Get The Hell Out
[NOTE: This post was written and published Saturday night, 48 hours before New York City was inundated. It's now getting some retrospective attention, driven in part by my subsequent criticisms of Mayor Bloomberg (which this post proves are not based on unfair 20/20 hindsight). So I've tacked on a "POST-STORM UPDATE" to the end of this post, adding context, trying to fully elucidate my position, and explaining why the fact that Bloomberg did, finally, order a belated Zone A evacuation on Sunday isn't enough to insulate him from the criticisms I made on Saturday. Please read the post-storm update before you start an argument with me about how I'm wrong, because the update most likely addresses the point you were thinking of making. Better yet, instead of arguing with me, donate to the Red Cross. I'm going to go do that now.
And now, for the original post, as written Saturday...]
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Being up in Wyoming with my older girls, away from my computer, I have limited information about Sandy right now. But from what I’m seeing on Twitter, it appears: 1) the computer models indicate that the threat of a catastrophic storm surge in New York City has increased, and is a VERY real (though, of course, not certain) threat; and 2) Mayor Bloomberg has affirmatively decided NOT to evacuate even the most low-lying areas of his vulnerable city, nor even to close the city government or schools Monday.
If I have all of that right, it makes no damn sense at all.
Bloomberg’s error here could be even worse than that of Ray Nagin, who merely delayed too long, but who at least did ultimately give the obviously necessary evacuation order. It’s also hard to square Bloomberg’s inaction with his proactive — and correct — actions in advance of Irene. Perhaps he’s now gun-shy because of ignorant hindsight 20/20 criticisms of that “unnecessary” evacuation. If so, he’s a damn fool, along with those who criticized him then for an evacuation that was fully justified by contemporaneous information.
In any case, if I lived in a “Zone A” or “Zone B” area of NYC, I’d get the hell out, tonight. (Or tomorrow, if I could easily travel by foot to my non-flood-prone destination.) It’s not even a close call. Same goes for any other location in the cone of uncertainty that’s vulnerable to a potential (not certain–it’s never certain–but realistic potential) storm surge of 6-10 feet, plus very high surf on top of that, at astronomical high tide.
Ugh.
If I’m missing or misunderstanding something here, let me know. (For what it’s worth, I’m seeing plenty of meteorologists on Twitter saying the same thing. They’re baffled by Bloomberg’s decision. So am I.)
UPDATE: I’ve now seen and read Bloomberg’s statement. It’s even worse than I thought. He said:
We are not ordering any evacuations as of this time for any parts of the city. We’re making that decision based on the nature of this storm. Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it is not expected to be a tropical storm or hurricane-type surge. With this storm, we’ll likely see a slow pileup of water rather than a sudden surge, which is what you would expect from a hurricane, and which we saw with Irene 14 months ago.
So it will be less dangerous – but make no mistake about it, there will be a lot of water and low-lying areas will experience flooding. The City’s Departments of Transportation and Environmental Protection will be deployed throughout the city to address flooding conditions.
Let me be clear: I have literally no f***ing idea what Bloomberg is talking about. As closely as I’ve been following Sandy, I have not seen anyone else — literally not a single meteorologist or any other person — suggest that Sandy will produce a “slow pile up of water” rather than a typical “sudden” storm surge. On the contrary, AccuWeather’s Mike Smith writes:
“So it will be less dangerous.” We don’t know that to be the case. The latest barometric pressure associated with Sandy is 960 mb. It is forecast to drop to 937 mb when it is south of NYC (see posting below from 11:40pm CDT). With a pressure that low the winds and surge could be very comparable to a hurricane. It would be an all-time record low for the region, hurricane or not.
All storm surges are, in their initial stages, somewhat slow, gradual pile-ups of water … which then rapidly peak when the storm’s center moves ashore. That’s exactly what’s to be expected here. Bloomberg’s idea of a uniquely slow drip-drip-drip surge doesn’t even make logical sense, and has no scientific basis that I’ve heard anyone articulate. Is he high? Has he lost is mind? I am simply stunned and baffled by this ignorant pronouncement, which will cause people to become complacent, and thus endanger lives.
Can New Jersey please annex New York City so we can get Chris Christie in there to fix this? Good lord.
Perhaps Bloomberg is confused by the National Hurricane Center’s hotly debated nomenclature decision to not use the terms “Hurricane Warning” and “Tropical Storm Warning” north of the Virginia/North Carolina border, choosing instead to use “High Wind Warning” because they expect Sandy to transition to an extratropical storm just before landfall — even though Sandy is a hurricane now and will be bringing hurricane-like conditions to the shore. (If you can’t tell, I disagree with the decision. Almost everyone in the meteorological and weather-nerd community seems to.)
Whatever Bloomberg’s rationale, he’s just absolutely dead wrong, as noted by The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore and Bryan Norcross (who calls Bloomberg’s press conference “incomprehensibly inexplicable”), The Wall Street Journal’s Eric Holthaus, New York Fox 5′s Nick Gregory, WeatherBell’s Ryan Maue (“Bloomberg has baffled everyone with his bizarre press conference”), and many others.
