January 14, 2014

TRAINWRECK UPDATE: Another Really Bad Obamacare Enrollment Report.

As many of us have expected, the exchanges aren’t even close to the number of young people the Administration claims to need to prevent an eventual death spiral.

But that’s not the really dispiriting data for Obamacare supporters. What should have them panicking is the data HHS released on subsidies. Page 11 of the report gives a breakdown. Of the 1.9 million enrollees for which there is data, about 1.65 million, or 79%, have financial assistance. That rate is probably as high as financial assistance is going to get. Despite that, enrollment of the 18-34-year-olds is, well, pitiful.

According to the Administration, about 2.7 million of the projected 7 million enrollees in the exchanges need to be 18-34-years-old—that’s about 39%. Here is the age breakdown from the report:

Only 24% of those enrolled in the exchanged are between the ages of 18-34, a far cry from 39%. Those age 54 and over—i.e., those who are likely to make the most medical claims—comprises 55% of enrollment.

The crux of the matter is if an enrollment population is comprised of only 24% 18-34-year-olds when nearly 80% of that population have subsidies, what are chances that the age mix will improve?

Especially as the “narrow networks” will mostly appeal to people desperate for any healthcare at all — i.e., sick people.