As I’ve remarked in the past–but you can’t say the truth too often, right? — nobody knows what a revolution looks like. And in fact that last clause may be very misleading, because there is no one thing that a revolution looks like. Some revolutions happen very quietly, like the Information Revolution. On the other hand, some very revolutionary-looking events, like lots of people in the streets calling for the downfall of a government or a regime, are just street theater. Ask the “revolutionaries” who filled the streets of Paris calling for the end of de Gaulle. Or the crowd that levitated the Pentagon.
You can’t judge a revolution by its theatrics. Something real has to happen, something beyond marching, chanting slogans, and making demands. Revolutions end systems of rule and replace them with new ones. Is that happening now in the Middle East? I think that the Green Movement in Iran is revolutionary, and that, if successful, it would end the Islamic Republic and replace it with a secular political system that separates mosque and state. I think that the efforts by Hezbollah to take over Lebanon also constitute an attempt at revolutionary change, because it would turn the secular Lebanese system into an Islamic Republic. It can go both ways.
All of which is a long way of saying that there’s a lot of tumult in the Middle East (and not only the Middle East; there were big demonstrations a few hours ago in Albania), a great perturbation in the Force, as Obiwan would say. Lots of fighting. Lots of factions. In Egypt, which is by far the most important of the Arab countries affected by the tumult, there are genuine democrats and also members of organizations (from the Muslim Brotherhood to Islamic Jihad, Hamas, et al.) who would transform Egypt from an authoritarian to a totalitarian regime.
Remember my Grandma Mashe: “Things are never so bad they can’t get worse.”
So how are we to look at it all?
The basic point is that most everything and everywhere is up for grabs. From Yemen to Iran to Lebanon and Somalia, from Egypt and Jordan to Syria and Tunisia, we’ve got tumult. There are lots of different forces in play, and in many cases there is no way to know who will make what decisions, let alone what decisions they will make. Orders will be given, some of them will be obeyed while others will be ignored.
Welcome to the real world.
Let’s take the most important Arab country, Egypt. The key institution is the army, which does not want an Islamic regime, but also does not want Mubarak fils. I suspect that if they agree to save the current regime (likely), they will want to inherit it. They remember that the shah’s generals made a deal with the forces of Khomeini’s revolution in 1979, and were decimated. But even if they prevail and put an end to the tumult, how long would that “order” last? That may depend on other things in other lands.
The key to many of these tumults — certainly not all, for example, Tunisia — is Iran. The mullahs have been pounding their chests and claiming to have inspired the insurrections. Everywhere. This is nonsense and they know it. Few Jordanians or Egyptians want to live in the Arab version of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Indeed, you can be sure that the mullahs are frightened by a lot of this. They know that the Iranian insurrection of 2009-2010 was the real inspiration for many of the demonstrators, and they know that the Iranian people know that, as they also know that Iranians are saying to themselves that “if the Arabs can overthrow their regimes, surely we (superior Persians) can do the same.” That is why the thugs were out in force in Iran’s big cities the last couple of days.
Dawdle we shall. The writing is on the wall. Looks like another Iran from here but as you say best, Who knows.
Good article. I totally agree with your sentiments about the good President. When the Iranian populace had a mini-uprising, it would have been good for the President of the US to support the Iranian students. Instead he did nothing.
Obama’s interest is clearly in not rocking anyone’s boat. Unfortunately this is the time to rock the boat very very hard and provide some direction. This is the time to really hammer the Muslim countries as hard as possible. Yet he and Hilary make sure they say nothing too controversial. This is a golden opportunity that will be abandoned yet again. But you may rest assured that he will claim credit for this event in some convoluted way.
our own prsident is a fuckin muslim imma say not all muslims r bad i think but i never met one and all i hear is bad things bout them screw the brotherhood we will stand together united as americans and they will not make us fall
‘free’ the Egyptian people to the claws of the Brotherhood of Islam.
Hopefully those who support Regimes such as current one in power in Egypt, Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iraq. Pakistan, China INC, US etc finally realise if the morality does not match the rhetoric eventually the hypocrisy will become too much to bare and an even worse outcome can appear acceptable.
One has to realise there is no such thing as freedom only the relative independence nature and fellow humans allow.
Anyone claiming to ‘free’ anyone is only intending to change the chains.
So one has to examine very carefully what is this ‘free’ which seeks to smother a reasoned reflection of what a ‘free’ state is.
For who would question the right of people to be ‘free’ even given it is an illusion? Surely a fascist.
It is a real worry given ElBaradei would not tell the truth regards Iran’s nuclear program.
Also demanding Mubarak as well as his son be excluded from presidential elections given it is a relatively fair contest does not sound like a Democrat to me.
Also major support in this uprising and I would imagine the violence and the police reaction to it is coming as a result of Islamic Brotherhood action on the ground.
So before yelling for regime change, Egyptians and the rest of us should take a breath and see what this actually means in reality.
Clearly the current Egyptian regime needs to be made accountable but if the West and the Egyptian citizens push to hard without knowing the outcome things may will be much worse for the Egyptian people in the long run as well as for the rest of us.
Surely the odious strongmen of the region leave a lot to be desired.Nevertheless, the Arab/Persian/Turkish Middle East is not Disneyland, and herein lies the difference.
Surely there are many thousands of protesters who are seeking economic stability and a regime they can count on,however, extrapolating from the above that they desire a western liberal society is a quantum leap-delusional too.
Simply put, most of the Arab/Persian/Turkish street do NOT want western democracy, rather freedom to worship Allah, to one extreme or another.(secularists are the exception, but have NO chance of influencing the entire region,THAT ship has sailed with Turkey)
To wit, our best chance is to support the lesser of evils-a STRONG leader who will open up economic opportunities, at the same time strong enough to keep the LETHAL forces of Islamism at bay.
The worst case scenario would be for the Muslim Brotherhood to install one of their puppets in Mubarak’s place.
The question becomes-does ANYONE of authority in the US administration understand the above, and if so, how far are they willing to go to make sure that the restoration of the Caliphate is stopped in its tracks?Make NO mistake.IF Egypt falls, the results will be catastrophic,not only for Israel-the only western outpost in the Middle East-but from one end of the world to another.
I think Obama understands it better than anyone. He’s supported by the Muslim Brotherhood and is probably a member.
I actually think you will be better off now with no false assumptions that your neighbor has decent intentions.
I think the muslim brotherhood is the only winner in this.
obama has done nothing but help this come about so I would be looking inward for protection, not for some kind of appeasement. Where has that gotten Israel so far ?
Adina Kutnicki, I agree with you.
Unfortunately I think we are seeing the last days of Israel. Muslims know they cannot launch a final solution war against Israel without the massive Egyptian Army. If they now succeed in gaining control of the Egyptian government, they will have control of this army, and they will use it to launch a massive assault upon Israel. All the smaller Arab states will then join in with their armies, including Iraq – since Saddam is no longer there to stop them, and the US is no longer a controlling influence in Iraq.
I bet this entire so-called “democratic” revolution in Egypt is just a smoke-screen which the Fundamentalists have instigated to gain control of the Egyptian Army. They have already placed their men in the lower officer ranks (company grade and some field grade), and from what I have read, many of the Egyptian general-grade officers (who do not support the Fundamentalists – nor another war against Israel) have already fled the country.
Now Israel will be faced with the choice of nuking the hell out of the entire Middle East, or meekly boarding the cattle cars once again, since an Israeli Army using only conventional weapons can no longer stop the Arab hordes. What do you think the Israeli Government will do?
I will not take you to task on the subject of the Arab Streets as I am not an Arab. But I will strongly disagree with you on the concept of the Persian Streets as I am an Iranian. The majority of the pedestrians on the Persian Streets harbor as much, if not more, hatred for the Islamic government and its ugly totlitarianism as you do. I dare say that shoud this hollow and bloodthirsty regime fall, Erez Israel will have no closer friend in the region than the Persian Street as was the case pre 1979 when we enjoyed a truly fraternal relationship. As an Israeli, please do not allow yourself to be confused by the ugly antisemitic government of Iran and the people of Iran.
