Turkey To Call for NATO Intervention Against Syria?
NATO ought not exist at all, and if it must exist, surely Turkey’s Islamist government — friend of Iran, financial backer of the Hamas terrorist organization, facilitator of operations against Israel — has no business being in it. Now, Turkey appears poised to exploit its NATO membership to force the Western intervention in Syria that the Muslim Brotherhood and allied Islamists have been calling for.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a Sunni Islamic supremacist with longstanding ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, the world’s most influential Sunni supremacist organization. The Brotherhood is leading the mujahideen (called the “opposition” or the “rebels” by the mainstream media) that seeks to oust the Assad regime in Syria — dominated by the Alawites, a minority Shiite sect. Unsurprisingly, then, Turkey’s government has taken a very active role in abetting the Brotherhood’s operations against the Syrian regime, which have also been joined by al-Qaeda and other Sunni militants.
On Friday, a Turkish air force jet entered Syrian air space, and Assad regime forces shot it down. Turkey claims the jet “mistakenly” cruised over Syria, and that, by the time it was taken down, it was in international air space over the Mediterranean. One need carry no brief for Assad to conclude that, given the interventionist drum-beat for no-fly zones and direct military and logistical aid to the “opposition,” Syria rationally took the presence of a Turkish military aircraft in its air space as a provocation. Turkey insists it was not “spying” — that this was just an accident to which Syria overreacted. That would be a good argument if the regime were not under siege and if the Syrian and Turkish governments had not been exchanging hostile words (mostly, threats from Erdogan) for months. That, of course, is not the case.
The Obama administration, from its first days, has cozied up to the Muslim Brotherhood — both Brotherhood branches in the Middle East, and Brotherhood satellite organizations in the U.S., such as CAIR and the Islamic Society of North America. Obama has also been quietly supporting the Syrian mujahideen: coordinating with repressive Islamist governments in Turkey and Saudi Arabia to arm and train them, and reportedly dispatching the CIA to facilitate this effort. But it has thus far resisted calls for more overt participation — calls by pro-Brotherhood progressives in both parties for something along the lines of what Obama did in Libya, meaning: without congressional approval and toward the end of empowering virulently anti-Western Islamists.
There is no U.S. national security interest in Syrian intervention: both the savage regime of Assad (whom the Obama administration saw as a “reformer” until about five minutes ago) and the Syrian mujahideen’s Sunni supremacists are enemies of the West and of our ally, Israel. It is in our interests that both be weakened, which is best achieved by butting out while they slug it out between themselves. Since there is no good outcome for us, it makes no sense to jump in on the side of one set of America’s enemies, making them stronger.
Still, there is little doubt that Obama — who regards Erdogan as his best friend and strategic partner in the region — is inclined to jump in on the Brotherhood’s side. He would have done so already if the November election were not looming. In light, however, of the democracy-promotion debacles in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, which have forged the creation of sharia regimes that persecute religious minorities and reject Western democracy, Americans are not buying democracy-promotion as a rationale for being dragged into yet more internecine Islamic conflict.
Nor are Americans convinced by the interventionists’ best argument: Syria is the cat’s paw of Iran, our implacable enemy, and therefore Assad’s overthrow, which would be a bitter pill for the mullahs, is a compelling U.S. interest. Yes, Iran is a huge problem, but we should then deal with Iran directly — not in a proxy war that elevates the Muslim Brotherhood, whose ascendancy in neighboring Egypt is already destabilizing the Sinai and profoundly threatening Israel. Consequently, if Syrian intervention is to be sold to the public — I won’t say “sold to Congress,” because Obama and the interventionists are unconcerned about such trivial constitutional details — the administration will have to come up with another excuse.
“Turkey’s Islamist government — friend of Iran”
I’d say that’s questionable, give that they are backing opposite sides in Syria and apparently competing in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Mr. McCarthy – You may want to consider this analysis arguing that KSA, Turkey and Iran are all competing from dominance (“caliphate”) in the Muslim world (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-clash-of-the-caliphates-understanding-the-real-war-of-ideas).
Thanks so much for this. I don’t mean “friend”in the “buddy-buddy” sense but friend as in “with us or against us.” Turkey is a rival of Iran in the sense that they both have hegemonic ambitions. But their mutual abhorrence of the West (despite Turkey’s pretensions to the contrary for Euro-American consumption) is greater than their wariness about each other. Turkey has gone out of its way to run interference for Iran’s nuclear program and treat the despicable Ahmadinejad as a respectable leader on the world stage. That is pretty friendly. But note that the Iranian regime does not have a Sunni opposition to speak of. Erdogan had the same kind of friendship with Assad as he does with Iran, but as soon as an opening emerged for the Muslim Brotherhood to move in on Iran with Erdogan’s brand of Sunni supremacism, Erdogan turned on Assad. I agree he would turn on the mullahs, too, in the right circumstances — say, a Saudi-Iranian war in which he thought it likely the West would intervene on the Saudi side. And note that Turkey happily took on Hamas’s sponsorship, replacing Iran, once the Syrian conflict induced Hamas to bolt from the safe-haven Assad and Iran had been providing for years. Erdogan is an ambitious opportunist, but for now, he sees good relations with Iran as in his interest.
Thank you for your reply. Your clarification gives a good summary of the puzzling events in recent Turkey/Iran relations.
I,of course agree, that states don’t have “buddies (as de Gaulle observed, states are “cold monsters”)”, although there can be both affection and enmity between peoples.
With respect to Iran and Turkey, I’m not sure I agree with you that “their mutual abhorrence of the West (despite Turkey’s pretensions to the contrary for Euro-American consumption) is greater than their wariness about each other”. I’d say the jury is out.
