SPENGLER: The 30% solution — when war without end ends. “Nations do not fight to the death, but they frequently fight until their pool of prospective fighters has reached a point of practical exhaustion. In most cases, this involves reaching the 30% mark where casualties are concerned. Wars of this character demarcate many turning points in world history.”

This reminds me of Josh Marshall’s 2003 worries that we hadn’t killed enough Iraqis to ensure a stable outcome there, which in retrospect seem better-founded than I thought at the time. Sorry, Josh, I should’ve taken that more seriously.