Earlier this summer, Israel and the United States came within hours of launching devastating new strikes on Iran. Planes warmed up on the runway, ships were poised to launch cruise missiles, and other planes taking off from bases in Diego Garcia were en route.
Trump called off the attack. The Financial Times says it's because Trump feared an oil price spike before the election. Shortly after the canceled attack, Trump said he wouldn't attack Iran before the November 3 elections.
It's been like this for months. Plans are drawn up, assets are readied, and then... nothing. Trump cancels the strike, and the war planners go back to work.
With each canceled strike, the Iranians appear to harden their position on ending their nuclear program and giving up control of the Strait of Hormuz. Now word has leaked out that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are planning another round of strikes on Iran to take place after the elections in both countries.
"As planning for a short but intensive operation progresses, the U.S. and Israeli militaries have stepped up exercises, flying planes over Iraq to practice strike maneuvers," reports The New York Times. "Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes, U.S. officials said."
Sources tell the Times that "the targets would likely include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal."
While blowing up the enemy's infrastructure is a good idea, would this strike, massive as it may be, advance our war aims? Will it help bring down the Iranian regime? Will it force Iran to give up its nuclear program?
Massive strikes on the Iranian oil industry and other economically valuable assets could, theoretically, cause the Iranians to cry "Uncle!" and make big concessions.
But these are fanatical religious zealots and fanatical nationalists. It's doubtful that more high explosives will get them to yield.
“At this point in the war, what is clear is that the conventional military campaign waged to date, and the current punishing economic sanctions and American naval blockade, have not brought the regime back to the negotiating table in a meaningful way,” said Dana Stroul, who served in the Biden administration.
The repeated planning efforts followed by Mr. Trump’s decisions against new attacks has caused “day-to-day whiplash” among military planners, said one commander, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, as they try to stay poised to carry out whatever military option Mr. Trump decides in the coming weeks.
In each round of the war so far, Iran’s leadership has become less conciliatory, convinced that the ultimate U.S. and Israeli goal is to topple its government.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, remains an enigma to U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials. Some officials say he is not as powerful as his father, who was killed early in the war, and that hard-line members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps make key decisions.
Peiman Salehi, a political analyst in Tehran, said, “The war has made us understand that the best leverage for pressuring Trump is increasing oil and energy prices because it will hurt the American people."
Hitting a Saudi tank farm would be a devastating blow to our oil supply. Some Iranians believe they will dictate when the war ends.
“Our attacks will be more fierce, creative and different,” Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran’s negotiator, said. “We are determined and confident, and strong planning has been put in place.”
I doubt we'll see another round of strikes in Iran. It would change nothing, and would only harden Iran's negotiating position.
Wars are won in the will. Iran seems to think it can walk away with a better deal by stonewalling the U.S., forcing us to make concessions simply because we want the conflict to end.