Very well said…
Just a word on Turkey, since you mentioned the “secularists” there, as if they were anything different than the islamists. The Army (supposedly the institution which backs the “secularist” Turks) is nothing but a brutal expansionist instrument of Turkish ambitions, seeking to re-create the old Ottoman Empire, but call it instead the “Turkish Empire.”
For all practical purposes, they’re the same cancer for the West, as the islamists.
Mullahs everywhere want to be in charge. They believe that Allah has appointed them to be his agents on Earth. That’s what they believe and that’s what they will fight for. [They also aspire to be pigs feeding at the trough of the public's treasure, but that is for another time.] The Muslim Brotherhood is part and parcel of this ideal. So, the question then becomes, “Just how deeply has the Brotherhood infiltrated the army, particularly the colonels and above ranks?” The army has been the final political arbiter of Egyptian politics since the fall of the monarch in 1952. Gamal Mubarak was not one of them [Hosni's son]so they don’t trust him. Thus, it seems likely that when General Annan returns to Cairo today we will get some clarity in the situation.
You’d think Obama the Community Organizer would recognize what’s going on and what to do about it, but he’s always been on the side of the rioters before, demanding more from the system. Now he’s on the other side and all he can do is offer platitudes and threats. If he’d done what he instructed Mubarak to do and listened to the people, he wouldn’t be presiding over a double-dip recession. He’s increased government power and spending in the teeth of a financial crisis and aroused a movement named after the galvanizing event of the American Revolution and he lectures Mubarak with a straight face?
But you’re right. He’s bamboozled. We’re seeing these scenes from Greece, Spain, Britain, Tunisia and now Egypt. The weaker the economy the worse the riots. The tea parties have been going for 18 months and he still doesn’t recognize them as a revolution that’s coming for him.
What you say is insightful. Why do I suspect that inside the White House Obama is wailing ‘Michelle, please make it go away.’ If she were able to remove this Egyptian distraction Obama could focus laser like, on predicting the winner of the Superbowl.
*Corrected (spellings) of my previous comment:)
Another propaganda-based tale inspired by Fox news education. Do you want to know why the west have it complicated to contain the middle east? Simple. They have absolutely no clue about the situation there, which is strange after being the dominant embedded dictatorship there, presented by puppies ruling the countries.
I cant decide where to start. From the bias unrealistic assumption that Iranian oppositions have clear view about whats next while Egyptians protesting in the streets are just bunch of barbaric chaos makers. Just because you hate current Iran and bossing current Egyptian regime (And I oppose them both BTW). What a myopic approach.
Then saying that Hezbollah will make an Islamic republic in Lebanon…I laughed out loudly on that! Have you ever been in Lebanon? Not even a half minded child will ever take this assumption seriously, simply because Hezbollah cant. And they won’t, at least because they are smart enough to know that they cant. The Majority of Muslims from all sectarians will oppose it before Christians. The massive support Hezbollah has in Lebanon is based on two things:
1) The resistance against Israel that invaded Lebanon again and again and committed war crimes even before Hezbollah’s existence (UN and the west didnt even dare to feel sorry about it, or were interested to take any actions to prevent it). People are aware that if Hezbollah get weaker, Israel will ride the country back once again. So its a need more than a want to support Hezbollah.
2) The corrupted politicians the west (in coordination with syria by the way) support who robbed the country till the bones (Hezbollah was not in the government back then). Hezbollah political weigh with his allies from all sectarians (including -by far-the biggest Christian party in the parliament btw) are the only possible replacement for that group of scums. Especially after the International court joke that ended up being a political bug for international interest.
Then the brotherhood of Egypt. First, if you support democracy, then you should support people’s choice without being hypocrite and picky. it’s not your role to preach and get worried about Egyptians destiny if they had free will to choose who represent them. They know what suits him most much more than you will ever do. Will they do mistakes? Same as Americans. But nations learn through the process, and they have the right to.
Mind you, Islamic parties have a strong presence in Egypt, but they are NOT the only choice for Egyptians. Political diversity is deep rooted in the Egyptian society regardless of all the attempts of the USA regime in Egypt to smash it all and monopolize the power. The reason why only Muslims brotherhood raise on the surface is simply because Mubarak forbids any other party to operate while giving the Islamic Parties the freedom to show up just to threaten the west that “See? ts either me or those”.
Will a new government limit Egypt’s relation with Israel or change it? They should. At least they should start earning the market price for the gas they export to Israel (Now its barely 1/6 of the price based on an agreement USA dictated on Puppy-Mubarak). And BTW there is absolutely no presence for Hamas in Egypt. Nice try dude.
I will not keep on going…the readers know the point by now…
what is the point?
btw— democracy is essentially mob rule and no law abiding individual truly craves this and is skeptical of anything populist
i believe in our constitutional republic where the limits on government authority are spelled out and the individual is free to live his life in accord with the civil society
there difference is significant
…for some one who should know better I am surprised by the lack of depth of your arguments.
I do not plan to critique your individual points but suggest you try to prove them to yourself as an exercise in critical thinking.
I will touch on your concept of democracy. It fails when one thinks that the majority can force the minority to do what ever it wants. That is not a democracy but a dictatorship.
In France -for example- the Majority force the minority not to wear hijab in schools. one of many examples where Hypocrites call it “Belong to our culture or go, Europe for Europeans”. While you are PREDICTING that it will happen in Egypt, and the doubt is enough for you to make judgement. Sound Reasonable.
But most importantly, are you aware that a minority is forcing its dominance on Majority in Egypt? Thats worse than the doubt claiming a Majority will cancel a minority if revolution works. So your logic is paper thin.
I would debate the finer points with you if it wouldn’t be a waste of my time. I have met many like you in muslim countries.
good day
The only difference is that, I am not a Muslim
))
Go get a life LOL!
never thought that you were a muslim. but you share the lack of critical thinking with them.
You make the mistake of thinking that a democracy is necessarily separate from a dictatorship. A pure democracy IS a dictatorship, even though the ruling majority may fail to realize it as such. A constitutional republic with democratic rule has the ability to protect certain rights of the minorities, but such is not a pure democracy. A dictatorship, for the intents and purposes of any worthwhile political discussion (meaning all involved in the discussion need to throw bullshit arguments over semantics aside), does not simply require one or a few men making the decisions; it simply requires some members of the governed party to be legally incapable of determining the laws that rule their lives. A minority in a democracy will always be definitive of such helplessness.
Sounds like you are Arab or Persian. So,which is it? Does Hezbollah have massive support in Lebanon – and if they do why should we believe they cannot get away with forming a government and runninng the country – or do they not? First you say it cannot be done and then you say they have massive support. Explain.
Also, what’s with the old story and lie and excuse about “corrupt western or westernized
leaders”? It seems to me that neither the Persians nor the Arabs nor any other group of people
USA included has a monoploy on nor needs any help with producing corrup leaders. Its a human
problem but some cultures have less market share in corruption than others.
If you care about these issues and want to have a clearer view of things and deal with the truth
that might bring – I am not betting on it – real change THEN LOOK AT THE REAL PROBLEM WHICH
IS ARAB CULTURE.
“Sounds like you are Arab or Persian. So,which is it?” Not your business.
“First you say it cannot be done and then you say they have massive support. Explain.”
Simple. First, they dont have massive majority themselves. But with their Allies (Their biggest Allie is a Christian party that have more members in the Parliament). Secondly, those who support Hezbolla support it more as a resistance to Israel than a political party. The moment they make a serious attempt to create Islamic Republic they will loose most of the support they have. 3) Based on Lebanese regimes President has to be Christian, Prime Minister is Sunni and parlemant member is Shiaa (Thats Hezbollah section of muslims). This system insure diversity. So neither legally nor realistically an Islamic republic in Lebanon is a concern.
