What spells the doom of dictators? Nobody really knows, and there are so many “whats” that the whole subject defies quantification. Coups and assassinations, revolutions, defeats in war, and even sudden collapses, are all to be found in the texts, ancient and modern. Even those of us who have predicted the fall of tyrannies, as I did in the case of the Soviet Empire, are surprised when it happens, and almost always fail to foresee how it happens.
Indeed, it’s the wrong question. Since there are so many variations, and since one tyrant may survive a crisis that would bring down another dictator, we should ask specific questions about specific tyrants, and use historical examples of similar situations to guide our understanding.
Some years back, when I was working with Walter Laqueur, I asked him what he was reading, and he said something like “I mainly read biographies.” A good lesson there; some dictators will fall in crisis, while others grow stronger and more resolute. Which sort are we dealing with in a given case? So the question is not, what brings down dictatorships in general, but “how likely is this tyrant to fall?” We have to look carefully at the unique characteristics of a given dictatorship, and avoid the fruitless search for “rules.”
Finally, don’t forget that the Almighty put us on earth for entertainment value. Most of the time we’re likely to get it wrong. How many of us expected Qadaffi to fight to the death? How many expected Gorbachev and his Soviet Empire to implode without a fight? We’re usually not smart enough to foresee such things.
That is why the nose, not the brain, is the greatest instrument for sensing when a regime is in danger of coming down. The nose detects the first hints of rot, which generally attend an imminent failure of will by the ruler. Ergo, we need to pay particular attention to the odors of the tyrant him/herself, and the nature of his/her tyranny. While there are no general rules, there are some patterns that might help us answer — or sniff out — the right questions. If we even ask them.
I’m always intrigued when somebody thinks he or she can confidently predict that a tyrant is about to fall, as if it’s all a question of applying the good old manual. I’ve been intrigued for months now, as expert upon expert tells us that Bashar Assad of Damascus is going down. Just the other day, no less a pundit than Dennis Ross, recently retired from the Obama administration, let us know that he is quite confident about it:
This is a regime that is entirely dependent on coercion, and the coercion is failing, and when a regime is entirely dependent on coercion that is not succeeding, you know that that’s a regime that’s not going to be around for an extended period.
I wish! Let’s take just two counter-examples from Syria’s neighbor, Iran. In 1953, Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeqh drove the shah into foreign exile, and millions marched through the streets of Tehran and other major Iranian cities to celebrate Mossadeqh’s victory. Yet the shah quickly returned, and Mossadeqh was removed, and millions marched to celebrate that event, just days after the pro-Mossadeqh parades. So regimes can fall and rise again.
More recently, in the summer of 2009, millions of Iranians took to the streets to protest the electoral fraud that retained Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the presidential office. The regime unleashed coercion, but the demonstrations continued. Just as in Syria today, the coercion wasn’t working; if anything, it was provoking even greater challenges to the regime’s legitimacy. The regime cracked down harder, dissidents were arrested, tortured, and slaughtered, and the regime survived…for an “extended period.”
There are plenty of such examples, including the “Prague Spring” of 1968, where coercion failed for a while, but then succeeded. And there are other cases, such as the failed “color revolutions” in some former Soviet satellites, where it seemed tyranny had been defeated, but it came back. Ask Putin and Medvedev how that one works. Ask the Lebanese, while you’re at it. Or the Egyptians.
Michael,
How dare you question the ability of Ross, etc., to accurately predict the end of the Assad regime? Our establishment also excels at predicting when Third World regimes will field nuclear weapons.
In seriousness, thank you for this post. It is very appropriate for the sixth night of Hanukkah.
Hanukkah Samayach, especially to any currently deployed Ledeens.
tks. chag hanukkah sameyach to you and yours. and merry christmas, may God bless us, every one.
The “winner”, in ALL these arab countries, is always the islamic jihadists, by whatever name. We are better off with the dictators than with the Moslem Brotherhood, CAIR, and other manifestations of that criminal conspiracy known as Islam. The secular, among my fellow jews, do not seem to realize that Islam; not Terrorism, is our enemy. Perhaps that is because they place no real importance on religion and, projecting, feel that no one else does, either. If we do not wake up and pre-emptively take out Iran, they will, as they have repeatedly promised to do- take us out. What’s your choice?
Islamism is also big business for men who are little better than con artists and thugs. While some do in fact go crazy, shoot rockets and commit murder/suicides, many just go through the motions to attract Gulf money or Western payoffs to not kill people.
Some are suggesting that the bombings in Iraq are Shia who are wanting the now gone American money they were paid to not kill people. In that case the low man dies in suicide bombings or at least takes risks and the high man collects millions in payoffs. It is big business and America is one of the biggest payers.
“Instead of reading tea leaves, our leaders would do better to try to win. But don’t hold your breath.”
I’d suffocate before they did something right. “Win” is not in this crowd’s vocabulary, along with words like “victory.”
