Sandy Now a Hurricane, and a Serious U.S. Threat
Tropical Storm Sandy was upgraded to a hurricane at 11:00 AM Eastern Time, and its central pressure has dropped another 5 millibars in the 90 minutes since the last reading, indicating a rapidly strengthening storm. Thankfully, Sandy will soon run out of time to strengthen further. Unfortunately, the reason for this is that Hurricane Sandy is nearing landfall in Jamaica, where the impact will be worsened by the storm’s ongoing intensification — all else being equal, strengthening hurricanes are more damaging than weakening or steady-state hurricanes of the same stated intensity at landfall.
After Jamaica, Sandy will briefly re-emerge over water, but will then hit eastern Cuba. By the time it emerges from its passage over Cuba, the upper-level wind shear will have increased, likely preventing much further strengthening — at least as a pure warm-core tropical system. (More in a moment on what I mean by that.) All things considered, it is unlikely Sandy will, in its purely tropical phase, ever be worse than a Category 1 hurricane.
However, after Sandy crosses Jamaica and Cuba, things get really interesting — and dangerous — because the atmospheric setup is uniquely conducive for Sandy to become a bizarre and, possibly, extremely destructive hybrid storm, injecting its tropical moisture, warm core, and low barometric pressure into a dynamic atmospheric situation involving a diving upper-level trough, driven by the jet stream, and the resulting clash between warm and very cold air. We could end up with a “subtropical hurricane” — a category that isn’t even supposed to be able to exist — bashing the U.S. East Coast with fierce wind, rain and surge, while its back side produces extremely heavy snow over the northern Appalachians. It would be like a nor’easter on steroids.
This computer model forecast map tweeted by Dr. Ryan Maue, shows the temperature contrast well. This is not something you would see with a typical hurricane.
Dr. Jeff Masters believes Sandy has the potential to be a billion-dollar disaster for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic:
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 – 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor’easter, becoming the so-called “Perfect Storm” that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.
Depending on Sandy’s eventual track, strength and structure — all of which are very much in flux right now — there is some potential for this storm to bring a real nightmare scenario to the highly vulnerable New York City region, with storm surge and extremely high surf getting funneled into the harbor (at astronomical high tide, no less!). This is just a hypothetical at this point, and it probably won’t happen precisely that way, but it’s concerning to me that the scenario is on the table, and is one of many reasons that Sandy bears watching.
Not to get all Nate Silver on you, but it’s important to recognize and articulate the vast uncertainties here. There are a variety of scenarios in play, ranging from good (out to sea!) to bad to very bad to potentially catastrophic, but there are also an enormous number of variables, particularly in a dynamic and highly unusual atmospheric environment like this. Geoff Fox, an excellent TV meteorologist at Connecticut’s one major news station based on the coastline, WTNH Fox affiliate, WTIC, gets at this in his latest blog post:
Here’s my problem with Sandy. I can look at all the computer runs and sense something’s wrong. Too many things are happening I’ve never seen before. You’d think in nearly 30 years here I’d seen it all.
I spoke to Bob Hart on my way home. He’s a professor at FSU. No one knows more about tropical weather. … Bob said there were some storms in the 1800s that produced what is Sandy’s worst case scenario.
There’s a reason stuff like this happens infrequently. A huge number of conditions must come into alignment. If one or two aren’t as forecast it all goes to hell! With Sandy this far away in time and distance there’s no parameter that’s not suspect. …
We talked about the weaknesses of models. … Tropical systems are really small compared to the weather we most often see. The computer models are often too coarse to understand the complexity of these tightly wound storms that mathematically can fall between the cracks.
Dr. Masters thinks, or at least hopes, the computer models will start to get a better handle on Sandy soon:
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy’s heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy’s rains won’t affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm – 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution.
Stay tuned. I’ll be tweeting about Sandy as well at @brendanloy. (Fair warning: most PJM readers may not care for my political tweets. If so, just ignore those, and look for the hurricane-related tweets. 
)
AFTER THE JUMP: Sandy’s potential impact on the presidential election.
Is there a potential tornado outbreak possible in that worst case scenario. That strong of a temperature contrast along with high wind shear and high low-level vorticity potentials could result in some damaging tornadoes, much like with Hugo did to inland SC/NC in ’89.
John, I asked your question of Geoff Fox, the Connecticut meteorologist I quoted above, via Twitter. His response: “There is too much forecast on forecast on forecast on forecast to make that a question anyone should answer today.”