“some cultures have less market share in corruption than others.” Regardless how racist, chauvinist, and arrogant this statement is, I will still treat it shortly:
Corruption exists every where. When it happens in a western country, people revolt on it and clear it without the interfere of any outsiders. When it happen in Egypt (where the regime is financed by USA -an admitted FACT by all parties), people revolt against corruption the whole world come to support…the regime. Which make it harder to fight corruption in third and developed countries in general because people do not have the free will to change. Its not people against officials as in the west, but people against Dictatorships+USA and co. BTW, google “School of the Americas” for some insight.
The rest was rambling…
Liberal…You make some interesting observations….but with some flaws when you stated:
["Corruption exists every where. When it happens in a western country, people revolt on it and clear it without the interfere of any outsiders. When it happen in Egypt (where the regime is financed by USA -an admitted FACT by all parties), people revolt against corruption the whole world come to support…the regime. Which make it harder to fight corruption in third and developed countries in general because people do not have the free will to change. Its not people against officials as in the west, but people against Dictatorships+USA and co."]
America’s greatest corruption was born when the government and Supreme Court discarded the Constitution, ruling systemically to reverse majority rule…replaced by minority rule through all the legislation of the Great New Society era of Kennedy/Johnson. Not that some of it was not sorely justified but, the evolution of that legislation has born not only a minority rule but, special interest minorities rule. The tremendous corruption brought on by minority and minority special interest corruption continues to destroy Traditional America and its Constitution.
Post WWII, I can agree that the UN and America have been far to intrusive politically and economically around the worlds developed and undeveloped nations. Unfortunate I suppose, that our tremendous charity seemingly cannot come without political and economic strings. We seem to confuse what defines the dire need for our charity.
As a matter of fact you are wrong. If the country is secular everybody have to follow the same law. Therefore it is not only Muslim who can not wear hijab (which anyway is not a requirement – show me the sura which says so), but Christians can not wear crucifix or sikhs their ceremonial knife. So, it is not, as you say, a tyranny of majority over minority, but a “tyranny” of law over everybody.
Now you points about Hizbullah and Lebanon.
I think majority of Iranians also laughed if someone would say that their revolution will introduce Islamic Republic. Iranians even had Tudeh, a communist party. However, although the revolution against the shah was secular and democratic it ended with introduction of Islamic government and mass killing of Tudeh members.
The resistance – and I think that you wanted to say “hizbullah” – was real, but it was not a Hizbullah. Hizbullah piggybacked on a real resistance, piggybacked with money and weapons from “revolutionary” Iran. As for the Nasrallah, he said, in his last speech what is most important for him – Iran, Palestinians, Hizbullah’s own survival and at the end the Lebaneese. Lebaneese were at the end, not important at all.
Corruption is everywhere, but the most corrupted people are these who under the guise of religion take the lives and money of their own people – like Sepah, the mullahs and Hizbullah do.
Instead of talking about corrupted western governments – which are not, at least not in a way Antarinejad and the mullahs are – you better look to your “party of god” which under the guise of “resistance” is selling Lebanese people, – suni, maronites and shia, – to Iran and Syria.
But hey, do you in you post about corruption and resistance got some thoughts on Egyptians?
You are saying that West should “support people’s choice without being hypocrite and picky”.
But that is not true.
Democracy is not about elections and it is not about supporting the parties who are themselves against democracy – Muslim Brotherhood never said that after coming to power they would allow more elections, did they?
Democracy is also not about supporting tyranny, and the Muslim Brotherhood is supporting religious tyranny, don’t they? After all their program says that sharia is the law they follow, which in fact support inequality of law – different law for muslims, different law for others.
So why should democratic countries support undemocratic movement?
You are saying that Egypt has tradition of political diversity. It may have a tradition of political diversity but that does not mean that it has a tradition of democratic institutions and democratic parties. In fact Egypt was ruled for its whole time (from Pharaohs to Mubarak) by undemocratic governments.
Finally you are claiming that “its not people against officials as in the west, but people against Dictatorships+USA and co.” if so why should Americans support you and “people” if they are against Americans, against US? You think majority of Westerners are masochists who would support people who are against them?
- As a respond for your first paragraph, First of all we know why that law was structured in France. Secondly, you say if the law is applied on everyone then its fair enough and everyone should follow. So you suggest that there is nothing wrong in Iranian regime where there is a system applied on everyone. I dont agree with you, but if thats your logic, good for you.
- Yes, Iranian revolution was not Islamic. First of all, lets not forget why the revolution happened in the first place, and why the revolutionists had all this hatred to USA (the ones who invaded USA embassy where not even the radical Muslims). Learn a bit more about Shah regime and its role and connections. Beside, did USA have concerns that if communists reach power in Iran the country will become an advanced station for USSR? Good question. If you pick the hidden stitches, you will be surprised. As usual, bad strategic planing leading to catastrophic outcome.
“As for the Nasrallah, he said, in his last speech what is most important for him – Iran, Palestinians, Hizbullah’s own survival and at the end the Lebaneese. Lebaneese were at the end, not important at all.”
He didn’t say that.
“Instead of talking about corrupted western governments” see? Thats your problem. you dont read accurately. I didn’t talk about Corrupted western government, but about western politics that defend corrupted systems in third world. Thats different.
“you better look to your party of god” My party of god? LOL! Shouldn’t I find my god first?
“In fact Egypt was ruled for its whole time (from Pharaohs to Mubarak) by undemocratic governments.” Simply put: Thats wrong. read history, not newspapers.
“Democracy is also not about supporting tyranny, and the Muslim Brotherhood is supporting religious tyranny, don’t they? After all their program says that sharia is the law they follow, which in fact support inequality of law – different law for muslims, different law for others.
So why should democratic countries support undemocratic movement?”
Well, anyone who tells you that what is happening in Egypt has anything to do with Muslims brotherhood doesnt know a shit about the reality there. Now its for you to believe me, or him/her. Won’t argue. I guess Copts, the Christians of Egypt know more than you ever will what is this all about. They are all in the streets protesting. Are they supporting Muslims brotherhood?
Now regarding Islam Vs Democracy: The first Khalifa after Muslims profit, Mohammed, was ELECTED by people and there were two other candidates. The second Khalifa created a parliament-like council. That was in a period where people in Europe were still considering the kings as gods, where some other countries were inexistent. Every society pass through dark ages, you cant judge it in such periods and generalize. For the record-and to your surprise- I am not a Muslim. But I read history, rather than getting carried away by propaganda.
As for the rest and who should the west support, my message is clear: Dont support anyone because it is not your business. Let the people of that country decides. Period. It is funny that those who preach about what democracy is or is not, find no shame that USA supports Mubarak.
Stop this holier than though nonsense. Let people decide their own country.
Thanks for the different perspective. Since you’re an expert, presumably a local one, tell us exactly what the Egyptians want. Democracy? Socialism? Communism? An Islamic theocracy? Or does it matter what they want?
Egyptians want democracy after 60 years of dictatorships. And for those who say “They cant live up to democracy” they simply know nothing about Egypt’s history which is not only about building Pyramids.
They want to be able to speak up without getting tortured. They want to get ride of a handful number of regime parasites owning all the wealth in a country living in poverty. They want free elections and a government that represent them. They want to get ride of Presidents for life. Anyone under 30 years old has never knew any president beside Mubarak.
There is a huge diversity in the Egyptian society. Definitely, the Islamic brotherhood is the most organized (Because the regime fought all the rest and kept those to threaten USA: Either me or them). But the massive majority of Egyptians are liberal (spread between national parties, Communists, socialists, even capitalists, etc…). Muslim brotherhood may even get a majority in a free elected parliament (Especially first election-because they are organized), but they dont have enough presence to change the constitution and create radical Islamic country. They will still work within the constitution that recognize diversity. Especially now that 1) Egyptians are gaining the confidence to protest. 2) Muslims brotherhood have a point to prove countering the accusation that they want to swallow the country.
In fact, the worst mistake West did was fighting to keep Islamic parties outside the system and the power in Middle east, then creating or supporting corrupted alternatives. That was a favor for Islamic movements who were forced to play the opposition role (which is always more capable of earning public support and sympathy than governments), especially when the government is as bad as the Middle Eastern standard. All what they had to do is to chant against the government to grow. If they were allowed to get into the power, I bet they would have had more questions to answer.