You’re right about the focus in the tyrants, rather than tyranny, Michael. I remember seeing news about the revolution in Romania. The look in Ceausescu’s face on the balcony was pure fear — he’d broken.
right you are, spook. but hey, nothing new there. thanks for weighing in. Happy New Year!
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and a Happy New Year to your and yours, too.
You said, “‘Win’ is not in this crowd’s vocabulary, along with words like ‘victory.’”
The word is in their vocabulary, and they believe that they’re winning. It’s just that, the way they use it, it does not mean what we think it means.
The Romanians knew exactly what to do with Ceausescu and his wife both. Kill them quick.
“If you shoot at a king, you must kill him.”
Wish charismatic people like you and John Bolton would be in charge of the next administration’s (hopefully anyone except Obama) foreign policy.
john would be great. i’m a terrible bureaucrat. i proved it!
Newt is already talking about Bolton being his secretary of state
Is Bashar – I’ve got a Hitler mustache – Assad about to go down?
Yep … he sure is. Ross is right about that one; though I suspect it will be sooner than she thinks and she could add Aimanutjob to the list. Syria and Iran think they got the world by the short-hairs, but they’ve forgotten one thing – the account of the Biblical king Abimelech. It doesn’t always take an army to slay a ‘king’ and turning against your own people portends a very grim future; a future that neither Assad and Aimanutjob don’t see because in the end, evil is NOT creative, and all it can see is the past which is why it repeats itself over and over. Same tyrants … different day. Syria and Iran … next up.
The problem, especially and particularly in the Middle East, is what replaces the old tyranny once it falls (or is forced out, in the case of Egypt).
Anyway, Happy Hannukka to you and yours, sir.
Look hard for “The Lost Crusade: America in Vietnam” by Chester L. Cooper.
Just as it is difficult to get over losses (just ask the French after their history since Napoleon’s retreat from Russia), it is necessary.
FDR had some interesting ideas, and they are in the book, plus they shine light on an alternative to the scenario you communicate. Needless to say, he kept them to himself, thereby keeping Truman out of the loop.
Because the United States policy in the Middle East has been such an outstanding success that it should continue indefinitely. Especially the part about arming “rebels” to overthrow the “old order”. It worked so well in Libya recently after all and our involvement in Afghanistan in the 1980′s is still yielding big dividends today. Just ask those people in the world trade center on 11-9-2001 and our military.
Whats even better is with the help of our allies in Pakistan, the ISI, shoddy control over nuclear warheads and an open border with Mexico we can look forward to an even brighter future (about 1,000,000 suns worth) thanks to the efforts of the 1980′s CIA and the current administration and congress.
I’m exited… change is coming… believe…
Why do some tyrants fall nd others do not? Mugabe in Zimbabwe. Kim Jong Il in North Korea. Bashir in Sudan. Despots who make Ahmadinejad and Assad look like amateurs. There is indeed a pattern, a formula. Tyrants fall when they cease to be utterly ruthless: kill, torture, and starve early and late, never let up. It works as well in today’s advanced technological culture as it has over the millenia. We do a lot of preening over “bringing down” Gaddafi, who was like Mother Teresa compared to the cited three. He “fell” because he was not sufficiently dedicated to killing his dissidents.
I confidently predict that if Assad and Ahmadinejad keep on killing their opposition they will not fall and the rest of the world will do nothing but lament, scold and “apply sanctions.” The UN has been, between banquets, chiding General Bashir for yearsfor killing hundred of thouands of opponents in Darfur. He delivered his response this week. A true tyrant retains power only through an all-permeating fear of the certainty of cruelty or death. He can be brought down only by determined superior attack from outside or betrayal by his own military. That’s why they keep on killing their own generals. Only if the two A’s let up on the killing and imprisonments can you start laying bets on timing.
Certainly, all tyrannies come to an end. Tight secrecy is also a part of the pattern. As you say, speculation is a waste of effort since, even if we had a timetable for the fall, we wouldn’t do anything about it.
Michael,
Thank you for another excellent post. I think the first step in constructing a realistic foreign policy is the recognition that some states are “better” than others. This is something that the present administration does not seem to grasp. From the perspective of President Obama, I suspect, he sees no moral distinction between Israel and Iran, or between the United States and Syria. We are all equally guilty of evil.
If you accept this premise, you are incapable of making moral distinctions and hence, incapable of acting appropriately when the time is right. As you have mentioned, the time for Obama to have stood up and articulated the cause of justice was when the Iranian people took to the streets to protest against the fraudulent elections. Instead, he sided with the serial killers who run the country. This shows you the moral confusion that results from an inability to grasp this simple premise: Some cultures are superior to others, and they have an obligation to stand up for the principles that make them superior.
Obama doesen’t understand this, and that is why he is incapable of making the important decisions that need to be made to advance human civilization instead of retarding it.
Natan Sharansky referred this type of judgement as “moral compass”. It is really the first thing a wise electorate looks for in a leader. In 2008 the electorate preferred sexiness to moral compass.