I acknowledge your points about Turkish shielding of the Iranian nuclear program and legitimization of Iran. But that was about a year ago. Since that time there has been the competition over Syria and Iraq as well as the Turks taking over sponsorship of Hamas and the Iranians trying to compensate by backing PIJ. There is also the legacy of competition between the Ottomans and Persians.
I’d say that both Iran and the current Turkish government are motivated in equal parts by radical Islamic ideology, state interest and (as “Spengler” has discussed in PJM) demographic panic.
An update: I just heard on German tv that the Turkish attempt to stir NATO will get no where. Why? High morality? Heck no!. The announcer looked gleefully ironic as he said. “Kein Geld”, i.e. “no money”. If Attila and his hordes would, with modern equipment, attack Europe again the European defenders would warn the attacker so: Conquer us and you have pay for our welfare. We have no money! Exaggerated, I know. But then there is the high EU court that ruled recently the following: If someone is taking his sacrosanct 6 weeks paid vacation and gets sick, well the sufferer must be given more vacation time. In the sense of “ethos” (= character structure), we have here the European reason for the current crisis. They all want there “welfare” benefits, pardon, “human rights” and do not work enough to pay for them. Even with the dampening effects of the would-be-European, Obama, America will have a better and quicker economic recovery because Americans want to work (i.e., unless Obama’s monetary give away has created the “serf” mentality of Europe in the US of A.)
Just an added note on a note: If an American wants to see where the Germans turn into a dog-eat-dog mentality, come visit with me the “Social Bureau” where the welfare is doled out. I have helped foreigns who speak little German to come through that Kafka-esque montrosity. I have been banned because I supposedly insulted the bureaucrats. What I did was to say that the one or the other worker had made a mistake. That is an insult! Once I was with a Philippine woman who spoke only primitive German. The female bureacrat blasted out the rules so fast that I could not catch them, and I was suppose to translate. The offended person, after I had asked for a slower communication, blurted out at me. “I am obligated to communicate the rules. That is all. The supplicant is obliged to understand them”. Of course, this is so even is the supplicant does not understand German. When one enters the zone of rules for business formation, what a nightmare. I am just full of such stories. I aggrevate Germans when I tell them that I might become a German citizen and live off their money. It can be surprising how quick the capitalistic mentality takes hold of the sucker who has to pay.
I think that Turkey is more likely to call for NATO intervention against Israel rather than Syria over the downed plane. Yes, Syria downed it, but Turkey hates Israel more
I’m not sure if Herr Erdogan is trying to pull a Hitler Reichstag fire or an LBJ Gulf of Tonkin. Maybe some hybrid. In any case Mohammedian Turkey should be expelled from NATO. We have lost enough Blood and Treasure for muslims in Iraq and Afcrapistan. I think it’s time we got a brain and a clue.
A thought from an American living some 30+ years in Germany. Polls have shown a disitnctly non-combative feeling in the German population–almost pacificism in tone. Only mass slaughter (e.g. in Bosnia) could awaken the Germanic lust for combat in political circles. Lefists such as the Green Foreign Minister Fischer felt obligated by his conscience to commit German military to the problem. Such a situation has not repeated itself, certainly not in Irak. Only against stong resistance is there a small contingent of German soldiers in Afganistan with a very limited mandate. Germany refused to participate in the Lybian venture, even to allow its soldiers to fly in AWAC planes. I would predict very strong resistance to any actual military participation by Germany via NATO against Syria, specially as Erdogan is not véry popular with non-Turkish Germans–he is arrogant and insults Germany. My prediction would be that an active decision by NATO, even with American participation (carrying the most weight of military action), to aid Turkey militarily against Syria would break NATO asunder. In the end, the “protection” of the threatened in Syria would be a US/Turkey/Saudi, viz. Sunni affair with the rest of NATO nations refusing participation. I say, let Erdogan push matters. But why?
NATO has no reason to be since the collapse of the Soviet Union. America pays, I believe, about 75% of the costs. In the meantime European nations trim their military for more welfare spending. My suggestion: Let NATO dissolve. After that the Europeans themselves should form their own transnational milatary alliance, the EU Alliance. Then, and only then, should the USA strike some sort of accord with the EU Alliance, an accord where the EU payes its “fair share”, i.e., way beyond 50%. The possible cooperation goals should be spelled out and limited in kind. If France wants “to save” some Arab population again, France should convince the EU Alliance to take action. This activity should not automatically trigger USA participation.
If, on the other hand, Erdogan cons the USA into militarily cooperating with Sunni tribes (that call themselves nations) on NATO grounds, think about what Erdogan said about the Israel’s resistance to the flotilla, namely, that such action by Israel was grounds for war. Maybe, just maybe, the Semantha Power’s “Responsiblity-to-protect” doctrine might bring the USA into a position that it sees itself obliged to “protect” Turkey against Israel. If we do it against Syria, why not against Israel? Having listened to Power I do not think this bit of fantasy is totally out of the ball park. But can Obama, experienced with going around Congress and the apparent acceptance by the American populace of Lybia, resist the call for “brotherly love” with Erdogan?
A final question: Was Obama’s Islam sunni? In Klein’s “The Amateur”, Rev. Wright talks about conversting Obama from Islam to Christianity. What does the Husein in BO’s name portend or what did it imply?
I was serving in the Navy during the Cold War and worked with a lot of NATO classified publications. We had our security procedures with locked filing cabinets and all, but we used to joke about how anything with a NATO stamp on it was sure to already be in some Soviet filing cabinet. Nowadays with our principle enemy being Islamists who are welcomed into NATO, what’s the point of even having locked filing cabinets?
