VDH: Pollsters Have No Reputation After This Decade-Long Hatred Of Donald Trump.

So what were the pollsters trying to tell us or were they trying to manipulate? And I think it’s the latter. Larry Kudlow, for example, the former Fox business, I think he still is at Fox, he pointed out that when he examined the New York Times and the Washington Post polls, they were deliberately not counting people who surveyed that they were Trump voters in 2024.

That was half the country. They were only polling about a third. Think of that, a third of the people that said they voted for Trump, they polled.

Not half. So of course their results were going to be disputed or suspect. But here’s another thing.

There were analyses after each of the 2016, the 2020, and the 2024 elections about the accuracy of polls post-facto of the election. And we learned that they were way off in 2016. They said they had learned their lessons.

They were way off in 2020. They said they learned their lesson. And they were way off in 2024.

And why are they way off? Because liberal pollsters, and that’s the majority of people who do these surveys, believe that if they create artificial leads for their Democratic candidates, it creates greater fundraising and momentum. Kind of the herd mentality.

Joseph Campbell explores: How Trump can turn the tables on the pollsters.

Were he to choose a more focused, accountability-driven response, Trump could readily point to flawed poll results reported in the 2024 presidential campaign. Given that many of them erred in estimating the election outcome, he could pose a simple question: What makes them believable now?

Trump, in short, could argue pollsters have persistent credibility problems and point to vulnerabilities exposed in recent elections.

Traditionally, pre-election polls have been regarded as representing what George Gallup, a founding figure of survey research, called an “acid test” of the soundness of polling techniques. “The only justification of an election forecast,” Gallup once declared, “is to test polling methods.”

The late Philip Meyer, a well-regarded journalist, educator and past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, essentially agreed with Gallup’s characterization, noting: “A poll is an estimating device while an election is an exact measurement of the real world. By holding the device against the reality, we can learn how well the device is working.”

The reality revealed in the three most recent U.S. presidential elections was that pollsters were unable to measure with accuracy Trump’s popular backing. They collectively understated support for Trump in each election, despite having made methodological adjustments following the 2016 and 2020 campaigns — adjustments specifically intended to measure Trump’s popular backing more accurately.

Finally, in “Sins of omission,” Salena Zito explores the DNC-MSM hatred of Real Clear Politics’ aggregation of polls because they favored the Bad Orange Man:

In the final stretch of last year’s presidential election, the New York Times took a whack at RCP, suggesting its map showing Trump winning all seven swing states was inferior because it was using subpar polls.

“Overall, Trump has made slight gains in the national polling average over the past two weeks, and the battleground state polling averages have tightened,” the story read. “Still, the race remains uncommonly close.”

Unlike its competitors, RealClearPolitics does not filter out or weigh polls that its critics allege are “low quality.” RCP likes to say that “at RealClearPolitics, high-quality polls are accurate polls.” One of its pages displays a map of the Electoral College with a winner projected for each state, even those the site currently deems to be toss-ups.

The story then said that “influential accounts have been sharing screenshots of RealClearPolitics’ scarlet-dominated Electoral College map,” often pairing it with images of a betting average site showing Trump with a 65% chance of winning.

Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist and constant critic of RCP, said in the story that he believed that Republican-aligned pollsters were “flooding the zone” to shift the polling averages and deflate Democrats’ enthusiasm.

In the end, FiveThirtyEight had then-Vice President Kamala Harris with a 50-in-100 chance of winning the cycle. RCP had Trump winning six of seven battleground states. The New York Times implied that it had gamed to look better for Trump with “low-quality polling.” This isn’t hyperbole; it was in the headline that read: “Why the Right Thinks Trump Is Running Away With the Race.”

Two things appear to be happening here — the sin of omission by skipping over who the true inventor and innovator of the craft was and an effort to dismiss its competency and capability.

The job of a news organization is to attract an audience because its content is consistent in getting it right or pretty darn close*. The same is true of polling. It is one thing to question polling firms and say you don’t like their methodology or think they’re rigorous enough.

Well, that’s what the job of a news organization used to be. In the 21st century, that’s shifted somewhat:


OUT ON A LIMB: Crowdfunding alleged cold-blooded killers and racists — this is no way to fight a culture war.

Last month, Texas teenager Karmelo Anthony allegedly stabbed 17-year-old Austin Metcalf in the heart at a track meet when Metcalf asked the teen to leave a tent. Metcalf died at the scene. Anthony was arrested, admitted he stabbed him — and yet many rushed to his defense. Sides were drawn along racial lines and supporters have happily dumped over $526,000 into his family’s fundraiser while villainizing the victim in the comments.

