Jobs Numbers Have A “Santa Claus On A Unicorn” Feel
While it is highly improbable that BLS conspired to cook the books, there is still a huge 756,000 job gap between the number of jobs employers told the Labor Department they created in September (114k), and the number of Americans who told the labor department that they got new jobs (873k). As the chart below shows, these two numbers never match up perfectly, but this month’s gap, particularly the spike in Americans saying they found jobs, is striking:
Most of all, how do you have a 600k jump in part-time employment in just one month before the beginning of retail season with nobody realizing it until the BLS published today’s report? There are times when you see methodological adjustments or population adjustments in the January report, but it is usually accompanied with a footnote. In order to fully understand the employment situation, we would need to know about any adjustments or at least an explanation of how there was such a precipitous swing towards part-time work in a matter of a few weeks. Most likely, this month’s household survey is just one of those surveys that is a casualty of the margin of error in any sample.
There is no good news in this report from any of the numbers that actually make sense, except for the revisions of the July and August numbers. There is clearly a statistical anomaly here – one that is skewing the numbers counter to the current trend of the economy. But somehow, despite the internal numbers of the household survey and the payroll numbers of the establishment survey, the topline U3 number always seems to decline…..
Pay no attention to that 14.7% U6 broader measure of unemployment!
As our fearless leader said so eloquently several times during Wednesday night’s debate, “Uh…”
600K new “part-timers” in one month?
Maybe people in the underground economy are coming clean? /sarc
Everyone who got a free Obamaphone…also got a job as a telemarketer.
They got to call Chicago cemeteries to wake up the dead so they can register to vote in November.
Elijah Cummings doesn’t want dead voters disturbed until after the election, so asking a voter to prove he is alive is racist.
I mean, a dead voter can be out just going for an I Scream, and he could be hassled by Corpse Corps (pronounced corpse corpse, of course), whose only goal is Dearly Departed Suppression.
Anyway, the Obama phone bank, prompting dead voters to registered (affectionately called The Teleprompters) are busy at work this month, which accounts for the spike in households reporting jobs and Resurrection Mary wandering the streets of Chicago talking about Hanging Chad.
Their cooked books can’t refute puns of THAT magnitude!
Those voters aren’t dead, they’re just resting (6 feet underground).
…got it right, mostly: OFA is not in the employer survey.
Or, those cell-phones are talking to each other: There, statistical anomaly! QED.
“Are you a good Democrat? Want to help Obama get re-elected. If the Household survey people call you, tell them you just got a newly-created job. You do want to help Obama, right?”
Everything is politicized these days.
There will be an “Unexpected” correction to the report on Nov. 7th.
The household survey has always been problematic with a significant margin of error. Since both surveys are produced using samples instead of the whole population, there will always be a chance that a random sample will just be completely off-base. Assuming the employer survey is correct it was a just a statistical fluke that the household survey would have about 700,000 more jobs than reality. By rough calculation, completely randomly, the household survey will be off this much fairly often, maybe once every 2 or 3 decades. There is no need to call in a conspiracy just because this statistical fluke happened to the last jobs report before the election.
Oops, probably some unnamed bureaucrat dropped in a Quarterly number in place of the Monthly number, didn’t check their work, and fired the figures out the door.
MSM picks up the 7.8% number and runs with it.
Close enough for government work.
Meet the Obama Donors at the BLS:
http://freebeacon.com/meet-the-obama-donors-at-the-bls/
In kind contributions. =’[.]‘=
Why would we be suspicious? This is the same DoL that is advising federal contractors not to issue legally required WARN Act layoff notices and the same WH that has promised to “pick up the tab” for it.
The problem with BLS’s September report is as follows:
This is from May 12, 2012 for April:
The big news in Friday’s employment report was not the miserable 115,000 jobs the economy added in April, but the disappearance of 340,000 workers from the labor force. We haven’t seen unemployment on this scale since the Great Depression. Indeed, since Obama took office, the labor force participation rate has fallen from 66% to 63% as almost 5 million American adults stopped looking for work. About a fifth of working-age Americans aren’t working — and a fifth of all personal income is transfer payments. These numbers are astonishing and without precedent. If they continue, America will go bankrupt. Obama’s hope for re-election lies in dependency. No one could run for re-election as dogcatcher with this record — except for the cynical presumption that Americans have become so dependent on the state that they have lost hope of working again, and will vote for more state dependency.
Important to remember: 115,000 jobs created in April 2012. U-3 was 8.1%. U-6 was pegged at 14.5%.
Fast forward to September 2012: 114,000 jobs created. U-3 is now 7.8% while U-6 is still pegged at 14.2%. And 16,000 factory jobs were lost. Coal fired electric producing plants closures. Coal mines closed. Foreclosed homes still a problem. Welfare rolls climbing. Student loan programs bursting at the seams. 52% of college graduates can’t find jobs. Bank loans at an all time low. Monthly factory closures at a record pace. 26 renewable energy companies closed their doors since March 2011!! And-on-and-on…what’s wrong with BLS and this picture???
Finaggling numbers is BLS’s MO…but come on, this is just too much to ask America to swallow! Pray. Amen. Communities have been totally devastated and this BLS joke is foisted off as a “honest” data point??? Really is asking an awful lot of all Americans to believe this Obama administration.
The BLS report is not “fake.” It is a simple reflection of the power of incumbency. There has been a concerted effort to hire in the Federal government for months that is now just showing up in the BLS data.
Check out the report section on the lowering of government worker (Federal, state & local) unemployment to below 5%.
That isn’t a conspiracy. It is called “The advantage of incumbency.” Every President does what he can to juice the economy on election day.
Pres. Obama is no different.
“If you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying.”