I would not give the Turks the time of day, let alone any military help with Syria. Always remember that when we needed Turkey’s help in invading Iraq back in 2003, Turkey gave us the finger and told us to get lost. It made our job much, much, harder invading Iraq and it allowed the actual fighting to drag out much longer. Ever since then, the Turks have had nothing but bad things to say about the United States and have tried their best to ally themselves with other Islamists in the area, not really the actions of a pro-Western friend.
NATO is really an organization who’s time has gone, unless of course Russia decides to flex its military muscle over Europe again. But that looks like a long shot given the poor state of the Russian military these days (not to mention its shrinking size). So if there is no major threat from Russia, why do we still have NATO? Beats me, especially considering how much it costs. And for NATO to be involved in places like Libya was also shameful, showing how strange it is for a “defensive” organization like NATO to take offensive actions against a country like Libya which was absolutely no threat to either us or NATO. Now Turkey is going to try and do the same thing, dragging us into a war we have no business being in. The only bad thing about the Syrian civil war is that there can be only one loser. Let them slaughter each other like they’ve been doing for centuries. Having fewer jihadists around will just make it easier to defend our only real ally in the region, which is Israel.
Note that this was in the context of our having invoked Article 5 of the NATO charter after 9/11.
You know, Lina, I was waiting for somebody to bring that up. It brings up the larger issue of why NATO was involved in Afghanistan AT ALL. The United States was the one attacked on 9/11, NOT Paris or London. Last time I checked, Kabul was not part of Russia, so there wasn’t any real reason for NATO to get involved at all. In fact, having NATO as part of the Afghan operation initially did nothing but slow down the United States militarily. Several of the NATO nations have strict rules of engagement on what they can and cannot do. For examples, the Germans didn’t want to engage in combat operations and the French primarily wanted to use their people as military trainers, not as combat troops. Some of the smaller NATO countries kicked in a few troops, but not nearly enough to make any difference on the battlefield. Only countries like Great Britain and Canada had major roles in combat operations in Afghanistan. But even these troops were poorly supplied by their own countries, placing a greater logistical burden on the United States to assist in supplying them.
Which brings up a far larger point. Why do we have this fetish for always putting together some sort of “coalition” whenever we have to fight anybody? 9/11 was a direct assault on the United States, NOT NATO. Had we gone into Afghanistan with massive force and a very large number of troops, odds are that we not only would have won the war sooner, but we probably would have killed bin Laden there as well. Also, had we unleashed our military to kill, yes KILL, and not capture numbers of Taliban to be placed in limbo at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, then the Afghan people probably would have supported us sooner, seeing that the Taliban was a beaten force and incapable of further retribution.
But no, we had to go on both Bush’s and Obama’s nation-building ride and all that did was give the Taliban time to re-group and try to take over Afghanistan once again. Over 100 years ago British General Lord Roberts of Kandahar fought a successful war in Afghanistan using only British troops. He won it by using massive force and crushing his military opposition. He had no intention of “nation-building” in Afghanistan. His only mission was to crush his enemy so badly that they would be incapable of waging another war. And he succeeded.
When you have one nation fighting on its own, you have the flexibility of fighting that war on your terms. But when you’re part of a coalition, everybody seems to have their own ideas on not only how to wage the war, but what victory looks like to them. In short, sometimes vast coalitions simply are NOT the answer. But quick and crushing military operations with little regard for fighting a war on the enemy’s terms usually allows a major power to win. We did not need NATO in Afghanistan, assuming we wanted to win in the first place. But this is what happens when you try to build a “coalition” while also winning the “hearts and minds” of your enemies. You usually lose.
“and the French primarily wanted to use their people as military trainers, not as combat troops.”
BS, French special forces were operating since the beginning, they even had Bin Laden a few times in sight in the 2002/2003 years, and asked the American headquaters if they should nuke him, they still are waiting for the “go”
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1g3oo_ben-laden-les-rate-s-d-une-traque-1_news
200 COS were operating in Afghanistan under the American commandment in Spin Boldak aeras
-http://le.cos.free.fr/fs-afgha.htm
-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_forces_in_Afghanistan
the French had the role to train the Afhan army (decided by the US)
though since ~2004 the French are doing their lot in offensive operations too
-http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=677_1220547746
The French Army was, for some time, responsible for security in Kapisa Province, a fairly kinetic location adjacent to Kabul. They have the reputation for being good, if a bit conservative, soldiers.
The timing of the defections of key Syrian officers and generals to Turkey overnight cannot be a coincidence. Turkey will try to get NATO to provide air or sea coverage as Turkey helps to strengthen the rebels. The Turks will not fight directly they will get other people to do that for them.
Turkey made a huge mistake in destroying its relationship with Israel. They could use the intel and military support ie. servicing of its Israeli made Heron drones and the advanced upgrades installed by Israel on its fighter jets.
The Turks thought that rejecting Israel would win them huge points in the Arab world. At this point they should be seeing that this has not worked. They also know that door is still open and that Israel, like the patient hopeful girl next door, will take them back when things do not work out with the cheerleader.
one the best argument for dismantlement of NATO. Like many things in life NATO outlived its usefulness. Now that The USSR and Warsaw pact are being death for more than two decades no one can honestly justify keeping NATO a live. The best thing America can do in Syria is let the 21th century version of 16th century Ottoman vs Persia wars resume. Let them fight each other to death. It’s the duty of all Americans to put pressure on Obama and the do-good-er Republicans to stay away of Syria. Ask yourself, what good did the Iraq liberation do? They still murdering each-other.
