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Rubin Reports

The international media is speculating on Obama’s visit to Israel scheduled for late March. The arguments are that he would not come unless he gets some breakthrough — that is, some Israeli concession — or he wouldn’t leave happy unless he received one.

So what would this concession be? The most likely candidate would be a freeze on constructing buildings within existing settlements, as Israel gave him three years ago. At that time, despite a ten-month freeze, the Palestinian Authority only came to talks at the last minute, offered nothing, and then quickly demanded another freeze. In other words, Israel did precisely what Obama asked and got nothing in return, either from his government or the Palestinians.

Actually — it is not technically true to say “nothing.” Secretly, the U.S. government promised to accept that Israel could annex “settlement blocs.” (A promise originally made by Obama’s predecessor, George W. Bush.) That is, to keep the largest existing settlements near the border in exchange for territorial swaps in a peace agreement, and to continue building in east Jerusalem.

What happened? A few months later, visiting Vice President Joe Biden threw a tantrum about an announced zoning board decision that at some future point Israel might build in pre-1967 Jordanian-ruled territory. In effect, that was a violation of the agreement.

Then, while not explicitly going back on the settlement bloc agreement without notifying Israel, Obama made a major speech in which he put the emphasis on Israel’s return to the pre-1967 borders (that is, giving up the settlement blocs), though he did leave the door ajar for territorial swaps. That was not breaking the pledge, but it certainly undermined it.

After doing what Obama wanted and then getting little or nothing in exchange, Israel is now faced with claims that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu never made any concessions to get negotiations going. After going along with Obama, it is now said in the United States that he tried to undermine Obama or didn’t cooperate.

And after the Palestinian Authority repeatedly killed negotiations — even after Obama announced in 2010 that they would begin shortly at Camp David and Netanyahu agreed — it is a mainstay of mass media coverage that Netanyahu is responsible for the failure of negotiations to happen.

A friend joked that Netanyahu should change his first name from Benjamin to “Hard-line,” since that’s the way he’s usually presented in the Western media.

Thus, Israeli cynicism should be — if people know the factors behind it — understandable. After all, the sum total of international wisdom on the now-dead (but pretended to be alive) “peace process” is that this means Israel giving up things and getting nothing in return.

Yet Israel is prepared to go along with Obama again in some fashion. Why? Because it is necessary to preserve the strong relationship with the United States. Obama will be president for the next four years, and some help from him is needed on the Iran nuclear issue, the likely growing threat from Egypt, military aid, and other issues.

That is political reality.

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