What Does Israel Do if Obama Is Reelected?
“Don’t Panic” — Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy
I’m going to try to analyze what Israeli strategy might look like if Obama were to be reelected. I don’t want to write a partisan piece — predicting every type of the most horrible disaster and open hatred from the White House — but a serious analytical effort. This involves speculation, but policymakers have to develop the most likely scenarios in order to plan ahead.
Let me start, though, with a joke. An asteroid hits the ocean, producing a giant tidal wave so powerful that within an hour all land will be covered by water. Television networks put on a variety of politicians, alleged wise people, and religious figures to speak with the doomed population. The rabbi among them explains: “All I can say is that you have one hour to learn to breathe underwater.”
That is Israel’s mission. To survive a second Obama term brought on it by the American — including a large majority of American Jewish — voters.
The first thing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does is send a warm message of congratulations to the reelected president. He is going to be president for four years, like it or not, and Israeli leaders will work hard to minimize any antagonism. At least with Netanyahu strongly entrenched, Obama will understand that he cannot subvert the Israeli government to get some other prime minister more to his liking (i.e., someone ready to make unilateral concessions in exchange for getting nothing in return).
So with that basis established, here’s Israel’s Obama problem divided into four issues:
1. Maintaining bilateral relations
Israel’s government needs to ensure the continuation of U.S. aid, including assistance for anti-missile systems; intelligence sharing; and other forms of cooperation. Unless Obama decides to go all-out on an anti-Israel vendetta, he is likely to see this issue as a low-priority one. All he has to do is nothing.
Here, Israel’s contacts with Congress and the Defense Department will be critical. The Democrats in Congress will have to show whether they still do actually support Israel — and a majority of them do — by joining with the Republicans in backing continued aid and cooperation. The Defense Department has generally good relations with Israel and also benefits from Israel’s technological advances.
There are real prospects for maintaining bilateral relations on their current level. Obama can be expected to mistreat Netanyahu and to say things that totally misunderstand Israel and insult its interests, but when you are a country of 7.5 million allied with a superpower, your leaders have to take such behavior, as long as it remains verbal.
Dear Professor,
Please forgive me, but for the umpteenth time the only long term solution in Syria is partition and population exchange along the analogous lines of what happened in the Western provinces of the Ottoman empire (between SE Europe and Anatolia)about a 100 years ago. The situation in Syria (and Turkish Kurdistan ,I might add) is just unfinished business from the Ottoman Empire’s dissolution in that time period. Sunnis, Alawis Shia, Kurds, Christians and Druze will never be able to live under one roof in a united Syria ever again.
sorry for the error , the above should have been in the previous article on Syria. My apologies, accidents do happen
Barry,
If Obama is reelected, should Israel play the China card (or Russian card, or Indian card or..)?
I was asking myself the same question.
There will be a lot of oil to sell (from the Eastern Mediterranean) in the future.
And China badly needs it.
Whether there will be oil (and how much) is undetermined. There is gas, and in all likelihood whatever surpluses are available for export will go to Europe. This is what pragmatism dictates.
What you are proposing is suicide for the Israelis, I suggest you reevaluate your position.
The “India card” isn’t suicidal. The relations between India and Israel formed after the fall of the USSR have been growing stronger since, with no harmful consequences to either side. Israel has already surpassed Russia as India’s #1 arms supplier (might be surpassed in the future by the US…) and there are many other ties, military and civilian. And unlike China, they don’t sell Israeli military technology to Israel’s enemies. The US initially opposed to various Israeli arms deals with both China and India, but came around re India. Furthermore, Israel assisted a rapprochement between the US and India. Since the collapse of the Soviet bloc India is gradually moving toward the West, in spite of some remaining “Third World”, post-colonial and other Marxist rhetorics and the Marxist intelligentia. The Indian right-wing is pro-American, and the left-wing is pragmatic enough. They also don’t have the same aspirations as Russia and China. India is not a rival, much less an enemy, of the US. It is a rival, however, of China, so I figure a normal American president should view any strengthening of India positively. It also has a nuclear armed Muslim enemy and a significant terrorism problem going on for decades. And unlike Pakistan, India is unlikely to give shelter and aid to the terrorists, and the Hindu majority isn’t likely to sympathize with them (to put it politely).
China and Russia are a different case altogether. As with India, the price for stronger relations with these superpowers will be military technology, but unlike the Indian case, it will be harmful to both American and Israeli interests. However, if America decides to change sides or otherwisw throw Israel under the bus, Israel will have no other alternative. In this case it shouldn’t be thought of as suicide, but as an aggressive treatment that is sure to hurt some vital organs, but where the only other alternative is certain death.