You make the libertarian argument regarding American power, an argument which is growing in popularity. Leave the world’s problems to by fought over by the Russian, Turkish (Ottoman), Iranian (Persian), Israeli, Hindi, Sino, Punjabi, Saudi, Sunni and Shia power centers and let the chips fall where they may.
NATO which, apart from the US, couldn’t fight it’s way out of a paper bag is further declining in fighting capacity and will power on a daily basis. Europe and Japan are in the early stages of their economic and demographic decline and fall.
A case could be made to try and break the power of the Shia Mullahs in Iran and their malevolent influence all over the M.E. and S. Asia by taking down their most important proxy. The possibility of a green spring? Assad looks doomed in any case. Iran, however, may draw a line in the sand at Syria and throw everything behind the defense of Assad as they did in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
New Sunni theocratic governments will have to govern and create growing economies something which may be beyond their abilities since religious interests may trump expediency. The most advanced Muslim nations have huge economic and demographic problems not dissimilar to Europe’s.
If the Iranian Shia theocracy’s power could be broken then might the Sunnis back off and some form of ME detente arrive?
I am on the side of War.
If Turkey and Iran fight it out over Syria then more power to them. Hopefully this will spark a cataclysmic Sunni-Shia civil war that will end the threat from radical Islam for a few centuries. It is probably better if it happens before Iran has nuclear capabilty than after because once engaged Iran will use it against their Sunni enemies instead of US interests.
Erdrogen will regret his anti- Israel policies. He has lost his nuclear umbrella.
By the way, Iraq is turning out to be a minor succes.
In headlines today Syria claims that they did not know the plane was Turkish.
Yea right. What did they think it was, Israeli?
I can just hear the conversation in the fire control room:
Syrian soldier: Sir, we have a fast moving warplane on the northern border. I think it might be Israeli.
Officer: Is the radar still working?
Soldier: Yer sir
Officer: How about the communication lines? Are they still up?
Soldier: Yes. Working normally.
Officer: Computer systems? Cell phones?
Soldier: All fine sir.
Officer: And I notice we are still breathing. It is not Israeli.
You may not want to fight in any more Middle East wars but that doesn’t matter. It is what the Muslims want that matters. Remember, Islam comes in two flavors, the house of Islam and the house of War. That means you are either Islamic or Islam is at war with you.
The only reason for not fighting them anywhere, any time, for any reason is cowardice, pure and simple.
You try to dress it up in a pretty dress and new shoes but a coward is ANYONE that refuses to fight. For any reason. I realise I’m posting in a liberal echo chamber but somebody has to explain the facts of life to you people.
Nations do not have friends. Period. Nations have interests. Peace is in America’s interest. Historically peace only comes about through superior firepower.
Driven by cowardice empowered by flimsy excuses, the American Left has prevented America from applying it’s superior firepower. This has led to the deaths of thousands of innocents as our enemy attacks the weak and helpless portions of our civilization. Such attacks will continue until America destroys the source. By prevent America’s use of superior firepower you are giving aid and comfort to the enemy.
Have you no shame?
11. spindok
Almost impossible. Every airplane that flies has a distinct radar signature. The F-4 because of the location of it’s twin engines and the anhedral angle of the stabilator, as well as glints off the APQ 50 made the aircraft VERY distinctive on radar. Throw in the fact that only Croatia and Turkey still use F-4′s ( it first flew in 1960 and is considered obsolete by any standard). It was the best 3rd generation fighter and a lot of them were built. The Croatian Phantoms are actually FGR-2′s and use a different engine, which means a different radar signature.
So Syria knew EXACTLY who and what they were shooting at.
The Turks are lying too. Obsolete as it is, with all it’s flaws, the Phantom is still one of the fastest low altitude aircraft in the world. It still holds the record for speed at sea level, I think. You don’t call the local airport and rent one for a quick spin.
Considering that Satt photos would provide anything a recon photo from an F-4 would provide, without getting shot at, the only logical mission profile would be what we called a ‘bell ringer’, back in the cold war. I have done a few of those and they are not solo sorties. My part was sitting in a “spy plane” just outside of missile range off the coast of China. We monitored the Chinese SAM’s. An F-4 would penetrate Chinese airspace at max speed on the deck. We would measure the response of the Chi-Com air defences. The bell ringer had his wingman at about 20,000 feet. Above AAA fire. There would be a cap at 40,000 feet, just in case the Chi-Coms got fighters up.
The Turkish military is NATO grade professional. They would NOT send a single F-4 out for any reason. The F-4 that got shot down had buds watching his 6. Turkey knows EXACTLY what happened.
Both sides are lying. I doubt that we will ever know why.
Is this the same Turkey that denied the US overflight requests? That would not allow the 4th ID to unload at their ports? THAT Turkey? Yeah, riiiiight…
Sorry, boys – you’re on your own. Unless you can talk the Europeans into something, but that’s unlikely given their impecunity.
Why do I smell set up here? Syria’s military is fighting for its life, yet it can spend the resources to down another nation’s jet that flies two inches over the border? Turkey was provoking Syria, how many other times has Turkey overflown Syria, in hopes of being shot down, to invoke NATO? Israel has successfully penetrated Syrian airspace, and used to be militarily tight with Turkey, so some secrets probably got shared.
There may be some genuine, pro-western reformers among the opposition, but it’s probably hard to figure out who they are. When Assad and Qaddafi are the less bad option, things are bad. Assad supports Hamas & Hezbollah in Lebanon, and they are dedicated to wiping out Israel. But the Muslim Brotherhood part of his opposition is also dedicated to wiping out Israel. So I guess we root for a protracted civil war that will leave a weakened Syria. Except that lots of innocent civilians, who want nothing more than to live their lives, get killed too.
