book Mega Trends came out. I have worked around manufacturing for the past 30 years so have a dog in the hunt. Now work strictly defense.
So Mega Trends, my take was; “OK – we are now a service economy? I guess we all become lawyers and pizza delivery men.” ’bout sums it up too.
Oh yeah, what is a Fire economy?
Comatus @ 38,
“Air Force was ready to roll with Cyber Command months ago, to the point that assignments to a new HQ at Barksdale had been cut. In the interregnum, the assignment was yanked, ostensibly as punishment for F-22 intransigence and a loaded-BUFF debacle.”
Thank God! From what I understand, Air Force activation of Cyber Command would have engendered SkyNet’s self-awareness, thus leading to the robots v. humans struggle depicted so accurately in the “Terminator” series of historical documentary films.
In all seriousness, and as long as we’re talking about U.S. aviation conspiracy theories, here’s one I’d like the rocket scientists here to evaluate:
The B-2 bomber’s use of anti-gravity propulsion
It seems to this layman like anti-grav technology would be too revolutionary, too earth shattering in its potential, to be kept quiet for long.
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
Buddy,
You asked: [W]hat the heck (besides John Kerry) is going on in Massachusetts?
…and as a Yalie, I would be almost reflexively tempted to shout Harvard! — but that would be (even more than usually) idiotic coming from me, as our host is a Harvard guy!
Jamie Irons
All i can say, Jamie, is that into every life a little rain must fall, and in this case it falls on us, finding ourselves attracted to a Harvard blog!
AM @84…
Fraud, Insolvency & Revised Earnings…
I am puzzled as is Shivermetimbers, who wrote:
I mean, what possible interest could China have in disrupting the country that buys most of their goods? Especially since they cannot predict where things will end.
Other than they’re Chinese and they like to conquer, what’s the motive? America hardly competes with them at anything. Rather, we fund them and eagerly dismantle our industries to ship them to China. We fire millions of Americans to give work to the Chinese. What’s their game?
If China attacks America and we shoot back (a decision I fear will be made against all protocol by someone in the Defense Department, explicitly against Obama’s orders) and we hurt them, couldn’t that leave a wounded China prey to the Soviets to perhaps finish them off?
I totally respect the brain power assembled here and I would love to hear speculation on why the Chinese would take out America. We already know a lot about how.
Here’s A Marine That Thinks China and Taiwan Will Be Unified Peacefully
Written some years ago, still seems sensible.
Fun, Internet & Royalist Egos
Forget Income, Redouble Expenditures
Jamie Irons
Evidence is, Taiwan and PRC are already mending fences peaceably. The stark results of recent Taiwanese elections, for starters. Why smash up the infrastructure when trade, proximity, and coalescing mutual interests are doing the job?
Essentially none of the significant wars of the Twentieth Century were initiated after a rational analytic process. Quite the reverse was the case.
So you are on very weak ground when you try and use rationality as a decision mechanism.
Japan attacked America even though her Navy’s official position was that she was completely outclassed and would surely lose a long, full-scale war. Crushing Battleship Row, of course, made it impossible for America to fight any other kind of war!
Japan is more relevant than European powers because her culture and mind set is as Oriental as China.
As a full-blooded shame-honor society of the first water, China can be as hot blooded as any power on Earth.
Certainly, she feels that ( like the Kaiser’s Germany ) history has made a mistake and that her proper position of global leadership across the boards has been usurped by a lucky cultural parvenue: America.
Like both Germany (1914) and Japan (1941) China wants direct national ownership of foreign ores and fuels.
A blue water navy is certainly seen as an adjunct to her investment spree. (China is shorting the dollar and going long commodities.)
Economic rivalry can spill over into naval operations very quickly. The prompt rationale would always be couched as defending the national economic interest and the prestige of the State.
90. peterike
Why would the Chinese do it. Same reason man has made war on man like forever …. power.
How much would they give to control the USA, it’s population and productivity all for slave wages? A good deal.
Men have ALWAYS sought to dominate other men.
It is very hard to explain the entire history of man without the nexus being the acquisition of more power, more control, more territory all of which has been acquired by war or the alphas threat of war.
I personally believe that mankind is way too egotistical in believing we will be around forever. Our ride will cease at some point, it’s just that no one can call that shot .. but the end of mankind is out there.