If President Obama believes that attacking Iran’s nuclear program will help his reelection chances, he’ll do it. He may do the right thing for the wrong reasons. I suspect, also, that Israeli leaders recognize a sort of trip wire as Iran moves closer to completing a nuclear weapon. When Iran reaches point “x” the Israelis will respond with reaction “y”. At this point the US will be forced to support Israel as the Iranians attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Obama simply won’t have a choice.
What Mr. Williamson said…
Plus it behooves one’s own nation to make clear to the dick-tators, do as you like to your own people. But if you mess with us… and mean it. Isn’t that what diplomats are for?
it’s what leaders are for…
“it’s what leaders are for…”
No disrespect intended, Mr. Ledeen. But I don’t think so. Leaders are the ones who dish out the public pabulum like ,”We strongly condemn…” or “Make no mistake…,” or “We will never tolerate…” or “… is unacceptable,” etc. Diplomats are the ones who, out of range of cameras, microphones, etc. tell the guy where the redlines are. For example, April Glaspie’s screw up with Saddam Hussein is arguably what created the first Gulf War. Presumably, leaders are the ones who must act on such transgressions. But only when they can make good excuses (after the diplomatic mistakes) and their own military and bankers support them. People like me never get to know what’s really happening in the corridors of power, because it’s all hidden behind leaders’ smiley faces, self-serving justifications and diplomats’ lies.
disagreement is not a sign of disrespect. on the contrary, thoughtful comments such as yours are most welcome here.
Words matter. It’s amazing, but not surprising, that people like Dennis Ross shoot off at the mouth without realizing they might be succoring the enemy. And, if he does know it, then he’s a —
Michael, it seems as if we are in sync in at least two basic ways. I also learned that reading biographies beats most other types of reading, especially fiction. I recall being blown away by the life of Frederick the Great. Napoleon’s life story was quite edifying, and a bunch of books on Hitler served my ongoing education, as well.
Too, this world and my part in it is a lot about entertainment. Bread and circuses. Court Jesters and clowns.
However, I think it’s more about learning lessons—that’s the conclusion I’ve come to. Each mysterious instant of our being alive is all about facing challenges, and the bottom line is that we are constantly forced to make a choice. One choice after another, the passage of time ineluctably results in any present moment—that’s karma.
I choose to read and be edified by you, among other writers I’ve previously chosen to read—sifted from many others, I’ve thrown away as unworthy of my precious time and attention.
Keep up the good work—and thanks for everything!
thanks so much. and don’t forget that most of the time we’re going to make a mess. even the best of us…
As a mathematician, I am at a loss to understand much about politics, because it seems to be full of axioms, and at the same time greatly suffer from a penury of theorems, just the opposite of my discipline! This why I am an avid reader of Michael Ledeen, who knows so much about things that so neatly align with the blind spots of my profession.
So, reading this article, I was particularly interested in Dr. Ledeen’s arguments against trying to predict the fall of dictators. Tracing the path of his logic, I kept noticing the parallel with our inability to predict earthquakes: We can say sensible things about the probability of earthquakes, but we can’t say much of anything useful about their time schedules. We only know that one earthquake can precipitate the triggering of another, because the seismic waves propagate within certain limits, and can push some other nearby latent earthquake over its threshold of instability, therefore triggering an another release of a huge amount of latent energy.
And then, in the last paragraphs of the article, Dr. Ledeen mentions the case of one particular tyrant falling in the aftermath of an earthquake, as if vindication my own extrapolation! This is all very similar to what is known in material science a “brittle fractures”, the sudden failure of some solid structure (like a ceramic material, or a tyranny), as a rapid cascade of local failures, progressing faster than alternate stress paths can develop, as would be the case in a more resilient structure, like a modern society for instance, with a government constrained by popular voice.
This puts me in full agreement with Dr. Ledeen’s point: We would waste our time trying to predict the fall of dictators, but we can invest our energy in shifting the probabilities towards accelerating it, mostly by bringing whatever support we can muster to the internal oppositions to the tyrants. I can only join the chorus: “Faster please”. Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas to all.
many thanks for a most fascinating and stimulating comment, PRof.
That is a fine addition to Ledeen’s fine essay, Professor G.
You’re asking the wrong question.
The question should be: Who will replace him when he’s gone?
The answer, sadyly, is: The Muslim Brotherhood.
So, yes, he’s a monster. Always has been. What will replace him will be far worse – for the people of Syria and for US national interests. So, why would anyone want him gone?
it all depends on how he falls and what role, if any, we play, both during and after.
The Muslim Brotherhood, the Chicago Cubs of the middle east that hasn’t done squat in over 80 years. For some reason in the West, this translates into “Here come the New York Yankees.” Anyway, thanks for not saying Syria is the next Iran, the least nuanced yet most popular drivel to emerge from the Western view of the “Arab Spring.”
