The Boyfriend
A radio talk show host characterized President Obama’s DNC convention address as the “boyfriend speech”. She compared his pleading with the screed those deadbeat suitors give they realize they are about to dumped and who promise to bring back the magic.
I couldn’t quite figure out why the speech fell so flat with me. Then it struck me. I’d heard this speech before. You know when you’re in a relationship that has gone past it’s shelf life, and maybe a new guy has started to notice, even woo you. All of sudden, the boyfriend realizes he is about to be dumped, and there is a flurry of activity designed to remind you of how awesome he is in the hopes you don’t break up with him. That was the speech Obama gave last night. It started with a look down memory lane, to the hopeful, young man he was when you first met him. Then he reminded you of how much you’d been through. How bad things had gotten. And how HE was there to lean on in times of need. Then he subtly talked smack about his competition. You don’t want THAT guy, do you? He then went quickly into, “it’s not about me, it’s about you”, filling your head with empty platitudes about how great you are and how much you’ve contributed to the relationship. And then he reasserted himself as THE boyfriend. The one who had to put up with all your crap when you were cranky, doing the heavy lifting so you didn’t have to. Then there was the misty eyed hope about our future. He lays out how he wants to get married, and can’t wait to have children, even though nothing he’s said or actually done to this point indicated this previously. And he wraps things up with the “give me another chance and everything will be different this time” spiel and the speech was over. Read the speech and tell me I’m wrong. I’ve heard it all before.
Any reasonable girl would show him the door. But as readers probably know and much to the surprise of John Hinderaker of Powerline, the “boyfriend” speech very often works. There’s a better than average chance in real life that the girl will not only forget about the IOUs, broken promises and BS — she’ll come busting out the gate after him. Hinderaker can hardly contain his perplexity.
On paper, given Obama’s record, this election should be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Why isn’t it? I am afraid the answer may be that the country is closer to the point of no return than most of us believed …
At National Review, Andy McCarthy poses the same question–why isn’t this election a landslide?–and posits a somewhat different explanation. Andy faults today’s Republicans for not being principled enough, or conservative enough.
But even though he doesn’t use the term McCarthy is unconsciously using the “boyfriend” analogy but this time to chastise the Republicans. If Obama is the deadbeat suitor then Romney in McCarthy’s analogy plays the role of George McFly, the wimpy father of Marty McFly in the Back to the Future series. George is too timid and stuck up to aggressively fight for the hand of the damozel in distress. Without some help from the future, George would simply get pushed around.
You can almost hear McCarthy shout Romney, “propose, dammit,propose!” But all McFly can do is stutter. He’s the cinematic Willard Mitt — too tongue tied and diffident to make his play. Of course analogies only go so far. Mitt is more aggressive than George McFly.
Charles Krauthammer, analyzing the Democratic convention, is on the ‘boyfriend’ track. “Given the state of the economy, by any historical standard, Barack Obama should be 15 points behind Mitt Romney. Why is he tied? The empathy gap. On ‘caring about average people,’ Obama wins by 22 points.” In other words, Barack Obama is like one of those characters in the deodorant commercials who gets the girl with pickup moves that are obvious to everyone but the lady.
Unfortunately for both Krauthammer and McCarthy, this sort of charm — the kind that keeps ladies coming back to their boyfriends after they’ve been bamboozled, betrayed and generally given short shrift, is either something you are born with or not. President Obama, whatever his faults, has got lots of this charm. As Charles Krauthammer put it anyone who thinks everyone eventually sees through this smarminess should remember that the public’s idea of a caring person is still Bill Clinton.
Well, there’s always 2016.
Belmont Commenters
How to Publish on Amazon’s Kindle for $2.99
The Three Conjectures at Amazon Kindle for $1.99
Storming the Castle at Amazon Kindle for $3.99
No Way In at Amazon Kindle $8.95, print $9.99
What a great analysis by the anonymous female talk show host. But it presents a trap, doesn’t it? Women quickly identify with the voter who gave the lying scum-bag a second chance (in the name of female ‘caring’), and men easily identify with the voter who gave the whining excuses for self-indulgent, miscreant behavior (the male ‘uncaring’).
So, who wins on Election Day appealing to one or the other, since both are so weak? Another way to put it, watch the adoration by Mrs. Clinton for her faithless husband’s speech before the DNC, and ask who’s worse: the uncaring transgressor, or the caring enabler, as the next POTUS?
As always in American politics, there is no viable third choice.
I posted somewhere already about one or the other of these, that McCarthy overstates it. Mitt’s plan from day zero has been to say nothing and do nothing, a cold-blooded plan to win as the non-Obama. This is the kind of plan only highly paid (and 1000% cynical) political consultants could come up with. So far, it has gotten Romney the nomination, so … just maybe.
Actually, Romney’s nomination of Ryan puts the strategy somewhat at risk, Ryan’s reputation is otherwise, and he doesn’t seem to have been instructed to just smile and be pretty.
I even make Obambus’ dull convention speech to be his camp’s elaborate and intentional reaction to Romney, virtually making it a contest of two dressmaker’s dummies. Obambus says America will vote for the black one, the incumbent one, the familiar one, as being slightly more warm and fuzzy. Basically he’s throwing down now, and saying let’s vote now, on what you already know, on today’s polls.
What a horrible election, bringing out all the worst in the system and the candidates, nothing substantive anywhere in view.
The optimistic view is that Mitt’s people, by skill or dumb luck, will turn out to have been right and he will win that way – just as he might have with any kind of substantial debate.
We should have a read on it in about two weeks, I think.
But, I am sadly reminded of Guiliani’s brilliant campaign strategy in 2008, of skipping everything and putting all resources into Florida. By the time that rolled around the question of “Where’s Rudy?” and his low readings on the national polls, had doomed him. Or for that matter of Hillary’s brilliant 2008 campaign of skipping the smaller and caucus states as beneath her stature, but each one she lost chopped her down by that much as it raised Obambus, her consultants missed that small detail.
So while I certainly note the leftism in the Obambus campaign, I put that about eleven notches down the totem poll beneath racism, class warfare, wealth-bashing, mud-slinging, and other such content-free tactics. And I never see Obambus in isolation, it is the entire Democratic party, aided and abetted the MSM. The change in the MSM is to me more obvious than any putative change in the electorate. The MSM has totally abandoned their gatekeeper function. It doesn’t even earn them more money to do so. It is more noteworthy and depressing for that reason.
