Democrats Pulling Money From House Districts They Hoped to Flip

In an election that will decide control of both houses of Congress, every seat, every race matters. While the vast majority of seats for both parties have been carefully gerrymandered, there are 46 seats that are technically up for grabs.

Democrats hold 25 of those districts, and Republicans hold 21, according to Ballotpedia. There are 21 districts currently held by a Democrat that Donald Trump won in 2024. The 21 Republican seats at risk are largely historic swing districts that are competitive every two years.

There was a time early in the fall when Democrats believed they could make big gains in deep red states like Florida and Texas. They may yet win the Texas Senate race, but the districts they were targeting earlier in many cases have proved to be a will-o'-the-wisp.  

In two of those districts, Democrats are pulling out and giving up. "The main Democratic super PAC charged with electing House Democrats, House Majority PAC, is cutting its ad spend in two districts — Colorado’s Third and Florida’s 7th, according to the ad tracking firm Adpact," reports The New York Sun. Trump carried the district by 10 and 12 points, respectively.

In general elections, a 10-point win by the party in power typically marks the limit of competitiveness. Democrats have invested in several races in districts Trump won by more than 10 points, and we can expect them to begin pulling back resources from most of those districts.

Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) was targeted by the Democrats this cycle largely due to changing demographics in his district. Trump won the district by 14 points in 2016, by 8 points in 2020, and by 10 points in 2024.

Hurd ran afoul of Trump by opposing him on tariffs, and Trump initially backed his challenger in the primary. But senior Republicans in the House rallied around Hurd and Trump, realizing that Hurd was a far better choice than his inexperienced primary opponent, and reendorsed the incumbent prior to the primary.

The Democratic challenger is Dwayne Romero, an Army veteran and executive at a real estate management company.  

Hurd's opposition to tariffs was a survival strategy.

The New York Sun:

Mr. Hurd has distanced himself from the president on the tariff issue, which disproportionated impacted rural communities like the one Mr. Hurd represents. “I’ve heard a lot from our farmers, agricultural producers, manufacturers of all sizes across the district that these tariffs are not good for Colorado’s 3rd District. And the Constitution is clear and it’s in the best interest of my district. And for me, that made the vote the right vote, and I stand by it,” Mr. Hurd told Colorado Public Radio at the time. Mr. Hurd went on to win his primary even after Mr. Trump demanded that voters toss him out.

The race has gone from a "lean Republican" to "likely Republican," and Democrats have pulled out.

The Republican incumbent in Florida's 7th District, Cory Mills, was not only accused of domestic abuse by his wife, but he was under investigation for accepting government contracts, which is illegal under House rules. Democrats believed they had a good shot at flipping the seat until Mills lost the primary by 12 points. Ryan Elijah, a local radio news anchor, defeated Mills and appears headed for an easy victory.

Democrats are cutting more than half a million dollars in ad buys in the 7th District, while Cook has changed the rating from "lean Republican" to "likely Republican. 

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