I don’t think it’s in America’s best interest to throw Israel to the Muslims. We’re too small to be a threat to a superpower, but we can be a major pain in the behind by assisting rival superpowers. During the Cold War we gave the US many coveted Soviet weaponry items, including a fully functioning Mig, a novel radar system and other items. Plus hard copies of Khrushchev’s secret speech in the Kremlin, which was the final proof for the existence of gulags and caused a major blow to Soviet support in the West. When France, our former ally until the late 60s, changed sides and cancelled an already paid-for aircraft deal, we managed to put our hands on the designs for the Mirage and develop our own airplanes. I also wouldn’t dismiss Israeli capabilities in creating original innovative technologies, good enough to compete with similar American products and be used by the American military, (and also in significantly improving Russian technologies, which was proven with both Indian and Chinese Russian-made equipment). And both China and Russia will have more of an incentive than the US to invest in Israeli technology in fields Israel’s resources are currently too limited to develop. I think it would be a mistake for the US also because it wouldn’t gain new friends by sacrificing, or attempting to scarifice, 7 million Israelis. That wouldn’t appease the Muslims enough to even prevent riots when the next anti-Islam movie is produced by someone in America. It would only make the US look like a weak and treacherous ally no one can trust.
I don’t think we should pull these cards as a response to merely reelecting Obama. However, it should be clear to the US and everyone else that Israel will not go down quietly. We will not submissively accept our own genocide and do nothing about it. If the US changes sides we’ll do whatever it’ll take to survive, and after an American betrayal, if it comes to pass, American interests should be of no consequence whatever to us. Merely reelecting Obama doesn’t mean the worst is certain to pass, but if the Obamadmin makes any significant moves to degrade the relations Israel should make moves that will suggest the consequences of this degradation. E.g. if the Obamadmin cancelles some major arms deal we should respond by negotiating some major arms deal with China and make sure the linkage is understood. It should be clear that there will be some price to pay, that Israel also has its sting even if we don’t fly airplanes into buildings, storm American embassies and behead American contractors and social workers. After all the Muslims get concessions, and might get us, because they threaten and follow their threats – because they hurt the West, not because they’re friends. Friends and allies mean nothing to this admin – it’s only enemies and threats that count. This admin, at best, takes American allies for granted, no matter what America does, and it doesn’t work like that. A country that systematically betrays its allies to appease its enemies will lose its allies and not gain new ones because no one needs a treacherous friend. Would you become a new friend of someone you know has backstabbed all their old friends?
India would not be a reliable ally. They still have an anti-colonial frame of mind and are active in the non-allied movement. They just went to the meetings in Iran.
Strangely enough, it may be Russia with which Israel will have to reach some kind of accommodation. Also, if the Shiite Islamic states continue to gain power, Turkey will rapidly come to regret its dumping of the alliance with Israel. Another strange result of all the current upheavals is that Saudi Arabia’s survival may come to depend on Israel’s strength. S.A. will never admit this out loud but I wouldn’t be surprised to see their attitude to Israel changing. It is not only Israel that can not rely on the USA, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia certainly feel this too.
I like this phrase “anti-colonial frame of mind”.
Please explain if practicable.
Second, India has regional needs and yes, Iran is a friend of India. India needs friends in that region and Iran is a supply route to Afghanistan.
Third, India is also a friend of Israel, however, India also supports Palestinian Emancipation.
Finally, as the non-aligned meeting shows, India follows the “golden middle path”
I am also interested to read Prof. Rubin’s reply.
China has a billion people and is investing in education on all levels. I think it would be a good idea for Israeli and Chinese scientists and engineers to work together on – clean energy technologies, biotech etc.
It is already happening a lot
I have written about this and will write more in future. China and India, yes. Russia: no such option.
The US role as Israel’s protector has been somewhat exaggerated. In a curious-if-logical twist, some of this has come from American-Israelis and pro-Israel American Jews of the vanishing kind. It is natural, given the love for the US that nearly all Jewish Americans carry – including those here.
In reality, the protection has always come at a heavy price. The vote in the UN Security Council is where the nature of the relationship, the harsh side, plays out. For US Presidents have traditionally held out a threat of letting the Russians, Chinese, French and British have their way with Israel. The military support has always been conditioned on receiving weapons and intelligence from this country. US aid to Israel has always been paid back in full.
I would not panic. I believe Obama loses on 6 November. Nor will Romney be nearly as pro-Israel as anti-Obama folks believe right now, when the heat is high and everybody’s emotions are rubbed raw.
The option of strengthening ties with India is a good one – except the current Indian government seems to sit on the fence, even to strengthen Iran.
India is expert at playing both sides. The Israeli relationship with India
is a positive, but its advantages whouldnt be overstated. India also has lots
of drawbacks to development – corruption, weak infrastructure etc. The rich are getting richer in India and a consumerist middle class is developing, but
the majority of Indians still live in terrible poverty.