–
ps – I have no idea what the point of that video is supposed to be.
Another radio talk show host compared Obama’s 2nd DNC speech to Jimmy Carter’s, playing one statement after another from each man. The parallels were undeniable. The whole “I know what this job takes now and now I really am ready to do it” theme shines through.
That boyfriend may be all suave and debonair, he may even have a few moves under the hoop. But he still drove Dad’s car too fast, scraped up the fenders, and got sick in the backseat after too many beers. No wonder B0 appeals to all those unmarried woman, and is disdained by married ones. Married women don’t need to take the miscreant back.
As I have been saying about Mitt for a year at least, there is no there there.
2012, no matter who gets the most EV’s, America loses.
Josh, it’s a commercial about deodorant. Or perfume, whatever. If you buy their brand that little honey that left you for Mr. Slick will gang rape you in front of your locker between 3rd and 4th period. Target market is 15 year olds.
4 more years will “fundamentally transform” the United States into Greece 6 months from now or Argentina in 2001.
At least the Greeks have the option of moving their money into German banks so when the implosion hits they still have assets in their name.
When the time comes the Obama administration WILL confiscate YOUR 401k and every cent of your net worth they can get their hands on.
It isn’t that Mitt “isn’t there” or is to “timid” and “stuttering” it’s the fact that the People in the MSM, the Most powerful Propaganda Machine in the World, in the History of the World is pushing the biggest scam in American History! And Not only is it the most powerful propaganda Machine in history pushing it, it also the Elitist class, Pop culture and the Academia class pushing as hard as they can to keep this Fake, this illusion on top and even than they are barely doing it, it’s not the push over from four years ago and 0bama has a record now… Mitt should be win by a landslide and 25 years ago he would be, but 40+ Million people are on food stamps, nearly 50% don’t pay taxes, “Traditional” families are nearly extinct and unmarried women with children out number whole families! The US is a very different place from just ten years ago! And a lot of this is because of “Compassionate Conservatism” not just the last three and a half years! The list go’s on and on why the truth is denied and even run from that’s why Mitt isn’t winning by a landslide.
This may be whistling past the graveyard but I don’t think the election is really that close; I think I could easily be the reverse of the last one, to wit:
**I’m very skeptical of the polling as I think their samples aren’t good; I think many people aren’t answering their phones, etc
**spontaneous things such as Chik-Fil-A convince me the there are a lot of votes at that end of the spectrum that are virtually invisible
**re the ”takers” vs the ”makers”: the takers who are on welfare, food stamps, etc are basically passive and lazy mostly and won’t vote unless they’re paid to do so; other ”takers” who are on SS and M-care are older, grew up in a different time, worked all their lives and, properly approached, will vote for the good of their grandchildren and they are the group that do get out and vote.
So … get ready for another Kael!
He left her crying, in the lurch
She waited for him at the church
He laughed as she began the search
For the boyfriend
He’s somewhere near, she said at last
I never thought he’d run so fast
He hadn’t done that in the past
The boyfriend
She cried, I’m done with him for good
I’ll even leave the neighborhood
I’d kill the bastard if I could
The boyfriend
I’ve got a new man, brave and strong
I should have had him all along
How could I have been oh so wrong
The boyfriend
I’m sorry babe, he called that night
I beg you let me make things right
I love you babe with all my might
Your boyfriend
I’ll care for you and keep you warm
I’ll shelter you from every storm
Remember when we shared that dorm?
Your boyfriend
That new guy he’s just not your kind
A name like Mitt? Well never mind
Come back to me and you will find
Your boyfriend
I love you so, she sobbed and wailed
They said that all you did has failed
My ballot is already mailed
My boyfriend
I doubted yes your love for me
I’ll make it up to you, you’ll see
And you, Barack, will always be
My boyfriend
Random @ 6 When the time comes the Obama administration WILL confiscate YOUR 401k and every cent of your net worth they can get their hands on.
You know this because..?
A mature women can distinguish between assertive and aggressive. Romney is the quinessential nice guy that many girls will dismiss for the guy with tats or the cool guy in the choom gang, but the girl who has either learned her lesson or was raised with a good head on her shoulders knows which kind of man to raise a family with. As a husband and father, Obama certainly makes the cut as a decent guy, but as president he is more like the cool guy. Romney has assertive in him. He does show it at times. The problem is that assertiveness is quieter and more subtle than aggressiveness, so to an immature eye it is more difficult to discern.
CW @ 7 And a lot of this is because of “Compassionate Conservatism” not just the last three and a half years!
Reminds me of an unfinished discussion from previous thread…Josh it’s really not slippery slope, it’s observation of the facts. Attempting to walk a middle path with progressives, giving a little here and there, is just as efficacious as Chamberlain’s appeasement of Dear Leader.
There simply is no stable position to operate the system long term, if it can all go south whenever promises of shoveling greater largesse from the treasury are sufficient to win political power.
We needed the Constitutional Republic to prevent this, but we debilitated the correct function of the College of Electors, and thereby could not “keep it”.
Where does it state that they must select between candidates from two parties?
Women tend to overlap relationships so they won’t be adrift in-between. Men view this as cheating, but they could cheat too if they wanted. Nothing is stopping them.
Still, if she is going to leave Obama then she could at least say why and not fool around prior to dumping him. Also don’t say “let’s still be friends” if you don’t really mean it. (Internet chats don’t count – she should really go see him if she says something like that.)
A nation of battered girl friends. How far, how hard have we fallen, in four miserable years!
12. epignosis:
You know this because..?
Some Democrat apparatchiks have talked about doing exactly that. If you have opened your ears, you would have heard.
Is there some cosmic artistry in reading this thread while the movie on PBS is Barry Levinson’s “Diner?”
All I can say is that I hope we’re re-living 1980. Carter and Reagan were neck-and-neck, until that fateful November. Then…the rest was history.
And if there were ever a president the media would bend over backward to make look competitive, it would have to be Obama.
wretchard -
C’mon, let your inner whiskey out to answer that one. You know you can!