Thank you for the informative reply. If democracy (with an Egyptian character) is the protesters’ goal, then I wish them luck. I also hope that any government that replaces Mubarak’s is one that doesn’t have to be “propped up” by American support.
Liberal middle eastern,
I cannot get your point. I don’t even understand how it is you’re “liberal”.
You object to Ledeen’s column. Can you say why in five sentences, or less?
Thanks.
Unlike you, I can think outside the box. Whether you can see it or not. And thats less than 5 sentences.
LME
1) Law is applied to everyone and is equal for everyone. In France.
Law is applied to everyone and is unequal for everyone. That is Iran
2) The ones who invaded American embassy were radical Muslims. If they were not, how come that they got feted by Khomeini & Co.,?
USA and Iranian Revolution – USA was one of the first countries who accepted new, revolutionary, government. Accepted, until the terrorist started action aimed at American embassy.
I bet you did not know it, did you?
3) Nasrallah – Yes he did said it. Read his recent speech.
4) The corrupted politicians the west (in coordination with syria by the way) Excuse me? Syria co-ordinate with the WEST?
5) You are right, of course, about protest in Egypt. Protests are spontaneous. As they were, long time ago, in Iran. But as in Iran there there is a possibility that Muslim Brotherhood will hijack the protests. As Khomeini hijacked protests in Iran.
6) I don’t care who you are or what is your religion., what I care about is that the Qu’ran is treated literally by majority of Muslims. Islam did not changed. Chinese and the West changed.
As for your advice to me regarding learning of history, yes. One need to learn it. I advise you to read “Sirah Rasul Allah ” and then we can talk.
7) West will support whomever West want, as would Russians, as would Chinese. Because you tell us to mind our own business but you do not do it yourself. Otherwise why post on the American blog?
For #1) You didnt get my point, and I won’t repeat myself.
For #2) Your statement shows your lack of knowledge. If you are too lazy to read about a subject before arguing, at least see the pictures. Something like young women wearing bodies during the set-in in the USA Embassy.
For #3) No he didnt. All his speeches are on youtube. Get your evidence.
For #4)Again you mix up things. Syria dominated Lebanon in coordination with USA and in return supported USA in its first war against Iraq. Never mind me, read the Pentagon published files about it. When you are not too lazy to read. (picking political knowledge Via TV is not the way to go).
For #5) the possibilities that Muslims brotherhood dominate egypt increase the more Egyptians get upset of USA which increase the more USA oppose the need of the majority for a change. You bring it to yourself. Beside, you cant support a Jewish state in Israel that transfer minorities then preach about the threat of creating an Islamic Regime in Egypt (That will not transfer anyone out of their country). Still, I am coming from the view that Egypt will not be an Iran. So. worry not.
For #6) Hm…Islam is a religion, it didnt change, more or less like any other religion (and specifically for being one of the latest). China and west are societies and nations. They changed. So as everywhere else, including Middle East. Not a valid comparison.
For #7) I post on an “American blog” as a respond to what is published. So you started interfering with whats not your business, not me. I am not complaining, I am just putting things in the right context so later you dont claim “you haven’t been told”. Yes, west can support whoever they want, but they need to learn to take responsibility for it. Every action will bring back a reaction. Don’t play the “Victims” role wondering “Who do they hate us”. Now you know.
Algeria in Turmoil. The secular regime in Tunisia overthrown. Egypt is wobbling. Yet all is quiet in Libya, which has the dictator who most deserves his overthrow. What is going on?
History has shown that revolutions do not occur at the times of worst poverty, oppression, or hunger, but when things are showing some signs of improvement (raising expectations) and weakness in the ruler (possibilty of victory). The British Empire and the Warsaw Pact disintegrated because England and Russia lacked the will to maintain control. All the great conflicts of history have been resolved by violence or the credible threat of violence.
Period.
The American Revolution occurred when England decided it wanted more of the American pie, which had been growing since the 17th century, to pay for the ever-present war (and rumors of war) against France. The English king hadn’t expected such a backlash from “commoners” who were expected to behave like good and obedient colonials.
Mubarak can’t have been completely oblivious to the fact of civil unrest (he’s been in the job for 30 years). George III was insane; what’s Mubarak’s excuse?
One feels strongly that the United States government of 2011 would not be able to support any democratic revolution, much less the American revolution of 1776, and further, would think it illegal to do so.
We have 18 or so intelligence agencies that appear to be deaf and blind. A foreign service and state department that are mute, and a White House staff that can’t read music.
All I am hoping for here is that the Egyptian army realizes that the IDF can and will break all their toys unless they put a lid on things and grant some reforms.
Ah Michael Ledeen. Good old, one note, Michael Ledeen. So there’s a revolution in Egypt? Why, that’s in the middle east. Iran is in the middle east. Iranian revolution! Brilliant!
Seared by his sudden insight, Michael Ledeen springs into action. First, make the required mention of the actual events in That Country Near Iran. Next, sprinkle in nebulous criticism of Obama (doesn’t have the “culture” to deal with this situation?? Saying “everyone wants to be free” is dangerous!?). Then, introduce unsubstantiated theories blaming ubiquitous Iranian influence for all current problems. Finally, finish the only way a Michael Ledeen essay can, with a call to support revolution in Iran as the answer to the problem at hand (and all other problems in the Middle East as a special bonus).
It’s a great job if you can get it.
Lyddea,
You’re quite a critic. But I ask you, who is a better essayist when it comes to current events in the Middle East… Iran in particular? I didn’t see anything in what you wrote that comes anywhere near his level.
No matter who began this “revolution”, for what high-minded cause, the track record in the Arab world is that it will most likely end in an Islamic dictatorship run by “religious leaders”.
Islam has a long history of not much caring what the “man in the street” thinks, if it is different from the grand theories of those charged with “interpreting” the Qu’ran. Most of their interpretations seeming to consist of deciding who gets murdered next. If those who want democracy balk at this, they immediately go to the head of the “to do” list.
People often forget that the Iranian Revolution began with a coalition of students, pro-democracy activists, and even out-and-out Communists (the latter were the ones who initially seized the American Embassy). Then Khomeini and his Tammany Hall of mullahs took over “in the name of Allah”- and anybody who disagreed learned the definition of that old Southwestern phrase, “getting ‘dobe-walled”- the hard way.
As for the Egyptian Army, it must be remembered that whatever its senior officer corps thinks, the rank and file are more likely to follow whoever claims to speak for Allah. Which is how Sadat ended up dead. In any revolutionary movement, the philosophy that matters is the one followed by the men with the guns. In Egypt, as with Iran, this is unlikely to be Western-style democracy, because according to the mullahs, Allah Does Not Like It.
There may be a fundamental contradiction between Islam, in its purest, post-Sayyid Qutb form, and democracy. Certainly, the historical record strongly indicates this.
I don’t know if Mubarak’s regime’ will still be in power a year from now, or not. And it might even be replaced by an actual pluralistic, democratic government.
But the odds are against it.
clear ether
eon
I don’t know, I hate being a wet blanket but I’m not to optimistic about much democracy sprouting up in the Middle East. If Mubarak falls in Egypt, some strong man approved by the army will take over. The army will say that it is only an “interim” government, but once the guy is in power he will keep it. For how long he keeps this power will depend on how much the army “likes” him. And so it goes.
Democracy, or even a parliamentary form of government, is really a foreign concept in the Middle East. In fact, I can’t think of one country where they have a parliament and it’s actually being used properly. And the only reason why it’s working in Iraq is because the US Army is there to stop somebody from taking over. But once we leave, how much do you want to bet that Iraq will either descend into a civil war, or some tyrant (probably a Muslim cleric), will take over? Even poor little Lebanon seems to have lost its struggle for democracy, with Hezbollah and the Syrians taking over there and rendering its Parliament useless.
Nope, I don’t see it happening. Democracy has never really been successful in the Middle East (except for Israel, and they obviously are not arabs or Muslims). You are talking about lands and peoples who have been ruled by either kings, Sultans, dictators, or strong men for centuries and they’re not about to change overnight. I think the only thing we can hope for is an “enlightened” ruler who is friendly to the West, as is the king of Jordan.
