I've been sick for the better part of a week, which means early bedtimes and sleeping in a bit later than normal. It also means I missed the news that Darlene Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), had won South Carolina's Republican Senate primary runoff until Wednesday morning. I’d been hoping that Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) would win, because he was clearly the more qualified candidate, and upon learning the news, I was disappointed—not so much by the results but by Republican voters who should have known better.
Look, I’m all for President Donald Trump and his agenda. But his endorsement of Graham rubbed me the wrong way from the start. I’m just not a fan of Senate seats being treated like family heirlooms.
But, hey, I gave her a chance. I waited for her to prove that she deserved a full term. The problem was that from where I sit, she failed to do that. She spent the campaign leaning on her brother's legacy instead of building one of her own, and it showed. Her debate against Norman was a disaster from start to finish, the kind of performance that usually sinks a candidate for good.
That should have finished her campaign.
Should have.
It didn't, because of President Trump. His endorsement meant nothing else mattered.
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten broke down exactly how much that endorsement mattered, and the figures are hard to argue with. "Donald Trump is still the sun on which the planets of the GOP revolve around," Enten said Wednesday morning. He pointed to a striking trend: since 2022, Trump-endorsed non-incumbent Senate candidates have won their primaries at a nearly perfect rate. "100 percent of the time, if Trump endorsed a non-elected incumbent, like Darline Graham, they, in fact, won the Republican primary for United States Senate," Enten said.
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The numbers before Trump stepped in tell the real story. According to the Kalshi prediction market, Graham’s odds of winning the runoff sat at just 14% before the endorsement landed. "Before the Trump endorsement it was just 14 percent," Enten said. "The reason why Darline Graham won that primary, won that nomination, is because of one name and one name only, Donald John Trump." Once Trump weighed in, her odds shot past 50%, and she won the nomination the next night.
CNN anchor John Berman noted just how directly Trump involved himself in the race. "He went there. He spent money. He made a difference," he said.
None of this happens without the sheer force of Trump's brand among Republican primary voters, and Enten had the polling to prove it. "A majority of Republicans, 53%, say he's the Republican president they most admire," Enten said. Reagan, long the GOP's gold standard, pulled just 18%. Abraham Lincoln, by most historical measures the greatest president in American history, came in at 8%.
SC serves as a reality check: Trump's still the sun around which the GOP revolves.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 26, 2026
Trump's endorsees for Senate have won 100% of the time in 2026. He pulled Graham who had little shot pre-endorsement over the finish line.
The GOP admires Trump far more than Reagan or Lincoln. pic.twitter.com/luujoUtX1Z
Graham won because Trump's name is worth more to GOP primary voters than any debate performance, any resume, or any argument about qualifications. I'm not entirely comfortable with that. As a party, we like to preach meritocracy. Yet Graham won this runoff despite giving voters no real evidence that she'd earned the job.
Trump's instincts about what moves Republican primary voters are hard to argue with, and Enten's numbers prove it. South Carolina Republicans nominated Graham because Trump asked them to. She never had to prove she was capable of the job in the first place.