Then last week, a video went viral of a Minnesota woman named Shiloh Hendrix unloading some “N” bombs on a man, who confronted her over using the same slur on a black toddler. She claimed the boy had rifled through her diaper bag. Hendrix, who was doxxed, has raised over $750,000 from folks using a grim “white lives matter” campaign.

Is it any wonder that a dim-witted Temple student would use this same method after it was revealed that he and his friends visited a Barstool Sports-owned joint and added a “F–k the Jews” sign to their bottle service? The student, Mohammed Khan, uploaded the video of the sign to his own account.

Related: An Entire Generation Has Turned Feral.

What can be done about them? Unfortunately, not much. Their brains are developed, and their habits are set. They grew up on social media, and they’re acting it out as adults. There’s no changing their behavior now. The only recourse left is in the legal system — enforcing law and order by arresting those responsible for these teen takeovers and prosecuting them for their crimes. But to prosecute someone, the police need to catch them. In most of our biggest cities, there aren’t enough cops to go around. The police departments in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Phoenix, Baltimore, and San Francisco have all reported officer shortages.

In the short term, moving away from these crime-ridden areas is the only solution. These teen takeovers have been going on for years and will continue for the foreseeable future. The only way to avoid them is to vote with your feet. In the long term, plenty can be done. Prioritize marriage. Bring back the stigma against out-of-wedlock birth and absentee fathers. Raise your kids without screens until they’re of legal age. Inculcate virtue during their eighteen years in the nest. Otherwise, we will continue to suffer the consequences and produce more feral kids.

As Jonah Goldberg liked to say, “cheer up, for the worst is yet to come.”

 

 

ED MORRISSEY: New: US Brokers Cease-Fire Between India, Pakistan.

Donald Trump hailed the agreement, while also noting the US role in bringing the brief war to a conclusion:

After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

This gives Marco Rubio his first major diplomatic victory as Secretary of State, and it is a doozy. India and Pakistan have fought a number of skirmishes over the disputed Kashmir region, and terrorists often attack with Kashmir as its premise. The most well-known of these groups is Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani radical-Islamist group that got some of its funding from Osama bin Laden. They have wanted a war of conquest to integrate Kashmir and Jammu into Pakistan. The government in Islamabad claim that L-e-T has disbanded, but that claim isn’t exactly credible, especially considering the Pakistani footsie-playing with radical Islamists in the region.

As Ed concludes:

Of course, this is only a cease-fire. Pakistan and India have secular hostility and disputes going all the way back to the British partition and independence, and religious disputes going back a millennia or more. Perhaps stepping this close to the brink will have sobered both governments up enough to at least settle the secular issues and remind Pakistan especially of the necessity to deal with its radical-Islamist problems. In the meantime, though, Rubio’s credibility and the leverage from American trade will both be on the rise.

Still though as Churchill apparently never said, jaw jaw is better than war war.

ALBERTA, NOT CANADA, FOR 51ST STATE: Few folks in either country took seriously President Donald Trump’s several quips about Canada becoming America’s 51st state and references to then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau.” But Liberal Party were sufficiently agitated that Trudeau’s successor, Mark Carney, should thank Trump.

As Rod Martin points out in the most intelligent analysis of the Canadian scene I’ve read in years, things might have turned out differently had Trump focused in on the real brewing crisis in Canada, the intensifying alienation of conservative voters in the western province of Alberta:

“Alberta doesn’t belong in this Canada.

“That’s not treason. It’s not even radical. It’s a simple observation of cultural, economic, and political reality — a reality growing starker by the year. Albertans have known for decades that something is deeply broken in the Confederation they were born into. But it’s only recently, as Ottawa’s indifference curdled into hostility, that many have begun asking the inevitable question: What if we left?”

Where would, should Albertans go? Go here and Martin will lay it out for all to see. If you aren’t following this guy, you should because he sees the world through clear eyes.

 

IT’S GOOD TO BE IN THE NOMENKLATURA: Newark Mayor Ras Baraka released after being arrested while protesting ICE detention facility he vowed to shut down.

Newark Mayor and New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Ras Baraka was released Friday night after being collared at the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facility that opened Tuesday — and which he has vowed to shut down.

