Spend five minutes on social media these days, and you'll find left-wing bots predicting a blue wave. They're everywhere, and they're absolutely certain that Republicans are about to get crushed on Nov. 3. The media have been pushing a similar story for months. Lately, though, even some of the people pushing it have started hedging, quietly admitting they could be wrong.
In fairness, the blue wave crowd has some numbers to point to. The polls suggest that Democrats are headed for a good night, and history is on their side, since the party holding the White House usually takes a major hit in a midterm year.
But CNN's Harry Enten has pointed out that if this year’s polls are off the way they’ve been historically, Republicans will hold the Senate, and they could even keep the House.
How is that possible? It comes down to the data pollsters have to work with.
Last week, veteran pollster Frank Luntz went on CNN and explained how that data has misled the experts before and why it could happen again. When host Boris Sanchez asked whether the polls might be undersampling the kind of voter Trump usually brings out, Luntz went back to 2016.
"We know that they don't respond to phone calls," Luntz told CNN. "We know that in the exit polling back in 2016, and I say this publicly because I want people to hear this. You know, I teach at West Point. I cannot lie, cheat, or steal. The cadets can't. I can't. I got 2016 wrong. I believed in the exit polls. Trump voters walked away, refused to participate because they thought that it was against them."
Now, Luntz isn’t some MAGA pollster selling copium to Republicans. He’s telling us what he has personally experienced, and making it clear that it may very well be a factor in this year’s midterms.
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Luntz allowed that the polls might get it right this time, but he isn't sold.
"In the end, Republicans are less likely to participate," he said. "They're less likely to believe the polls are happening."
His bigger concern is turnout, and he doesn't think many pollsters are measuring it well.
"And turnout determines everything," Luntz said. "And I ask the viewers, pay attention to how they've asked the questions about turnout. It's not whether you say you're going to vote or not, because people lie."
Luntz said three questions separate likely voters from everybody else: how interested someone is in the election, how often they follow political news, and how often they talk politics with friends and neighbors. Here's the thing, though. He said plenty of pollsters skip those questions entirely, which means they're surveying the mood of the whole country instead of the folks who'll actually show up.
"And I hate to say this, but a lot of polls don't ask it," he added.
💥Frank Luntz *DUMPS COLD WATER* on CNN viewers' dreams of blue wave💥 Luntz warned Trump voters "don't respond" to pollster phone calls. He admitted he "got 2016 wrong" because he trusted the exit polls. Luntz asserted he is "skeptical" the current polling is accurate. Moreover, he cast doubt on whether pollsters are using the right measurements and asking the proper questions to determine turnout. Luntz has been a renowned pollster for decades, so this is meaningful coming from him. He knows firsthand how polling can miss Trump voters. Since there are many close races, underestimating Republican turnout by a small margin could make all the difference. It sounds like there’s a real chance of that happening.
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 18, 2026
Luntz isn't predicting a red wave, and he's not dismissing the polls outright. He's simply admitting that the tools his industry relies on have a blind spot, and that blind spot has a habit of landing right on top of Republican voters.
That means it’s on Republican voters to get out and vote and keep the House and Senate red.