Thanks. I don’t know that much about India, but your description makes sense. And from what I have heard from Indians in Silicon Valley, the corruption is a huge problem. Also the enormous Muslim population tempers any move towards Israel.
Feeling the love.
Whatever. You write things that suggest that all Jewish liberalism is predicated on hatred of Christianity. So your pique is worthless to me.
Might as well go ahead and throw the US under the bus and court China. The Christian Zionists in the GOP will still support you and the Jewish Americans in the Democrat Party will still bend them to support Israel. Jewish money and media power will assure the rest.
Why wait for Obama to get re-elected?
Might as well take US support for granted and broaden your horizons, it would seem.
The Chinese would love American military technology and secrets, and would pay hamsomely for them, no doubt.
Honestly, Gingrich made the only intelligent remark on US Foreign Affairs I have seen yet: the Keystone pipeline affair has pushed Canada into (at least) and economic alliance with CHINA. How do you like them apples?
Right now, China is pouring money into mining exploration into northern Canada. Chinese money has funded at least 2 big mines in Yukon Territory (you know, that triangle beside Alaska, 250,000 square miles…). The Canadian government is quite aware of the “American” money pouring through ‘charities’ to stop such developments, and is in the process of changing our laws. Hey, David Suzuki has lost his ‘charitable’ status!!!
With close to half America’s population still supporting Obama, and almost all the elite (media and university intellectuals) on board with diminishing America’s world power… well, can you blame Ottawa? and I assume, Japan and Australia?
The Western and American Left is destroying us (European Christendom, Western Civilization) from within, who knew?
Jewish Leftwingism, not liberalism.
“That is Israel’s mission. To survive a second Obama term brought on it by the American — including a large majority of American Jewish — voters.”
A man can be Jew or Christian, or he can be an Obama supporter, but he can’t legally be Jew or Christian, and be an Obama supporter … except in the usual way: one of the two with the mouth, the other with the heart. The spirit of Judaism and Christianity proclaim the survival of Israel and the meaning of that has no longer been left to guesswork, but made tremendously definite … the Jew and the Christian must fight all who would commit or enable another genocide or enslavement of the Jews or of Christians. That is the spirit and the law of Judaism and Christianity.
Well, Obama has his beliefs and actions and it is a perfectly definite set, there is no vagueness about it. He commands that the Jew and Christian bow to the Muslim at every turn they do him hurt or threaten him and his children with death. Word it as softly as you please, the spirit of Obama is the spirit of the evil shadowed specter of the Beast of Austria insidiously billowing in and building and building to ever more horrific heights. The moment there is a question about a boundary line or a building or some Muslim somewhere complaining about any matter, see Obama rise, and see him spit at the Jew and the Christian from the corner of his twisted mouth. The spirit of Obama being in its nature narcissistic and selfish — it is in the man’s line, it comes natural to him — he can fully live up to all of the teachings of Jeremiah Wright and even of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; for the spirit of Judaism and of Christianity are entirely impossible to him.
That’s a lot of babble.
Can’t legally be an Obama supporter and jew or christian? Malarkey, and you know it. Let me guess, you support the other candidate, who is a member of a false religion with rituals that were borrowed from satanic masonry.
And by golly, this one is a gem:
“The spirit of Judaism and Christianity proclaim the survival of Israel”
Tell that to someone who lived before Israel came to be. I can show you many christians, actually, many millions, who are more concerned about Christ or God than the existence of a jewish state.
“All he has to do is nothing.”
After all, isn’t that what he does best?
Three and a half years later, the only thing Barack Obama has improved is his golf game.
Read more of my article: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/09/the_audacity_of_these_dopes.html#ixzz27CFxMGdi
Obama would attack Iran if and only if he thought that would help his reelection. And let me be clear, they have gamed, focused grouped and polled on an Obama-led attack on Iran.
The fact many American Jews will vote Obama harkens back to the many Jews that supported the NSDAP between the wars. For their relatives in Israel, the outcome may be similar.
the many Jews that supported the NSDAP between the wars
That’s preposterous.
Please quote any reputable source to substantite this assertion. (Don’t quote holocaust deniers.)
I don’t know, I’m really, really, concerned that Israel may attack Iran around election day. They may feel that they have nothing to lose. If Romney wins, they know he will support them. If Obama (God forbid) wins, they will be forcing his hand, making him choose to support Israel or let them twist in the wind.
Obama may want to let them twist in the wind, but Congress and the Republicans won’t let him. They really won’t. And Congress still has the power of the purse and THEY still want to get re-elected, so they will override any veto Obama throws at them regarding Israel. Obama also isn’t stupid. He knows that if he screws Israel in its time of need, he will be throwing away the Jewish vote for EVERY Democrat for a generation to come. And no politician is that stupid. The Democratic party wouldn’t stand for it and neither would any Democrats in Congress. Could you just imagine Debbie Wasserman Schultz just standing by and doing nothing while Obama abandons Israel, especially if it is openly attacked by Iran? Give me a break, that would never happen.