NATO serve(d) two purposes: 1) a bulwark against Soviet imperialism, which seems to be gone now, and 2) keep Germany pacified. Normally I’m against pacifism, but in Germany’s case I’m willing to look the other way. It beats German militarism.
Having a hidden agent in the Syrian military order the shootdown of the Turkish jet is well within the MO and style of Hizbollah/Iran, even coordinating the action with actors in the Turkish forces to plan out the pilot and flight plan, and or sabotage the jets nav equipment. JMO.
The spark that lights the fire.
Andrew,
Thank you for clearing things up….. NOT. There’s a lot that does not make sense. Let’s get things straight: Iran solidly backs Assad, Russia solidly backs Assad. Everything else follows from those 2 branches. The brand new President of Egypt, Morsi, hints at strengthening ties with Iran. If that happens the Islamic Brotherhood will then be an ally of Iran and by extension Syria. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long standing ties with the Islamic Brotherhood will then be at odds because he cannot remove Assad and keep strong ties with Iran. It’s a 3 ring circus for sure but Iran holds the cards. If Egypt moves closer to Iran Turkey must move away from the Brotherhood if they want to dominate the region. But they aren’t in any position to dominate the region. Furthermore, Russia will start making inroads in Egypt as it currently supplies Iran and Syria with arms. Turkey cannot be a friend to Iran and the Brotherhood and the West at the same tie. It must side with the West if it wants to maintain its identidy. I see a military takeover for both Turkey and Egypt looming. If America stands by and watches it will be in big trouble as well as for the rest of the region. The Mullahs have to be rubbing their hands at the prospect of a friend in Egypt. They will have Israel surrounded with enemies. Russia is salivating at the chance to sell weapons. Meanwhile, we have a President that has a grade school education concerning dealing with the likes of Assad, the Mulahs, Putin, etc. Not only he but his advisors.
Obama is too afraid of Putin to get us involved in Syria. I’m sure that was one of the issues discussed between them at Rio+20, where Obama was “humiliated”.
One last post, then I’ll leave youse guys to your fluffy little delusions. Turkey doesn’t need NATO help to deal with Syria. That would be like the offensive line of the N.Y. giants getting together to beat up a 6 year old. One pulling guard would be more then enough.
I’m waiting for the Supreme’s to release their ruling on 0bamacare so I don’t have time to look it up but IIRC, Turkey ran armored combat teams into Syria several times during the 70′s or 80′s. Syria was supporting the PKK and Turkey wanted to make sure big Assad knew how they felt about that. Syria has a lot of obsolete ground combat equipment to go with their obsolete air force. Their soldiers are a joke.
The Turkish army was built with the idea of fighting off the Soviet hordes. Syria would be a light snack. Turkey is turning to NATO in hopes of gaining something for their efforts. Good vibes don’t count for much in the ME. Both sides have reached the point in Syria where to only possible solution is a military one. The losers get slaughtered. Win or Die. The left is delusional about that. Egypt will be worse. The Egyptian military spent the last few decades tracking down MB members and killing them. Now the shoe is on the other foot. If I was a Egyptian General, I would be looking for property in the South of France.
Turkey wants a payoff. Their biggest needs are replacing those F-4′s. UAV’s. Main Battle Tanks, Helio gunships.
Let the mohommedists fight themselves. We have fought for the mohommedists against the Christian for to long. Time to make them fight their own garbage. If we go in to Syria like the Turks want we will spend national treasure that BO wants to kill off. Then he can replace them with his mohommedists. I don’t trust this man to do what is right for the nation, He shows total disdain for the military and the qualities that make America great.
Calling for intervention in Syria will, just as it did with Libya, continue to set the new precedent for Arab-led interventionism, which will eventually culminate with an invasion of Israel with a new Arab coalition of the willing. Remember that in intervening in Libya, we were essentially acting as pawns of the grotesque Arab League, which did all the talking but none of the work (the only Arab countries to aid the U.S. in Libya were Qatar and UAE, both of whose militaries are essentially U.S.-owned anyway).
Eventually, when Islamist-led aggression against Israel (through Egypt and the Sinai, most likely) escalates and Israel responds…well, you do the math.
Andrew McCarthy states
“Since there is no good outcome for us, it makes no sense to jump in on the side of one set of America’s enemies, making them stronger.”
This is not true, there are plenty of possible good outcomes to us. The best would be to divide Syria. Most importantly we can use that as a step towards creating a Kurdistan. Kurds patiently working on creating their own national state. If America supports them, we will earn even more lasting loyalty from the future Kurdistan.
The initial goal is to join the Syrian Kurdistan with the Iraqi Kurdistan. The eventual goal should be to include the Easter part of Turkey and Western Part of Iran.
Likewise we could support creating a Christian country in Syria, with the future aim of uniting it with Lebanese Christians. They too, would be our reliable allies. Ideally such Christian country should be on the border to Israel, making it easier to protect from the Muslim in the North. Also offer some autonomy to the Syrian and Lebanese Druzes.
Dividing countries is the normal outcome of all wars. Current idea of protecting the national territories as “sovereign” and “inviolable” is STUPID political correctness.
Likewise we should divide Iran (Azerbaijan, Baluchistan, and already mentioned Kurdistan), Iraq (Sunni, Shiites, Kurds). Also divide Afghanistan along the ethnic lines and most importantly Pakistan. Create Pashtunistan from parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Dismantle Pakistan completely, starting with separate Kashmir from Pakistan. Then Baluchistan. Then Punjab and Sindh. Let the Punjabi keep their nukes for a while if they wish to.
your are dreaming, Turkey will never let that happen
If anyone is dreaming is the neo-Ottoman Erdoğan. The current phony unrealistic WWI map is unsustainable. Sooner or latter The ME map will be redrawn based on its natural ethnic, religion and topographical division.
