Well, looks like we lost the midterms. This isn’t the first time this has happened, and it won’t be the last. But now comes the wailing, the gnashing of teeth, the rendering of garments, and the Game of Thrones-length winter that will settle over the Republican mood.
Here I will offer two assessments.
First, don’t worry about a Democratic Congress. Why? Because they’ll blow it. They don’t have a veto-proof majority, so the smart thing to do would be to try and compromise with Republicans to get some common-sense legislation passed.
But they won’t do that. They’ll ram through bills to defund ICE, to stop the wall construction, to promote abortion, to protect failing schools, to glorify criminality and lawlessness, to sell out American workers to illegals, to pander to their Jihadi Caucus, and to protect creepy men who cheat in women’s sports and hang out in women’s bathrooms. And President Trump will veto every piece of articulated lunacy they place on his desk.
They’ll also waste their political capital pretty quickly by running endless investigations, and probably another impeachment or two, against President Trump. They’re already doing this. Less than 24 hours after their victory, Democrat lawmakers are already warning Trump to “Lawyer up.” Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) had one word: "Subpoenas." This is not what most Americans, even many Democrats, want to see the next two years spent on.
And the “moderate” voters will be reminded, yet again, that while Trump’s tweets may be mean, at the end of the day, his agenda is their agenda, and it makes more sense to vote based on policy, not hurt feelings. By November 2028, voters will be sick of Democrat fanaticism and obstructionism and will be primed to give newly-elected President Rubio or Vance a conservative legislature.
My second assessment is that we need to properly assess why we lost. I’m sure you’ve noticed by now that the Republican Party handles its midterm post-mortems very differently than the Democrat Party. When Republicans lose the midterms, the response of party leaders is to moderate our positions to be more likeable to moderates and centrist Democrats. It never works.
When Democrats lose the midterms, the response of party leaders is to triple down on crazy. Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn’t. But the point is that they don’t budge an inch on anything. And when they eventually do win, they credit it to having tripled down on crazy.
We can blame low voter turnout, but the fact is that voters need a reason to turn out. There are two main arguments that always determine whether or not Republicans show up to vote. One argument is to hold your nose and vote for the RINOs and nancy boys, on the premise that their lukewarm-at-best support is still preferable to letting the Alphabet People run the show. The other argument is to make a stand on principle, to not vote the RINOs back in over and over again because losing an election is the only way to get rid of them for good, and that next election we’ll run candidates who possess courage and conviction.
I hear the arguments on both sides, and they are both valid. And this midterm election, the second argument won the day.
If I could offer a single piece of advice to the Trump administration, it would be this: Finish off the ayatollahs and the IRGC. What could and should have been a Venezuela 2.0 last spring has devolved into a No-Fly-Zone-Over-Iraq 2.0 with our naval blockade, tit-for-tat strikes, and no end in sight. Forget a “deal” and eradicate this cancer once and for all. This focus on trying to bargain with these sociopaths is, to me, inexplicable. And it probably kept enough Republicans away from the voting booth yesterday.
But let’s see the silver lining behind all this. Let’s use these two years as an opportunity. We’ve cleaned house of Tom Tillis, Bill Cassidy, Thomas Massie, Susan Collins, and John Fitzpatrick. They took the walk of shame after failing to learn the lessons of Ben Sasse, Lynne Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, and Justin Amash. For the moment, John Thune and Lisa Murkowski remain, but the message the Republican leaders should be hearing is clear: The path to victory lies not in moving to the center or colluding with Democrats; the path to victory lies in growing a spine and legislating with the same devotion to conservatism as you campaigned on.
President Trump instinctively knows this. His message this morning was one of defiance, with one White House official stating, "Trump's resolve to fight Democrats will only grow stronger. Buckle up." Good. A Bush or a Romney would have rolled over and played Good Infidel.
For now, the left is taking a brief respite from rioting and burning and shooting to celebrate. Let them. They’ve won a pyrrhic victory, nothing more. They’ll whoop and holler about the death of MAGA, about democracy and tolerance and accountability and everything they don’t actually believe in. They’ll veer hard to the left, they'll refuse to appoint Trump’s judicial and cabinet picks, and everything will be deadlocked for two years. But is that any different than what’s been happening for the last two years?
The left will show the country who they really are. There won't be much about health care or climate change. There will be a lot about illegals, the LGBTQ clown car, and the global intifada. Trump and the Republican minority will correctly be seen as the last line of defense holding back the leaking dam of lunacy. If we play the optics right, if we elect strong candidates for the next election, and if we don’t get in the way of the Democrats making fools of themselves, we’ll be in a good position for 2028.
The saying goes that things get worse before they get better. Well, things just got worse. But they will get better.
In the meantime, make the peace and tell the truth.
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