So the moment of truth for Israel could come on November 5, the day before the election. That will be Israel’s and America’s moment of truth.
Libertyship46: Do you really think Obama cares a fig about the future of the Democratic party? Yes, Obama is not that stupid but he is that narcissistic and selfish. Can I imagine “Debbie Wasserman Schultz just standing by and doing nothing”? Yes! Even though being Jewish and supporting Israel should go hand in hand; with American Jewish Liberals it’s not a given anymore.
Laurie J, you are right.
Obama has been neutralizing Jewish interests by importing as many Moslems as he can. All you had to do was watch the voting on G-d and Israel during the DNC. That totally foreshadows the future on the Democratic party.
And the Islamist… Jummah at the DNC event. Even though it was disappeared from the DNC website the day before the event took place…together with the Israel thing, you can see where they are wanting to go.
Mr. Rubin,
I hope you are well, or doing much better.
It appears to me you are being to nice again. The future may be hard on Israel, but the present, and past few years of the BLT Marxist has caused Israel’s enemies to grow in prower.
Am I the only one who thinks Daone, and company has helped the Arab nationalists in Egypt, Libya, North Africa, Syria…? Is not blood on the American tax payer hands for supporting this pagan holiday of blood called the Arab Spring with money, or weapons, or dirrect support?
Maybe I am wrong, but it seems to me, America as well as the rest of the world is being cursed with strange storms, Tornados, never before seen droughts, earthquakes, and social unrest not for what the future brings, but what they have been doing in support of Israel’s enemies. What they have been doing to harm Israel.
Obama is personally responsible for bringing Mubarak down and making way for the Muslim Brotherhood to seize power in Egypt.
Is anyone considering the nuclear capabilities of Israel? Do you think Israel is run by New York Jews? The latest estimate I read is over 200 nukes plus maybe 5 or 6 nuclear submarines and does anyone know where they are? Jews have had to stand around while being thrown under the wagons for thousands of years, but now the Israelies have the power to take many western capitols besides the Muslim world with them if they think they are going down. The world may come to know a much expanded definition of the word Holocaust.
To me, that thought would be more along the lines of the religion of peace, not something those who brought G-d’s morality to the world would do. However, if the UN building were to be targeted, I could understand that.
As I said to my friend who drove me to work today, nuclear weapons are useless if no-one knows you have them. It will be small comfort, with the Jewish people almost wiped out, that we took revenge on our enemies. (In Samson’s case, he was protecting the Jewish population he was responsible for.)
The main use of the arsenal right now is to keep our enemies from using chamical weapons. Whether or not it would deter Iran is unknown.
By the way, we have a second reactor, a small one mainly used for nuclear medicine. Ironically, no-one knows about it because it isn’t secret.
I think the last thing anyone needs to worry about is no one knowing that Israel has nuclear weapons.
A re-elected Obama will have no more need of his democrat voting Jews and the next time Israel responds to palistinian or other Islamic terrorist raids Barack will attack Israel, destroy it’s nuclear weapons stockpiles and the ability to manufacture more.
It’s the Obama way.
What does Israel do if Obama is re-elected?
Continue to depend on their fierce defender, the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob.
Amen!
Also the IAF and 200+ nukes.
It is disgusting that someone like Obama was ever elected and after 4 years of unmitigated disaster will probably be re-elected.
This should give the current generation it’s nickname, generation complete idiot.
The slow jihad is speedimg up. Be floating up a few gears if yhe putz is not dumped. Israel has a history of giving bloody noses to its attackers then making peace. Now it’s total war. They will have to destroy their enemies’ ability to wage war and re-supply. Bibi must know this. Do the Arabs, Turks, and Persians know it?
But do we have the ability to do this?
If there is a pile on, Israel has nukes.
I think that if Obama wins again, it will be an opportunity for Israel to finally become independent from the US. We would still be allies with the US but the financial aid we get from the US even though it’s paid back, is hurting our self-respect and the respect we get from other nations such as Iran.
Should we really have to ask the US to protect us from Iran? No. And once we achieve our complete independence, the Palestinians will have to make peace with us on our terms or go live elsewhere.
I see a re-election of Obama as a tremendous opportunity for the Jewish State of Israel. Are we a Jewish State or a state of jews?
Let me remind you that in 1973 Israel ran out of tanks, planes, and even bullets. It was Nixon who ordered the resupply of Israel’s armed forces. Flash forward to today. With no resupply of American based weapons, such as planes, missiles and even bullets, Israel would have a rough time fighting an extended conventional war let alone a war with an enemy such as Iran. They throughly believe that they can beat Israel even without nuclear weapons. They have over 50,000 missiles in place in Lebanon. Remember the havoc they caused when they had just 10,000 missiles there. Add to that the number of missiles they would fire from Iran itself and you have a hail of explosives hitting Israel. Israel needs a country with reserves to back her. Up to now it has been the US. Conceivably, in the future it might be an Australia or Brazil or India or Japan or Canada. It doesn’t have to be the US, Russia or China. However, it does have to be a country with a resupply capability.