Because the girlfriend wants the lie from the alpha. She depends on it. Not what the talk radio lady says, that shtick never works. She wants the disdain from the fakely hot guy.
epignosis @ 10:
Because they have already floated that idea 3 years ago. Make us “invest” 50% of all private retirement accounts in Gov’t bonds. And the fact that they were not lynched en-mass immediately let them know all they needed to know.
Ruger made 1M firearms last year (2011). They made 1M this year by Aug. 15th. Firearms and ammo sales are setting new records MONTHLY. Do what you will with those facts. I do not care.
Walt – That was brilliant! But you know that. ‘I’ll always be your boyfriend, Honey ….. when it suits me to be.’
It is true that the Republicans should be winning this election in a landslide. Though there are several reasons for this, the obvious single most powerful reason is the MSM, and though I know why we don’t hear about that from the media itself, I don’t understand why we don’t hear more about it from Romney and the other candidates on the right. We must remember that most people are not political junkies. They tune in to the television once in a while or check out the headlines of their local liberal paper, and they don’t see the bias. Reading in a very superficial way, they will see that the obstructionist Republicans are the reason that this very fine fellow Obama can’t get the country back on track. Yes, things are not so good but why should we blame it on the president when the real reason is this extreme right wing party I keep reading and hearing about.
There are certainly other issues that make the Republican party have to work overtime, but that is the big one. And let’s face it. There are good reasons to be skeptical about the Republicans because they were just as responsible for the increase in the size and power of government as the Democrats up until 2008. Obama simply has added steroids to the food of the already muscle-bound Leviathan.
Because the girlfriend wants the lie from the alpha. She depends on it. Not what the talk radio lady says, that shtick never works. She wants the disdain from the fakely hot guy.
My wife didn’t and that’s why I married her. If I tried that stuff on her I would regret it. However, a certain percentage of women want to be lied to for sure. Because in the population distribution you find all kinds. A few posts back I pointed out that many social observers realized there’s even a fair number of people who want to be “owned” by government. It has always been thus.
The crux of the problem is how many? How many people out there are going to fall for the snake oil? History suggests there are altogether too many are apt to. How many countries have followed complete fools? Put their trust in the likes of Saddam Hussein, Hugo Chavez, Robert Mugabe or Kim Jong-un. In the 1940s the Germans followed Hitler, the Italians Mussolini, the British Chaberlain and hell followed after.
But by the same token the other side is equally numerous, or perhaps just a tad more numerous in the crunch. And we see that in every generation the parade of fools is met by an equally large cohort of people who say, “wait a minute”.
So the answer to Krauthammer is, yes there are lot of people who’ll fall for that crud. But there are going to be a lot who’ll see through the racket.
Gordon, shall we whistle a duet? The ONLY person I know around here that is a liberal is my youngest brother, who is a retired gubbermint union employee. He is as far left as I am right. Now I don’t know about the bi-coastals but Obama will get no EV’s from Fly over America. I went to RCP and filled in the bi-coastal states plus NM and Ill. and got 281 to 257, Romney.That is with Mitt taking NC, SC, and GA.
My sister lives in VA in the burbs. She says that 0bama will win Virginia because of the heavy concentration of government workers and SS cases around DC. Unemployment never got above 6% or so.
The election will be settled in Ohio, Florida and PA. 2 of those 3 wins.
Better to shower at Penn State then vote democratic.
I just love her analysis – spot on! And it is sad, but just like some women like to get slapped around, cheated on, and lied to by a total loser – so the Democratic faithful will pull the handle again for Obama.
But we heard this back in 96 with Ol Slick. The soccer mom interviewed who said she didn’t trust Bill Clinton at all, but felt Clinton was the better man for the job.
I’m not sure that the high from the Democratic Convention orgasm is gonna last to the election. I think Romney has a good chance.
Do you really want to reelect Mr. Bogangels? – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4nvhAZ0vr0
The Democrats got a lock on at least 40 percent of the vote, no matter what. If they can turn them out they will always vote for the Democrat. There’s another 40 percent that’s unlikely to vote for the Democrat, no matter what. But that don’t mean they will vote for the Republican. Sometimes they will vote for the Democrat to spite the Republicans. In fact, more than sometimes to hear them talk.
The reason people vote for Democrats has little to do with reason. Sometimes it is self interest disguised as caring about others. But often it is a matter of self identity: they identify with a group and being a member of that group means being — at least nominally — a Democrat. Therefore a rotten economy (or rotten anything) is not enough to get them to support a Republican. To do so is to become a group traitor (The Democrats and the Media will persecute any “highly visible” traitor as a warning to the others).
Obama needs to get his people to the polls and this will not be easy. They will need a lot of walking around money for campaign workers who didn’t become Democrats because they want to work hard. A lot of his voters will have to have absentee ballots brought to their homes (or bedsides) if the Democrats want to be sure they’ll vote. They should bring a gift, too.
The Democrat party has a different problem from Obama. The way the Obama campaign is fighting the election they will lose a lot of seats down ticket. Their candidates in “blue” areas will win big. Their candidates in more competitive areas may loose. Their senate candidates in less populous states may loose. But Obama may win in the electoral college.
The left has been staffing the Government with their supporters for years and in the last three it’s been able to move them up and take over. Obama won’t have much support in Congress so we’ll see a lot of legislating through regulation. That will flat-line the economy as businesses see the regulators and the Democrat special interest groups coming for them.
But Obama’s election is far from a sure thing. He’s still under 50 percent — even in a poll of registered voters (which typically favor the Democrats by about five percent). Also there is low level of interest among his voters. Why would a nominally male Democrat go vote for the Party of Fluke? The way the Democrats are pushing all their voters buttons to stir up resentment may fray the alliance. We shall see.
Obama has a lot of experience speaking up for a dysfunctional relationship: http://thebestamericanpoetry.typepad.com/the_best_american_poetry/2008/09/pop-by-barack-o.html
Random Blowhard @ 6 said:
“When the time comes the Obama administration WILL confiscate YOUR 401k and every cent of your net worth they can get their hands on.”
Obama won’t do anything so crude as directly seize 401k money. The Fed only needs to continue doing what they’ve been doing since March 2009, i.e. pump up the stock market with freshly printed greenbacks through HFT. Your return on investment is less than inflation if you buy CDs or anything safe. That’s because the prime interest rate was set to zero. After the PPT drives the DJIA up to 15k, the last bear will have capitulated and the sheeple will be back in the stock market buying AAPL at $1000/share. That’s when the Fed drops the trap door, pulls out their monopoly money and allows market forces to take over. I might add that the Fed must at some point, recover the trillions they used to pump up the markets or there would be hyperflation.