So do you want to “live” in Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s gulag or do you want to die in a global conflagration….personally I’d flip the BIG SWITCH and go all in.
One thing I believe about the Chinese political class, imperial, democratic, or communist, is that they have always craved stability at all costs and have had a ‘pseudo- omnipotence’ over the country. I cannot see how they can be keen on destabilizing the world economic system when they are concerned about keeping up growth to maintain employment for the masses.
That they would want this capability to level the playing field more – yes. That they want to create doomsday, not knowing where things will end, I am skeptical.
F-ed In Rear End
68. Habu: Man , you didn’t pick a date……
I apologize but I’m going to have to hedge my answer a little on this – there are simply too many variables and uncertainty factors in play. Much will depend upon what happens in the US between now and the next election, and to a lesser extent on what the Europeans do as well.
First, while the Russians and the Chinese are ruthless, implacable enemies, they’re not crazy. If it appears going into the 2010 election that Obama, his regime, his sycophantic media and his puppetmasters have successfully snookered, or simply cowed, the American people into submissive acquiescence to their agenda to remake the country, I believe the Chinese and Russians will be content to stick with a long-term plan of gradually building their strength and influence while watching us continue to self-destruct. It is the logical course of action.
If, however, it appears that the American people, by some miracle, are waking up and are about to purge ourselves of our “enemies domestic”, they may feel compelled to make their moves sooner. In either scenario, though, they will act logically and rationally, based on their own cost/benefit analyses.
The wild card, however, is the Islamists, especially once their acquire deliverable nukes and chem/bio weapons. There are indeed some cold, clear-thinking analytical leaders and strategists among them, e.g. Ayman Zawahiri or A.Q.Khan, plus some of the internal Iranian leadership (not the buffoonish puppet Amahdinejad).
However, once their rabid, martyrdom-loving, cannon-fodder, jihadist minions begin to score some spectacular blows and “victories” against infidel targets it’s going to be increasingly difficult for the rational Islamist leaders to keep control of their own fanatic mobs.
While is is true that both totalitarian Leftism and totalitarian Islamism are equally at home and comfortable with killing millions in order to achieve their goals, at least with the Leftists it’s mostly a matter of coldly calculated and perceived ideological necessity, i.e. “you can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs”.
Islam, however, revels in death and killing for its own sake. In their universe, it’s God’s(Allah’s) holy work, by his own commands. At some point, as a resurgent Islamism begins “winning” battles and killing enough of their infidel enemies, the inherent blood-lust which is a conceptually and spiritually integral part of their total being will slip the control of their more rational current handlers. And, to repeat, they’ll have nukes, and chem/bio. Even more ominously than that, though, they’ll have the will, or more precisely, the inescapable compulsion, to use them.
So to get back to your question about the date… /g
My money, and everybody else’s too (whether they believe or not… /grin) is on the Islamist’s abilities and ambitions reaching a “critical mass” and “detonating” somewhere within 12 to 18 months, leading to a cascading series of crises worldwide.
Some of these crises are of course entirely foreseeable, and have been discussed here at length. Some, however, will be complete surprises, especially to the PTB’s who think they’re in charge.
We’re in the realm of Rumsfeld’s “known knowns, known unknowns & unknown unknowns” and are all going to get a brutal reintroduction to the Law of Unintended Consequences. TEOTWAWKI
bob @91…
That white paper is too dated for my taste.
The author accepts the CCP position a priori.
At this point in time one could reasonably argue that Nationalist China would become an undeclared nuclear power in the manner of Israel.
Consequently there is no direct unilateral military threat to Taiwan.
In such a situation the flow of history could remain very, very slow for a very, very long time. The Nationalists may yet have their wish: unification under their own terms.
Right now the CCP is riding its own economic tiger.
Can it survive it’s own-goal economic calamity?
After all, it is due to Party Policy that China over accumulated foreign reserves instead of domestic investments.
Taiwan is just a delightful stalking-horse for the blue water naval build-up. This will prove to be an even worse use of capital.
Never forget, China has blown an insane amount of money on Class A Commercial Real Estate: a 180 month supply! Required rents are completely out of sight relative to local incomes. The Chinese were erecting these office towers expressly for the Western ex-patriate market. There are just not enough Jim Rogers to go around.
Which really means that China has blown out her own banking system, too.