LEt’s not forget that Nixon held off, on purpose. The line at the Syrian border was razor-thin, a group of Yeshiva students (*) with almost zero shells in their tanks.
Even then if it had not been for Watergate (according to the most reasonable estimates of the situation) the resupply might have been delayed further.
Of the four wars in which the Arabs tried to create a second holocaust, in not one was the US on Israel’s side. But they were very good in not letting Israel achieve victory.
(*) Great fighters, by the way.
Exactly right, mzk1.
Conceivably, in the future it might be an Australia or Brazil or India or Japan or Canada. — Andy Gump
ROTF! Thanks for the laugh!
More than capability, it takes balls, and the ability to defend oneself, from those who will virulently hate you for what you are doing.
None of those nations internal politics would allow them to piss off the entire Muslim world and make themselves targets, for the sake of a few arms sales to a few Jews.
That is why you are left with Russia, China, and the US. The only real alternatives.
Besides which, Japan and India are majority pagan nations. Israel has a bad history surrounding relying on pagans for help.
Shoshana, you see the reelection of Obama as a tremendous opportunity? And, pray tell, what opportunities did he bring to Israel in the last four years? In my opinion he would be an unmitigated disaster! And not only for Israel, but for the USA even more so. There is no question that Romney would be far better for Israel. And for the USA
I respectfully disagree that Egypt is a greater danger to Israel than Iran.
The crazy mullahs are close to making a nuclear weapon. The insane zealots in Tehran will not hesitate to use it against Israel.
Egypt does not have IMHO the military capability to defeat Israel, who fights like a badger when her back is to the wall.
“What Does Israel Do if Obama Is Reelected?”
Wait until Jan 20, 2013. And Nuke Washington.
It’s what a real friend would do.
Heh.
Do New York at the same time and leave evidence that Iran and Pakistan did it. Then the USA nukes Pakistan and Iran and everybody lives happily ever after just like in Grimm’s tales.
“I say we pull out and nuke ‘em from orbit. It’s the only way to make sure.”
- FO Ripley.
Have you been reading Prayers for the Assassin again?
Professor Rubin: Your essay deals with future United States middle east foreign policy, (particularly of relations with Israel), but the title appears to be much broader. What of domestic policies? What of a Totalitarian America?
The red line here will be American taxes being sent to shore up California.
Never! They get FEMA, that’s it.
Romney will win then sell California to the Chinese. The Chinese will perform roadside executions on 50% of the population, 100% of the greenies and everybody will live happily ever after, just like in Grimm’s tales.
TWANLOC: Those Who Are No Longer Our Countrymen
You have this thing for fantasizing about your countrymen being killed.
Does that come naturally with being neocon scum?
Oops. I misspoke; please delete the previous comment.
Perhaps a better understanding of why Obama supports Islamist revolutions could be had by considering Hitler’s support for Mussolini’s Italian Fascism. At first glance, one would think the German leader would despise potential competitors for ruler-of-the-world. But Hitler was genuine in his fascism, i.e the belief in organic racial clusters of humans should form totalitarian mobs to replace constitutional governance, including a separate mob for Italians (who were, apparently, acceptably Aryan).
Obama’s contempt for Constitution and law, together with his creepy cult-of-personality campaigning (i.e. stimulus road signs like the “O” symbol, replacing the stars on the American flag with “O”, cultists hijacking the hand-over-heart of the pledge of allegiance to a pledge to Obama) all indicate a man intent on replacing constitutional government with One-party rule. Obama’s fascism is not racial but ideological; but he admires and respects the Islamist revolutionaries as true leaders of their peoples. Planeloads of American communists took the Occupy movement to the streets, then took their Iphones to Egypt to help Obama help launch the Arab Spring. They all believe – as does Obama – that stirring up revolutions, even violent anti-gay misogynistic revolutions, will help provoke the crisis that pushes America toward true socialism.
I’ve held from the day he took office, that Pres. Obama is a North American ‘PERONISTA’. He’s even got his own Evita. Thank God she doesn’t have the ‘Common Touch’ of the original.
If Obama gets a second term the only looser will be The USA. As for the future of the ME, sooner rather than latter It will blow up in such way no matter who gets into WH will make no difference. Watch what’s happening in Turkey not in Egypt, Assad’s trump card is to get Turkey into the fire and when it happens all hell will break lose. As for Israel I’m confident she will take care herself with or without The USA
the administration is pressuring a reluctant Germany to deliver submarines to Egypt. how grotesque would it be if sometime in the future an American aircraft carrier is downed by one of those…
The company that builds those submarines is majority owned by Abu Dhabi’s MAR conglomerate and the UAE even support and supplies Israel with liquid gas since the Egyptians no longer delivered until the Mediterranean ‘Leviathan’ gas-fields will be fully producing.