Indeed, NATO, since includes Turkey, a nominally Islamic state, must be junked. We can reconstitute it as NACO (North Atlantic Christian Organization) and declare war on Islam. This isn’t about Obama, who is threading a needle throughout the Middle East, but rather about good v. evil. Mr. McCarthy, are you sending your kids into the Holy War, or do you really not feel THAT strongly about it? God bless and go forward.
To say that America has no strategic interest in Syria is mistaken. A conflagration with Iran over their weapons program is not only likely, but inevitable.
While I do not support direct American involvement in the Syrian problem, believing it is too late to be effective without great cost to the nation, I do support Syrian upheaval.
In any case, does anyone believe that even should NATO become involved that Barack Obama would do anything but lead from behind to a total flaccid irrelevance and ineffectiveness?
In my opinion, the best possible outcome is for Turkey to respond aggressively and that they and Iran, Sunni and Shia fight a proxy war thoroughly destabilizing Syria and Lebanon along with Hezbollah.
To paraphrase the immortal words of Henry Kissinger, I hope they both lose.
21. Robert Wargas
Who said anything about intervention? Bomb them back to the stone age.
22. vivarto
Absolute fact. The skill in statecraft lies in turn loss into gain. Since the cowards on the left will not allow a direct confrontation with Iran, we have to nibble around the edges. Putting a JDAM through Assad’s bathroom window one morning while he is shaving would be the end of the regime. With a little luck, that would cut the supply line from Iran to Hezzboallah. That would put a serious hitch in their get along. Those that fail to see the advantages of engaging in Syria are being short sighted. They are allowing fear to cloud their judgement.
The fog of war lifts a little;
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/06/25/syria-fires-at-second-turkish-plane-deputy-prime-minister-says/
Like I thought, a bell ringer. It was the only thing that made sense. We used to do bell ringers on the southern coast to get the Chi-coms to look this way. Then the air farce would run a RB-47 in over North Korea. There was a gap in the radar coverage there where N. Korea, China and the Soviet union came together. A RB-47 could get quite a ways into Siberia, then exit over the pole. Got lots of good data that way.
Makes me wonder what was happening on the other side of Syria. The Syrians caught a special ops team. So if the f-4 was intended to be misdirection, it didn’t work.
Andrew should also have mentioned *HOW* the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is leading the mujahideen (from what I heard they are simply called “bandits” in the Syrian army).
Here is an excerpt from an interview with MB’s General Chairman Muhammad Badi’ Moussa, aired on egyptian Al-Hekma TV on March 14, 2012:
—————————————-
Interviewer: Is it permissible to kill ‘Alawites – their women and their children – in retaliation for their actions?
Muhammad Badi’ Moussa: Yes, my brother. We have issued a communiqué to the ‘Alawites, in which we gave them a strong warning, which may be the last. Our brothers in the Free Syrian Army sent queries to scholars in exile, asking whether they were allowed to raid ‘Alawite villages, like the Zahra, Eqrima, and Nuzha suburbs of Homs. […]
—————————————-
Killing Alawites women and children is perfectly fine for the MB’s General Chairman and he even names villages that are to be exterminated. The interview was aired two months before the Houla massacre.
If it is true that the CIA helps with smuggling arms in Southern Turkey, they send arms to those who are advised to kill women and children. If the Syrian goverment would do this, Hillary Clinton would call it a crime against humanity.
Syria: CIA helps with the Genocide
http://www.syrianews.cc/syria-cia-helps-with-the-genocide-847.html
I’ve speculated for years that NATO was founded *not* to counter a primary Soviet threat but to co-opt the European powers’ militaries and keep their parent countries from being able to follow the traditional European practice of ‘twenty years of sophisticated diplomacy and a mutual lunge for the throat’ – followed by a war that would end with one side or the other calling in the Soviets as an ally, or with the Soviets opportunistically invading a weakened Continent.
If that’s so then NATO arguably still serves its original purpose of keeping Europe from self-combustion. It *may* be that detesticate modern Europeans no longer need adult supervision, but I think we get rid of NATO at some risk.
Stoichieon
Enjoyed your posts.
I would not underestimate Syrian defenses. They have formidable anti aircraft, anti ship, and strategic missile capabilities. These are supported by Russian technology. Maybe important that Russians have discovered and defended against both Stuxnet and Flame, the best computer weapons known.
Military in Syra is internally fractured and vulnerable but nobody wants to conquer Syria.
There is no question that a concerted effort by the US could take Syrian military down in short order. In the region Turkey and Israel are bigger dogs but not that much bigger. Maybe the best outcome would be improved relations between Israel and Turkey within a US sphere of influence. Whatever happens in Syria will not be some sort of pro western regime anyway no matter what we do.
Muslims should take care of the problems of Muslim nations. NOT America, Britain or any other Western country! It is immoral to force our military to DIE FOR ISLAM.
Behind the scenes, U.S. leaders worked to oust U.S. ally, moderate Mubarak (which U.S. ally will be betrayed next?) in order to bring to power U.S. leaders TOP FAVORITES, the Muslim Brotherhood, whose stated goal is the DESTRUCTION of civilization and global Islamic conquest. The Obama-Clinton George Soros administration are working with the Muslim Brotherhood and other devout Muslim terrorist organizations to bring this goal to fruition.
End Muslim Turkey’s ILLEGAL occupation of Cyprus! Why is WARMONGER, Turkey, a member of NATO? Muslims call their military control centers, mosques.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan declared: “The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers…”
In February 2011, in Germany, Erdogan told more than 10,000 Turkish immigrants: “We are against assimilation. In 2008, Erdogan also said, “assimilation is a crime against humanity” and told Turkish immigrants to resist assimilation into the West.