Baraka was released around 7:50 p.m. to cheers from the large crowd of protesters and swath of public officials — including socialist Big Apple mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani.

* * * * * * * *

Video posted to X at just after 3 p.m. by a News 12 New Jersey reporter showed Baraka, with his hands cuffed behind his back, being led away from the detention center by a Homeland Security Investigations officer.

Baraka “committed trespass and ignored multiple warnings from Homeland Security Investigations to remove himself from the ICE detention in Newark, New Jersey this afternoon,” Alina Habba, the US Attorney for the District of New Jersey wrote on X five minutes later.

“He has willingly chosen to disregard the law. That will not stand in this state. He has been taken into custody,” Habba posted, adding “NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW.”

It came after Baraka and several New Jersey Democratic congresspeople — Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman, Rob Menendez and LaMonica McIver — showed up at the Delaney Hall ICE facility, calling for the GEO Group-owned facility to be shut down.

“We’re at Delaney Hall, an ICE prison in Newark that opened without permission from the city & in violation of local ordinances,” Coleman wrote in a post on X, along with pictures and videos of the scene.

“We’ve heard stories of what it’s like in other ICE prisons. We’re exercising our oversight authority to see for ourselves,” she wrote.

Habba claimed that Baraka was inside the facility, “was warned, was asked to leave several times,” but refused.

I’m so old, I can remember this sort of insurrection activity led to much much stiffer sentences than a few hours in the slammer.

Related: The Shady Bunch: Six Words We Won’t Be Hearing from Democrats Over the Next Four Years.

BYRON YORK: Joe Biden denies everything.

Former President Joe Biden and former first lady Jill Biden appeared this week on The View. If you had to boil it down to headlines, there would be two: First, the Bidens both denied reports of the former president’s senility or cognitive difficulties, and second, he blamed voter sexism and racism for the defeat of his designated successor, former Vice President Kamala Harris.

But there was a bigger story: In the act of denying reports of cognitive problems, Joe Biden virtually confirmed that those reports are accurate.

* * * * * * * * *

The other headline from The View was that Joe Biden blamed the alleged sexism and racism of voters for Harris’s defeat. It worked this way. Since Joe Biden claimed he left the country in great shape, how was it that his designated successor failed to win the election? “You had made the selfless and very difficult decision, I’m sure, to step aside, and Democrats were feeling optimistic about the vice president’s chances of winning the presidency,” panelist Sara Haines said to the former president. “But then election night came, and it was like 2016 all over again. Why do you think the vice president lost, and were you surprised?”

“I wasn’t surprised,” Joe Biden said. “Not because I didn’t think the vice president was the most qualified person to be president. She is. She’s qualified to be president of the United States of America. But I wasn’t surprised because they went the route of the — the sexist route, the whole route. I mean, this is a woman, she’s this, she’s that. I mean, it really — I’ve never seen quite as successful and a consistent campaign undercutting the notion that a woman couldn’t lead the country. And a woman of mixed race.”

In going on The View, and also doing an interview with the BBC, the former president was clearly hoping to get in front of the age and cognitive issue. But his fundamental problem is that he really was not up to the job of serving as president for a second term. That’s just a fact. Millions of people believed that, and it is unlikely that Joe Biden, who at least in the BBC interview seemed older than just a few months ago, can convince them otherwise.

This Daily Mail headline isn’t helping Sundown Joe’s case very much: Jill Biden gives Joe ‘Secret Signal’ to stop answering dangerous question on The View…as he sports mysterious hand wound.

So why is Joe making the media rounds so soon after leaving office? Report: Biden Family’s Financial Pipeline Has Run Dry.

AXIOS PHONES IT ON FETTERMAN:

Hey, you know else was also “uninterested in the day-to-day duties of a senator?”

After little more than a year in the Senate, Obama was bored, and began to take seriously the frequent calls to run for President.

“The Consequentialist,” Ryan Lizza, the New Yorker, April 25, 2011.

Flashback to November of 2022: MSNBC’s Katy Tur suggests Fetterman could run for president: ‘Makes you wonder about his future.’

What changed? Oh yeah: Will John Fetterman Be the First Casualty of the Left’s Civil War?

 

 

OPEN THREAD: mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. These are nice. Little Roquefort cheese morsels rolled in crushed nuts. Very tasty. Very subtle. It’s the way the dry sackiness of the nuts tiptoes up against the dour savor of the cheese that is so nice, so subtle, especially when attending that Radical Chic Open Thread at Lenny’s.