So the whole situation “down there” isn’t all too ‘Black and White’.
The Israelis are btw. not equipped with nuclear subs. Those submarines are conventionally driven and aren’t even the latest in conventional subs the Germans could have delivered. The Type 212 “is powered by one diesel engine and an electric motor driven by nine fuel cells, making it virtually undetectable.” and thus deemed the most sophisticated conventional sub in the world.
The Israelis are only being sold the Type 209 submarine “The first three Dolphin class submarines built for the Israeli Navy are based on the Type 209 although heavily modified and enlarged.”
And NEEDLESS to say they would never ever down an allies’ ship.
what I meant was .. downed by an Egyptian submarine purchased from Germany and delivered under US pressure…. the ultimate irony
(I have the “pressure” part from an article in the German magazine SPIEGEL)
Sorry I misread your statement. But my reply was also directed to some assertions further upthread that the Israelis had nuclear subs.
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Yeah that would surely be a friggin awful irony if the “good” friends of the 0 attacked their sponsor.
Israel should take the Sinai back and control of the Suez Canal along with the Brits, French, and this time the US.
I hope Israel would attack us.
(They would probably win easily as the WH dithered and tried to dream up a proper spin.)
Then there would still be at least some faint hope of a place for Freedom in the future of humankind.
As the old joke goes, “with our luck, we’d win”.
By his 20 year attendance in Jeromy Wright’s so-called church, by his saying “The Arabic Call to Prayer is the most beautiful sound on Earth”, by his celebrating Ramadan in the White House, by his 2009 speech in Cairo praising Islam, by his call to go back to the pre 1967 war borders, by his giving the Muslim Brotherhood and their auxiliaries entrance to the White House, the State Department and even the military, by his deep bowing to the Saudi King – By each of these things Obama’s calling is plainly revealed. That all united should fail to enlighten the competent inquirer is almost inconceivable.
So as I gaze into my crystal ball, here’s what I see:
If Israel thinks Obama is going to win, they will attack Iran prior to the election because Obama will have less flexibility. He’ll have to support Israel for political/optics reasons.
If Israel thinks Romney is going to win then they will hold off until after the inauguration.
Even with today’s technology, moonless nights are the best time for an attack. We have one more such night prior to the election: October 15.
Not sure where you got that idea but it is factually inaccurate. The better visibility favors the attacker. Air combat is too fast for human reflexes. Computers do the aiming and firing at the fighter-bombers (Jabos). Radar to find them, a computer to target them. Radar doesn’t care if it light or dark, neither does the computer. The Jabos know where the targets are. They just have to navigate to them. That is easier to do in daylight. A Dawn attack would be best., That way the IAF could fly over Iraq at night.
I would like halting all aid to Egypt and instead place that 3 billion dollars a year in the National Institutes of Health budget. In exchange for out 3 decades of aid, all we got was the arrogant Morsi, Mohammed Atta, and the blind sheikh. Hopefully in the next war, Israel will take out the Aswan dam and Egypt can become the next Somalia
Dr Rubin,two points of your analysis are making me scratch my head : 1)Why Israel should raise the bar ( wait longer in plain words ) to neutralize at least partially the nuclear capacity of Iran ? 2) Egypt would become hostile :that seems obvious politically but also militarily ? I doubt; but then Israel would reoccupy the border at Rafah ( philadelphia corridor ) and would hit back into the Sinai.If Egypt allows the Sinai to become a jumping board for agression there is no excuse not to use droit de poursuite into Sinai.Egypt would also pay its boldness in the USA where the Congress would suspend the 2 B.$ /year grant.Thank you in advance for your answers.
Mr.Rubin learns to breath under water and even mentioned Jews that helped Obama`s reelection.Israel`s possible strike on Iran is discussed with the same frightening courage.
