March 31, 2003

THE FOG OF SARS: Blogging on the SARS outbreak is a bit like blogging on the progress of the war. You know that something is going on, but you’re pretty sure you aren’t getting the whole story, or even a very representative slice.

That said, this graph of cases and deaths is interesting. The number of cases continues to climb, but not the number of deaths. I think that means one of the following: (1) The outbreak started, or at least was first noticed, in an unusually vulnerable population; or (2) the virus is becoming less deadly; or (3) the reporting is wrong, and the number of deaths is actually greater now, or the number of cases was actually greater earlier. Which is it? Beats me.