Be a mindless sheep, invest in this market, help Obama get reelected, watch your retirement money go “poof” and then eat cat food for the remainder of your short life.
Nixon and Romney are about even on the political spectrum, but Nixon’s smile was more natural. I guess the real problem is that I’d rather have a root canal than vote for Romney. Too bad that I’m not the only one.
I dunno, I think Hinderaker, McCarthy and many others are being too pessimistic. The fact of the matter is the media polls that everyone is worrying about seem to use a D/R/I sample that hasn’t existed since 2008. By the time 2010 came around, the party affiliation had switched from about D+8 to around even or R+1. You saw what happened in 2010. From what I read, it has shifted even more towards the R now. Plus you have Serpent head Carville out yelling about how Romney is ahead with Indy voters by 16 and Michael Moore whining about how everyone should get comfortable with the idea of President Romney. So I don’t know if all the eeyoreism is justified. Maybe turning off the network DNC infomercials masquerading as news and watching some game shows for awhile will make everyone feel better.
American voters don’t like the smell of the Democrats or the Republicans. The voters’ dilemma is to decide which one will taste better than it smells.
Obama and Romney are a puzzle to the voters for different reasons. Is Obama as dopey as he seems to be or is there some hidden ability that will show through in a second term? Romney’s a decent guy but does he have the grit to get America back on track?
It feels 50/50 to me. Romney has to make Obama look stupid in the eyes of most voters. Since Obama’s governance has been stupid this is something that Romney should be able to do. He has to convince the voters that he will improve their future prospects and Romney must make them believe that Obama is certain to wreck the joint if he gets a second term. If the voters come to believe that their prospects in 2016 will be better with President Romney than with President O’Bragger then Romney will win.
Romney isn’t doing it so far.
There are two issues there that haven’t had much discussion but which are playing a serious part in this election. Both of them have to do with Obama’s failures.
First, I think the inside polling shows Romney wins going away. Now, if that is known as the case in early September, a LOT of eyes and advertising revenue go away. Both the MSM and the alternative media have bucks to make if they continue the narrative of a close race as long as they can.
Second, the LSM, even if they know their candidate is going to get killed, is in full-bore outrageous lie mode in an attempt to limit the downticket damage. A Romney/Ryan win with long coattails–say, Dems losing the Senate bad enough that Romney has a 60 vote majority–is their worst nightmare. They will do everything they can possibly do to prevent that. I suspect that “everything they can possibly do” is going to be exacerbated by the fact that a lot of them see this campaign as their last hurrah. They know they will be close to irrelevant in the next one.
As usual, we’re not getting anything close to the actual unvarnished truth.
0bama talks so much BS he could fertilize Nebraska! His “girl friends” are leaving him because they get covered with donkey crap.
Duke Energy is one of those girls who wants her credit card back.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/democrats-said-to-end-convention-15-million-short.html
Buck o’Fama
You are 100% correct; the sampling most pollsters use is incredibly skewed to the Dems. One poll, either ABC, Carville, or the Wash Post polled 38% Dems, 32% GOP, and 30% Indies, when the actual percentages should be GOP 36, Dem 34, Indy 30. So when Obama came out 4% ahead, the result, using true percentages of party affiliation, would have been something close to Romney by 4%!
Another thing: One does not have to be a psephologist to predict the effect of the Dem’s Snafu on God and Jerusalem; if the Dems are VERY lucky, this idiocy will only cost them 2% of the vote. But what will decide the election is the economy. When someone like Edward Klein — and even Bob Woodward, writes a book showing the President as a neurotic incompetent and economic illiterate, one way or another a large number of Americans will come to believe it.
To Josh and Stoicheion: Mitt Romney has already said that he has two opponents in this election — Obama and the media. This being the case, he CANNOT advance specific programs because, if he does, the media, as one, will denounce his plans as dangerous — and call him a liar in the bargain. Do you really expect him to say something has to be done about the fact that 45 million people are on Food Stamps, 7.5 million on Disability? Even on Obama’s foreign policy record, which, in my opinion, is just as bad as his handling the economy, Romney has to be very circumspect in his criticisms and
language — again because of the media. That said, I wish that some independent Pac would publicize the fact that Putin (a few days ago) and China (in its controlled press last week) have both endorsed Obama.
Final thought: If Obama, with his shameful record, wins, one has to say that the American people will deserve what they get — and what they get will be far from pleasant.
Parchellan
After thought: If some Belmont Club members are thinking about making political contributions, let me suggest that you donate to Republican Senate candidates in close races in small States. Dollar for dollar, such donations give you the best political bang for the buck.
@ 8. Gordon,
I concur. Adapted from my comments at neoneocon:
There is something quite bizarre going on with the polls. The Presidential preference poll has been flat as a pancake for months. Events that in times past have moved it one way or t’other seem to have no effect.
There are, as I see it, two possible explanations – either the electorate is locked in far, far earlier than ever before or the sampling is defective.
Occam’s razor points to the latter. I note two things:
Pew on 5/15 “At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today.”.
http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/
The other is the Wisconsin recall election exit polling. That polling indicated that Walker was losing big which turned out to be very wrong.
The Wisconsin misstep has been attributed to selection bias. Walker opponents sought out the survey takers far more than supporters.
I believe that the very low participation response per Pew strongly suggests that the same kind of bias is at work in the preference polls.
Pollsters try very hard to correct for bias and distortions, but it is devilishly hard to do. They operate on the assumption that past is prologue. They apply statistical analyses to determine trends.
This works reasonably well in normal times but by design they miss the black swans. The significant change elections in modern times occurred in 1900, 1932, 1952, 1980, 1994 and 2010. Note that they happen roughly a generation apart. These is no reason to believe that things have changed much since 2010.
People hang up. I have hung up on at least 10 pollsters in the last couple of months. People who have a stronger emotional commitment to a candidate are more eager to let that be known. People with grim determination are just patiently waiting for November 6.
Bottom line – it’s a brave new world and the pollsters are totally befuddled.