Nobody wants to be the next Iran, just like nobody wanted to be the next Albania in the old days…
The comment wasn’t about that: it was about people insisting on making authoritative statements about a region they clearly no little about. Americans are experts on everything nowadays; a keyboard and sheer intellect say so. Muslims are all the same and never disagree about anything and all have each others phone numbers and are as easy to predict as Laurel and Hardy. And oh, here’s come Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. The Fantastic Four comic has more nuance.
When (or if) the Assad regime crumbles, it will be very interesting to find out if there is any truth to the rumor that Syria was used as Saddam’s WMD stash. Hopefully there is some sort of contingency plan in place if Assad was holding onto Saddam’s WMD stockpiles. It was bad enough when thousands of MANPADs went missing in Libya…nerve gas going missing from Syria would be downright scary.
WAS SYRIA’S BASHAR ASSAD COMPLICIT WITH AL QAIDA IN 9/11?
There wasn’t a scintilla of evidence linking Syria with Al Qaida and 9/11 until John Crewdson, a senior correspondent of the Chicago Tribune, claimed to have obtained a “classified report from the office of German Chancellor Angela Merkel” stating (among other things) that Mohammed Atta and the leaders of the mass causality attack placed 66 calls to Syria after they’d arrived in this country. The report was given to Cresson in early March shortly before the eruption of Arab Spring protests against Bashar al-Assad. To date, however, the hijackers connection to Syria has not been explained. However, while hard evidence linking Assad to 9/11 is still lacking there are compelling signs suggesting an operational connection in a way similar to my discoveries joining Kaddafy to the Pan Am/Lockerbie bombing. But before I delve into these signs let’s briefly review what is known about Assad’s connection to al-Qaida in the post-9/11 era………………….
Click my name to continue reading article found on the Featured Posts section of my blog.
this is off topic and constitutes spam. sorry, don’t do it again please.
The axis Iran-Syria-Lebanon and the axis Iran-Venezuela are too important for the international subversives. This administration of hard-core internationalists is not going to do anything to hinder Iran and/or Syria.
For now we can only dream of Bolton at the State Dept., watch the massacres in Syria…and the evolutions of the Iranian fleet around Hormuz…
The Freedom Fighters around the world owe you a lot, Mr. Ledeen.
The only thing I want is for them to win. Then I can spend more time in and on Italy…
“But if we continue to betray freedom in Syria…..”
I’m not so sure we are seeing freedom in any of the Arab Springs to date. So, how the notion that by supporting the Syrian opposition, we will end up with a Free Syria. Looks to me like we will end up with a radical Islamic Syria, as looks like is happening in the other Arab Spring countries.
I agree Obama is the weakest president in history.
Did you catch his remarks comparing himself to Lincoln? He is also the nuttiest president in history, the most devoid of moral compass, and his egotism makes it impossible to learn because he already knows everything and never makes mistakes. All of which was clear before he was elected.
Hell of a condition for any country to be in let alone the “leader” of the free world.
every one of these things has its own dynamic;
it is possible that the Free Syria Movement will be a decent post regime change steward, and if so, that the extended time that this Movement has been active will increase their clout against the other groups that are maneuvering for a post Assad future
it is also possible (I’ve made this point before) that the extended and bloody end to the Assad dynasty will make more manifest, the aid that Hezbollah and the various Mullah agents have given Assad;
The good science-loving professor’s comparison with earthquake prediction is flawed because science can point very exactly to position and changes in pressures and probabilities of the nature and range of consequence. Political history and intelligence practices can offer no measure of probability. Science informs us on a daily basis on seismic stress factors but when the quake hits the west coast, the time will be so short that nothing can be done to prevent or effectively reduce the carnage. I too respect Mr. Ledeen’s knowledge and concerns. I just don’t perceive how “leaders” can provide any effective support to rebels within a closed tyranny in a degree that would defeat or restrain the tyrant. Any overt action to provide arms would certainly ratchet up the oppression and killing of protesters.
I ask the same questions I asked months ago, and no aid has been forthcoming: How do you get arms past borders to those that would use them? What, otherwise, can foreign Leaders do to bring an end to the tyranny? Rules of war prevent openly providing arms or invasion. If the U.S. were to decide to disregard International law, what wold it gain for the protesters beyond certain death and the havoc of full-scale war? If there has been one thing that recent history has made clear, it is that those who take arms against tyranny for noble and/or humanitarian reasons do little to ameliorate the problems and generate no praise, within or outside the tyrant’s realm, and criticism and abuse from their own people and those nations who simply stand by. I would like to hear some specifics. If we are criticizing inaction we should offer plausible alternative strategies. Faster please on what plan?
In answer to you questions; “How many of us expected Qadaffi to fight to the death? How many expected Gorbachev and his Soviet Empire to implode without a fight?” At least one, me. When the Berlin wall went up the USSR went wobbly. It took another 30 yrs but it crashed under its own weight. I knew the time was near when Gorbachev was trying to paddle, bail and steer all at once. With Qadaffi it was clear that he believed his own press.
I don’t have a good feeling about Syria, Assad stays or goes the, the outcome is the same, the world gets another failed Muslim state.
