Democrats are convinced this is the year Texas finally flips. Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D-50th District) has led Republican Ken Paxton in the polls, and he currently holds a 1.5-point edge in the RealClearPolitics average. To hear the Democrat Party tell it, the Lone Star State is ready to turn blue.

I've never believed it. Whenever I've talked to someone from Texas, they've told me the same thing. Don't believe the polls out of Texas. Multiple people in the state have told me that Talarico won't win.

Of course, you could write that off as conservatives telling themselves what they want to hear. But conservatives aren't the only ones saying it anymore.

On Thursday, MS NOW anchor Katy Tur admitted that she's "more skeptical" of the Texas polling after reporting from the state. The comment came during a segment on the latest midterm numbers with Puck News co-founder Peter Hamby, as the two hashed out whether the polls are overstating the Democrats' lead.

"Is this just a product of pollsters really not wanting to be wrong and trying to invent ways to say, 'We could be wrong, maybe it's this,' because the polling does look so outrageously bad for Republicans right now?" Tur asked.

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According to Hamby, "that would be what pollsters and data folks call herding: pollsters, not great ones probably, directing their polls to align with the news cycle and sentiment." He added that good pollsters rely on modeling to correct for non-response bias and for how hard it has become to reach voters by landline or cellphone. He pointed to Nate Silver's average, which shows Democrats up about nine points on the national generic ballot, and to State Navigate, a Virginia-based data firm that has Democrats ahead by 20, though he conceded Virginia leans more blue-purple than other states.

Then things got interesting.

Hamby had written about an Echelon poll that showed Republicans with a three-point generic ballot lead once voters were asked how their neighbors would vote. He also cited a USC Dornsife Center study conducted after 2020. Polls that year had Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump by seven or eight points, but asking voters how their neighbors and social circles would vote produced a number much closer to the real outcome, a Biden win of about four points.

"Now, this doesn't necessarily mean shy Trump voter," Hamby explained. "It could be people responding to polls, saying what they think they should say. They're talking to a media organization. They're reading the headlines."

"They think Democrats are going to win, but this gives them a little air cover, this question, to maybe say what they really think," he continued.

Hamby didn't oversell the Echelon result. "I don't think anyone really thinks that Republicans have a three-point lead on the generic ballot, but it does suggest that these races could be closer than some of the polls are showing," he said.

Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner!

He also reminded viewers that in 2020, reputable polls, including the New York Times/Siena poll, had Democrats winning races in South Carolina and Iowa. Republicans beat those polls, and both states are on the ballot again this year.

That brings us back to Texas.

Hamby noted a Fox poll showing Talarico ahead of Paxton by two points. The very same poll found Texas voters prefer Republican control of the Senate by one point, which Hamby read as a sign that some voters want a divided Senate. So Texans are telling pollsters they like the Democrat and also want the GOP running the chamber he'd be joining. Make of that what you will.

Then came the moment that stood out. Tur, fresh off her trip to Texas, offered her own read on the ground game.

"I'm a little more skeptical of the polling in Texas, having been there, because I did just get a lot of 'I'm going to vote for the team,' which was the message from Angie Nixon, which means you have a terrible candidate," Tur said. "But the polling, or the Republican impulse, is so deeply ingrained in Texas, and it feels like it's hard to break."

She then wondered aloud whether "pollsters getting honest answers, or are they just getting the answers that people think they want to hear?"

That's a remarkable thing to hear on MS NOW. If Katy Tur is willing to admit that on the ground in Texas it doesn't feel like a Talarico victory, that says a lot.

In short, don't trust the polls. They capture what people are willing to say out loud, and when every headline points in the same direction, plenty of voters keep their real intentions to themselves. You’re being manipulated. Of course, so are Democrats. Think about how much money they’ve donated to Talarico that could have gone elsewhere.