In other words, it’s too soon to know. There are way too many variables at this point.
The projected tracks for Sandy produced by the various models NOAA uses have all but one showing Sandy going out into the middle of the North Atlantic.
I know that this, like all storms should be watched, but aren’t we getting a little crazy with this? What is with the apocalyptic tone?
On the other hand this would give large, metropolitan areas in the NE a chance to see just how swell, fine and dandy the federal government is in responding to a disaster… which is not at all. Yes Obama would try to ‘play it up’ but, lets face it, when you are without power for a week and the promised ‘stimulus’ was meant to shore up the infrastructure and it hasn’t been shored up, then just what is anyone to think about the guy at the top and his promises?
This isn’t a tsunami from the Cumbre Vieja coming in, but a larger than normal storm for this time of year which can be much worse due to the seasonal changes and climactic conditions than is normally expected. Even with major power black-outs, that will not stop an election although it may require paper ballots in some districts and allow voting to continue on for an extra day in the worst hit areas, thus delaying tabulation of the vote.
The federal government has YET to act swiftly, competently and with any idea of the scope of a disaster when it goes in, and those for relatively delimited areas in FL and the Gulf Coast. Lets give everyone an up-close and personal look in the most populated Blue Corridor of the Nation just what their billions of dollars now yield in disaster prep from the US federal government. Looking as ‘Presidential’ as you want doesn’t do you a bit of good when there is no power to an area and they can’t see your act… they see your results and results count as do lack of same.
alittlesense, I’m not sure which models you are looking at, but as stated in my new post, the consensus has shifted, and it is no longer true that most models (or at least, most reliable models) have Sandy as an out-to-sea “fish” storm. It now appears more probable — not yet certain, but more probable — that Sandy will have some sort of coastal impact. It’ll be a while before we have a clear idea what, when and where. But the “fish” scenario is becoming less and less likely.
As for “apocalyptic tone,” I am trying very hard to include numerous caveats (“possibly,” “potentially,” etc.) and make explicitly and repeatedly clear that there is great uncertainty, and many possible scenarios — while at the same time expressing the fact that we are staring down realistic worst-case scenarios that would be quite bad. I’m not including those caveats merely to hedge my bets; I’m including them because they are essential to understanding the current forecast reality. We don’t yet know what will happen. But, given the unique features of this particular storm and its environment, it is realistically possible (though by no means certain) that something quite bad will happen. I think people need to know both of those things.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_ensmodel.html
alittlesense
The early models did have Sandy pushed out to sea, but now most of them are lining up towards the ECMWF solution, which is a direct strike on the Northeast. The apocalyptic tone is because meteorologists have no idea what the hell will happen when the upper-level trough merges in with the tropical storm; but in the worst case scenario, it could result in a multi-billion dollar disaster and knocking out power for millions of people.
We hope that the current model solutions are wrong and that Sandy will be kicked out to sea, but always be prepared for the worst. You don’t want to be caught off guard and unprepared in a situation like this.
These….”computer models” ……make me uneasy. How does a computer programmer learn to use a keyboard to “model” something in constant, evolving flux?….then to make a prediction presumably also using historical data ….to be effective for several days in the future, combining all of this constantly changing theoretical musing? ….and then have it be accurate?
It all seems so very circular…feeding upon itself…..no snarkiness intended.
No wonder the insurance companies are nervous.
I’m pretty sure that the effect of the moon on tides is at its greatest at new moon and least at full moon because the full mooon is pulling in opposition to the sun. When the moon is new, it is pulling with the sun behind it, increasing the gravitational effect.
No, Dippy. Astronomical high tides occur at both new moon and full moon. Astronomical low tides occur at first- and third-quarter moon.
That said, I believe you’re correct that new moon tides are slightly higher than full moon tides. But both are considered “astronomical high tides,” as they are much higher than the mean tide.
Lower turnout?
Geez.
The worst case scenario is Obama declaring emergency, suspended the electoral process (to “assure a fair competition later on, after the emergency”) and installing a de facto government (“we will not repeat the same Bush errors with Katrina”) and there you have it.
As a third world banana republic survivor, that’s my assessment of the worst for you.