The Muslim goal in obedience to the commands of the Koran book of war is Muslim conquest of Europe, Britain and other non-Muslim countries.
It is a horrible BETRAYAL of America and the Free World for America and NATO to do ANYTHING that Muslim Turkey tells them to.
Hillary Clinton Admits US and Al-Qaeda On Same Side in Syria http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmNRcDexVcY
America and the Free World should be very worried that American leaders takes the side of the most devout, radical Muslims in country after country. If this treason keeps up, very soon there won’t be a FREE America OR a Free World.
I predicted six years ago that America would be Islamic before Europe.
What kind of people create a Muslim terrorist organization of barbaric killers?
Hillary Clinton : We created Al-Qaeda http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dqn0bm4E9yw
The Christians in Syria are now living in daily fear. The Christians are being specifically targeted, attacked and killed by the U.S. backed Syria opposition. Who will rescue the Christians? Anti-Christian American leaders won’t ! Help will NOT be forthcoming from rabidly pro-Islam American leaders!
Thanks Spindoc. It seems to me that you are concerned about the law of unintended consequences. Don’t be, she walks both sides of the street. My favorite example of that happened in the 70′s, back when I had hair and real teeth.
There was a communist revolution in Nicaragua. Some nutters in the White house who thought the were a whole lot smarter then they actually were, hired an Argentine infantry battalion.
They named them the contras and sent them to Nicaragua to kill commies. That didn’t work out as well as was hoped, mainly because the military Dictator of Argentina was a shoe-in for Olympic Gold if the Olympics had events in stupidity and brutality. The cure was worse then the disease. General Galtieri and his cronies now figured the USA owed them a big one.
So they invaded the Falklands, thinking the USA would hold off Britain. Well, the USA gave them the big one all right, Coach Jerry style. That PO’d the Argentine citizens enough for them to stage a coup and replace the military dictator with something that looks like a democracy, if the light’s low and you’ve had a few beers.
So a straight forward plan to kill commies and stage a counter revolution produced one war and 2 revolutions. Unintended Consequences, Mr. Murphy’s favorite streetwalker came thru with the daily double.
My point is that there is no point in worrying about what can go wrong. You plan for it and if the wheels come off, deal with it.
There is as much good to come out of bombing Syria as there is bad. One good thing is the terrorist now running Egypt will understand what happens if he gets frisky. After Saddam. Osama and the Duck of Death, he shouldn’t be surprised by the JDAM coming thru his bedroom window.
Syria is getting much worse then Libya was. Egypt will be 10x worse then both Libya and Syria combined.
From Wiki;
“On September 8, Naji Barakat, the Health Minister of the National Transitional Council, stated that about 30,000 people were killed during the war. At least 50,000 war wounded, about 20,000 with serious injuries, were currently estimated, but this estimate was expected to rise.”
10 to 14 thousand in Syria and it ain’t over yet. Neither is Libya.
I expect between a quarter and half a million from Egypt.
Lots of good, knowledgeable comments, much appreciated. This is another aspect of the Internet age I like.
I find the same thing at the Financial Times. I often learn much from the comments.
I heard, that it seems that NATO would provide the Turks some assistance for “retaliating”
Though the Turks deliberately are provocating the Syrians, their plane crashed into Syrian waters.
Why we shouldn’t assist the Islamists into their attempt to rid of Assad
http://www.cf2r.org/images/stories/RR/rr11-syria-report-january-2012.pdf
Here is an ice cube of reality the left needs to put in their koolaid;
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jun/25/after-an-israeli-strike-on-iran/
If a POTUS before 0bumbler had the ‘nads to deal with the Mad Dog Mullahs of Iran, Assad would have left for the south of France months ago. All that is keeping him afloat is support from Russia and Iran. Take Iran out of the picture and Russia is cut off.
Something all dictators have in common is that if you give them an inch, they take a mile.
Sic semper tyrannis.
sorry to disappoint you, Assad would rather go to London where he owns some luxuous appartment
NATO not existing? that would completely upend the current distribution of power in the current US centric global balance of power. Turkey still has the spirit of Kemal Ataturk, still strives (although occasionally fails) to be like the west. The turkish military is the second largest NATO force and could easily unilaterally take down the syrian government. Also the resurgent Russian threat to the north will push Turkey back to the west. Moderate Islamism is akin to Christian Democracy, both accept that democracy and capitalism is the only ideologies that have held up over the past two centuries. Also, lets be honest the Turkish military would intervene in the event of a Iran style regime trying to take power. Israel is a major liability to the west, and the state fails to respect the human rights of Palestine, but a Turkey-less would be a more major loss to the west than Israel as Turkey is our link to the Islamic world.
Marie Claude
What is the public mood in France? I ask because there is a possible intersection of French and Turkish interests. France has a new PM, president or what ever his title is. An event that shows France is still a force to be reckoned with in the world would boost him politically. Dassault Makes a pretty good 4th generation fighter that isn’t selling.
France sends about 48 Rafales to Turkey. They are used to blow the Syrian air force out of the sky. On paper the Rafale is better then the F-16. however, it has no combat record, while the F-16 has a distinguished one. With control of the air, the Turkish army can go anywhere in Syria and do what ever they want while they are there.
That allows the Turkish dude to take another step toward Caliph. Plus when the shooting stops Turkey has 48 slightly used fighter bombers they can buy cheap. France gets the pride and prestige they desire. A win win deal. Not to mention sales for the Rafale, since it now has an excellent combat record.
