October 5, 2012
EVERYONE KNOWS THE ECONOMIST IS A RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY SITE! — RIGHT? ECONOMISTS FROM RDQ ECONOMICS: Economists: unemployment drop “implausible,” a “statistical quirk.” Yeah, I misread it as being The Economist. Not sure how, but I’m going to blame lack of chocolate. Point doesn’t change. The economists ( John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros) say:
Such a rapid decline in the unemployment rate would be consistent with 4%–5% real economic growth historically but much of the decline is accounted for by people dropping out of the labor force (over the last year the employment-population ratio has risen to only 58.7% from 58.4%). We believe part of the drop in the unemployment rate over the last two months is a statistical quirk (the household data show an increase in employment of 873,000 in September, which is completely implausible and likely a result of sampling volatility). Moreover, declining labor force participation over the last year (resulting in 1.1 million people disappearing from the labor force) accounts for much of the rest of the decline. With this report, the ISMs, and vehicle sales, the September economy is off to a better-than-expected start but nowhere near as good as suggested by the decline in the unemployment rate.
So, it’s still who are you going to believe? Them or your lying eyes? Do you see the economy booming around you, if you don’t live in DC?