The Dictators Handbook does an excellent job of describing how Tyrants stay in power
http://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/161039044X (not an affiliate link)
Most of the credit goes to the Americans, whose inventions have allowed third-worlders to realize what they suspected: That they lived in hellholes created by dictators.
America invented the Internet, the cell phone, the PC, social networking software (e.g., Facebook), etc.
Without these tools, dictators would have a much heavier boot on the necks of most humans.
There is one simple reason to ‘regime change’ Syrian regime: Their role in killing US and coalition troops in Iraq from 2003 to 2009. That should be enough a reason to get Assad out of office by any means possible.
Dear Mickael
You have selected a topic to discuss with a very extensive varieties of political, economical and cultural concepts.
Each Tyrant comes into power in a nation with its specific cultural, economical and plotical structure and values. The period during which a dictator can sustain to the power depends on numerous exclusive factors of the nation he rules such as:
- Literacy degree of the population, particularly lower layers.
- Social structure of the nation.
- Family dominant cultrue in which the childeren imbibe it during their growth perid.
- Relegious beleives and values of a nation particularly those relayes to commons of the societies.
- History of the nations and forms of institutionalizing of power in their society.
- Social tolerance of a nation in listining to critisizm and admittin to its weak points. (sincerity of nations)
- Degree of accessing international information and knowledge such as bluges, media etc.
with regarding to the above factors, definitely we will agree upon this fact that dictators in different terriroties they rule, do not necesaarily have the same faith . Some rule over nations with strong fundamental relegious beleives (Egypt), while some others rules a nation which have been brain washed idiologically (N. Korea)
But the main problem they face to perpetuate their dictatorship is their degree of changes they require to shift in their political behaviour and their lack of flexibility to accept such changes when they face new demands from intellectuals to share powers in the form of political parties.
This will push them to brutal acts such as execution of dissidents, torture and massacre of people. The result of this brutality directly affects the majority of people and in next phase the supporters of the dictators to doubt and question the values ,relegion and idiology the dictators advocated as a weapon against any internal and external enemies (Iran, Syria)to prolong their ruling period.
Once people lose their faith to the values and old beleives the totalitarian regimes defended for their own sake, the dictators becomes like a lit candle in front of a closed window which will be opened by a strong wind.
With all due respect to your comment here, I must say that it sounds wishful thinking and too simplistic. Dictators regardless of culture of the people they rule, stay in power NOT because they have been able to advocate and enforce their own ideology of hate be it now presented in Islam or whatever else, but because of use of FORCE and that is it. It is happening in Iran, Syria and North Korea. In N. Korea they forced with an iron fist an army of people, old, young, children, women and men to cry out loud for the death of the dictator. The same happens in Iran. Those poor souls follow NOT because of their faith, but because of their need for survival. It happens anywhere the rule is totalitarian.
Just one example in Iran, people are anything but faithful when it comes to the cult that is called Islam being shoved down their throats. Many people have burned Koran in the past several years who ended up getting into big trouble with the torturous regime. There are tens of people who get arrested, tortured, and killed because of their disgust and deviation from the faith the dictators want to shove down people’s throat. There are hundreds of people everyday who secretly denounce their faith and embrace Christianity, Buddhism, or even Judaism who face similar faith: arrest and torture and death. If anything the culture and history of the people is SECULAR faith of friendship and tolerance towards neighbors, friends and even foes.
So it is not the faith of the nation or culture which determines the shape of the dictatorship, but instead it is world politics that determines it.
If it was not for the policies of the world towards the dictatorship of the Kim Jong II, or the Islamic regime or the Assad regime, or others like them, none of these dictatorships and totalitarian regimes would have been in power now.
The nations of all these countries are helpless people under severe repression and aggression of their ruling regimes, many with more strength, courage and vision than any one of us who simply need our backing support.
Who is there to listen? Our World today is nothing but a morally corrupt stage in which all the chess games in it seems to be set in advance by the powers who see their strength in control of $$$, while the people in it are kept captive.
Thanks for your comments but I would like to refresh your memory of the first days of Iranian revolution through which the relegious groups came into power. Iranian People depicted their hate toward Shah’s dictatorship in a land slide demonstration of Ashoorah 10th of Moharram 1979. Among all potential democratic optiones and solutions the people could select institutionalization of the power in the form of parties but they selected dictatorship of Khomeini, a Shii hard liner, who brutally killed and executed all of his opponent after comming into power. He didn’t face any resistance from the same people who overthrowned his predecesor dictator since he was using the same weapon against his opponent. That weapon which legitimised him to come to the power was “relegion & relegious beleif of the Iranians”. What I want to say is that Dictators have not been born to be dictator, a process during their ruling and the people attitudes toward them make them to be dictatorts.
If people revolted against Khomeini at the very beginning of his dictatorship by monitoring his performance through parliment or any other institution, he would never become a dictator, but he had his “relegion” sword in his hand to beheat whoever questioned his performance as he named himself the surregator of the last profit Mohammad.