Been seeing some ads on this Obama-as-boyfriend theme lately
.
The RNC has an ad http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoekOZTuTvU
And College RNC has another one for the 18-29 age group
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWV5-1LXvwg
I think they’re good ads but I’m not sure there are many undecideds out there that would be swayed, let alone anyone who’d change their mind based on them.
The analogy explains why we have become so ineffective in the international arena.
The speech might work on the girl but it will not on her friends and aquaintances. They know better because he has been hitting on them behind her back the whole time. They won’t say it to her face but when she takes him back they will treat her with contempt for being such a fool. They might even take him up on it just because she is acting like such an idiot.
Once again Putin has shot us down on Iran, refusing tighter sanctions which is the lynchpin of our whole policy. Hey why not?
epignosis @12: “Where does it state that they must select between candidates from two parties?”
It doesn’t, but all 50 state legislatures, each exercising separately their sovereign power to specify a method for chusing Electors, have independently arrived at a method (arithmetical counting of votes with a universal franchise, plurality winner) that has that result.
The states, acting independently from one another, could change this, but that is somewhat unlikely.
Many Many women have been put on the straight and narrow road by the feeling of one pay check away from homelessness
Isaiah 4
English Standard Version (ESV)
4 And seven women shall take hold of one man in that day, saying, “We will eat our own bread and wear our own clothes, only let us be called by your name; take away our reproach.”
This gives them an incentive to vote
(we know who wins, right?)
Has anyone actually READ the Starr Report? It probably says more about the dunderheaded public that its contents are widely known yet disregarded. Clinton is inadequate and selfish in the role of lover and perjuring in the role of President. How he could now be venerated baffles me. That he seems to be is a terrible indictment of the state of morality and self-regard within the American electorate. Likewise Obama. It is stunningly apparent that he is duplicitous and small-minded. His intellect offers nothing to excite anything other than curiosity as to its educational history and record. Both Clinton and Obama make me feel as though I have flipped over a rock and seen something horrible.
gokart @ 35 – It doesn’t, but all 50 state legislatures, each exercising separately their sovereign power to specify a method for chusing Electors, have independently arrived at a method (arithmetical counting of votes with a universal franchise, plurality winner) that has that result.
That’s it, but binding the hands of the Electors should be no more the prerogative of the states as binding the decisions of a Supreme Court justice who derives from that state. This is where the intent of the Constitution was undermined, to the detriment of the entire nation.
elkh1 @ 15 Some Democrat apparatchiks have talked about doing exactly that. If you have opened your ears, you would have heard.
Launching a trial balloon is a common strategy, probably used more by groups with nefarious intentions than those that are more upright. The response of the public is then observed to develop strategy.
For example, various voices of the left proposed suspending the election to deal more effectively with the financial crisis. Apparently, the public response was sufficient to discourage that plan.
Not knowing the response to the proposed hijacking of 401k’s, we can only look for evidence of actions in that direction. The question posed to you is “are you aware of some actions that the rest of us are not aware of?”
w @ 20 History suggests there are altogether too many are apt to. How many countries have followed complete fools? Put their trust in the likes of Saddam Hussein, Hugo Chavez, Robert Mugabe or Kim Jong-un. In the 1940s the Germans followed Hitler, the Italians Mussolini, the British Chaberlain and hell followed after.
The USA was blessed from the beginning. Not just geographically, obtaining a fresh start on a continent rich in resources and opportunity, but also in the nature of the constituents. All those groups, purged from the more developed nations of the world, possessed uniqueness of mental attitude.
The closely held beliefs in the moral codes presented in the bible, the Decalogue being the chief instance, formed an understanding of the proper constitution of individual volition (and responsibility), family integrity, and the role of the state.
This wonderful basis is entirely responsible for our development and survival as a nation, in a very troubled world.
When those belief systems are undermined and failed, well, that’s when the people fall victim to poor choices. Back to your topic of “some government to belong to” in The Opposite of Loneliness.
Those many Germans who subscribed to the emanations of Dear Leader had already forfeited their volition to the many false gods that were ultimately unable to satiate the inner hunger.
Along comes someone able to manipulate and control, and seduction achieves. They wanted it, only, the rancid concoction ultimately caused them (and the rest of the world as a consequence) to spew vomit from their mouth.
Our wonderful Constitutional Republic is at risk of being converted to democratic squalor. Josh points out, from time to time, half of the people are below average in xxxx (whatever characteristic you want to insert).
Trouble is, in democracy, once the supporting moral structure fails, the clamoring masses unleash wanton greed for the property of others and lust for free stuff from government.
Given that the Dems were given a strong no confidence vote in 2010 it is somewhat mysterious why Romney isn’t doing better. I don’t think the electorate is going to unleash an Obama/Pelosi/Reid government again. Do they want 4 more years of gridlock? Or to let the Republicans try to get on with it. We are going broke fast and I don’t believe that the Republicans firing on all cylinders can avert disaster, but it seems obvious that letting Romney try to stop the rot would be the more prudent solution. I like to believe the polls are wrong and that people are misleading them. Something seems to be going on, so I will not be shocked if Romney does better than the polls on Nov 6. I don’t know if Romney has the necessary brass appurtenances to get the private sector rolling and geld the public sector but I can’t think of anyone who is qualified by experience to do it. Hope he gets a shot.
I bought her perfume, not like me at all. She came over wearing make up, not like her. “Gimme a kiss,” gets one kiss, and I realize that’s it, no mas. Hey, I’m good at writing this mushy stuff, I mean, “Yo, Barack! I feel your pain. But we gotta let you go.”
I love the conservative logic – our 95% white party is wildly unpopular – it must be THEY’RE fault.
How about this – your ideology is fundamentally flawed and a failure. Humanity does not require you to exist and you are being slowly, but surely weeded out.
As Eddie Vedder of Pearl Jam once sang, IT’S EVOLUTION, BABY.
e @ 40: Josh points out, from time to time, half of the people are below average in xxxx (whatever characteristic you want to insert).
But I’m not sure what the best use of it is – is that a better campaign issue to use to criticize a candidate, or a platform to run on promising to fix it?
–
Paul Ryan on ABC this morning … very unconvincing.
All: check out Maureen Dowd’s latest, another crack in the dam (AKA another rat leaving ship).
