Things Keep Looking Better for the GOP in Arizona

Political experts have been saying that Arizona has been trending blue for a few years now, and it’s hard to deny that there’s truth to that.

While there are undeniably questions about the integrity of the 2020 presidential election, Arizona had been a reliably red state for years. With the exception of 1996, Arizona has voted Republican consistently since 1936. So we have to accept the fact that Arizona is now a battleground state.

But that doesn’t mean we have to write it off.

A new poll from The Trafalgar Group in collaboration with The Daily Wire shows that Republicans are not only very close to keeping Arizona’s governor’s seat but might also oust Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly.

The poll has Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake leading her Democratic opponent, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs 49.2% to 46.4%, which is within the margin of error. Still, Lake has led in the RealClearPolitics average since mid-September, and her chances look very good. Hobbs has come under fire for being afraid to debate Lake, and Lake has shown remarkable prowess in handling a hostile media. Former Democrat Rep. Tulsi Gabbard also endorsed her, which is bound to help her appeal with independents and maybe even some Democrats who feel their party has become too extreme.

Related: I’m Starting to Feel Good About Herschel Walker’s Chances — Here’s Why

I’m not the only one feeling better about Lake’s chances. PJM’s Stephen Kruiser, a Lake skeptic before the primary, is feeling optimistic too. “My skepticism quickly disappeared as soon as Lake won the primary and hit the campaign trail,” he wrote Wednesday morning. “Her career behind enemy lines in the mainstream media gives her an advantage that even veteran Republican politicians don’t enjoy. Lake knows how to handle them because she was them.”

But one race that didn’t look as promising was Republican Blake Masters’ campaign to oust Sen. Mark Kelly. Throughout the campaign, Masters has trailed Kelly, but the polls have tightened, and the Trafalgar Group/Daily Wire poll shows Kelly up only one point. Masters has likely benefited from a solid debate performance with Kelly, in which he effectively tied Kelly to Joe Biden, who is extremely unpopular in the state.

There are only a few weeks left before the elections, and the GOP has momentum right now. I’m already feeling better about Georgia, so hopefully, we’ll see Arizona work out as well.