You will see later in Egypt the same process. The Ekhwanol muslemin and Salafid won the recent election and they will rule over the country. They have acheived a chance to make their promisses come true. But sooner they find it dificult to deal with enourmous problems they will face. The corruption will be another factor to dwindle their management power. due to this inefficiencies, they will creat a mockery “enemies” and blame them for all unfortunate stuff happened to the nations. This justification will be the preliminary step of a dictatorship which will be continue with suppressive brutality, emprisonment of dissident and …..
I beleive that dictatorship is a process through which an individual or group of people in the form of a party or fraternity comes into unquestinable power with the support of the same nation revolted against their predecesors.
To topple dictators, the nation’s knowledge and culture should be promoted to avoid emitional revolts which will lead them to jump from one dictatorship into another dictatorship.
The problem is the vulgar Marxism of the sniveling class: the goal is to manage conflict rather than work for a goal.
It is like a self-licking ice cream cone: you keep your job which never ends.
Part of the issue is the Precautionary Principle, believing that what might could come later might, at long odds, be indescribably (literally) worse.
I think it would be fund to find out, but my paycheck does not depend on managing mullahs.
Michael,
When it comes to predicting the collapse of any form of government there are very few models that can apply to more than one at a time. I wish I could claim that American government experts understand this but they have an almost perfect record for being wrong. More often than not they model based on “desired outcome” rather than actual elements in play.
I have a prediction model that applies to almost totalitarian regimes, that is:
When the current life of the citizenry is perceived as worse than the consequences of rebellion, the population will overthrow the dictator. Such change comes in an irresistable tide.
I witnessed such an evolutionary change in the Philippines first hand back in 1986. Marcos’ feared police and military dropped their guard and sided with the population. Martial Law ended at that moment and all the Marcoses could do was look for a safe place to land.
There are many variables that apply to this and all it really identifies is the tipping point where action and defeat become inevitable. Culture, history and internal relationships matter strongly in every case; as do other elements identified by you and other commentors.
Failure to understand the specific variables driving the tides of change in each country is why American Foreign policy almost always fails. Most irritating is the fact the in every case some aware intelligence operative saw it coming, predicted the outcome, and wrote all of it down in advance – but the leadership in this country refused to believe the report, or overruled the findings based on their “superior pedigree.”
yes there is always “someone” who sees–or smells–it coming. the problem for the policy makers is to distinguish between those who’ve got it right and those who don’t. it’s what the great Roberta Wohlstetter once described as distinguishing the main signal from the background noise. it’s not easy.
Dear Michael: How Iran’s destiny might have changed had our feckless president did something more than hide under the table when Iran’s citizens hit the streets. Oh well.
All of obamas mentors were socialists and this might go a long way towards explaining his voting present so often and his persistent doubling down on failed policies. The inevitability of history is an article of their faith. Obama sincerely believes that it is in the cards for socialism emerge victorious eventually. Millions dying is necessary in their view to establish the ideal socialist state as we have seen over and over. They never tire of insisting that next time they will get it right. In their world view time is on their side. The TV series with the borg has an eerie similar message “it is useless to resist, you will be assimlated”.
“This is a regime that is entirely dependent on coercion, and the coercion is failing, and when a regime is entirely dependent on coercion that is not succeeding, you know that that’s a regime that’s not going to be around for an extended period.”
You’re quite sure Ross was talking about Syria?
yes, the whole interview was about Syria.
So where’s the Tahrir Square of Aleppo and Damascus which together make up 5 times the population of Homs? No. Ross is wrong. Something else is going on here.
maybe if the Egyptian Army had slaughtered the demonstrators, Egypt would look more like Syria. As I said, people make decisions…sometimes good ones, sometimes bad ones, and sometimes you just can’t tell, even years later.
850 dead in Egypt in only 18 days says they did shoot down demonstrators. Compare that statistic in time to Syria and I think you’ll find it even worse. Relatively speaking, Syria is not slaughtering any more demonstrators than Egypt did; Syria’s revolt is just lasting much longer.
So, if Syria is not killing more demonstrators on a weekly basis, where is the Tahrir moment in Aleppo and Damascus? Syria is not united against Assad at nearly the level they were against Mubarak.
but the syrian army are firing artillery into city centers. as yet i don’t see that in Egypt.
The real subject here is, Why do oppressive states fall? The question is like ” Why do marriages fail?” The answer is” Who knows? It is very complex. There are no easy answers. We can only speculate. Or postulate. Or hypothecate. And commentate.” I’m sorry. I’m off the subject. I thought you meant REAL tyrannies, like North Korea, Sudan and Zimbabwe,
white tiger: this is not a blog on the 2012 election. sorry, but there are lots of places for you to post that sort of comment. not here.
Is Hamas’ looking for support from other countries any indication of the downfall of the Assad regime? Do the Sunni majority countries want him and Hamas to fail as they are backed by Shiite Iran?