” Hey, I’m good at writing this mushy stuff, I mean, “Yo, Barack! I feel your pain. But we gotta let you go.”
What if it is like this the sum of all fears: Obama wins. 2014 he is given a mandate and destroy the GOP as USA then use China as a kind of role model inch by inch and GOP is reborn as the party of Lincoln and TR….then Jesus comes ?
the ‘truth” hits the fan. if we can not win in 2012 we can never win.
“I don’t understand why we don’t hear more about it from Romney and the other candidates on the right.”
Probably for the same reason that conservatives shutter every time Obama blames his own policies on GWB. It is a dog ate my homework kind of pathology that the left is full of and blaming everyone/everything else simply has bad optics.
It is true about the MSM being in the bag for Obama. Romney has outlined some brilliant plans and strategies like US independence from foreign oil and all it gets is a big yawn from the MSM. That can be expected, but conservatives will not believe Romney said it unless they hear it from George Stephanopolis. Blame it on Romney. Yeah, do you still beat your wife?
”People hang up. I have hung up on at least 10 pollsters in the last couple of months.”
I’m part of the bias and I think I hang up on 10 almost every day or let the machine get it. I have many friends who do the same (but went to the local Chik-Fil-A).
” … conservatives shutter every time … ”
I’ll see your shutter and raise you two shudders.
moot – I am shuttering my windows as we speak! Good one. Geesh.
“How about this – your ideology is fundamentally flawed and a failure. Humanity does not require you to exist and you are being slowly, but surely weeded out.”
Well at least your racist genocidal dreams are informed by your conscience.
Heh.
Polls – If you are being polled, the pollster knows where to find you. What else does he know about you? Are you willing to risk an identifiable opinion in this political environment?
The only poll that counts is the election booth. All else is manipulation!
HDGreene:
“The reason people vote for Democrats has little to do with reason. Sometimes it is self interest disguised as caring about others. But often it is a matter of self identity: they identify with a group and being a member of that group means being — at least nominally — a Democrat.”
That is a good follow up to Wretchard’s “Belonging Uncertainty” post. There are tens of millions of knuckleheads out there who will never vote R, for any reason because they self identify as a Democrat. Can’t pry that identity from their heads come hell or high water.
Logic or bad times will not matter.
That said, many of those people may not vote R, but they also less enthused this time about showing up to the polls.
Young Adults, Jews and Blacks will not turn out in anywhere the numbers that they did in 2008, and there many R’s that will that didn’t in 2008.
This election will be about turnout.
And the dead give away in all the polls is the RCP Right Track/ Wrong Direction poll that shows that only 32% of the country believes we are on the right track, while 62% believes we are on the wrong track. Although that polling question is probably only a few years old, so it’s hard to verify, but I don’t think that sentiment on the direction of the country has been this bad in our lifetimes.
The buck usually stops in voter’s minds at the Prez’s desk, no matter how charming or cool some think he is.
Roy, Gordon: You’re correct. People hang up or don’t pick up in the first place.
As swing-staters, we’re bombarded with polling and campaign calls, sometimes five or six a day. We’ve not responded to a single one, and others tell me they do the same. (Isn’t that why Caller ID and Voice Mail were invented?)
In essence, we’ve all decided to “Shut up now, Show up on Nov 6.” As a result, the fear and fury of the beleaguered middle-class is woefully underestimated by the pols and the polls.
The only reason that Obama is ahead of Romney in the polls is that the US has finally passed the tipping point. The entitlement community now outweighs the creative community. More people see Mother Government as the path to security than realize it is the Road to Serfdom. The Gramscian March through our institutions over the last century has finally born fruit.
Those who do not know their history are condemned to repeat it. Our educational system and the Fourth Estate have conspired to ensure that the American public do not know history. We are about to pay a terrible price for this.
Lorenz #41:
Normally gridlock is good for private business. As the Denizens of DC argue about how many Feral Regulators can dance on the heead of a pin, people just do what they will when left alone – which is called Capitalism.
But with Obama we have unelected Czars, Presidental Edicts, and Recess Appointments when Congress is not even in recess. The only Gridlock in DC is in the effort to stop him.
The Obama Admin is acting not as an elected government but as an occupying power.
“Humanity does not require you to exist and you are being slowly, but surely weeded out.”
Humanity may not but civilization does. The Blue States NEED the Red states to exist. The Red States would be better off without the Blue states.
My personal opinion is that If Obama loses, there will be riots in the cities.
If Obama wins, crops will burn. Lets see just how much wheat you can grow in the gutter next to your apartment building. Farmers ALWAYS eat first.
After the Corporate agriculture fields are burned, you will have food for maybe a month. Expect to be hungry next March.
How do you square your opinion with the fact that between abortion and homosexuality, liberals don’t even come close to breeding at a replacement rate.
You do understand how that works? I’m not going to explain it to you. If you knew who your father was, he might clue you in.
Celer, Silens, Mortalis.
20. wretchard
A few posts back I pointed out that many social observers realized there’s even a fair number of people who want to be “owned” by government. It has always been thus.
The crux of the problem is how many?
…….
Conservative European observers of the US healthcare debate a couple years back noted that the socialists became dominant in Europe when they went to single payer government healthcare. The reason for this was that the healthcare biz made the government share of the economy close +-50%. Perhaps more importantly healthcare made the government role in people’s lives so pervasive that “rights” seemed to come from the state. Rather than God. If you believe your rights come from the state, then you are a liberal statist. If you believe that your rights come from God, then you are conservative free market(ist).
43. tim in ohio
I an amazed that you are able to speak for humanity. Humanity is 7 billion people scattered around the globe and you know what each and every person needs? Wow! Except you appear to hate white people. That’s not nice Tim. You wouldn’t be a white person yourself now, would you?
Maybe you should bust out of Ohio and rule the world. Perhaps you could turn the world into a Xerox of Cleveland! Tim, I’m laughing at you because your blowhard declaration of nonsense is funny.
re: swing states (will make/break the election).
What matters is 60+ in the Senate, nothing else. Deadlock is not enough this time. Irrespective of Mr. O dictating by decree, that model won’t work for a ‘pub. The dems have more lawyers.