BTW America’s CRE is now in full cratering mode. Now the rest of the banking universe gets to bleed. Total losses must run into the trillions.
Remember, the First Financial World War is just as expensive as prior forms — it’s only the bullets and bodies that are missing.
Regarding the chaotic data input from the jihadis, in a rational world we’d get together with the Chinese and Russians and just say, “hey boys, let’s end this damn Middle East problem once and for all,” go in there and take over all the countries, and divvy up the oil fields three ways. Same thing with places like Nigeria and other resource-rich African chaos-states. Jihadis with nukes isn’t good for any of the Big Three.
End the problem. Re-colonize the backwaters of the world. For everyone living there other than the princely classes, it would likely be a huge improvement. With stable governments and property laws, their economies would grow providing more business for all concerned. China is heading in that direction anyway. It would be a lot less brutal if the US were involved playing the good cop.
Oh but then there’s India…
Well it was a good idea while it lasted, for a total fantasy.
“The B-2 bomber’s use of anti-gravity propulsion”
What would be the purpose of wings? To hide the technology?
“Finance, Insurance and Real Estate” Thanks. Sounds like the non-producers had a coup. I remember someone explaining the service economy to me… I just didn’t get it. But now that we have adopted tree leaves as our national currency, I’d like to let everyone know, we are all quite fabulously rich.
The Reason the Chinese may sabotage and instigate a war with the US.
to #90
The reason why China may attack the US is competition for the same area. The same reason Japan attacked the US, the fear we would interfere in the plans for Manchuria.
China wants domination of the Pacific. The only power that is supreme in the Pacific is the US. China is colonizing African countries for raw resources and building a blue water navy. For some reason China is focused on taking India and the US may put a stop to that. After all we were involved in Vietnam and Korea and so was the Chinese. Both of those countries are client state of the Chinese.
China will absorb Taiwan via apathy and so Taiwan will succumb. Bribery, corruption and intimidation and the Taiwanese will vote to become part of China.
The only country that can has the resources to interfere in China’s drive to dominate the Pacific and SE Asia is the US so they want the means to sabotage us and prevent us from having that ability. China is not an ally or an enemy but a competitor that can become an enemy. They will gladly have us finance the military and do all the design work and R&D for them and have us succumb to weaknesses and unable to make an effect against their plans
Thanks for the explanations. I’ll have good answers when I am asked why I shouted FIRE in a crowded movie theater.
RAH, they’re not even having to steal a march –we’re handing it to ‘em, 2008-2012.
Well, yesterday president O, keeping his promisess here and there, got the Obama youth organization going.
Instapundit links thru to Nick Gillespie –whose language re Americorps is inspired and will tickle you despite yourself.
oops. try:
http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/77187/
oh, and to the “dirtbag perez hilton” ref upthread, kudos, i agree 1000% –wot a total jerk. may Miss California have a long and happy life, three cheers for her.
The best way to secure our systems is with red teams. This is true of many issues. The owners of the data will be more frightened of the red teams than they are of the foreign spies, because the red teams will rat them out.
…the Ham radio folks will be especially interested in these thoughts on the Morgan Hill attack.
Morgan Hill IIRC is associated with the Echelon Net.
Very interesting, no?
mercy
I’d say that’s what brought out the rash of official commentary about cyber-warfare and the establishment of the new USAF cyber-command.
Whether we’re being gamed by the Chinese — it seems patent — or not, we’ve got to curry-comb our systems and methods as there is a disturbance in the correlation of forces.
I’d say that a hot cyber-war is already under way.
Further, that the CCP and the Soviet Mafia have integrated financial and economic warfare stratagems into their operational art.
I see links to the corruption of the DTCC and SEC in this sour brew.
I no longer view AfPak or Iraq as the primary theatre of conflict.
blert, up on drudge now;
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D97PHLVO0&show_article=1
and keep in mind Madoff –the “ties to russian mob and latino narco cartels” –as well as Stanford’s island bank, with similar ‘ties’ –per news reports.
also, deep capture i note today has a new look (haven’t looked in awhile) –i’m sure you saw the stories there about nancy’s daddy’s old sporting pals the genoveses and their wall street capers. Mario Puzo still around, i wonder –time for another saga. location shooting this time not Sicily but maybe the poppy fields.