Hi Michael. If those who govern were serious about governing, they would do more than pay lip service to the Sakharov doctrine.
oh they’re serious enough. it’s just that they don’t agree with us.
An interesting answer. I daresay it is this: They are petrified of changing their tune because they fear they would be mere nanometres away from the event horizon of a black hole.
All they had done up to that point would be discredited.
So, when we get to why they disagree with us, then a large step would have been
made towards a better future.
Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous, and Iran will be the most dangerous evil if their regime achieves the Nuclear weapon. Iran is the main axis of evil.
Between the Tehran’s regime and the entire world is blood bath, all the world has to decide to erase this filthy and evil regime from the earth, the Iranian nation ready to help the united world Army to Topple down the Tehran regime.
This regime is responsible in 9/11 attacks and ought to pay and punish by the dooms death, coward democrats can’t do this act, just neocons and eagles and pentagon and European union and united armies can do this , so start another fireworks above the Iran’s sky and force the mullah’s to looking rat holes.
Faster please
With all due respect, I think the same senarios you have proposed were implemented in Iraq and Afghanistan 8 years ago. Looking at those countries now, In Iraq :Fighting, political instability and bomb blasting just started after the last numbers of US troops left the country / in Afghanistan: Taliban is still recounted as number one potential power which made the central US backed up government officially start negotiation to share power witht them, but failed.
Using what you called “world forces” to uprout the suppresive regimes to rescue their nations will have much worst consiquenses internally, regionally and internationally. It creats national hates against invaders which takes long to cure.
The best ways to topple dictators is through unification of all layers of the nations by having a road map to revolt against them.
I would like to make you ensured that Iran is no dangerous to the world, but a serious danger to its own people inside and if the international community would like to get rid of this regime, they should support Iranian dissident movements’ riots instead of sending troops to uproot it physically. The level of mismanagement inside Iranian governemt is so high that even they won’t dare to use their Nuke bombs against any country even if they access it.
Iranian government is getting weaker and weaker day by day internally;desparately failed to tackle numerous domestic economical and finatioanl problems. Such financially weak regime is not able to threat anyone but its own people.
It seems you are a prophet! So do me a favor and do correct prophecy for the future, please. Do you really think this evil regime is exactly like the North Korean version?!
If this regime grab the nuke they never launch by themselves, their panders and pimps will do that and send that dirty bomb in a hidden place somewhere in Washington or Tel Aviv (Arab …ucked mouth terrorists).as the same occurred without any control of N.S.A or C.I.A in 9/11 and naive American did see unbelievable horrible with their eyes! And the financial problems and sanctions just only a best time break for this regime as the same way did for Saddam!
With all due respect, you talk exactly like the Jimmy Carter! So please do not fill the pharmacy dispense for IRAN. How much the democratic movements could topple down the Nazi’s and Fascism in Italy or in Deutschland? Or Communism? How much? And who could? Except a super power with ordered military carpet bombing.
I don’t know who you are, but never forget that a more powerful force just only can defeat another power. Go and read some history and some chess challenge. And I want and request politely from the doctor Ledeen this good student of Machiavelli and Mussolini academy to teach better and more clear the methods of fascism and power components to his students on this blog. Yeah
It seems you are a prophet! So do me a favor and do correct prophecy for the future, please. Do you really think this evil regime is exactly like the North Korean version?
If this regime grab the nuke they never launch by themselves, their panders and pimps will do that and send that dirty bomb in a hidden place somewhere in Washington or Tel Aviv (Arab …ucked mouth terrorists).as the same occurred without any control of N.S.A or C.I.A in 9/11 and naive American did see unbelievable horrible with their eyes! And the financial problems and sanctions just only a best time break for this regime as the same way did for Saddam!
With all due respect, you talk exactly like the Jimmy Carter! So please do not fill the pharmacy dispense for IRAN. How much the democratic movements could topple down the Nazi’s and Fascism in Italy or in Deutschland? Or Communism? How much? And who could? Except a super power with ordered military carpet bombing.
I don’t know who you are, but never forget that a more powerful force just only can defeat another power. Go and read some history and some chess challenge. And I want and request politely from the doctor Ledeen this good student of Machiavelli and Mussolini academy to teach better and more clear the methods of fascism and power components to his students on this blog. Yeah
tks
Let us profoundly hope that the Iranian nazi ruling clique becomes so intoxicated by its own lies and bombast that they actually *do* close the Straits of Hormuz. Casus belli right there. In the event, we should not bother striking at their navy or even at their nukes;
strike at the r e g i m e. Hard, relentlessly, and with no warning.
In fact, wouldn’t it be possible to goad the ayatollahs into making exactly that misstep?
There’s trouble in Iran.
It’s not their regime or other political phenomenon; it’s their historic chauvinism stupidity. Their damn stupid mind.
Their damn dead past retrospect. They want to establish imperialism! And role the Middle East and even Asia. This thought is in all Iranians head. Their hopeless insane king (shah) had catched this mental illness before, this laughing sickness. And now this damn mullah’s intend to install Islamic kind of it!