What I’d like to know is what instruction Mr. R has given his team. Is it “Without the Senate, I’m just a fifth wheel.” or something that suggests it’s only about him. His focus has to be the former. And if these are the goals (he’s lived the MBO life) then how is it that this behavior (consultant advised or not) gives his chances in the Senate the greatest lift? Vice a strong run on small-government principles – running hard to the right as RushL claims only Mr. Reagan ever did. Granted that if Mr. R doesn’t get the Senate there’s no chance of moving to the right.
We’ll have to wait for the insider books 5-10 years after the election. If his wager fails I suspect a large fraction of the makers will go Galt – doing what France’s able have done, are doing. Be interesting to know how many have already prepared their own lifeboats. I suspect there’s a captital flight executive order ready to go (if not already signed) – I’ve already seen a lengthing of transaction times where I can’t believe it’s just about float – given ZIRP, etc.
epignosis @39…
The theft of 401K wealth has been under way every year of the Wan’s maladministration.
The mechanism is financial repression.
Perennial slices of 6% — COMPOUNDED — get’er done.
( 0.94 ^ 4 = 0.78 a shrinkage of 22% over one term )
( 0.94 ^ 8 = 0.61 a shrinkage of 39% over two terms )
When the Bernanke prints money — expands his balance sheet — it’s a WEALTH TAX — paid by EVERYONE with financial assets nominated in US Dollars — or in ANY currency with a rigged exchange value to the USD.
The Fedsury does NOT borrow money to the same rules as all other parties. In a pinch — it just prints more $$$$. If you print money the Secret Service will come and put you away for 40 years.
For all fiat currency powers — ‘borrowing’ in their own script — they aren’t really borrowing by the same rules as you/we/us credit them for.
I like the boyfriend analogy. When he moved in, she fantasized that he was going to pay for the rent and utilities., but he turns out to be the sort of boyfriend who plays golf a lot, runs up your credit card, and only wants to pay for birth control.
http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/09/09/2984231_california-state-parks-budget.html
Folks, you’ll have to read this Sunday paper lead article from the Sacramento Bee by Matt Weiser.
It’s government — California style.
“On paper, given Obama’s record, this election should be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Why isn’t it?”
Because it takes a candidate to beat a candidate.
While others were courting votes, Romney was courting dollars from the Party bigwigs. 75% of his early donations were max dollars donations. It was the opposite for the other guys. He had the money. The others never stood a chance.
So, why did the Republican Establishment choose Romney? They wanted someone who would play ball. They want the game to continue, with Republicans in charge. Romney is willing to be their puppet. He’s a puppet, not a candidate.
Gonna vote 3rd-Party, here. Heck, I might just vote for Obama out of spite. Still debating. I do know I am not going to vote for Romney. Not ever. Damned Party hack.
It might be better to vote Republican down the line and have Obama as President. Maybe they will fix a few things, and otherwise stay gridlocked. Maybe they will grow some cajones and finally impeach Obama. That would be ideal, because then we won’t be seeing him treated as some great former President, a la Clinton. It would also mean going after the corruption, political bodies being strewn across the landscape.
Hey, I can dream, right?
You are totally ignoring the fact that the polls lie. 1) ‘Adults of voting age’ – this will always skew Democratic Party. 2) ‘Registered voters’ – again, this will always skew Democratic Party. 3) +4% Democratic Party to start with – as though it were still 2008, and the 2010 election had never happened.
To sum up – you’re buying the propaganda. Romney is waaay ahead, and even with all the contrived built-in Democratic Party skews, it’s hard to hide.
Quit carrying water for them.
Girlfriend? Not factored in to this equation is the father or brothers.
The girl may take him back but the father is cleaning a shotgun on the coffee table in clear site.
Speaking as a father if you hurt my daughter be prepared to kill me because its the only way to stop me. And by the way i stopped speaking metaphorically in that last sentence. The progressive marxists and thier radical actions will get a fight because like wife beaters or girlfriend beaters they never no when to stop, and never think anyone willreally step in and stop them
If there weren’t enough reasons not to vote for Lord Buraq, just add another – the labor participation rate of men in the workplace is now at it’s all time low! 69.8% This is now the worst Depression ever to my way of thinking.
Buraq’s War on Men will continue until moral improves.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/biggest-shock-fridays-payroll-report-sorry-men
The reason that Romney is failing is easy for me. Don’t watch – Listen – to each of their speeches. Obama’s cadence and tone is often more staccato, ending on a voice pattern that that is distinct and “commanding.” That sense of “command” is decisive and more reassuring to the weaklings who want to feel “safe.” A personal sense of safety comes from varied places – internal courage, commitment to a well-researched game plan for difficult times, and a sense of passion in assuring your own survival. It won’t come from a snake-oil salesman who doesn’t know or care who you are or what is going on in your life. The loss of a willingness to assume responsibility for one’s self, and a loss of confidence that one can succeed on one’s own efforts, is part of the Socialists’ goal of proving that you need them.
Next, listen to Romney’s tone. It is similar to the whiney “Valley Girl” cadence, where many sentences end with a rising pattern (normally used in asking a question)somewhat higher than his normal speaking voice that does not connect to the strong, decisive, and authoritative tone that people “believe” is going to assure their safety in troubled times.
The reason most Men are in Romney’s camp is that even though most American men are not doing all that well financially, they still believe they CAN do well, no matter how Romney’s tone affects others. Most men have a sense of pride and those that aren’t Metrosexuals cannot stand the thought of Barack being their “Daddy” under any circumstance. Unfortunately, many men will swallow their pride and vote the way they think best for their families, no matter the snake oil they have to endure. They will end up hating themselves in the end, because voting for the Marxist-in-chief spells doom for any man, his family, and the nation.
That said, I have a sinking feeling that Obama is going to win. He may be a jackleg and a smarmy wimp, but he appeals to the talk show host’s “bad boy” description. She rejects the whiney boyfriend, but an awful lot of women “stay the course” with a known quantity – the failed boyfriend.
Reference the first 30 seconds of the following YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhdUt4bJWQo
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, with his idealistic outlook and well-intentioned goals, cannot whip the unprincipled, lying thug. Reference the “nice guys finish last” cliché. Romney is a deeply religious man, and deep in the WWJD paradigm, some Christians believe that pacifism is the way to go. This one Christian believes that faith and survival, do not suggest self-canceling paths . The Bible is a pro-life document that declares suicide a sin. Not fighting for your life, or that of your family, is a sin. If that fight includes a life-threatening attack, you are expected to defend yourself against evil – to the death.