Indeed, let me quote Norcross a little more extensively, to fully explain the problem here:
[Norcross & more after the jump.]
I live in NYC…perplexed by this decision! I agree GET OUT NOW!
Even worse, expect NYC subways to shut down some time on Sun. GET OUT NOW or rusk being trapped. Not many ways out of Coney Island….
Give Hizzoner a break, please.
This man of the people has been exhausting himself (and everyone else) trying to get people to stop drinking SuperSize soft drinks (not to mention supporting mosques at Ground Zero).
That doesn’t leave a lot of time or energy for really minor stuff like monster storm surges.
(I also think he’s tired of being mayor. Such decisions may help him out in that department.)
a) Bloomberg is a boss, not a leader
b) He’s probably already in Bermuda
Maybe the Midget Mayor wants all the fatties, the smokers, the donut eaters to be washed away in a cleansing storm, leaving only poached wild salmon eating thin attractive
bicycle pant wearing Eloise.
Bloomberg diddles why New York drowns.
Prediction: in two days, NYC will be underwater, the mayor and the governor will declare a state of emergency, President Obama will send in FEMA and even make a personal visit, and the network news will be wall-to-wall coverage as the President once again campaigns against President Bush.
Benghazi? Who has time for that?
The best solution is to take public transportation (either the subway or the bus system) if the water threatens. Oops, the Mayor just ordered them closed at effective 7pm tonight.
Ah the glories of living in big (liberal run) city where governmnt will take care of you. When push comes to shove they leave you on your own. How the dickens do you evacuate if you don’t own a car?
Why is it that I can see the Obama Regime and the Democrat mayors and governors in the BoWash Axis of Evil colluding to use this overblown fall storm as an excuse to delay the election or extend voting time in the reliably Democrat areas?
The media catastrophizes and politicizes every weather event in the Country. The Weather Channel never misses the opportunity to both catastrophize events and blame them on global warming, or whatever they call it this week. In any event, Bloomberg just announced, 11AMish EST, the desired evacuation of whatever Area A is as well as school closure on Monday and a transit system shutdown tonight. Sounds like we’re going to need more time for Democrat voter fraud, so BOHICA!
Marie Antoinette: Let them eat cake.
Michael Bloomberg: Let them drown in water.
Let’s be clear (as our current Presidente would say) — Mayor Goonturd is the biggest RINO (Republican In Name Only) in the history of earth. I’m sure Mitt’s folks are tempted to step in and just pre-empt this insanity, if for no other reason than the MSM will try to find a way to hang this on Romney — and Dubya, for that matter. But Mitt should refrain. Give Swoonbird enough rope and he’ll hoist himself on his own petard. I pray for the brave people of NYC who have been through so much these past 11 years and trust they’ll follow their instincts instead of Mayor Loonword. Stay safe, all of you…
Someone tell Bloomberg that the storm contains trans-fats, THEN he’ll do something.
Does NYC have emergency shelters? Does it have a school bus system that can be used to evacuate its citizens? Why can’t transit buses be used during the critical hours before the storm and tides hit? Does it even have an emergency evacuation plan for contingencies like this or terrorist attacks.
Why is the city so ill prepared for an emergency?
“Why is it that I can see the Obama Regime and the Democrat mayors and governors in the BoWash Axis of Evil colluding to use this overblown fall storm as an excuse to delay the election or extend voting time in the reliably Democrat areas?”
Because you’re an idiot who hates a single part so much you let your rage blind you from the truth?
No, Smith Kennedy, you lefty idiot, I don’t hate a single part, I hate the whole treasonous Democrat Party and all the lefty useful idiots that support them. I’m not one of the nice Republicans; I’d put you all out bringing in the harvests on 1000 calories a day.
This story needs updating. Zone A evacuation has subsequently been ordered. It’s mandatory.
NP, the subway can be bailed out using the soon-to-be-useless 20 oz. drink cups.
Actually, this is the perfect opportunity for people to do what they should be doing all along: deciding whether to do something based on reason, rather than government coercion.
Yeah, but he is deploying his Department of Environmental Protection – so he’s got that going for him.
Storm surge is like inflation or bankruptcy, slowly at first then all of a sudden. Have seen it up close andpersonal when i was a brig guard on the Charleston Navy base for Hugo. 14 feet worth. The building i was in was 200ft from the Cooper river and the entire first floor was under water, the second floor had a couple of feet, lucky we were in a three story building.
Certainly [sointunly dese) these know-it-all-been-there-done-that-attitude Noo Yawkuhs don’t need no Mayah to tell ‘em what to f*****g need to do.
Try a few idiot mayors for manslaughter and things will improve.
Mayor Bloomberg is certainly as responsible as those Italian seismologists…
My family and I were in NYC (midtown) for a weekend trip and left Sunday morning. There was absolutely no sense of urgency or even preparation when we left from Penn Station around 10 AM. When we got back to our home outside DC, the media was full of alarm and telling people to get ready. Complete contrast.
I live well into zone B, in Rosedale, Queens and we experienced serious flooding here. On Monday night the street turned into a river, and our cars were submerged to their hoods. The water flooded many homes. This has never even come close to happening before. Nothing happened here with Irene.