BREAKING: Court Dissolves Egyptian Parliament; Army Takes Over; Civil War?
The Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court has just invalidated the parliamentary election there. The parliament, 75 percent of whose members were Islamists, is being dissolved. The military junta has taken over total authority. The presidential election is still scheduled for a few dozen hours from now.
In short, everything is confused and everything is a mess. All calculations are thrown to the wind. What this appears to be is a new military coup. What is the underlying theme? The armed forces concluded that an Islamist takeover was so dangerous for Egypt and for its own interests that it is better to risk civil war, a bloodbath, and tremendous unpopularity than to remain passive and turn over power. I believe this decision was made very reluctantly and not out of some lust for power by the generals. They have decided that they had no choice.
Yes, it is under legal cover, but nobody is going to see it as a group of judges — appointed by former President Hosni Mubarak, remember — looking deep into the law books and coming up with a carefully reasoned decision based on precedent. In theory, this will be seen by every Islamist — whether Salafi or Muslim Brotherhood — and by most of the liberals — who feel closer to the Islamists than to the government — as if the 2011 revolution has just been reversed. In preparation, the army prepared a new regulation allowing itself arrest anyone.
Prediction: massive violence.
Still, there’s something strange going on. So far, the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists have not reacted so strongly. Is it that they were caught unawares, or want to keep quiet because they think they’ll win the presidential election, or maybe there will be some kind of deal in which the Muslim Brotherhood backs down, most of the parliamentary members will be allowed to stay on, and the military will retain a lot of political power? Everything is up in the air? So far the Brotherhood doesn’t seem so upset by the decision. Why is that?
With typical journalistic “neutrality,” CNN’s Ben Wedeman reported from Cairo: “Those who don’t want to see a return to the oppression of the past … are very unhappy with this ruling.” What about the people who don’t want a radical Islamist regime and a Sharia state to become the oppression of the future?
Still, the fact that the court ruled that “establishment” candidate Ahmad Shafiq can run for president will further a perception that this is a conspiracy to return to the pre-revolutionary situation.
I’m not saying that the armed forces told the justices to make such a ruling. But clearly by backing it up the generals are declaring their willingness to confront the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists rather than let them take power. Is there a precedent for this? You bet there is:
Algeria.
In 1991 the Islamic Salvation Front was on the verge of gaining victory. Before the second round of voting could be held, the army staged a coup to stop the election. The resulting war lasted more than a decade — in some respects, it’s still continuing today. Cost in lives? About 150,000 — 200,000 in a country whose population was about one-third that of contemporary Egypt. You do the math.
That doesn’t mean Egypt will be the same, but this is something to be taken seriously. Consider:
– The decision virtually wipes out the much-vaunted “Arab Spring” and all the claims that a basic transition was being made in Arab societies. On al-Jazira, for example, the reporters were visibly in a state of shock.
– This event poses a huge problem for the Obama administration — and I’ll bet it caught them by surprise. Does the U.S. government condemn the military and put sanctions on it, demanding that the Muslim Brotherhood be put into power? There is no easy solution. But we are likely to have the strange situation of an American president fighting to put into power an anti-American, anti-Christian, anti-Semitic political force that is opposed to all U.S. interests, because — after all — they did win the election. Once again, Arab leaders have rebelled against Obama’s–and I don’t say this lightly–pro-Islamist policy.
In a first reaction a State Department spokesperson said:
“We want to see the Egyptian people have what they fought for, which is a free, fair, democratic, transparent system of government – governance that represents the will of the people, a parliament so elected, a president so elected.”
That’s predictable and “nice” but it isn’t a policy, much less a strategy, and avoids all of the real issues involved. For example, is the administration going to rush aid to an Egyptian military junta now?
– What if Shafiq wins the presidency? Will the armed forces line up behind him, and put us back in 1952 when the military created a dictatorship and suppressed the Muslim Brotherhood? In other words, the entire “Arab Spring” would have been a temporary detour, and things will return to the path they would have taken if there had been no revolution and an ailing Mubarak was simply replaced in 2011 by the establishment’s choice for president.
– And what if the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate wins the presidency? Is the military really going to let him rule in any meaningful sense? No. But perhaps the Muslim Brotherhood leaders remember what the army did to their predecessors back in the 1950s and 1960s. Might they back down? ”I don’t consider this a military coup,” said Brotherhood presidential candidate Muhammad al-Mursi. ”I love the military forces.” Is this fear of the military or the belief he can make a deal with it?