What’s worse, you could have “fair” democratic elections taking place after the strong man falls and then a radical Islamic organization will take over the country. After all, they had the election and this is what the public wanted, right? Always, always, remember that the Palestinians had a free election. And what did they end up with? Hamas.
Nope, I don’t see democracy spreading in the Middle East. Ever.
*** change “centuries” to millennia
Libertyship46, spot-on. The number of Arab democracies, with the temporary exception of Iraq, can be counted the fingers of no hands.
It’s a bit hard, this singling out of Arabs and Persians and Turks and Kurds as being unsuitable for democracy. Look at the Russians, the Poles, the Czechs, and the Albanians. Look at sub-Saharan Africans. Look at the Chinese and half the Koreans. Heck, the Japanese and the other half of the Koreans haven’t had democracy for a large fraction of their existence. Look at the Spanish, the Italians, the French.
It’s nurture, not nature. DNA means nothing; education means everything.
Americans are losing our freedoms, too, and it’s nothing to do with our changing racial makeup. It’s the values of the Founding that we’ve almost ceased to inculcate.
The whole problem stems from the fact that they walk sideways and have both eyes on the same side of their faces!
“Ask the “revolutionaries” who filled the streets of Paris calling for the end of de Gaulle.”
Summertime arrived, pfff, no more revolutionaries, they all went to the beach !
while de Gaulle’s crowds were filling Paris streets !
so, it was more or less 50/50 as it’s still is today.
Though I can’t see that the Tunisian and Egyptian mobs have the same wealthiness as our lefties !
We are living in the Carter Era Part Deux.
Nobody’s home in DC; or maybe sitting on the sidelines for a few days, or week may we can get a statement or response from the clan in DC.
The phone rang at 03:00 hrs. and no one picked it up. The flanking maneuvers on Israel continue. Jordan is in the crosshairs. Riyadh is paralyzed. We step on our you know what and the ayatollahs are laughing. Meanwhile back at the Kibbutz…what chess piece will the Iranians move on the board next?
Exactly. Thanks for saying it: –
“the Arab street,” according to which the Arab masses are motivated above all by an unrelenting rage at Israel for its oppression of the beloved Palestinians.”…and..
“The tumult has nothing to do with Palestine/Israel and even a blind bat can see hundreds of thousands of Arabs fighting for democracy, as have their fellow Muslims”.
The man on the street doesn’t care about Israel-Palestine; that meme has been used by the Rulers of these dictatorships to divert the unrest and anger within their own populations. And what’s the basic reason for the unrest? Those dictatorships.
The ME operates within an ancient political mode: tribalism – which is, like socialism, fascism, communism, a two-class structure. The Rulers..and the Ruled. The Rulers function, as an elite set, kept in place by power (theocratic, military, control of oil)…and the great mass of the population has no economic, political, legislative power or well-being. They are just ‘cared for’ at a minimal level by The State.
There is no middle class – the class of private enterprise, developers of industry, innovation, achievements of wealth. Problem?
In a modern industrial society with populations in the multimillions, there MUST be a democratic political structure. That is, the middle class – that class of private enterprise -must have political and economic power..to ‘make things happen’. The tribal dictatorships in the ME have deprived the people of this power – and it’s reached a tipping, boiling point. You can only keep the lid on the people, via your oil revenues, for so long…
What will happen? I suspect two roads, possibly one after the other. The Islamists, who see a way out of the corrupt tribal dictatorships – by a reversion to rigid Islamism..might first gain power. Their view of the world is utopian and fictional. They consider that IF you adhere, strictly, to a set of Rules of belief and behaviour – THEN, this pure life will bring stability and prosperity. Key problem – it doesn’t happen; utopia doesn’t exist. And, trying to keep ALL the population within these strictures leads to repression…and..you can’t keep such a large population that passive.
The next step – will be the rebellion against this phase and the emergence of democracy.
I think the West’s role is to urge democracy – something that Obama failed to do during the Iranian uprisings..remember, he supported the dictators..and so, Iran laughed at him, and has surged upward in their imperial ambitions over the whole area. Iran wants to run the whole ME – and the Arab nations are very worried about its agenda.
The other role of the West is to reject multiculturalism within its own borders, reject the Islamism moving into the West. That is, Islamism will be kicked out of the ME by the ME, for it is a useless ideology in an industrial economy…and the West has to ensure that it doesn’t move, like a parasite, into the industrial economies of the West and live off the West..
there is only one outcome to this …it is the muslim brotherhood.
and the USA has a big hand in it. they created the atmosphere for it to happen.
no strong horse.
obama is the ugliest person on the face of the earth. he is like the worse creatures of the past rolled into one. just he didn’t have to kill his opponents …yet.
“We shoulda, coulda done better all along. But here we are. It’s quite clear that Obama is totally bamboozled. He has no culture to deal with this situation, nor does Hillary.”
This is so delusional.
Here’s the story about how we’ve been helping the people behind the Egyptian demonstrations, quietly but effectively, for the past three years.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
You people on the right still don’t get it. Jumping up and down, hooting and hollering and making a spectacle of yourself for the cameras over the news of the day, isn’t how things actually get down. Quiet, boring , steady work over an extended period of time, in furtherance of a well-thought-out strategy, is how things get done.
This cheap, slightly desperate-sounding, shot at the Obama administration reminds me of nothing so much as “OMG! Obama has to suspend his campaign, too, right now!” I know you’re a creature of the DC media now, Mr. Leeden, but not everything is about the news cycle. Ask Vice-President Palin.
Joe did you actually read the Telegraph article or only the headline? The article talks about ONE Egyptian who attended a conference in New York, returned to Egypt, and told the US Embassy he would organize regime change before the 2011 elections. They thought he was nuts, as reported in the cable from Wikilinks. There is no evidence that we have been “helping the people behind the Egyptian demonstrations,” any more than we have been helping the people “behind” the Iranian, Tunisian, Yemeni, Syrian, Jordanian or Albanian demonstrations.
Joe,
So you want to give credit to the O’Bama Administration for fomenting a revolution that will likely result in another Islamic Theocracy in the Middle East. You make the authors point almost as well as he did.
I wonder if many people watching the films of these riots are asking why? It’s true they are not rioting in western suits but they are dressed a lot better than the rioters in the average American ghetto. This is what convinces me the Muslims are behind this. I also notice there very few women involved in these riots. I think they know what’s coming.
Interesting. But not everything in the ME is about Iran, Michael. You say that the Green Revolution is the inspiration for the uprising in Egypt. It appears as if Tunisia was the spark. As Fouad Ajami said last night, Egyptians felt shamed that little Tunisia could do it, and they sit and do nothing. [I was absolutely wrong about the impact of Tunisia.]
I don’t believe the average Egyptian pays much attention to the slow, grinding process in Iran. But Tunisia did catch their attention.
As to the outcome, I don’t believe Mubarak will survive. It is to me more of a question if a new military dictatorship will emerge. Probably, in the short run; in the mid or long runs it is more predictable. Just my thoughts…
Things one should learn from all this:
1. There are no “experts;” i.e., anyone who knows what’s going on and who can predict what will happen. Nobody saw this coming. So, why should anybody listen to the talking heads now?
2. No one was smart enough to take the Facebook, Youtube, internet, etc. into adequate account re: social impact.
3. As the seduction of Hollywood movies and rock and roll were to Russian young men back a generation ago, no one is writing or paying attention to what power do the images of western “freedom” (actually, license; but that’s another matter), in particular naked western girls, have to generate demand for change in horrible Muslem countries, where boys and girls can’t even talk to one another.
4. Will the prospect and hope of getting laid prove stronger than Islamism? i.e., getting laid 72 times in heaven. The answer to this question will determine the fate of mankind. (I’m betting on the latter; but see #1 above)
5. In the west, more and more are older and older, and fewer and fewer are young (and therefore fewer must support more). In the Arab world the more and more are younger and younger. What are they to do? What is the inevitable upheaval to be?
