RICHARD FERNANDEZ: The Surprising Weakness Of Invincible Institutions.

Winston Churchill memorably predicted the end of the German East Asia Squadron when it slipped out of Tsing-tao harbor under Admiral Maximilian von Spee. “He was a cut flower in a vase, fair to see yet bound to die.” Winston knew that the Spee’s s squadron however imposing and bravely led had no means of support. Sooner or later it would come to grief, which it duly did.

The same calculation must apply to the giant bureaucracies that pretend to rule the world. At first glance there is nothing seemingly more formidable than the interlocking shield wall of public institutions and public sector unions. One writer argued that JFK was “the real killer of Laquan McDonald” because he first authorized public employee unions and “police unions make it impossible to get rid of bad-apple cops”. Camelot had created a Frankenstein monster able to run roughshod over everything.

Yet it’s a monster which just can’t seem to do much. For example the Washington Metro, the pride of the nation’s capital, is collapsing. Once “it was a rail system of the future. Then, reality set in.” Perhaps the most telling indicator of fundamental weakness is the public pension crisis. A study by the Hoover Institution covering 97% of all state and local governments found that politicians have little or no ability to meet their pension promises.

All of this is covered in Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse Of Complex Societies. Short version: Layers of complexity are applied in order, essentially, to divert resources to the ruling class. These complexities produce inflexibility (because every change impacts somebody’s rice bowl, or reduces opportunities for graft) which make the society less able to adapt to change.