Don’t want be all snarky northeasters, but this New Orleans guy can’t help but smirk given our recent history. I will absolve my guilt feelings with some important advice:
Power will be out for an entire week at least. Isaac gained strength as it came ashore and we thought it was just a slight nuisance (cocktail) storm. Weeel it was a real b-tch in that it sat in one place for over 12-13 hours dumping rain and blowing over huge trees.
Temps, happily won’t be in the 90′s as they were here, so sleeping without ac is probably not a problem.
Stock plenty of Ice and water, you’ll need it.
Stock plenty of booze, beer and wine. After dealing with family members at close, bored quarters, you’ll need it.
Generators are worth it, those refridgerators are mucho necessary, but the noise from those things are obnoxious. (your neighbors generator is more obnoxious than yours for some reason)
Fill your bathtub with water to use to flush the toilet if you need to.
Hope this helps.
Actually I don’t wish this ordeal on anyone.
So, as a guy who is supposed to fly into Brunswick GA on Friday, along with several of my team mates — it is a pretty prudent move to rearrange the schedule? While I’d hate to call off something and have a sunny day (albeit with high surf), I’m more inclined to think that the locals will be emergency mode, and air travel will be iffy?
We had a freak snowstorm up here this very week last year. It caused all sorts of problems, since the snow was very wet and heavy, and weighed down and snapped branches which barely started shedding its leaves. Power outtages and no heat for days. So is this going to be an annual event now? Ugh.
Joanne W. — yes, it is a sure sign of “global warming.” At least that’s what $107 billion of US Gov’t tax money was spent to study.
Harold Ambler: Possible effects of Hurricane Sandy:
7. President Obama having to tend to a national emergency in the run-up to the election
BWAAAAHAAAAHAAAA! Yeah, like that would happen. Thanks for the laugh Harold.
Me: “I suspect, if Sandy continues to look like a big potential problem…we’ll soon start to see conspiracy theories suggesting that Obama will try to delay the election because of the storm.”
X: “The worst case scenario is Obama declaring emergency, suspended the electoral process (to ‘assure a fair competition later on, after the emergency’) and installing a de facto government (‘we will not repeat the same Bush errors with Katrina’) and there you have it.”
That was quick.
The president does not have the authority to unilaterally suspend the electoral process. A federal law, 3 U.S.C. § 1, states: “The electors of President and Vice President shall be appointed, in each State, on the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November, in every fourth year succeeding every election of a President and Vice President.” That law is specifically authorized by the Constitution (“The Congress may determine the Time of choosing the Electors”). It would therefore take an act of Congress to make an exception. That means, of course, that President Obama can’t do anything without Republican support.
Now, perhaps you’ll say “but President Obama has shown before that he’s a lawless president, he has no respect for the constitution or federal statutes, he’ll run roughshod over that law just like he ignored immigration law,” etc. etc. I don’t agree with any of that, as I think it’s based on blatantly factually inaccurate (though no doubt sincere) misinterpretations of his past actions — but, for the sake of argument, let’s suppose that Obama is indeed lawless, and would indeed blatantly ignore 3 U.S.C. § 1, and Article II, Section I of the Constitution, if he could get away with it. Even assuming this, as a practical matter he can’t, because the election apparatus is administered at the state and local level, in many states by Republicans. It would be total chaos if Obama simply ordered, without legal authority, all the states to move their election days back a few weeks or a month or whatever. Many states wouldn’t comply, creating a constitutional crisis that would ultimately be resolved by an Electoral College dispute in the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. Similarly, if he only ordered certain states (like those with Democratic election officials, as I imagine most of the potentially affected northeastern states probably are) to move back their election days, he’d face the prospect of a certain legal challenge to the validity of the electoral slates from those states, given the blatant violation of the requirement that all states select their presidential electors on the same day. He would ultimately be virtually guaranteed to lose such a challenge, because, again, the GOP-controlled House of Representatives would have the final say, and thus the ability to reject those disputed electoral slates.
There is absolutely no way this can happen, unless there is somehow bipartisan consensus that it should. Obama cannot force the issue, and if he tried, it would be the end of his presidency. Tinfoil hats off, please.
Electronic voting machines do not function without electricity. So if the power is out, in the state of N.Y.at least, none of us will be voting.
@Dave
“So if the power is out, in the state of N.Y.at least, none of us will be voting.”
You say that like it’s a bad thing.
@Dave, I guess you best be hoping that your elections people haven’t scrapped the whole old-fashioned paper ballot apparatus then, huh? Sometimes, there’s something to be said for the old-fashioned way of doing things. Pencil and paper don’t need electricity to work.