6. Here, 9.5% unemployment is a lot. There 20-40% unemployment is normal. There are only so many people needed to serve coffee. Here, people have no jobs because what used to be a valuable thing to do is no longer valuable. A person needs to learn to make himself valuable. In the Arab world, almost NOBODY knows how to do anything of any value. That’s why they are not only unemployed, but unemployable. Once you grow the garbanzo beans for the felafel, what’s to do? How do you say “low IQ” in Arabic?
7. When will somebody, maybe Fareed Zacharia, blame the Jews…oops, I mean “Israel?”
8 “As the World Turns,” brought to you by humanity. Will insane anti-Semitism destroy humanity? And if so, will the Earth heave a big sigh of relief?
9. The media has already begun mistaking “freedom,” “democracy,” etc. (see Wa Po idiot-orial today) for license.
10. Hold onto your hats — there’s gonna be a lot of people killed….
Iran could have been a form of democracy. But Jimmy Carter was a peanut-brain. However, thwe anointed,teleprompter orator, Barack Hussein Obama is worse than Carter in so mnay ways and issues. And Obama’s speech in Cairo is an example of his limited knowledge, his phoniness and preference.
“I am honored to be in the timeless city of Cairo, and to be hosted by two remarkable institutions. For over a thousand years, Al-Azhar has stood as a beacon of Islamic learning, and for over a century, Cairo University has been a source of Egypt’s advancement. Together, you represent the harmony between tradition and progress. I am grateful for your hospitality, and the hospitality of the people of Egypt. I am also proud to carry with me the goodwill of the American people, and a greeting of peace from Muslim communities in my country: assalaamu alaykum.”
“As a student of history, I also know civilization’s debt to Islam. It was Islam — at places like Al-Azhar University — that carried the light of learning through so many centuries, paving the way for Europe’s Renaissance and Enlightenment. It was innovation in Muslim communities that developed the order of algebra; our magnetic compass and tools of navigation; our mastery of pens and printing; our understanding of how disease spreads and how it can be healed. Islamic culture has given us majestic arches and soaring spires; timeless poetry and cherished music; elegant calligraphy and places of peaceful contemplation. And throughout history, Islam has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious tolerance and racial equality.”
Transcript of Barack Obama’s speech at Cairo University
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/06/04/f-obama-egypt-speech004.html
Al-Azhar is a forked tongue university, I have read. Plus the Muslims took many of the above inventions and ideas from India and China and few other countries.
I linked Michael Ledeen’s piece to
Protests & Riots in Muslim Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt… Who’s next? England? America?
http://onwardjames.blogspot.com/2011/01/protests-riots-in-muslim-tunisia-yemen.html
Michael, it is axiomatic that Obama has to pick a side.
No, I don’t mean in Egypt. I mean here.
Obama has never really been on America’s “side” in any conflict. The people around him have been anti-America so long, they reflexively look at every event in the world to find the “root fault” upon which to blame ourselves.
I would bet heavily that his instinct is to “apologize” for Mubarak, to Mubarak, about Mubarak, with Mubarak and against Mubarak all in the same sentence.
He turned his back on the freedom seekers in Iran. That’s because there is no purchase to gain in apologizing for the shah any longer, Carter beat him to it.
In his best yet to come Carter moments, Obama can destabilize the dollar, put oil at crushing prices, force a “green movement” without the hoax of global warming, and bring about stagflation…collapsing capitalism…in one fell swoop.
All he has to do is mishandle Egypt …and then wash his hands of the affair saying that Mubarak was an “inherited” problem.
In the Middle East, we often have to choose between Al Capone and Tony Soprano. The mullahfia in Iran lets all of its wise guys in other countries whip up the frenzy and get their hands dirty.
Back home, the free market system is teetering on the brink. What we don’t seem to recognize quite yet, is the opportunity that has been handed to the leftists…to push us off the cliff.
obama has picked a side. both here and in egypt.
marxist communist progressive ..leftist socialist for the USA
………………..and the muslim brotherhood for egypt.
QE2 was the tipping point in Tunisia ….food prices brought people to the street.
QE2 devalued the dollar and the oil prices rose to match the disparity with the dollar.
fuel prices have had a significant impact on the poor especially third world poor.
Stay focused: islam is islam is islam. There’s no nuancing it.
BHO, by just being where he’s, IS encouraging them.
Christianity and the West (in both Europe and America) are under attack, and there’s no nuancing it. Muslim lands’s regimes in the islamists way are on the way out, all over the World.
…obama got the 3 o’clock phone call and let the answering machine take it.
1) I read that obama insisted that the muslim brotherhood be allowed to be in the audience during his Cairo speech (I don’t know if that is true)
2) I think last years uprising in Iran could have been fruitful if only there was a strong horse in the white house.
3) I think only the muslim brotherhood will gain in Egypt and Tunisia
4) Michael ..I think the peaceful transition in South Africa was for appearances ..they will go like Zimbabwe in less then one generation. That was my prediction when the communist took power and I have not changed my position just now think that it will happen faster then I previously thought.
5) QE2 was a contributing factor in the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. It devalued the american dollar which resulted in an immediate increase in fuel prices. This hit the poor and middle very hard around the word …food is more expensive. Third world countries hit the hardest (or have the least opportunity to make up for higher food prices).
I don’t think that the obama group would have the smarts to plan this but the results are the spark that started the Tunisia revolt.
6). the enemies of freedom have been advancing around the globe because there is no strong horse.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/01/carter_redux_1.html
here is a good article on some of the obama charm offence (this one is not a spelling error) lol .
You are not wrong, sir.
The South African scenario is still very much being played out.
Zimbabwe was kept fairly stable from the change of government from Ian Smith to Marxist/populist rule in 1979 until South Africa went the same route in 1994.
Then in 94/95 and onwards Zim was allowed to crash.
South Africa is being kept stable for a while until . . . ?
Egypt? Yes, well, I imagine it will go the way it has been set up to go. Global dominoes.
zimbabwe and south africa are not stable …they are not unlike Egypt …it wouldn’t take much to plunge them further into the honeypit.
ask any white farmer. they are picking off the easy victims first ..
Thank you for the excellent column.
Let’s remember that Obama said that he didn’t want to meddle with the internal affairs of Iran when there had been an attempt at a TRUE democratic revolution in there !
It’s interesting how the Iranians are talking about the demonstrations of the “muslim people” in Egypt, as if the millions of Coptic Christians in the country aren’t actively participating in the protests. The Saudis are being just as delusional when they talk about Egypt as a “muslim” nation. We need a break from all of this one-dimensional rhetoric about the essentially muslim character of Arab countries. And as ML would say, faster please!
How does Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei conveniently emerge to spearhead a “social justice” revolution in Egypt, having spent his last 11 years cheer leading for the Iranian regime while serving as director general of the IAEA?
And the “West” gave him a Nobel Peace Prize; of course, they gave one to the kenyan/indonesian phony in the WH too.
….and the Obama administration is afraid, not knowing what to say or do. They just hope for the best with speeches and empty statements, bunch of cowards!!!
Hey Carmelo, I think the short translation of the president’s statement on egypt is “i’m on the side of the winners, whoever that turns out to be.”
– whenever a Muslim leader speaks, whether in Tehran or Obama in Cairo, there are flowers, flowers everywhere…
Demographics seems to me to be what will influence the next big changes coming from the orderly chaos currently occurring in the Middle East.
So, I believe the overwhelming fact to take into account is that practically every one of the humans in all these malignant countries has been BRAINWASHED into a death cult, known as Islam.
And, as poll after poll tell us, there’s hardly ANY sentiment other than for having Islam be the overwhelming aspect of whatever comes out.
That is, when push comes to TERRORISM shove, just as the “people” “freely” elected Hamas, in all those countries with people of the Islamic “faith” the Muslim Brotherhood IS their hoped for revolutionaries.
It’s the ISLAM, stupid!
Perversely, perhaps, the way to get to “Faster, please”, is for ANOTHER Iran to arise, especially in that hellhole known as Egypt.
