Here’s an observation you probably haven’t heard anywhere else yet: In 2028, the GOP better nominate a president or a veep who’s under the age of 45. 

We need at least one of ‘em on the national ticket. Otherwise, we won’t win.

One of the statistical shockers of the 2026 midterms was the Democrats’ landslide victory with young voters: They swung 32 points to the left. It was an absolute bloodbath, and the mass migration of young men was the leading factor. Just two years earlier in 2024, 56% of young men voted Republican.

But in the 2026 midterms, young men swung 38 points back to the Dems!

Boomers only inched six points toward the Democrats. By historic standards, that’s nothing. If Boomers were still the dominant demographic, there wouldn’t have been a Blue Wave — barely an off-blue puddle — and the Republicans would still have control of the Senate.

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But today, there are more Gen Zers and Millennials than Gen Xers and Boomers. They’re the ponds with the most fish. And it’s probably worth pointing out that in the overwhelming majority of the Dems’ midterm victories, the younger candidate — often by decades — was the donkey.

The younger candidate won in the South Carolina, Michigan, Texas, Maine, Minnesota, Georgia, Kansas, New Hampshire, and Alaska Senate races. 

All were Democrats.

So maybe we should go young in 2028. (Especially if the Dems nominate someone like AOC.) It’s probably worth considering.

Of course, it could also be entirely coincidental. That’s the thing about political analysis: There are theories and counterarguments for just about everything.

Hey, Vivek Ramaswamy is a baby-faced 41-year-old, and he just lost to 60-something Amy Acton. So maybe this “go young” theory is a bunch of bunk!

Yet I doubt it. There will always be exceptions and anomalies. Obviously, numerous other variables — like candidate quality, PR discipline, and personal judgment — play a determinative role, too. 

Ramaswamy isn’t the exception that disproves the rule; he’s simply the exception. (Hey, it happens.)

It’s similar to the NFL: In every draft, there are statistical outliers — the kid who’s too short, too slow, or too small, but kept making plays against college competition. So you take a flier and draft him in the later rounds. Most of ‘em fail. 

But every now and then, you’ll find a diamond and look like a freaking genius.

Still, gambling on outliers is high-risk, because you (almost always) lose more than you win. Statistical norms exist for a reason. Ignore them at your own peril.

Humans are pattern-recognition machines: We notice statistical clusters and capitalize. Somewhere in our distant evolutionary past, someone noticed that seed plus dirt plus sun plus water equals yummy fruit. Identifying statistical clusters is how we predict the future.

Some clusters are 100% undeniable; they ooze cause-and-effect. Others are strongly suggestive, but not necessarily definitive. My “go young” theory is the latter: strongly suggestive.

But if Marco Rubio runs for president in 2028, the cluster I describe below will be 100% undeniable.

You can’t “Pearl Harbor” your way to a presidential victory; you need a dedicated runway and a long-term flight plan. Running for president requires a series of deliberate steps, especially when you’re still in the president’s cabinet. There’s planning, preparation, team-building, paperwork, fundraising, and organizational infrastructure. It’s a big list, none of which is turnkey. These things must all be built — often from the ground up, which necessitates a (considerable) resource investment.

I call it the Presidential Candidate Kit. It’s a phrase I stole from Jerry Seinfeld: In the 1990s, Seinfeld told Chris Rock that you’ll know when you’re a big-time comedian, ‘cause you’ll receive “The Kit” — a book deal, an HBO special, and a network sitcom.

When a comedian got all three, it meant he was a superstar. He’d reached the top of his profession.

Because according to Seinfeld, a book deal, an HBO special, and a network sitcom are the telltale statistical cluster of comedy success.

At least, they were in the 1990s. (Today, Netflix is the new HBO, nobody watches sitcoms anymore, and a hit podcast matters a helluva lot more than a best-selling book.) Time flies in Hollywood: the business model of 30 years ago is dead and buried.

But time draaaaaaags in D.C. Our political ecosystem is stubbornly resistant to change; it’s stuck in the past, immune to free market forces. The Republican-Democrat duopoly has a stranglehold on the political process — and innovation moves at a glacial pace.

But the upside is, it makes a candidate’s movements that much more transparent. There’s a by-the-books way to run for office, and if you know what to expect, you can anticipate someone’s next move.

Which brings us back to Marco Rubio. 

For many different reasons (and, alas, for some very specific ones), millions of Republicans are having second thoughts about our projected frontrunner, Vice President JD Vance, in 2028. Of all the candidates on the GOP bench, Rubio has been Vance’s most-discussed potential challenger.

Rubio isn’t the only potential challenger, of course. Ted Cruz and Ron DeSantis will be running. Tom Cotton, Glenn Youngkin, and a slew of others are considering it.

