Democrats lead in many of this year's key midterm polls, and honestly, that was expected. The party out of the White House usually enjoys an edge heading into a midterm, so a Democrat lead surprises no one paying attention. Still, the trolls on social media want us to believe a bloodbath is coming and that MAGA has abandoned the GOP. Dig into the numbers, and in so many ways, the polls aren't nearly as strong as the left wants us to believe.
Consider the latest I&I/TIPP Poll. It gives Democrats an edge in the race for Congress, but a slim one, and the undecided voters and the long record of polling misses keep Republican control well within reach. It may be one poll, but TIPP's track record is pretty solid. The firm has ranked among the most accurate pollsters across the past six presidential elections.
"To read much of the mainstream media, you might think that the Democrats will easily win in the upcoming midterm elections to determine the political makeup of Congress during the last two years of President Donald Trump’s final term in office. But it’s not that simple, as the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows," writes Terry Jones, editor at Issues & Insights.
Asked which party they want running Congress after the midterms, 46% of voters picked Democrats, and 42% picked Republicans. The remaining 12% are unsure, and that group will likely decide the outcome. Democrats are nearly unanimous, with 96% backing their own party, while 90% of Republicans want a GOP-led Congress and 5% remain undecided. Independents lean Democrat, 44% to 25%, but 31% haven't made up their minds.
Plenty of room for the GOP to come home, turn out, and beat the polls. And here’s why the GOP has the most to gain from these undecided voters: When the question turns to which party should control both chambers, the gap all but disappears. Democrats get 40%, and Republicans get 39%, well inside the margin of error. Only 7% want split control, and another 7% have no preference. Voters clearly want the next Congress to pick a direction and either work with Trump or work against him.
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The issue picture favors no one in particular. "Economy and cost of living" topped the list at 40%, nearly three times the 14% who chose Social Security and Medicare. Healthcare and immigration/border security drew 8% each, while election integrity and taxes/government spending landed at 6% apiece. Democrats, Republicans, and independents broadly agree on what matters most. Where they split is on the fixes, and on which party and which candidates have the right answers.
Of course, the poll has some numbers Democrats will happily cite. Asked what they want from Congress after November, 49% said it should check Trump's policies, while 30% said it should support them. Even 34% of Republicans want a check on the administration.
But here's the problem for anyone treating the polls as a sure thing for Democrats. Polls routinely overstate Democrat support and understate Republican support. Since 2016, they've missed by an average of 3.7 percentage points in the final three weeks before Election Day. As PJ Media previously reported, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten ran that scenario for the Senate, and if historic polling misses happen again in 2026, Republicans will win the Senate.
That Senate math is exactly where Republicans are focusing their energy. Holding the upper chamber would serve as a backstop if Democrats flip the House, where they've already promised to impeach Trump. Trump, meanwhile, is campaigning to juice GOP turnout, and there are signs the strategy is working.
The narrative of an inevitable Democrat wave serves a purpose: voter suppression. A party convinced it has already lost tends to stay home, and a press corps eager to write the obituary knows it.