THEN, and maybe only then, the free world will have to wake up to the Manichean divide of them = Islam verses us = freedom lovers.
Soon enough an epiphany should sweep the world’s noosphere, to wit that WORDS are crap while ACTIONS are what matter.
“Actions speak louder than words” is fighting it out with “The pen is mightier than the sword”.
While the latter saying always counts, the on-the-ground results of all the deadly ACTIONS, heretofore, by dictators such as Mubarak, have inevitably led to the RE-ACTIONS by people who’ve been finally moved beyond the tipping point.
They’re mad as hell, and they’re not taking it any more!
I predict the most ruthless will win – in every case. It is the only route to obtain and hold power in that part of the world.
Thank G-d for civil society and the second amendment.
The uprising started by the “Coptic Christians” who are very poor. Then the Islamofascist Muslim Brotherhood started taking advantage of the situation and trying to create a vacuum in which they can turn the movement on their own side with… the help of the Islamofascist regime in Iran. The same scenario had happened in Iran back in 1979 where the uprising against the Shah had started by the Soviet puppet communists and few other leftist groups all against US influence, etc. but then when Jimmy Carter took note and then he made sure to create that famous “green belt” in the region in which he could undo Russian’s influence and pop up Islamofascists who he stupidly thought were the enemy of the communists. Communists against all odds sided with the Islamofascists and against the Imperialist US and the rest is history. As soon as the Islamofascists took over the power in Iran the first thing they did was purging the same communists who had given them the green light and open path to march on.
Wow how history repeats itself….
It’s mind boggling.
Egypt’s events must be followed everyday but I do not see much of hope here in terms of any real democracy unless people use their wisdom in pushing back Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic Jihad and Hamas’s mafia style influence in the uprisings and do not let them direct and then dictate the course of events the way it happened some 30 years ago in Iran.
I read that Mubarak appointed the head of the Egyptian intelligence service as his new VP. Does it seem counterproductive, when the people are calling for you to resign, to make the head of the secret police your second-in-command? I mean, what kind of message is Mubarak sending? Or is Suleiman a well-known and popular figure in Egypt despite being a spook? somebody – I need a clue.
man! some of the stuff i am reading here is ridiculous.
something i feel the need to say is that as Americans, we probably only know 5% of whatever is happening across the pond.
people around the world are generally ALL THE SAME (if you cannot realize this you cannot entirely grasp any concept i’m about to explain)
knowing this, and knowing how much media propaganda occurs allllllllllll over the internet television radio etc. in the middle east (and everywhere else in the world) what makes you think its not happening (even just a little bit) over here?
anything you’ve seen/read that instills fear in your heart with the purpose of political agenda is 99% of the time a one-sided story. this is obvious. all of the stories i am reading instill fear with the purpose of political agenda. except for a few.
one thing that should be widely understood is that the people revolting in Egypt and other Arab nations are the common people of the nation. Yes if this were happening in America 80% of these comments would’ve been exchanged by the writer for a slice of real revolutionary action. the leaders of this revolt are the individuals’ minds. much like in any revolution.
there is probably a presence of islamic extremists, think about the presence of extremists in America during our revolution. look it up, or have you forgot our history after this short 300 years? Anyways, the presence of extremists is not a huge deal. every body here assumes (by propaganda) that all arab people are easily manipulated (unless its for something we want, then they’re impossible) and that all arab people want to kill Americans. This is simply a revolt by the people for the people. no body is thinking about America right now, get over it.
The people will win this revolt, because it cannot go any other way. either all citizens die in revolt and there is no longer a true country but a gathering of dead hearts sharing the same soil, or the citizens obtain what it is they want. islamic extremists are NOT viewed as citizens by the common people. they are viewed as a political party. extremists will have to be elected in order to obtain power there will be no immediate seizure of power by ANYONE. it will be hard for ANY ONE to gain power in these places. the people are unstable and unhappy with government/power/religion as it is. why would they go and immediately undo everything they’ve done? they wouldn’t.
Due to the hilarious stories brought about by news media here we are also led to believe that Arab’s are stupid… even if its not directly said we’re told that they’re so easily persuaded by people that want to dismember their bodies. If you’ve ever met an Arab you’ll know he’s one of the most stubborn intense over the top people you’ll ever meet.. persuasion is HARD with the arabs. They are not an ignorant people and aren’t going to be easily taken over by any one authority. This has been proven over the many years of civilization.
The idea that arab’s need to unite under only ONE authority is silly, and that’s where i think most Americans are having trouble. I think that Egyptians aren’t looking for some stupid government written in stone to run their country, they want what every human on the planet wants, and they plan to get it. It doesn’t matter who gets to relish in the pathetic light that is political dominance so long as the egyptian people as a whole are happy and comfortable in their country. This is how every single country on the face of the earth works
And as for all the Americans terrified of some body coming to get them: turn off your t.v. and go meet these people before you fear them.
No, people around the world are NOT the same. That’s one of the things I have most enjoyed about my life: been to lots of different places and gotten to know lots of different people and different kinds of people.
…American, and go back to where you belong, Jordan.
On another note, the revolution is occurring because of something that happens ALL THE TIME ALL OVER THE WORLD AND REPEATS ITSELF.
rich get richer and fewer, the poor get poorer and greater in numbers, until theres one rich d-bag named Mubarak and a whole army of angry hungry frustrated crazed poor people. what the hell did you think was going to happen????????
This is happening in America, the rich/poor divide. Revolution occurs when the poor is far stronger than the rich.
This is one of the major fall/revolutionary ideas that inspires all revolutions around the world.
Trying to compare a political agenda in which there is an attempt to create a more concrete society instead of Rich vs Poor is ASKING for a revolution. I am of the younger generation here in America and i have to say that most of us kids in America are ready to go, we just need a push (the egyptians just got their push) Generation clean-up.
yeah you american kids are really suffering aren’t you? Oh the misery…
Go back to your country of origin, and start a revolution there, punk.
I don’t see how this generation of American “kids” can complain about poverty when none of them seem to have jobs anymore. Or are you talking about some other bunch of poor people? Try working for a living, and if you still find yourself poor THEN you’ll have grounds to start a revolution.
ha…humanity is all the same the world over. how soon the looting has started.. totally disgusting. always gotta take what is not theirs. sounded like Oakland.
Egypt is too important to have a fool like obama telling them what they need to do.
it will happen here in America. planned, faked, carried out, martial law..brown shirts..
i think that muslims as a group could be the anti Christ..okay,okay, merely a thought..
I have seen this movie before and it does not have a happy ending. I commend you, Dr. Ledeen, for seeing El-Baradei for what he really is. As the head of the IAEA he made sure that all legitimate attempts at legal nuclear inspections of occupied Iran were sabotaged, which bought valuable time for the thug scientists. It was as if the IRI had its own agent running the agency. Maybe they did. I hope Mr. Baradei is not feeling too smug these days. It would behoove him to remember the fate of Shahpour Bakhtiar, Mehdi Bazargan, Ablohassan Bani Sadr and other “secular democratic reformers” who embraced the overthrow of the Shah only too find out that such revolutions will eat their own first born after they had lost their usefullness. I also hope that President Mubarrak has learned a lesson for the Shah’s fate and does not fold when the heat is turned up. The uprising has to be quelled at all costs and then he can start on his reforms.
ADINA KUTNICKI makes an impassioned statement analyzing the current Egyptian “Day of Rage” (يوم الغضب) revolution. Her interpretation contains many perceptive points, such as the abysmal ignorance of both the Bush and Obama administrations in understanding the forces at work in the Middle East (and beyond).
But like Osama bin Laden and his now numerous epigones, Adina misinterprets this rage as having an unseen but nevertheless powerful Islamic undercurrent just waiting to come to the fore and to power as a first step in establishing a world-wide Caliphate.
Following the 9/11 events and the subsequent US military involvement in Afghanistan, Bin Laden was dealt his biggest shock when he realized (“Where are you?” he asked) that the “Islamic world”, and in particular the Arab Islamic nations, had no intention whatsoever in rising up against the “hated” infidel “crusaders”.
