I’m shocked he did it. I’m even more shocked that the White House (apparently) allowed it.
Nonetheless, Vice President JD Vance threw down his cards and pushed in his chips:
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
Let’s make two assumptions: First, the White House’s top communicative goal after an Election Day wipeout is to put the defeat in the rearview mirror ASAP, rally the troops, and reposition the narrative to something positive. You want the “defeat” storyline to go to bed, and a more advantageous storyline to supplant it.
It’s the well-traveled, oft-recited crisis communications speech: Some version of, “We get it, we’re sorry, it won’t happen again, now look at [this].”
Second, JD Vance has his own goals, too. He’s the 2028 GOP presidential frontrunner; he’s the Man Who Would Be King. And, to paraphrase how he describes our relationship with Israel, sometimes his goals align with the White House. When they do, they can be splendid allies.
But sometimes, alas, they don’t.
For very specific political reasons, JD Vance is incentivized to use President Donald Trump’s orbit as a launching pad, rotating around and around the president, reflecting his glow and eclipsing all would-be competitors — but then launching himself free, blazing his own path in the sky.
The vice presidency is a demeaning, subservient role. You’re branded as a second banana — an NPC sidekick. At best, you’re the supporting actor; at worst, you’re the comic relief. And that’s a big PR obstacle when you’re auditioning for the ultimate leading role.
The vice presidency is so demeaning and so subservient, it could even make a teenage war hero look like a wimp!
So eventually, Vance would need to break free of Planet Trump’s gravitational death-grip and eclipse his boss as the brightest star in the sky. Everyone knew this.
But no one thought he’d make his move on Nov. 4, 2026!
His boss, after all, is famously thin-skinned: He has zero tolerance for dissent or disloyalty. Yes, he’s surprisingly gracious and forgiving — just ask Elon Musk, Michael Cohen, or even JD Vance himself — but the Trump White House is the Trump Show. The president is the superstar; the spotlight is on him.
President Trump sets the agenda. President Trump gives all the big speeches. President Trump is front and center for all the big moments. President Trump is the undisputed communicator-in-chief.
Until now.
In an audacious X post, Vance point-blank blamed his boss’ decision to fight the Iran War for the midterm defeat (!), redefined MAGA’s purpose and mission (!!), and gave us a sneak peek at his 2028 GOP platform:
- End the war
- Focus on cost of living/inflation
- Put America First
- Change our relationship with Israel
“In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting,” wrote the vice president on X. He’s exactly right.
Vance’s statement directly undermined the White House’s communicative goals. Instead of putting the “defeat” storyline to bed and flipping the page to something unifying and positive, he gave it a shot of adrenaline: The Iran War is now a MAGA litmus test. If you supported the war, you’re why we lost. And going forward, “changing our relationship with Israel” will be a pillar of the new MAGA mission.
Neither was necessary. Neither will mend fences, foster unity, or rally the troops.
It’s also at odds with the same polling data that Vance likes to cite. Just 19% of Republican voters believe U.S. support for Israel is “too strong” — and 59% believe it’s “not strong enough.”
Either way, it’s not a top-burner issue:
Yes, the Iran war is unpopular. No, “changing our relationship to Israel” isn't among Republicans' top voting priorities. Not even close. With respect to VP Vance, he and his pollster need to spend less time on X https://t.co/GFfLr3mRSb
— Eitan Fischberger (@EFischberger) November 4, 2026
Vance’s wording — “change our relationship with Israel” — was awfully interesting, because it’s a suspiciously open-ended phrase: Moving closer to Israel would also be a change, yet somehow, I doubt that’s what Vance intended.
Fox News’ politics editor, Katelyn Caralle, also doubts it. She wrote, “A source familiar with post-election schedules said the Vice President’s X post today was made after a White House meeting on aligning messaging following Tuesday’s Republican bloodbath. Instead, [Vance] took control of his own response. One Trump official described Vance’s post as a rallying cry to the “new right” — a coalition of Republicans that align with Trump’s “America First” movement but believe the president is too aligned with Israel on foreign policy.” [emphasis added]
JD Vance’s 2028 strategy is clear: He’s not looking to inherit Donald Trump’s MAGA movement. That’s why he’s not even trying to reunite it.
He’s building a brand-new movement — the “new right” — and it’s significantly closer to Tucker Carlson’s worldview than to Ted Cruz's or Ron DeSantis's.
Or even to Donald Trump's. Vance’s boss has been heralded as the “most pro-Israel president in U.S. history,” yet the veep is prioritizing a major policy reversal.
But why? Israel isn’t a top-four issue for Republicans. According to polls, 58% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters have a favorable opinion of Israel. Being pro-Israel is a normal, mainstream Republican position.
Of course, some very notable podcasters have been working overtime to change our opinions.
JD Vance’s X post read like a sanitized version of a Tucker Carlson monologue. Some of his rhetorical choices gave me a chuckle: In two of his first three paragraphs, he refers to Trump voters as “Trump/Vance” voters. (Sure they were, JD.)