If you’re in the way Best advice I’ve seen yet. All the extras can be used later if the hurricane goes away. Including the board-up info. (Nor-easters – could be handy.)
Bush’s fault.
(Just wanted to be the first to say it.)
i predict if this thing does do significant damage to the mainland, it will be 2 weeks before the kenyan quits blaming the damage on bush.
Hurricane Sandy may gain more energy or dryer air introduced to its epicenter/ eye and poof.. but a moderate-occasional strong rainmaker.
The models have moved Hurricane Sandy HUNDREDS of miles either way within 24 hours of each update for goodness sake!
The MRF models seem quite representative whereas Mass-Maine will be the likely scenario at present time (!) for Sandy to provide rain whereas a huge omega block set up may from the N- ESE U.S. may indeed ‘save’ the SE-E coast from the rainmaker by it’s eastern side trough.
When/if Sandy moves into the trough’s path it’ll get cooler/ strengthening air. Though there’s so many hypotheticals it’s truly a guessing game at this point.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=mrf201&TIME=2012102400®ION=G205&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=sknt&F2=none&C1=div&C2=tmpc&VEC=awnd
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=mrf201&TIME=2012102400®ION=G205&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=sknt&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=tmpc&VEC=swnd
The MM5 charts are quite reliable as well though again it’s truly too soon to say/ use.
https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/weather/met/met_home.html
As for Geoff Fox, I’m sure he’s a nice t.v. weatherman. Though he’s but another Communications grad. David Letterman may as well get back into the weather biz..
And wunderground’s Jeff Masters, guy has been a vocal AGW proponent for sometime. Not to mention the wunderground website stated support for, ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ to be seen/ taught in classrooms.
I dropped underground long before then and use far better & politically neutral weather sites, respectively.
@Brendan Loy ( 17 )
Of course, it wouldn’t be possible, in a civilized country with leaders respectfully of the Constitution. Also, of course, I think you’re right that it would decant into civil unrest or so.
On the other hand, I don’t think Mr. O. is very respectfully of the Constitution and that good old principle, the “Rule of Law”. I think the POTUS has quite the mindset of the banana republics I know very well, so even if he really doesn’t do it, I think he would consider to do it. If Nature hits really hard, I think they would start openly talking about it – just to see if they can get away with it.
Paul, you’re wrong about Geoff Fox. He has a degree in meteorology from Mississippi State University, and is certified by the American Meteorological Society. He’s a TV meteorologist, not “just” a TV weatherman. I watched him growing up and I’d say he was the best TV meteorologist in Connecticut. We usually watched the local news on the CBS affiliate, WFSB, but when major storms threatened, we’d flip to the ABC affiliate, WTNH, where Geoff Fox used to work, specifically to see his forecasts. He knows what he’s talking about.
Dry air entrainment seems fairly unlikely from what I can see. Indeed, Dr. Masters — who, whatever your concerns about his global warming beliefs, is a fine meteorologist when it comes to weather (not the same thing as climate) — just noted that “there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain” because there is a 5-degrees-above-normal warm water anomaly off the East Coast right now (and no, that’s not some sort of AGW code word, it’s just a local ocean temperature condition — a meteorological fact on the ground, not a modeled prediction of any kind). The side of the storm where the winds are offshore might see some dry-air entrainment around or after landfall, but dry air does not appear likely to be an obstacle to development well offshore, as it was with Isaac, for instance.
The fact that “the models have moved Hurricane Sandy HUNDREDS of miles either way within 24 hours of each update” is not something to be astounded at. “For goodness sake,” the storm is still 5-7 days away. Of course the models are all over the place. That’s exactly what one would expect, particularly with such an unusual and dynamic atmospheric situation. Nobody is suggesting that any particular model run should be taken as gospel, nor denying the uncertainty. Indeed, I’ve repeatedly and explicitly stated that, as you put it, “there’s so many hypotheticals it’s truly a guessing game at this point,” so we certainly have no disagreement there. So I guess I’m not quite sure what you’re arguing against.
By the way, you may have missed this, but I specifically quoted and linked to Harold Ambler, someone who shares your views on global warming, but who agrees that this storm is a big deal.
This has nothing to do with AGW. My post cites both skeptics and believers. It doesn’t matter. We’re just talking about a specific storm. Weather, not climate.