[Pure speculation here but I wonder if the military’s actions were influenced by secret estimates that a Brotherhood president was about to be elected, too. And how will this event affect a presidential election? On one hand, there might be a reaction against the army leading to a victory for the Brotherhood. On the other hand, though, people might want to be on the winning side and put restored order over the promise of more freedom (albeit, “freedom” within an Islamist regime, which might not look so ideal to a good proportion of Egyptians).
–If there’s no parliament then there’s nobody to write a Constitution. So parliamentary elections and the writing of a new Constitution are put off by–at the barest minimum–six months and probably for much longer.
plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
“Does the U.S. government condemn the military and put sanctions on it, demanding that the Muslim Brotherhood be put into power? There is no easy solution. But we are likely to have the strange situation of an American president fighting to put into power an anti-American, anti-Christian, anti-Semitic political force that is opposed to all U.S. interests, because — after all — they did win the election.”
If we had any other president, I think it would be a very difficult decision. But given that our President is Barrack Hussein Obama, I doubt there will even be much thought about the matter. Obama and his minions will see it as essential for “the will of the people” to prevail and the Egyptian Supreme Court decision to be repudiated, consequences for Egypt, Israel, and the Middle East be damned.
Obama threw Mubarak under the proverbial bus so Obama’s prestige would be undermined if the military assumed power again. The much-touted Arab Spring would be jeopardized too, further undermining Obama. I can’t see him going along with that just five months from the election.
If you think the American people will support a U.S. led war with Egypt, think again. “One man, one vote, one so what” is getting to be a tradition in the Middle East. My guess is that we should be dusting off the “Emergency Evacuation” plan for Egypt.
Stange?
Obama has nothing to do with this; never did.
Gee, when a military coup is the less bad option, you know things are messed up.
You know, I was thinking just that.
Then your view of democracy really amounts to the proverbial benevolent dictator. Why not just have Batman rule? He’s a good guy? He’s a vigilante but his sense of morality is excellent.
Muslim Brotherhood rule would be a non-benevolent dictatorship.There are no true democrats in this play, except for the tiny, powerless liberal minority.
People in parliament don’t rule.
Could you be less coherant? WHAT democracy? Is democracy what you want for Egypt? Mob-rule?
Or do you mean republicanism, like we have in the United States? Do you even know what you mean? Maybe Batman should answer for you.
Of course, in Algeria, the Salvation Front declared before the election that if they won, there would be no more elections in the country, since with a sharia-islamic state they intended to set up, there would be no need. Is it surprising, then that the military took control?
Does it really matter? The power struggle will decide whether they are oppressed by the military or the Jihadists. In fact they probably should hope the military wins. Turkey did better under Ataturk and the occasional coups that came later than Iran did under the Theocracy.
Doesn’t this [the Egyptian Army marking its turf and re-asserting control over the Islamo-fascists] just put us back where we were before Soetoro went all “Arab Spring” on the region?
Except, you know, that Mubarak is in prison and no one in Egypt’s military has any reason to trust the US, and owes us no favors of any sort?
You did a heckuva job, Barry.
Just to clarify, I was sarcastically referring to Barry Soetoro in the last line of my previous post, not the author of this article.
I am npt that sure Obama blundered. I think he knew was he was doing. He knew it would be do no good for America and the West.
Sir,
Do you mean there is a non-radical Islamic State? Also, does that imply there is a non-radical Muhmmad?
Did Obama give the go-ahead for this? Or maybe some other elements of the government? Maybe a signal from Romney? Maybe just simple self-preservation of the generals. In any case, this is the best news for Egypt and Egyptians since Obama bungled the “Arab Spring”, whatever the hell that was. Maybe, just maybe the MB can be crushed, stability returns along with the tourists and then Egypt can afford to get some food. Slight chance but better than the certain fate the MB would bring.
Well, isn’t this a revolting development? (Anyone that gets that reference from Otto Riley is older than dirt!
)
I’m not sure what to think about this one. The Army is at least a bit more toward the secular side and seemed to be trying to hold a fair election. If the Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood did win the elections then they would probably be the last ones held in Egypt. At least in this way there is still hope for the people that want a free, secular nation. If the more secular parties get their acts together and figure out just what they want to stand for and if the Army does decide to have a do-over instead of a military junta then maybe there is hope.
I’m old enough(65) to remember that the line was, “What a revolting development this turned out to be!”
Who is Otto Riley? Wasn’t William Bendix’s character named Chester A.?
Hope? In the middle east? Remember the parable of the frog and the scorpion.
“Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.”
- John Adams
Do we really believe that democracy is some kind of magic formulation that transforms societies and the people in them?
I don’t. We in the USA are having a hard enough time maintaining our nation. I do not for a moment believe the Egyptians are capable of self government.
Why pretend?