It is nice to see the options of China, India and Russia discussed. Mr. Rubin’s article seemed to bog down in platitudes about how Israel might diminish the destructive tendencies of Obama. Which, in my opinion, is not very productive. Especially since Israel has a wide array of favorable options. I favor employing a combination of them all. Meaning Israel should continue to expand it’s trading, technology exchange, political and military ties to other great nations. I would not exclude Brazil, Germany, etc. The thing is, Israel is not really that vulnerable and it isn’t very needy. They are sitting on vast gas and oil reserves right off the coast. Plus, the Israelis lead the world in high tech in several important areas. So, the Russians and every other country mentioned would be more than happy to help Israel drill, produce and protect that fuel and would love to share that technology. Since the Russians will soon lose their only Mediterranean port in Syria, they would kill for access to the better Israeli ports. Can you picture any Arab country attacking an Israel with several Russian (Chinese, Indian) warships parked in the harbor with their several battalions of support troops and engineers? Not gonna happen. Israel can play China against India and Russia against them both. Meanwhile keeping Germany and Brazil in the wings to check them all. Turkey of course, must also be considered. Now, since the Turks are heavily invested in the gas and oil pipelines from the Caucasus, and points east and south, they will fit nicely into the new Med gas and oil business. Pipelines through the Balkans and Southern Europe would transit Turkish controlled turf and they would make a few pretty shekels. Any nation choosing to obstruct the transportation of fuel would soon find out how cold and lonely it can get. Under any pragmatic scenario the Israelis choose to put together, the U.S. quickly becomes irrelevant. With Syria broken and fragmented, Egypt will be alone among the Arab states able to cross swords with Israel. But, since they have so many other problems, it’s unlikely to happen. Plus, the generals in Egypt know better. Just as the Saudis have played the great powers against each other and used them to check their regional enemies, Israel will soon be doing the same. As for the displaced and misnamed Palestinians, they can go back to their countries of origin. Kind of like how the Christians and Muslims were exchanged between Greece and Turkey way back when. More complicated of course, but not impossible. With diplomatic support, money and time, some can go to the newly configured sections of Syria, some to Lebanon, Egypt, etc. None of this will be easy and it will take some time, but a shift away from America is what Israel can and should do.
As long as the putz doesn’t find a way to canccel electioms his goose is cooked. But we get the corrupt GOP leadership for four years. We got a long row to hoe before Israel can count on the USA.
It really is a shame how little we do for them, esp. when they do so very much for us (if only I could think of some examples!) What do you suggest Gary? Perhaps we could sell Alaska back to the Russians and give Israel the proceeds?
Talk about a War on Women. Pity the poor women in these Islamist states. THey will not see freedom again in their lifetimes.
Too bad Obama is not vindictive. If I were Obama, I would make sure Israel as well as Netanyahu paid a price for their warmongering and obstacles to peace. No more Security Council vetos to protect these spoilt brats.
I’m sure Israel lives in fear of the UN sending them a nasty letter. Who exactly is going to bell the cat? The ONLY military power on earth that can defeat Israel is the USA and that isn’t going to happen. No other nation or combination of nations has the reach AND strength to conquer Israel. The Arabs might think they can be they would be as wrong this time as the last 4 times. As a point of fact, the distance between Israel and Arabic military power is increasing, not decreasing.
Your Point #2 is the ONLY point.
I am not sure you are permitted to be honest in this discussion but I will do my due diligence and repeat what everyone is saying ad infinitum.
First, my religion is Hinduism. It is NOT an Abrahamic religion so I can take a dispassionate view on this.
Second, the central problem, successive US administrations, starting from Eisenhower, has been to solve the (then refugee now) Palestinian Problem. It is true that Palestinian national identify was formed in Dec. 1987. But today it is there. In 2002, there was the Arab Peace Proposal which was not acted on.
Obama’s position is simple. If there is no two-state solution all we have is galloping towards a one-state solution. If there is a one-state solution it is going to be Palestine dominated via the sheer numbers. If you think somehow Palestinians are going to vanish, you are smoking real stuff. Especially, if you think of population transfer to USA (the only country taking in the Palestinians), forget it, the numbers and costs are prohibitive. Also, why should the Palestinians agree? Assuming both US parties agree – if they cannot agree on budget how can they agree of a 6million population transfer.
What Obama is doing is real class!! What he has done is secondary pressure. He got out of the way of the Arab Spring (he actually facilitated it – as an Obama supporter may I claim?). He actually allowed popular government formation and the street (Arab or United States) is for the Palestinians. The indirect pressure from Morsi may have well been a State Department Creation (remember leading from behind!!)
In my opinion, you need a Federated One State solution with a set of Jewish States and a set of Palestinian States with automatic transit rights but no automatic domicile rights for all people. Somewhere between current day China and British India (if these examples mean anything to you)
However that is MY opinion. You are to decide on the final disposition. The Arab Union proposal is on your table. You need to be honest about what you want and what is feasible.
As of now, we are heading towards First one-man one-vote elections of Pan Israel. Do not blame Obama if Hamas wins!
“Obama can be expected to mistreat Netanyahu and to say things that totally misunderstand Israel and insult its interests…….”
Sorry Barry, it is you who misunderstand.
Obama knows exactly what he says and does; he misunderstands nothing.
His actions and words are simply a manifestation of his contempt for Israel, Jews in particular, and in general, white people.
Obama hates Jews, Israel, whites, capitalism, the US Constitution and everything about the USA. All his actions and words are consistent with this worldview.
“As I have tried to explain repeatedly, the Obama administration has the following view: AL-Qaeda is evil and a terrible threat and must be wiped out.”