I take back what I said about dry air. Dr. Bryan Norcross: “Just to the west of Sandy there is a robust dip in the subtropical (southern branch) jet stream that is pulling down dry air. In fact, some of that dry air is already affecting the west and south side of the circulation.”
I should have looked at the water vapor imagery before I spouted off.
Again I’m sure Mr, Fox is a nice weatherman. Though there’s a big difference between meteorologists, climatologists in the field, elements to those who drastically change their forecast between morning, mid-morning, afternoon and so on when station’s news airs throughout the day.
The AMS seal, I too was an AMS and NWA member. Many weather people are. Take a competency test, it’s reviewed. You’re then paying dues and attend monthly/ semi-monthly etc., meetings. Dependent upon that chapter’s availability.
Though I don’t believe the NWA required a test if I recall correctly.
In Colorado I grew up with Mike Nelson (and have a weather book he’d written years back that’s excellent in many respects) and met Kathy Sabine in the early 00′s, respectively.
Great, intelligent people though they hardly standby their weather assessment mere hours later during significant weather events.
And what I’d meant earlier by, ‘in the field’ are those who have been in the thick of things. Where efficient and unscheduled busyness is the norm.
Military, those overseas. The fighter pilots, cargo and recon aircraft carrying personnel and a myriad of other essentials who expect concise weather briefs for their flights, air/ cargo and munition drops, air refueling etc.,
Often times gathering meager weather information from their remote site with little and/ or dated weather equipment etc., Storm chasers, onsite weather reporters who’ve come up the ranks.
Heck, yours and TWC’s Jim Cantore is a ‘weather rock star’!
Anything but a cozy, controlled and little expectation of a t.v. weather office.
I’m WELL aware of MSU and their Distance Learning Programs.
I assisted NWS colleagues obtaining their BS from MSU and St. Louis Univ. respectively. With each school containing no lab work nor classroom attendance whatsoever.
I’m old school, man. I don’t believe it can replace a hands-on, classroom type environment.
Obumbles will stop at NOTHING to keep himself in power and the gravy train rolling along for himself and his masters.
It now looks like he is in the process of unleashing yet another HAARP attack on the USA mainland for political reasons.
How much easier will it be to rig election results when a major man-made storm wipes out the outdated & fragile power grids of the entire east coast?
It will even seem acceptable for him to declaire his long saught after martial law & suspending the elections until he can declaire himself the winner.
Obummer will not rest until he gets his title of king of amerikka, then ruler of the planet via the UN.
To #21, Kathy Kinsley,
Link doesn’t work for me – I am assuming that’s the case for all…
The best case scenario for conservatives is a storm that causes lots of inconvenience without much long-term destruction. Super duper best case would be bad weather focused on urban areas in the afternoon of election day. Imagine a weather that reduces afternoon turnout in Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Detroit, for example. Would that make the weather racist?
I voted in the morning of the first day of early voting and encouraged my conservative friends to do the same. Never know what unexpected event could make voting difficult if you wait until the last minute.
Awwww, man! The imagery I saw yesterday got my hopes up we were in for a spot of urban blight removal from just south of DC to Boston!
Whatta disappointment. Maybe I could petition under Kelo for eminent domain to produce a much more economically valuable (which is to say less economically destructive) cow or horse pasture… with extra room for the hay, corn and oat fields. Think of all the evacuation teams, demolition crews, toxic waste removal, and environmental restoration people we could employ! Talk about “shovel ready”!
Everybody wins… except for a few corrupt pols whose “constituents” would be removed out from under their thumbs to healthier climes. Good times!
:B-)
Keep remembering that Obama was elected by only 30% of registered voters. There was a 58% turnout and of the people who actually voted, 52% voted for Obama. Multiply 0.58 and 0.52 and you get 0.30. Just 30% of registered voters saddled us with Obama. Forget about the polls and just vote.
Obama doesn’t need a storm to win since he is leading in the Electoral College and can easily reach 270. It’s the Romney team that needs a Sandy to help them win. Why would Obama need a Sandy to win when most of the states impacted by the storm are already blue or Obama is leading. NY, PA, Maryland, DE, Ohio, Connecticut, Mass..If people can’t vote in this area, which are densely populated, I think it’s fair to say there should be some way to accomodate them to allow votes counted. Why is it the Republicans seem to work on theories that prevent votes from counting? I would think if you want fair elections in Iraq, you would want the same for your own country.