An excellent example. . . of how lucky we are the Adams didn’t get to write it by himself, complete BS. The Constitution, as written, does just fine without middle eastern mythology, too bad the rest of the world cant’ say the same.
Civil War? Hopefully, another Syria is good for the world, let the 10th century muslims pigs butcher each other, Allah Akbar. Hopefully the West doesn’t interrupt when they’re making a long awaited and much needed mistake. Leave them alone to do what the West doesn’t have the stomach to do.
Indeed. Let’s hope the annihilate one another.
Well, the Sunnis and Shiites seem to hate each other as much as they hate everyone else. (“I’m OK, you’re an infidel. Die, infidel!”) Left to their own devices, they might indeed self-destruct. If a viable alternative to crude oil as an energy source is ever developed or discovered, the self-destruction will happen faster because they will lose all the petrodollars they have historically used to fund their nefarious deeds around the world.
All the more reason to get our troops the hell out of that quagmire. Gen. MacArthur warned against waging a land war in Asia — a warning that regrettably went unheeded in Vietnam. A land war in the Mideast would be worse by orders of magnitude.
So much for the “arab spring.” Actually, I’m kind of happy it happened. The Army seems to be the only voice of reason in Egypt when it comes to running a government. The only other option would be to let the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists take over and then you would never have another election in Egypt ever again. One man, one vote, one time. Because you just know that if the Islamists take over in Egypt, it will turn into another Iran. Sure, Iran has “elections,” and we all see how open, honest, and fair those are. No, in a country that has virtually no history of real democracy, a military dictatorship is about the best you could hope for. It’s either that or another mullah. I’m sure Hillary Clinton and Obama are “loving” this. What idiots for supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists in the first place. Shows you how much they know about politics in Egypt.
I told you so.
Everyone kept wondering about the elections, and I said it was going to be the military who decided who was in charge of Egypt next, just as it has been a military force that has decided for the past 2 millennia.
The only possible thing that could alter that would be if an outside military chose to install a new government.
So now the shoe has dropped, the parliament is tossed, and the military’s previous choice for prime minister is greenlighted to be the next president.
Europe is going bust, Obama is up for re-election and, as Richard Fernandez pointed out yesterday, the bulk of U.S. troops are stuck in Afghanistan, dependent upon Russian travel permission to get out.
Maybe the Egyptian Army figured this is a good time not to give a damn about what anybody else thinks because nobody is inclined, or in a position, to do anything about it.
No – the military doesn’t trust the Islamists not to threaten its interests and privileges. Now that the establishment has found a candidate it can live with, it can dispense with the convenient facade of “democracy,” which never had much meaning in the Arab World.
Look for things to degenerate into complete chaos.
Which raises the question how would you tell complete chaos from normal in the new Middle East?
Five years ago Egyptian diplomats in Washington openly told those of us demonstrating for a democratic Egypt that they maintained relations with the Muslim Brotherhood – effectively telling us that if we succeeded in our efforts to oust the corrupt Mubarak regime they, the ruling class, would ally with the Islamists rather than liberal democrats. True to their word, when the Revolution did occur that’s exactly what happened.
Today’s Constitutional Court decision appears to either break this alliance OR cement it to the exclusion of all democratic impulses, other than electing a president. Perhaps this was a long-standing “Plan B”?
I put my finger on the democrats’ error five years ago: they thought they could work within the system, as opposed to building a new one with its own legitimacy. They could not make that jump then; in 2011 they couldn’t even organize (the few who were motivated to do so) election campaigns to expand their grass-roots support.
Only after the failure of the parliamentary elections did they accept a new approach was needed – one focused on rights, not power, but even then they wouldn’t consider a full break.
A civil war in Egypt is the best thing that we could hope for.
I find I can bear the misfortunes of Salafists with remarkable equanimity. Civil war in Egypt would take a lot of the pressure off Israel: if the army is butchering Islamofascists and the Islamofascists are butchering everybody else, there’ll be no time for foreign adventures. Instability in the Middle East – as long as it is contained and we do not get involved except to cluck disapprovingly when a particularly revolting massacre occurs – is good for us (q.v. Syria).
A civil war would inevitably spill over into Israel. As a cohesive national military force however, Egypt is incapable of attacking Israel for a wide variety of reasons. Being on the other side of a canal from the enemy and with short supply lines in 1973 is quite a different thing from infantry and tank divisions crossing the open Sinai. However rebels would for sure be pressed into the Sinai and in small groups – difficult to see. Israel might be forced to commit to cross border operations.