Smart, tough, and street-wise leadership will appear on the local scene in any SHTF situation. But so will evil rise in the vacuum of clear national leadership. The kind of leadership I will seek out in bad times, which I believe are a surety if Obama is re-elected, a probability if Romney wins, will be principled, tough, realistic, and dynamic leadership.
I don’t see leadership on the national horizon –“ tim’s” (below) certainly doesn’t offer anything but his own perverted sense of inevitability. Leadership will, however, bubble up in bad times. Keep in mind Josey Wales’ wisely offered advice:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yid-CW-O9Qw
That IS just the way it is.
43. tim in ohio – How about this – your ideology is fundamentally flawed and a failure. Humanity does not require you to exist and you are being slowly, but surely weeded out.
Don’t worry man, your side is doing the lion’s share in culling your own herd. Keep it up, will ya?
Last advice: Check six, timmy… don’t be there when we “leave,” man, it might be a tad messy for you.
64. Marc Malone
Hey, I can dream, right?
Dude, it won’t matter what you dream – you’re on LSD right now.
where is the TEA party?
RWE #56 Yup – these are extraordinary times. The Fed Gov has occupied the country. I’ve been reading Steyn’s After America and the situation is truly astonishing. Stalin must be laughing in Hades at us for electing a Social Democrat just at the moment when what he called Social Democratic Deviationism hit the wall.
#68
A Carnival Barker has a staccato voice. That doesn’t mean that the majority of crowd will fall for his confidence game.
72. T2costkeeper
I hope you’re right, but teH Won is up 4 to 5% in convention bounce.
I’m praying that he eventually sees the light and stops his destructive path for America…but then I realize he’s about his transformation goal.
He wants to destroy America and he is getting it done.
We automotons are standing around watching him do it, all the while wringing our hands and plaintively offering, “Ain’t it awful?”
Wretchard,
You are drinking the MSM poll Kool-aid.
Consider the following “Non-News” that are huge GOTV factors for 2012:
1) The Youth vote is not coming for Obama in 2012. He isn’t “Cool” anymore.
2) The Independent voter isn’t coming for Obama either. He is too much of a hard Left Democratic partisan for them.
3) The Anti-Obama Catholic Church vote, however, *is* coming.
Number 3) above is where the lack of MSM religious reporting is going to bite the Left square in the butt. The Left won’t pay attention to it’s coming, so they are going to be blind sided by it’s effect on election day.
The Obamacare contraception/abortion/gay hiring mandates on Catholic Religious and Healthcare institutions plus Devout Catholic owned businesses are going to be in 2012 what the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act was in 1994.
The Obama Administration has made a survival issue of the continuing independence of the Catholic Church.
The Knights of Columbus e-mail lists, Catholic radio and cable EWTN station are all hot with out takes from the Democratic National Convention “Abortion-paloza”.
The Obama EPA shutting down of coal fired power plants and coal mines, plus the attack on the Catholic church, gives a lot of Mid-Western white ethnic union voters a different & non-Democratic Party identity to vote with.
Pennsylvania is 53% Catholic.
An 80,000 to 100,000 vote wing from Obama to Romney in Pennsylvania is on the table, with White ethnic working class Catholic voters going for Romney in 2012 at rates Hispanic voters went for Obama (AKA at 70(+)%) being on the table.
Do your own the math if you don’t like mine.
The full extent of the Catholic Church’s intervention into American politics in 2012 won’t be clear for years, but the negative political impact of it on Obama — and Democrats in general — will be known on the second Wednesday in November 2012.
This is the price of Democratic identity politics.
I try to answer all pollsters so as to corrupt their data as much as possible. They seem to mostly want to hear from the young and dumb – people of voting age 18 – 26 who are not active politically. When the demographics questions come around, I do my best to paint my responses as a committed green, black lesbian Hispanic union member so as to not waste their time. The trick is to get past their initial screening questions. Doing the young and dumb routine works better than most others.
The other thing you can do is to give logically inconsistent answers to various questions, though the good polls do have ways to toss out responders who are playing this game. Cheers -
There’s no mystery why Romney is faring so poorly against a POTUS shepherding the worst economy since Herbert Hoover. Romney, and in particular Romney’s operatives, have spent the past 4 years destroying (we’re talking close up and personal here) every potential GOP candidate, with fairly unethical means.
True, “politics ain’t beanbag”, but then again, folks have long memories when they see good people destroyed by lies. No matter HOW much I believe Obama will hurt America or my own pocketbook, the fact that the other guy has repeatedly stressed how worthless I am as a conservative, how I have no other alternatives but to be the “anti-Obama” vote, that will won’t get me to open my checkbook, to talk to friends or neighbors about the merits of the Romney candidacy, and it might not even get me to the polls in November.
Yeah, I might still vote for Romney, but my “support” sure as hell won’t show up on any poll as a likely Romney supporter, or as bummer sticker on the back of my car.
What I note about the Romney campaign is how “quiet” his support is. Even through Ryan may be a fine fellow, and might actually lead the nation to a balanced budget in say, before I DIE in 15 or 20 years, he doesn’t have the Bona fides of Sarah Palin. When she spoke, the common men and woman knew what she meant and TRUSTED her. Ryan’s just another bright Congressman with an idea.
I don’t know what will happen in November. I do know that the GOP Establishment have once again foisted a weak, RINO candidate on a party that is 3/4′s conservative. There a whole lot more ambivalence than enthusiasm out there for Romney, and that might just be enough to (a) re-elect Obama, and (b) permanently marginalize and destroy the GOP. NO CONSERVATIVE will trust any current GOP office holder after November if Romney loses and saddles us with Obama for four more years, and perhaps socialism forever.
Romney’s made his bed, and now we all lie in it. Vote for him, or not, I don’t care. I’m just one of those “powerless” conservatives with no choices, with no influence on the electorial process whatsoever. I just pay the bills. Hell, that’s wrong! I’ll never live long enough. My GRANDCHILDREN will pay Obama’s bills. LOL, I guess that’s Obama’s joke. Reversing the generational sin of slavery of white men upon black men, by making all men equally slaves.