One of the biggest mysteries to me in politics is why Jews still vote Democrat. For decades, they've been one of the most reliable voting blocs the left has, sticking with the Democrat Party election after election, even as the party drifted further and further away from them.
Loyalty has its limits, though, and the Democrat Party seems determined to find them.
Consider how steady that support has been. Kamala Harris won roughly 71% of the Jewish vote in 2024, according to post-election surveys. Jewish voters make up a fairly small slice of the electorate, but that kind of devotion is still a huge asset for Democrats, especially in states where Jewish communities turn out in big numbers.
The trouble is that the party those voters stuck with has changed. As the far left has taken over, the Democrat Party has become more antisemitic, more pro-Palestine, pro-Hamas, and pro-Hezbollah.
As a result, Jews are starting to abandon their party.
CNN's Harry Enten laid out just how fast that support is collapsing during a segment on CNN News Central Wednesday. He focused on New York, the state where Jewish voters make up the largest share of the electorate.
"Republicans have made a real play for them on the issue of Israel," Enten told host John Berman. "We have seen Democrats sort of shift away, become more pro-Palestinian in the polling, and you can see it right here."
The Siena polling he cited is brutal for Democrats. Andrew Cuomo carried Jewish voters by 55 points in the 2018 governor's race, and Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) won them by 51 points in 2022. This year, her lead among them has shriveled to 13.
"We're talking about a swing here, Johnny B., of what? Thirty-eight points downward towards the Republicans when it comes to Jewish voters," he said.
Think about that for a second. In the span of a single term, a Democrat governor has watched a historically lopsided advantage evaporate.
And she isn't even the one Jewish voters seem angriest at.
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The damage goes well beyond the governor's race, too. Democrats led the generic House ballot among New York's Jewish voters by 40 points in 2018 and 49 in 2022. The polling average this year has them up by just 13.
"Their lead has absolutely tumbled into the Hudson River among Jewish voters," Enten explained. "Yes, they are still ahead, but we are talking about historically strong numbers for Republicans among Jewish voters."
Then there's New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist whose hostility toward Israel has alienated much of the city's Jewish community. Statewide, Mamdani sits at a net positive eight among all voters, but he's underwater by 23 points among Jewish voters. Hochul, by contrast, actually does slightly better with Jewish voters than with the electorate as a whole.
"There is, when you look at this data, really little doubt in my mind that views towards Zoran Mamdani, a Democratic mayor of New York City, are definitely, in my mind, shifting views among Jewish voters on how they are going to say to vote," Enten said.
That shift could have real consequences in November. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) represents New York's 17th Congressional District, a seat with a large Jewish population that Kamala carried by less than a point. Prediction markets give Lawler a 39% chance of holding on, which makes him an underdog, but a live one in a year when Democrats are expected to dominate statewide.
Asked about the race, Enten said the fact that Lawler is competitive at all "is an indication that Jewish voters, if in fact they vote the way that the polls say, they may just save Mike Lawler's seat in Congress for him."
A bright spot for the GOP... In the state (NY) with the most Jewish voters, the GOP has historically strong midterm polling with them. Hochul's polling 38 pts worse among them than in 2022. On the House ballot, Dems are doing 36 pts worse. Mamdani's image is well underwater. https://t.co/QdTWPHjCDe
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 14, 2026
It's a fascinating thing to watch. Make no mistake about it, Democrats have clearly decided they no longer care about Jewish voters.