Small-scale counter-insurgency is something the Israelis are very good at. A few ragtag troublemakers in the Sinai do not constitute a great danger. The ructions in Syria thus far seem to be fairly well-contained. The self-immolation of the most populous Arab nation can only reduce the existential threat to Israel.
I guess the new United States of Arabia with its capital in Jerusalem will have to wait. If the Egyptian rulers can stall until early next year, there’s a 50-50 chance of an accommodating policy change coming out of DC. If not, a weaker and more isolationist West is not going to interfere too much in their internal affairs anyway.
That’s predictable and “nice” but it isn’t a policy, much less a strategy, and avoids all of the real issues involved.
You just nicely summed up the long sustained policies of all Judeo-Christian infidel countries towards Moslems. They’re always bitterly complaining about this or that; we’re always apologizing and giving them taxpayer money. The Infidels have treated and still treat the poor Moslems *so* badly that they have no choice but to threaten us with deadly violence, and they deliver on the threats with regular frequency.
This situation is now offically outta control: even after Prez Barck Hussein’s famous Apology Speech at the ol’ U of Cairo, the Egypto-Moslem still can’t win for losing.
Allah has already sanctioned for you the dissolution of your vows.”
- verse 66:2 of the Holy Ko-Ran
Some Islamic tenets cut both ways. The Arab Spring has sprung the spectacle of one group of Moslems, realists, screwing another group of Moslems. Kemal Ataturk was like the Generals are now: he knew that Islam is a great and wonderful thing, but the contents of the scricptures and history are *so* bad that implementing full Sharia, or Sharia fully, could only lead to excessive misery for everybody. That’s why ol’ Kemal would regularly put armed soldiers in the Turkish mosques on Friday, to let it be known that Imams who got carried away with the bullsheet from the Ko-Ran and Hah-Deaths would be, well, put to death. In fact he nailed a few.
I say go Generals, save Egypt from the Egyptians, who are Moslems, except for the terrified and running Copts, who are understandly quite fearful after the church conflagsrations, charred corpses and further death threats.
Maybe the Copts are happy about the Generals taking back over, too. But I wouldn’t be so sure, careful what you wish for. They might sacrifice the Copts at the fiery altar of Mo-Bro-Hood, the guys Prez Barack insisted be allowed to attend the Cairo speech a few years ago, and were thus legitimized at an international level.
Obvously you haven’t read what Ataturk says in the “Nutuk” (the trabnscription of a 36 hours long autobiographical speech of Kemal) about Islam and Muhammad. He despised both and never says anything about Islam was great and wonderful. He considred the Turkish chieftains who first converted to Islam as traitors. Once he became chief of state reducing/eliminating anything islamic/arab from Turkissh society was a constant aim of his actions.
-Break ties with muslima nations and have Turkey join what he calls “the concert of civilized nations”.
-Western-like name system. No longer islamic system of X son of Y. but names and surnames.
-Latin alpahabet: he gave one week to shift to the new alphabet (by the way use of Arabic alphabet where vowels are not written is utterly stupid for vowel-rich language like Turkish. In fact for about anything but Arabic).
-Swiss legal system.
-Ban of wearinng turbans, fez, veils or any other “islamic” clothing.
I don’t doubt that had he lived longer and had his position been stronger he would have gone a lot frather on unislamizing Turkey since he truly ghated and despised Islam. But he died relatively young.
Some in Israel must be heaving a sigh of relief. A Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt, along with surging Islamism in Turkey, was a far greater threat than Syria.
However, the Israelis better keep their powder dry. The situation has turned fraught. A military-Brotherhood deal in Egypt is not any better. An Army in cahoots with jihadists is not new in Muslim lands. Look at Pakistan or Iran. The “Flotilla” raid on Gaza, mounted by Turkish jihadists, had the full blessing of Erdogan.
But, all the same, Obama comes across as a complete foreign policy amateur. Despite three years as POTUS, he has learned next to nothing.
Israel is becoming the equivalent of Cold War West Berlin…..an Island surrounded by Islam, with the Mediterranean coast becoming the equivalent of the Autobahn and sealed trains crossing Soviet controlled territory…..an airlift from Sicily or Greece being a possibility. Patrolled sea lanes through the Mediterranean Sea.
I don’t know why it seems that we’ve forgotten Cold war analogies. The Soviet-Red Chinese Containment covered a vastly greater area. No American massed troops assembled, excepting in West Germany and Japan….who welcomed the payrolls.
Whatever happens folks, other than preparing to evacuate all United States Citizens out of Egypt starting at dawn tomorrow, we Americans should absolutely keep our hands out of that snarling cauldron of Islamic intrigue and opacity. We simply can not make a difference. Repeat that….