Barry;
You almost got this correct.
Obama believes that AL-Qaeda was born because of unjust, racist, pro-Israel, anti-Arab, US policy. That is, it is the FAULT OF THE USA that an organization like AL-Qaeda even exists.
This rational – all is the fault of the USA – goes back at least 50 or more years. For example, “Castro was FORCED into the arms of the USSR;” “the USSR was FORCED to do this or that because of US actions;” etc.
The leftist world-view is that the USA is the CAUSE of all the world’s problems and the only solution is the destruction of the USA.
This, is Obama’s view as well.
The biggest danger to Israel is not from Egypt or Iran. It’s from the West’s weak and feckless understanding of the Arabs and Islam.
1. Egypt, despite having a large population, is weak and close to bankruptcy. No one will fund an Eqyptian bailout. Howver, they will use the anti-Israel card as a means of controlling internal dissent. This can work, if and only if Morsi is able to feed the people, a dubious assumption. Rather, think in terms of the War of Attrition that took place in the 1950′s where the Egyptians supported the Palestinia fellahims’ raids in Israel. Outcome: unpleasant nuisance.
2. Iran – they are savvy and know how to play the geopolitcal game having learned the North Korean lesson very well. NK, having nukes thanks to Russian and Chinese complicity, has gotten away with murder; not only figuratively, but literally as well. SK did not retaliate and pressed the US to soft pedal NK provocations of attacking SK ships and shelling an SK island with loss of life for fear off reprisals from NK; support from the US notwithstanding. Seoul is only miles from the DMZ.
Iran will get nukes, push its proxies and maybe the IRG right up to the border with Israel in as many settings as possible, agitate and provoke thru and dare Israel to respond. The West will lean all over Israel not to respond and defend itself even when Israel is taking causalties and its citizens begin to panic. The IRG in Syria, thus not only keeps Syria in the Iranian orbit, it also puts Iran right on Israel’s border. Nukes are not and end in themselves but a means of enhancing Iran’s strategic position for a war of attrition. Then look out for Jordan. Iran is trying to roll up the Arab states, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf on the way towards eradicating Israel.
Iran is playing a long game. The US is the final obstacle. Khameini won’t live forever, but he has a deep bench. That’s the real reason why Iran must be kept far away from getting nukes.
Why did Obama support the overthrow of Mubarak but never supported the green movement? Arrogance does not have to follow logic.
American aid is only 1.5% of Israel’s GDP. Israel will be fine if the alliance ends. In fact, they will finally be able to take the grim but necessary actions they have held off over the years with the American alliance.
“What does Israel do if Obama is re-elected?” Silly question. They kiss their @$$e$ goodbye, of course.
You are too naive about Obama’s second term. It will be worse than you think. And then comes Obama’s third term….
Israel premier would certainly prefer a Republican president. If Obama is reelected, the once intimate relationship between the two nations will likely get much worse in the next few years before getting any better. One wonders what the rich American Jews would do in Washington to improve the situation. (vzc1943)
This question is moot. Israel will take action in October.
If Obama is reelected, Israel should immediately deal with Iran. And I am not talking about little targeted attacks on atomic facilities, either. Israel should go whole hog and launch a preemptive thermonuclear attack on Iran with 50-100 megaton scale warheads. Making a fine example of Iran is exactly what is needed to put some fear into Egypt’s new rulers.
All I read in the original article and comments, is hypothetical with questionable bases. If Obama is re-elected, which has a good chance of happening, nothing will materially change. He may act more aggressively against Israel but its is unlikely that he will risk alienating the rich Jews living in the US. He needs their support to get his way with the US congress. In the long run, the future of Israel hangs on the degree of development and unification among the surrounding Arab/Moslem states. It will take time but the final result for Israel will be either to integrate with the rest of the Middle East or face elimination due to attrition and insecurity. It is unlikely that atomic weapons will play a role in the final scenario. Instead of thinking of war and external alliances, the Israelis should start thinking about how to integrate themselves into the surrounding countries and assimilate. Assimilation was the history-old advice by most Jewish scholars to avoid ‘anti-Semitism’. Perhaps the Israelis of modern day will heed the advice that their ancestors did not.
Egyptian Solution: Give billions of dollars and more U.S. concessions; don’t complain and support us.
Israeli Solution: Give billions of dollars and more U.S. concessions; don’t complain and support us.
You couldn’t have said it better.
“What Does Israel Do if Obama Is Reelected?”
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It’s enough to stop at ‘What Does Israel Do?’ Israel must do what’s necessary for its survival no matter who is President their or in the USA. If it comes to an attack on Iran I hope that Israel can decapitate the Iranian government. That would really shorten the conflict. {My goodness, I just supported beheading – after a fashion. I guess I’m more PC than I realized]
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