Several news outlets are reporting that the Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to finish preparations for major combat operations to resume in Iran.
U.S. and Israeli sources say it could happen "before the U.S. midterm elections and possibly the Israeli elections a week earlier," according to Axios.
The attacks would target Iranian energy, infrastructure, and nuclear infrastructure.
"The Department's job is to develop and present military options to the President," a Pentagon official told Axios. Trump has not made a final decision on whether to take the gloves off and hit Iran where it would hurt not only Tehran, but the U.S. and our allies around the world. It makes sense that if he's going to pay a political price for an attack so close to an election, that it should be as decisive an attack as possible.
The benchmark Brent crude oil is already trading above $105 per barrel, while U.S. oil is at $93 per barrel. "Benchmark diesel futures jumped 4.5% in European trading. Heating oil, a proxy for jet fuel, rose more than 4%," reports NBC News.
Opposition to the war is at an all-time high, with support at just 31% and opposition at 59%.
This is not a "wag the dog" scenario where Trump would want to hit Iran to increase support for Republicans going into the midterms. In a way, this would be as devastating a strike as the decapitation bombing at the beginning of the war. Destroying Iran's one and only source of income could lead to an economic meltdown such as the world has never seen. After that, anything can happen.
"The U.S. is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economy collapsing. Iran has been decimated, and things will go one of two ways: the easy way or the hard way," a White House official told Axios. "President Trump holds all the cards and will do whatever is best for the United States."
Axios:
On Friday, Trump's national security team met at Camp David for several hours to discuss the war and other issues.
An Israeli official told Axios that part of the meeting focused on a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after the meeting that it focused on "long-term" foreign policy planning.
Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran haven't made any progress. Qatari mediators are still waiting for an Iranian response to a U.S. counterproposal that included demands for nuclear concessions.
"The discussion about possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran has increased. The chances of it happening before the elections is not high but we don't rule it out. After the midterms the chances of it happening increase significantly," a second Israeli official said.
Behind the scenes: President Trump spoke Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It was their second call in days, after barely speaking for many weeks.
"If major combat operations resume, they will most likely be with the U.S. and Israel working in tandem and with the Israeli military participating," according to Axios.
Renewed fighting with Iran and the U.S./Israel would almost certainly benefit Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition. Iran is likely to lob several dozen missiles into Israeli territory. With Israel under attack, Netanyahu's arguments take on a new urgency. He was going to come close to winning anyway, but if Iran attacks, he may win in a landslide.
Neither leader is thinking of resuming major hostilities for electoral reasons. Democrats will almost certainly accuse Trump of "desperation" to save the Republicans' electoral fortunes, but that doesn't make any sense. Already an unpopular war, it's likely that a massive escalation, especially before the election, would only make a bad PR situation worse.
In 1972, North Vietnam was also dragging its feet at the negotiating table. They had broken off talks in early December, and President Richard Nixon ordered a massive bombing of Hanoi beginning December 18, one of the heaviest since World War II.
Over 20,000 tons of ordnance were dropped on Hanoi and Haiphong. The bombing during Christmas intensified the moral criticism of the world. Major outlets portrayed it as "indiscriminate, immoral, and strategically pointless."
The New York Times described it as “terrorism on an unprecedented scale.”
On December 29, North Vietnam came back to the negotiating table. Less than a month later, on Jan. 23, 1973. North Vietnam agreed to a peace deal.
Perhaps Iran needs a reminder of just how weak and vulnerable it is. If Trump decides to unleash hell on Tehran, they may wish they hadn't been so obstinate.