Blow back is possible in Lebanon, where the French form the largest part of the UN peacekeepers. Hezzboallah might get wild and crazy but I doubt it. If the Hezzies get cut of, I imagine they would be tempted to hoard munition for use against Israel.
stoicheion
Hmm Hollande said that a operation on Syria isn’t opted out, but only under a UN resolution, but all the military are against it, besides of that we have no money to spend gratuitously anymore.
The Turks aren’t our friends, since we vetoed their access to the EU membership, and that we axknowledged the Armenian genocide…
“France sends about 48 Rafales to Turkey.”
I’m not aware of that, I doubt that it’s possible, as France Air-force has 59 of them, may-be you have a source?
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arm%C3%A9e_de_l'air_(France)#Aviation_de_combat_au_d.C3.A9but_du_XXIe.C2.A0si.C3.A8cle
“however, it has no combat record,”
Doch, in Libya, and in Afghanistan
-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_military_intervention_in_Libya#Forces_committed
“In 2007, after a “crash program” enhancement six Rafales were given the ability to drop laser-guided bombs, in view of engaging them in Afghanistan. Three of these aircraft belonging to the Air Force were deployed to Dushanbe in Tajikistan, while the three others were Rafale Marine of the Navy on board the Charles De Gaulle.[69] The first mission occurred on 12 March 2007, and the first GBU-12 was launched on 28 March in support of embattled Dutch troops in Southern Afghanistan, marking the operational début of the Rafale”
-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dassault_Rafale#Afghanistan
“Dassault will now have to submit a detailed project report on the transfer of technology (ToT) to Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL). While the first 18 jets will come in “fly-away condition” from France from mid-2015 onwards, the rest 108 fighters will subsequently be manufactured under licence by HAL over six years.”
yet, India definitly opted for Rafale
-http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/IAF-fighter-deal-Rafale-much-cheaper-than-Typhoon-govt-rules-out-review/articleshow/11830845.cms
Now that India chose French Aircraft, Switzerland, Brazil Emirates, Southern Africa are revisiting their option too.
France had difficulties to sell Rafale because of it cost, also because NATO countries have the habit to buy “American AirCraft”, I wonder why !
BTW,we are thinking on removing our peacekeepers from Lebanon, so, Lebanon will be left with HBZ army
Syria: The thoughts of a Syrian woman
http://www.syrianews.cc/syria-syrian-woman-regime-change-islamists-863.html
A Syrian Sunni women who lives in Germany. She can not understand why the U.S. is about to wage war against her country together with Turkey and Saudi-Arabia.
Send her this link;
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/515039782/1983-Beirut-bomb-began-era-of-terror.html?pg=all
Syria acted as a conduit for weapons to Hezzboallah. Syria supports many terrorist groups. They use assassinations to control Lebanon. Assad needs to die. Your girlfriend needs to ask why Syria is waging war against America.
41. richard40
Sorry dude but you are wrong. Assad is as bad as it gets. We keep bombing him until we get him. It could happen next week or next year. Doesn’t matter. Assad has to get lucky EVERY time. We just have to get lucky once. If Bush had gone with this program instead of an actual invasion, Iraq would be a much better place today. If Assad’s replacement isn’t an improvement, keep bombing. Eventually the Syrians will get it right.
Marie, misunderstanding. I didn’t say that Rafales are in Turkey, I said they need to go to Turkey. And dropping bombs on mud huts isn’t why nations fork over 100 million plus for a jet fighter.
The “teen series” of US Fighters was very successful. Thousands of air to air combats and only a couple of F-14′s have been shot down. Iranian pilots. IIRC, the Greeks shot down a Turkish F-16 a few years ago. Pakistan lost an F-16 over Afghanistan. I think to a Soviet Mig-29. A Dutch F-16 shot down a MiG-29 over Kosovo. So the F-16 has a very good combat record. Terms are flexible.
Syria is flying Soviet aircraft. MiG-29 and it’s marks (MiG-31, MiG-33) and the Su-27 and it’s marks ( Su-30, Su-30m, Su-35) It even has some MiG-25′s.
Nothing there that can deal with a Rafale. I didn’t know the Indian deal had gone through. I thought their Parliament had it on hold while they looked at the SAAB.
You make a good point on syria. Until we can know with some confidence that any overthrow of Assad will not just be replaced by an equally bad muslim brotherhood gov, olike in Egypt, it makes no sense to back either side. Just let them kill each other. Democracy is no panacia if the wilnners of the election are the muslim brotherhood. I have noticed that many repubs are making the same mistake on Syria.
Hmmmm…..I seem to recall Turkey kept half of our strike force bottled up in the Mediterranean just prior to going into Iraq. This in turn led to massive chaos that ensued after Iraq fell as we didn’t have sufficient troops on the ground to enforce control – which in turn gave terrorists ample opportunity to create mischief, mischief that dragged things out for years and resulted in thousands of dead and wound US personnel.
I say we leave Turkey to deal with their own problems as fair weather friends are more dangerous than outright enemies!
@richard40
I understand you are against the political Islam and the same is true for Andrew C. McCarthy.
In Syria a secular political system is under attack by fighters lead by the Muslim Brotherhood.
The U.S. should not support the FSA-bandits. It should joins those, who fight against the political Islam.
The Obama administration should offer military advisers to Syria to help with fighting the terrorists.
Obama could also offer civil advisers to Syria to help with further improving the democracy in Syria.
I want to transfer to a good school for broadcasting/communications. What are some good schools on the east coast that have a communications program. I currently live in Maryland. I heard Florida has a good program but I’m not sure I want to travel that far. I also heard UMD, Syracuse, UNC have a good programs along with Virginia Tech..
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