Remember, the Egyptians have five thousand years’ experience with sharpened knives and poison vials, and smiling faces. It is an absurd conceit of our State Department to think we can diplomatically out manouver such wiles, polished to a smooth faux sheen by arriviste Islam.
US cash spigots should be closed after the last helicopter lifts off from our Embassy roof……..the same for Syria. Our Lebanese and Jordanian Embassies should prepare for civil wars between these same bristling Islamic sects within their borders.
Then, let that wide seething nest of Islamist sects butcher each other.
There’s absolutely nothing we can do. Why haven’t we learned and absorbed the brutal lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan?
Saudi oil?…….remember they need our cash as much as we want their oil. Iran’s nuclear threat?….we should strike soonest.
A Green Curtain has descended around all of Islam.
(…with apologies to Winston Churchill….who was half-American….always remember.)
I had a Big Mac and fries delivered with only one casualty – a milk shake wasn’t very cold.
Tomorrow I shall go to Tahrir Square and denounce the capitalist pigs at Hardee’s.
If I haven’t misunderstood your cryptic comment, entirely possible in my habitual literal mindedness, I’d look forward to what that Hardee’s Manager thinks candidly about the long term prospects for his franchise in Islamic Brotherhood Egypt. Oh, the camaraderie of hitting our foreheads in unison upon the gravelly precincts of sacred, historic, misty-halcyon Tahrir!…our rear ends prominently upended, emitting vapours…..ahhhh, the bliss.
Trustworthy cash-money for purchasing his future ‘fries will have to come from a reliable steady source. “Circulatory”, as in cash flow, is no pun.
Hardee’s Head Office (is it here in the USA?) may well wonder where the potatoes will come from, reliably scheduled deliveries of fresh cooking oil, customers with cash.
If you’re in Egypt right now, where is your main bank account? [...that's personal and none of my business, I don't expect any reply, but it is the business of the Islamic theoreticians over across at their Treasury....but you'll get my drift...]
The weathered-worn Cheshire Sphinx still crouching out there amongst those rocky dunes is still smirking…….man, oh man…..if only it world issue forth some oracular portent such as, “Behold!….rumble….rumble….rumble….We have seen all this before!……rumble, rumble, rumble…..Avoid being long on pork bellies…..”
Hmmmm, looks like some military folks in Egypt have been keeping tabs on the recent anti – Obama preference cascade shaping up over here. Still a dice roll in both areas, though lots of “slings and arrows ” could be in operation before Nov. 6 . Before any in Egypt ponder a revenge or distraction war, someone should blanket their media with photos of, and let them count the wires draped over, the IDF tank from one of the previous attempts. Kissinger won’t be available to save them this time. What is the status of present Egyptian food / currency reserves ? GBUSA
For civilized nations, the best form of government in a Moslem country is a dictatorship. It’s either that, or a Sharia government, which is much, much more dangerous to us. History has consistently proven this axiom, and this will not change.
Civil war in Egypt?
That’s the best news I’ve heard in months, if not years.
It would truly be a miracle from G-d if the most populous and potentially dangerous state to Israel in the ME (other than Iran) were to destroy itself (like Syria is presently doing) and save Israel the trouble of having to confront a state run by Islamist loonies bent on jihad.
Get on the stick, boys. Time’s a’wastin’!
yay – whoops, momentarily unshrugged on this good news. sorry.
A sense of relief, to be sure. No doubt when and if the Salafists and masses go into the streets and the army guns them down, the Left will accuse and America.
I literally have no opinion about the likelihood of mass civilian casualties in such a scenario. It will not be enjoyable to watch, but it won’t be the end of the world if it happens that way.
Larry,
Being in Israel, you should have an opinion on this. Let Egypt, like Syria, get involved in a bloody civil war that lasts for decades, and leaves them too bloodied, exhausted and beaten to even THINK about war with Israel.
Try to think of it as “Evolution in Action”…
The militaries of the Middle East all have some, if tenuous, connections to the British military. And, so, corrupt as they are, remain the only institutions that have some degree of meritocracy. Corruption being a matter of degree. That’s why this so-called Arab Spring was anything but. The electoral success of the Muslim Brotherhood stands as evidence. Indeed, in Egypt, since the overthrow of King Farouk, every leader has come from the ranks of the military–yes, even Sadat.
So, why is this all so surprising. Just because Mubarak hung it up, the military was going to throw in the towel? Then, hand the keys over to the Muslim Brotherhood to lead some disastrous jihad against, say, Israel? Not a chance. The Egyptian Army aren’t a bunch of Thomas Jeffersons, but they’re the only party that has some modicum of sanity in that corner of the world.
You know what that’s cool I didn’t wanna talk to you anyways!
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