But if you prioritize electability, Rubio has the strongest argument: He’s a Gen Xer with the vitality, youthful looks, and energy of a Millennial. He’s bilingual and Latino — and that’s important, too. From 2012 through 2024, the GOP’s share of Latino voters climbed in four straight elections, rising from 27% to 45%. 

Yet in 2026, the Dems won the Latino vote by nearly 30 points! (It almost rivaled our loss of young voters.)

There’s overlap between young voters and Latino voters: Latino voters are roughly a decade younger than the overall electorate. Chances are excellent that a candidate who excels with Latinos will also perform well with young voters — as Donald Trump did in 2024.

Which again points to Rubio.

He’s the rare Trump cabinet member whose reputation didn’t diminish while in office; it steadily increased. The meme of a tired, exhausted Marco Rubio sitting on the couch, dutifully cleaning up everyone’s mess, has taken on a life of its own.

It’s now a permanent part of Marco Rubio’s brand: He’s the ultra-competent professional who knows how to get [BLEEP] done.

So how will we know when he’s planning to run for president?

Simple: Rubio will activate his Presidential Candidate Kit — and complete these three tasks in this specific order:

One: Resign as Secretary of State (and from all his other White House responsibilities). This is absolutely mandatory, because Rubio needs the freedom to campaign in the early primary states, separate himself from the current administration, and build his own identity and organization. 

He can’t do that while representing the Trump White House and the State Department.

If he’s planning to run for president, I hope he resigns over the next few days. Because if he waits until after the new Congress is sworn in, it’ll be next to impossible to get his successor confirmed by a Democratic-controlled Congress.

(Then again, maybe there’s a Machiavellian benefit to blindsiding the Trump administration, resigning in March or April, and making the White House — and by extension, JD Vance — seem flat-footed, unprepared, and incompetent. But I hope he doesn’t do that.)

Two: Sign a book deal. (“What’s the deal with book deals?” — Jerry Seinfeld, probably.) Hey, Hollywood has moved forward, but the U.S. political duopoly is still stuck in the 1990s. But that’s okay: For Rubio in particular, there’s intense interest in hearing his raw, unfiltered opinions. More so than most would-be candidates.

After all, President Trump won’t be writing a tell-all book before 2028. Neither will JD Vance, who just released a book on faith and religion. They’ll continue to be chopping wood in the White House ‘til Inauguration Day, 2029. That means neither can give us the “insider” sneak peek we want.

But a tell-all book by Rubio would be fascinating. It’s a perspective only he can give. He’d get a multimillion-dollar advance (ca-ching!), and the book would be a slam-dunk, can’t-miss, runaway bestseller.

Best of all, it would give Rubio an excuse to schedule a nationwide book tour — making the media rounds, giving speeches, and barnstorming through all the early primary states.

The book doesn’t have to be backstabbing or underhanded. Rubio doesn’t need to attack the president or vice president. All he has to do is tell a compelling, eye-grabbing story that brands him as a competent, capable, forward-thinking leader. 

So first you resign, then you sign a book deal. And then you use your book as PR currency. 

That’s how the political game is played.

Three: Staffing, PACs, and travel. Resigning from the cabinet and inking a book deal are both high-profile and overt; staffing, PACs, and travel often happen under the radar.

But they’re critically important. Unless you’re a billionaire — and Rubio isn’t — you need the legal infrastructure to raise money, hire advisors, and stick like Velcro to federal guidelines.

The Dems are itchin’ for an excuse to wage lawfare on Republicans, so GOP presidential candidates better be prepared.

There won’t be a ton of big elections in 2027, but there’ll be a Senate race in Minnesota and gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Rubio will want to play kingmaker and support like-minded candidates. 

That requires a PAC, a base of donors, and a competent campaign team.

Plus, a ton of personal travel. Retail politics is the name of the game in Iowa and New Hampshire. If you want to win there, you better rack up your frequent flier miles, because those voters expect to look you in the eye while shaking your hand. 

It’s not something you can do remotely. Not if you want to win.

And Rubio wouldn’t be running for president to lose. Not again. If he runs, it’s because he really, truly believes he can win this time.

So, does this mean Rubio will be running?

The Magic 8 Ball is unclear. The Independent is reporting that Rubio is “on resignation watch,” whereas Dylan Johnson, the assistant secretary of state, called it “fake news.” 

Which is to be expected: Until it happens, there’s nothing to report. Rubio gains nothing by signaling his moves to the media or making himself look like a Dead Man Walking.

If he resigns, it’ll likely come with minimal warning. If he follows the traditional PR playbook, he’ll most likely resign on a Friday afternoon — the best day of the week to deliver a media thunderbolt.

Like today or next week.

Watch Rubio’s next steps. If he’s running, we’ll probably know very, very soon.

And his very first step will be resigning.

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