“The reason we lost [the midterms] is the war,” the V.P. declared on November 4. Yet one month earlier, he told reporters the opposite: “I wouldn’t call it a war.”
This inadvertently shines a bright light on why the Iran War is so unpopular: This on-again, off-again, Schrödinger’s cat-of-a-conflict has had more stops and starts than a 1975 Amtrak train. The public still doesn’t know what the hell is going on.
And a big contributing factor was the utterly unworkable, poorly negotiated MOU that JD Vance produced!
The vice president wasn’t an innocent bystander. His fingerprints were all over the MOU.
It’s what he personally negotiated!
So maybe the problem wasn’t the war. Maybe the problem was the ceasefire.
Mr. Vice-President, Please allow me to present a different perspective. The problem was not the Iran War. It was the cease fire. If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it – otherwise don’t start it. This war should have been over six months ago, with the Strait of Hormuz wide open and oil flowing. The second and third tiers of Iranian leadership should have been destroyed, and we should have supported the pro-western forces who could have taken leadership. We stood on the brink of a new, more peaceful Middle East - and then we blinked. We had a chance not only to deny Iran nuclear weapons, but to get rid of the world’s biggest supporter of terrorism. Instead, we had a cease fire, which was followed by months of will we or won’t we finish the job. Every day was a different message. There still is. Is the war over? Is it about to begin? No one knows. There is confusion and inconsistency. In June 2025, America was not involved. This was an Israel vs Iran issue. No one forced the United States to attack Iran then, or in February of 2026. It was a decision made by President Trump. In my opinion, it was the right decision. Once the decision was made, we should not have stopped until the regime fell. But instead, you negotiated a cease fire that didn’t last, didn’t work and left us in no man’s land, with higher prices and our troops still deployed. Our troops could have been home, the Navy returned to its bases, a peaceful regime in place , new alliances forged, and gas prices below $3.00 a gallon. No, Mr. Vice President. It’s not the war. It’s the so-called cease fire.
— Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) November 4, 2026
And maybe Vance’s political instincts aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. After all, his strong, passionate support of Vivek Ramaswamy’s “mom” ad aged like milk.
In hindsight, the “mom” ad was a disastrous tactical mistake. It was the exact wrong message at the exact wrong time, and Jon Husted’s Senate bid, alas, was caught in the crossfire.
Maybe Vance’s X post will go down in history as a mistake, too. Oh, it’ll win him rave reviews on the Tucker Carlson Network — and men like Thomas Massie will respond with thunderous applause:
@JDVance @ImdaVinman Thanks for acknowledging these things. Better late than never. I’ll send you the hat. https://t.co/BhTENTdK57
— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) November 4, 2026
But it jeopardizes his standing with the Republican majority that supports Israel, fears Islamism, and is getting frickin’ tired of podcasters trafficking in antisemitic dog whistles. It’s divisive instead of unifying — and unnecessarily so. Because most Republicans don’t obsess over Jews and Israel; our focus is on the economy, security, crime, immigration, taxes, affordability, healthcare, stopping socialism, and Making America Great Again.
Of course, some people really do obsess over the Jews and Israel. Some people think Jews and Israel control the world. We have a word for these people.
They’re called antisemites.
But lately, they’re also called Senator, Mayor, and Congresswoman. Abdul El-Sayed won his election in Michigan. So did Darializa Avila Chevalier in New York. A year earlier, Zohran Mamdani became New York’s mayor. All three trafficked in antisemitic tropes; all three prioritized “changing our relationship with Israel.”
Demonizing Israel is a winning strategy. The results speak for themselves.
And it’s absolutely, 100% possible to advocate a different policy position with Israel without being an antisemite. America First means precisely that; no apologies, no exceptions.
So maybe JD Vance is just ahead of the curve: He read the tea leaves correctly, and this is the GOP’s fastest, most efficient path to victory in 2028. Maybe jettisoning Israel is a necessary course correction because too many pro-Israel Boomers have aged out of the MAGA movement.
What worked from 2016 through 2024 might not work in 2028. Demographics are always in a constant state of flux; like it or not, this is a different America.
And younger Americans are increasingly anti-Israel, anti-Zionist, and pro-Palestinian. So maybe Vance is simply being a smart, pragmatic politician. Maybe, by taking a step backwards on Israel, MAGA can take a step forward on the next generation of America First policies. Maybe Vance’s instincts are right on the money.
Or maybe most Republicans don’t blame Israel or agree with Tucker Carlson — and this political miscalculation will cost Vance the 2028 nomination.
He’ll certainly be attacked for it. Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, and Marco Rubio are all pro-Israel. Vance’s synergy with Tucker Carlson is one of his biggest vulnerabilities. His opponents would be committing political malpractice if they didn’t make it a 2028 issue.
But if enough GOP candidates split the pro-Israel vote, it won’t really matter.
It was an audacious move. I’m shocked Vance did it. I’m even more shocked the president allowed it.
Still, give the vice president credit: He laid his cards on the table — his vision for the future of the MAGA movement. It’s now all out in the open.
And the ideological war for MAGA’s future is underway.
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