This is exactly the nightmare scenario that has kept policymakers awake at night since the Syrian civil war began.
Last Wednesday, Syria fired a mortar shell that hit a Turkish border town, killing 5 civilians. Since then, both sides have exchanged artillery fire as Prime Minister Erdogan promised that Turkey would defend its people:
“One time is an accident … but how can this be an accident, when it happens eight times?” Erdogan said.
“The Turkish republic is a state capable of defending its citizens and borders. No country should dare test our determination on this,” he warned.
Syria has ignored that warning and fired another barrage into Turkey today.
Both Syria and Turkey on Saturday denied that Syria had pulled its forces back six miles from the border to avoid provoking Turkey, as the Turkish news media had reported a day earlier. Rebels have long wanted a buffer zone along the border.
Rebel activity was heightened along the border area in Syria’s Idlib Province on Saturday, according to antigovernment activists who said rebels had seized the Syrian village of Khirbet al-Jouz, not far from where the mortar shell landed in a field in the Turkish village of Guvecci. Rebels also claimed to have seized a checkpoint at Darkush, also in the border region.
It was unclear whether rebels were taking advantage of a moment of Syrian restraint or hesitation, or simply building on gains in the area, where government forces are absent from large swaths of territory.
Meanwhile, a prominent advisor to President Assad has been named an agent provocateur in a bizarre plot to incite sectarian strife in next door Lebanon:
The adviser, Buthaina Shaaban, was frequently a spokeswoman for the government during Mr. Assad’s early years in office, when he was portraying himself as a reformist. It was impossible to immediately confirm the accusations, and Syria made no statements on the matter.
The Daily Star and MTV television reported that intelligence officials say they have evidence from phone records that Ms. Shabaan was involved in a plot with Michel Samaha, a former Lebanese government minister who was arrested in August. Mr. Samaha was accused of transporting explosives to be used to assassinate Lebanese political figures in what authorities in Lebanon said was a Syrian scheme to instigate sectarian conflict in Lebanon.
Lebanon, already a tinderbox as Sunnis have lined up to support the rebellion and Hezbollah is backing Assad, has seen regular clashes in the streets between the two sides.
Neither Syria or Turkey wants war. Assad would be unable to fight an insurgency and the modern, NATO supplied army of Turkey. Erdogan knows that any conflict with Syria would make his refugee problem even more unmanageable.
But the problem with military action is that it sometimes has a tendency to take on a life of its own and spiral out of control. The best intentions of both sides might not be enough if an incident sparks a wider conflict that could consume the region.
Turkey should give land for peace, and not return fire. That way, they can be held to the same standard as Israel.
Good luck with that. The situation that Turkey has with the Kurds is roughly analogous to that of Israel and the Palestinians, but how often do you hear what they do to the Kurds in the news? They’re much less restrained than Israel is, and the PKK (the Kurdish guerilla group) usually does try to only attack police and military targets (though they certainly aren’t perfect, comparable to the IRA), as opposed to the Palestinians who prefer to attack civilians.
Syria does not want war, not with Turkey for sure. NATO would be required by treaty to take a hand. That would be choosing… poorly.
Besides, there is already a War on Bacon, now a war on Turkey?!?
I’m thinking we might want to organize a flotilla to help those poor Syrians who are being shelled for no reason by Turkey. It would be armed secretly and not intended to provoke any international turmoil, of course.
This President wouldn’t do anything about it for weeks, if ever. He skips briefings about this type of stuff and if it didn’t appear on Letterman or The View, he might never become aware of it.
I learned this tactic from a country in the region…can’t quite place it, but I may jog my memory at Thanksgiving.
Hey neocons (not necessarily those posting here): is Turkey still an Islamist dominated government that sends flotillas to harass Israel, or is it a plucky NATO ally ready to do battle with Assad’s evil Russian backed regime? I’m sincerely confused. Has Oceania always been at war with Eurasia? Or is it like that character in Lord of War who said he wanted both Iraq and Iran to lose? Because you can be sure the Turks will shoot artillery but won’t roll tanks across that border — too many Russian spetsnaz taking potshots at their guys among the Syrian regulars, and if those ATs sent to Hezbollah killed Merkavas you can be sure they’ll incinerate those old M-60s the Turkish Army’s rolled into northern Iraq and Syria in no time.
The geopolitical world isn’t binary. Turkey may no longer be the close ally it once was, but that doesn’t make it an enemy. They’re still better than Syria. In fact, Turkey getting involved in a war with Syria would be win-win for us. Syria’s civil war gets more complex, and Turkey gets distracted from any more mischief with Israel.
I’d like to re-iterate what Jeff said. I find it funny how often leftists seem to think of the world in terms of black and white, frequently unable to distinguish shades of gray. There’s bad and worse. Turkey’s bad. Syria’s worse. It’s pretty simple.
Not only does the Left see things in black and white, they also have little capacity to recognize that circumstances change with time. Turkey is an ally, but our relationship is complex and shifting… but the Left cannot see anything but the status quo of whatever year it was they completed high school.
It would be kind ironic if Turkey sent in tanks. The frontline Turkish M-60s are all upgraded with Israeli main guns, reactive armor and fire control systems. Turks shooting at Syrian arabs with weapons made by the Jews and Americans. In any case a serious effort by Turkey and the Syrian Army would collapse in short order.
Iran is pulling it’s Quds force fighters from Syria in the face of mounting domestic opposition due to the financial crisis. They are no doubt seeing Syria as a lost cause that they cannot afford. This leaves the only Hezbolla as a base within striking distance of Israel for the Iranians aside from long range missiles.
Iran is trying to upgrade it’s capabilities in Lebanon. Yesterday the Israeli air force shot down an Iranian drone launched from Lebanon. The drone was detected as it approached the coast from Gaza. It was tracked and tailed by F-16s which shot it down. The drone was likely a test of Israeli air defenses.
With loss of support from Iran and Turkey increasingly ready to intervene to get this over with before the refugee problem gets worse, the end game looks very near for Assad.
Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.
This is just more par-for-the-course misery Middle East style. Why get along when we could all be standing around killing each other? Good thing this has nothing to do with the religion that must not be named.
Turkey going to war with Syria?
Why is that a bad thing, again?