Arab youth, as it turned out, wanted no part of him or his project for a world-wide “umma”. It was his first and ultimately fatal miscalculation.
Similary, the current Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings are as divorced from any religious involvement, implications or portents as you can get.
There hasn’t been a peep in the Arabic media to this effect, none of the signs and slogans carried by the “rioters” even mentions the word Allah, the powerful religious university Al-Azhar (in Cairo), Hamas, the “Palestinians”, Bin Laden, the “mullahs”, the Friday prayer “deliveries”, the Iranians, the Muslim Brotherhood, in short, any Islamic institution of any consequence has, in effect, been rendered mute. Only the Saudi monarch, ailing and recuperating in Morocco, has “slammed” the protestors as “infiltrators”.
Equally, there hasn’t been a peep vis a vis “Israel” in this uprising. That’s what scares so many. This is a new generation for whom the “injustices” of the past are ancient history.
Any attempt by the “Islamists” to hijack this popular Arab revolution and convert it into any kind of religious uprising will cause the swarming masses of Egypt to turn on them with a ferocity that will make the current riots seem like an Irish wake. They’re not going to touch it. It’s hands off. Even the Muslim Brotherhood with HQ in Egypt, knows this.
Mr. Ledeen:
“So how are we to look at it all?
The basic point is that most everything and everywhere is up for grabs. From Yemen to Iran to Lebanon and Somalia, from Egypt and Jordan to Syria and Tunisia, we’ve got tumult. There are lots of different forces in play, and in many cases there is no way to know who will make what decisions, let alone what decisions they will make. Orders will be given, some of them will be obeyed while others will be ignored.
Welcome to the real world.”
Or….”What hath Bush wrought?”
It took a shipmate of mine to remark that these protests to bring down tyrants and dictators is EXACTLY what George W. Bush TOLD us would happen with the establishment of a working democracy in Iraq.
I’ve gummed it over all day, and the more I chew it, the more it tastes like the fruit of our victory in Iraq.
The mass uprisings are taking place in the most westernized of Muslim nations, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan, (and now Albania), PRECISELY BECAUSE being the most open societies, they are the ones where people have the most access to outside information and are free enough to communicate their common desires to have a say in the way their government runs…just like the Iraqis.
Buck up gang, the War in Iraq has been won… this is what victory looks like. But the struggle to spread democracy throughout the Middle East has just opened several new fronts.
Yes, this means that Islamist groups will have their say in these lands’ political discourse, and that means that we had better be engaged there also, supporting those factions that are more friendly to us and our interests.
We will lose these battles by disengaging from what is happening and writing these popular uprisings off.
That’s great, Bilge. Thanks.
In reading lots of blogs I notice legions of dissemblers. Many people identifying themselves as Arab claim that the Islamists are not behind the protests and won’t be able to establish Islamic states in Lebanon and Egypt or Tunisia. I think you are either naive or intentionally trying to mislead others. It doesn’t matter if most of the people taking to the streets are not Islamists. What matters is who is organized, ready and willing to use brutal violence to seize power. It’s either the secular military or the Islamists. That’s the choice.
Anyone who thinks the result of this revolt in Egypt will a democratic government in any manner, shape or form is going to be sadly mistaken. The best organized and most ruthless will win, and in Egypt that is the Muslum Brotherhood. There will be usual “one man, one vote, once” election, and then there will be Islamic Fascism. The peace treaty with Israel and Egypts alliance with the USA will be footnotes in history in 6 months.
Expect a new war shortly after that.
Who are the “command influences” within Islam? Who are their operatives? Who…not what, motivates civil uprisings? What are their geopolitical objectives?
I would suggest that one cannot isolate the current civil uprising circumstances in Egypt…to only internal factors.
ALL civil uprisings are orchestrated by some underlying special interest command and control structure with specific strategic objectives.
I would further submit that it is Saudi Arabia and Iran who are the central command structures, each with specific and differing authorities for accomplishing strategic objectives. Under this command structure come a host of operative organizations and units again, with specific strategic objectives.
Personally, I see two objectives at play. One, to squeeze the Islamic ideological perimeter around Israel. The second is far more broad and complex in strategic nature with several components….rein in and centralize all the evolutionary sects of Islam within the Islamic regions of the world and EXPAND their Islamic influence and theocracy around the world.
I see ALL the recent uprisings in the Islamic regions as being orchestrated from the “external” Islamic influences of Saudi Arabia and Iran with the EXCEPTION of the uprising in IRAN, which is more Western influenced. I suspect that Saudi Arabia and Iran use internal factors of various countries to create uprisings that will, in their opinion, strategically duplicate the outcome of Iran when the Shah of Iran was assassinated and the government overturned, lending to the current form of theocracy.
All that said, I think that Egypt is a bit unique in that, so much is dependent upon what position the military ultimately takes and we simply do not have the independent intelligence on the ground to offer viable insight at this particular moment. I suspect they will delay until they see what the political outcome is most likely to be.
I think obama is backing the muslim brotherhood.
http://weaselzippers.us/2011/01/30/egypt-muslim-brotherhood-throws-its-support-behind-former-un-official-mohamed-elbaradei/
the muslim brotherhood know to bring a more popular face to the table. they have their front man in place!!!!!
“Liberal Middle eastern” seems to be saying, re: BHO:
“Once a community organizer, always a community organizer!”
I guess that means that this is just his first real “away game”, huh?
And, according to that theory, Iran was apparently just an unsuccessful scrimmage which we can now blithely ignore . . .
In conclusion, LME concludes that we should all just cool our jets, sit back and enjoy the wonderful emerging spectacle, brought to you by “The One”!
Tell us, LME, have you been reading a few too many e-mails from Nigeria? If so, I hate to be the one to break it to you, but you’r NOT getting the money!
I started reading:
“Liberal Middle eastern” seems to be saying, re: BHO:
“Once a community organizer, always a community organizer!”
…….
But that wasn’t even close to what we are discussing above. So I felt it will be a waste of time to read the rest.
El Baradei joins the “Muslim Brotherhood” in solidarity to push forward gaining the momentum for taking control of the events and their eventual victory.
As I have said many many times this SOB must have been arrested long ago when he headed IAEA and collaborated with the terrorist regime ruling over Iran! Better even he should be tried for his assistance of the terrorist regime.
And this man was once a “Noble Peace Prize Winner”????? Remember then? It was all a backlash against Bush and the hatred of our ignorant so called “Progressives” towards him!!!
So much ground to cover, but this is all I have time for…
“As I’ve remarked in the past – but you can’t say the truth too often, right? — nobody knows what a revolution looks like.”
– Well, thanks for the unassailable proof of your truthiness, ML.
“The mullahs have been pounding their chests and claiming to have inspired the insurrections. Everywhere.”
And yet… “You can be sure that the mullahs are frightened by a lot of this.”
Silly mullahs. Guess they don’t know how to toss out a powerful autocrat and rule a fractious country for 30 years.
“For the president to say ‘Egypt’s destiny will be determined by the Egyptian people,’ or ‘everyone wants to be free’ is silly and dangerous.”
Yes, how much more constructive for an American leader relatively well respected in the Arab world to say instead something like, oh, “Destiny will be determined by a fight among Egyptian people.”
Go to it, Egyptians!
“It’s quite clear that Obama is totally bamboozled. He has no culture to deal with this situation, nor does Hillary.”
Yes, obviously what real American leaders would do is go all in full speed ahead on the side of the freedom-loving demonstrators in all these countries. It’s not like we could get caught up in a civil war that lasts 10 years or something.
You had one smart grandma. Sounds just like my father (who was the smartest ever.)
somebody know information about Egypt meeting in that moment? and who have photo from Egypt? plz give me a link to see this photo!!
sorry if i post this message wrong topic.
Fact. Many Arab nations have been on the wrong side in WWI and WWII. With this track record it is foolish to say that we have no right to judge. I am proud that the Pax Americana has interrupted the centuries of world war and let my son grow up without being drafted. I fully support being very leary of resurgent facism.