Their damn past history, that crushed very badly by Alexander the great, Roman legions, Arabian Islamic invaders, Genghis Khan, Timur the Lame, afghan invaders, Russian tsar, and Saddam Hussein. That was the hate of other nations and defeated this theocratic tyranny.
So now what other nations and U.S.A have to do? If this evil tyranny do not crush by military strike, It will appear and masquerade itself in a hidden dirty nuke. So be aware of this Iranian dragon. Their evil gang and revolutionary guards have to crush by military attack and completely destroy. And this regime should send to hell. They never stop to conspire and devilry against the global peace. There’s an anxious that after explosion a dirty nuke somewhere in globe, waken of the world actually arouse!
That gulf is not Persian, they don’t deserve it, it’s Arabian Gulf. And it’s not theirs it’s the properties of king Abdullah, king of Saudi Arabia. Iran should disintegrate and decompose and cut into piece by piece, this is not country it is a pyramid of tyrannical power, some tribes that integrated by tyrant’s swords into a fake name country. These tribes and provinces and petrol wellhead, only exploit by the central government for their greed and avarice to dominant the region power. Iran is busy in corrupt the neighbor countries, their logic are not Islam, they lied, and they corrupted Islam, and committed the worst criminal in the name of Islam by the name of Islam and by the bad use of Islam. Their main logic is evil and corruption; they even raped and tortured their own nation in Tehran.
This evil regime committed crime against the humanity and ought to bring them to justice, otherwise their dirty nuke or other dark side of their power will make many troubles and problems not only for own nation but also for all the world by their evil networks spread in the world. So don’t give chance to this venom snake, crush it’s head by military heavy strike.
As the top intelligence analyst alive today, I am happy to give you my analysis.
First, by June 1986 I delivered to congress the report that said the regime in Moscow was through: “downfall by popular uprising of the government operating out of Moscow”.
Second: The USA will continue to be supporting with everything we have the “dictators in Iran that parade as religious” until or unless a substitute war: (weapons sales producer) mongering adversary can be created; that is of course why the US is determined to bring Egypt, Libya et al on board as terror states…
…real easy once you get the game you are in…also real easy to stop, but not until Americans get their proverbial heads out of the…
megalomania alert1
The Iran’s Industrial community and fundamental and mother industries in all factories and all military bases and all manufacturing, all engineering all the vehicle manufacturing the trucks and cars, all the hospitals and their systems, all the airports and their airplanes and navigation systems and all kind of radars, all the refineries and process produce plants all the gas stations for cars and trucks, all the power electrical plants ,all the refinery of water drinking network pipelines, and in one simple sentence the entire network of the blood vessels and heart and brain of Iran is 100% belong to European Union specially Germany , Japan, South Korea, France, and absolutely the Big Giant U.S.A. All East Asian companies are the agents of U.S or Germany that have come to Iran and established and runs the infrastructure with the help of petroleum dollars.
Iran and all its networks for its life and breathing are on the hands of the Industrial countries like U.S and Germany. If they or their agents or deputies do not send the support spare parts, schematic diagrams, highly skilled engineers and technicians, and other consultants and helps and supports , Iran country will fall and will die and even can’t spend three months independently. Just it is enough their electric power plant networks and all high voltage of power cables destroy, all the Iran will go on the tomb and grave! Iran will die. All the Iran’s Industrial Infrastructure is imported of Industrial E.U and United States. All the electric Generators are belongs to Siemens Company, ABB Company, Endress and Hauser and many other Germans company, Rosemount &Fisher Company and many others of U.S and U.K companies.
The evil Iran captured power by the help of petrodollars and west industry support!
And now the dragon of Iran wants to rebel and mutiny against the west with the west industries that dedicated to Iran!
This devilry never stops. Iranians think and believe in, and honor to Achaemenian theocratic pyramid Zoroastrian tyrannical Imperialism (monarchists group who runaway to U.S and Europe and refuge to Los Angeles an London) or the Islamic version of it (Islamists fascists who governed now in Tehran!), Unity of Muslim countries with the leadership of Iranian Shiite, so to destroy and burn the Israel with cooperate each other! And role the Middle East! And spread the terrorism to Europe and U.S.
The Infrastructure of Iran has to destroy completely by the highest power military airborne carpet systematic bombardment with the thousands flying fortresses, B1-b and B-52 and B-2 spirits, with the most shocking mother bombs and strategic nuclear bombs.
Iranians claim that they are the HERO of WAR (Marde Janaggim, as the same their supreme leader always declare) so the United States army and Israel Army and NATO show them war what really means. Everything west dedicated to Iran withdraw by bombardment. All the military forces in Arabian Gulf navy and all the military forces in every corner of Iran ought to destroy and erase and flatten by bombardment not only tactical but also strategic nuclear hell. Do not hesitate to destroy the enemy because the enemy never hesitates to put a dirty nuke to Israel or western cities.
Faster, please