Classical Values has a wonderful post which examines the performance of Barack Obama’s campaign in the context of Saul Alinsky’s famous Rules for Radicals. Classical Values attributes the decline in BHO’s recent poll numbers to John McCain’s application of John Boyd’s OODA loop strategy. He writes:
Well he has gone after McCain in particular AND the Republicans in general. McCain blunted the attack, and counter attacked. Republicans are not buying it at all.
McCain, the fighter pilot, has gotten inside Obama’s OODA loop. Something the Navy teaches fighter pilots to do.
AdvertisementThe OODA Loop, often called Boyd’s Cycle, is a creation of Col. John Boyd, USAF (Ret.). Col. Boyd was a student of tactical operations and observed a similarity in many battles and campaigns. He noted that in many of the engagements, one side presented the other with a series of unexpected and threatening situations with which they had not been able to keep pace. The slower side was eventually defeated. What Col. Boyd observed was the fact that conflicts are time competitive.
Elections are nothing if they are not time competitive. Evidently the “freezing of the opponent” that Alinsky recommends has not worked on McCain. He was not frozen. Once that happened McCain was operating inside Obama’s decision loop.
Evidently Boyd is beating Alinsky. Or to put it another way. The fighter pilot is beating the community organizer. As a Navy man myself, I’m not surprised.
I have a slightly different evaluation and it is explained below. Fundamentally, it begins with a heresy: despite his claims to the contrary, Barack Obama is not a “community organizer”. Alinsky’s Community Organizing model was above all a response within the Left to the Cult of Personality. Rules for Radicals is founded on the principle of “letting the people decide”, and while it does not dogmatically discount the influence of leadership it fundamentally rejects the idea that a “vanguard” intellectual elite can lead the “masses”. Those who don’t remember Alinsky’s famous rules can read them below and instantly grasp the spirit behind them. Nearly every one of them has been shredded by Barack Obama.
RULE 1:”Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have.” Power is derived from 2 main sources – money and people. “Have-Nots” must build power from flesh and blood.
RULE 2: “Never go outside the expertise of your people.”
RULE 3: “Whenever possible, go outside the expertise of the enemy.”
RULE 4: “Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules.”
RULE 5: “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.”
RULE 6: “A good tactic is one your people enjoy.”
RULE 7: “A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.”
RULE 8: “Keep the pressure on. Never let up.”
RULE 9: “The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.”
RULE 10: “If you push a negative hard enough, it will push through and become a positive.”
The ideal organizer never takes personal credit for success. He finds existing currents and empowers people to free themselves from oppressors in culturally familiar ways. Organizers may provide background support for the popular activity — often doing the hard, dangerous stuff behind the scenes — but the people must always see achievements as being due to their own effort. Finally an organizer fades away. The ambition of a great organizer is to ride into the sunset like Shane, leaving a people’s organization that will persist after he is gone. An example will make this clear. The most successful Alinsky style organizing campaign in modern history, and perhaps all history, was run by General Petraeus in Iraq. The Anbar Awakening, the Sons of Iraq, the MTTs, the purple fingers, the deployment of troops among the people to protect them from terrorist intimidation. It’s a classic application of an empowerment process versus al-Qaeda and the beauty of it is that the Iraqis think they did it themselves. If Barack Obama had any idea of what an organizing campaign really was he would have hired David Petraeus not Wesley Clark to advise him. Petraeus understands “we”; Clark is much more comfortable with “I”. Obama truly doesn’t seem to understand the principles behind the Surge. His solution to international problems seem to revolve around personal interventions: visits to enemy capitals, understanding, healing. He’s a man of the limelight, not an organizer behind the scenes.
Barack Obama’s first and most grievous mistake was to make the campaign about himself. The “people” became the mere backdrop for his mass rallies. No real organizer mints a Presidential seal, describes himself as the symbol of a generation, believes he is the One and makes himself the object of ridicule. No real organizer insults the masses as gun-toting, Bible-clinging ignoramuses at a fundraiser attended by billionaires in San Francisco. Not a single experienced mass agitator would ever dream of extolling the values of arugula and upbraid the workers for their ignorance of tire pressures. What kind of Alinsky-style organizer reminds people of his sacramental nature, repetitively, monotonically and deadeningly? Memo to Obama: “A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.”
A real organizer works in small settings, amplifying, exhorting, putting others on the stage. He doesn’t work in front of large crowds and from the front pages of newspapers. And if it is objected that nobody can become President of the United States that way, the answer is that community organizers don’t want to become Presidents. They want to be organizers.
John Boyd was a genius of a different sort from Saul Alinsky. Boyd’s great insight was that the fighter pilot’s ability to turn inside the enemy’s radius applied not only to manuevering aircraft but strategically. I don’t know how Boyd versus Alinsky would look, or even if they would want to fight. But McCain the old attack pilot is on Barack’s six and BHO’s no Alinsky.
Tip Jar.
hmmm, where did i see a mention of mccain being inside obama’s ooda loop?
“I don’t know how Boyd versus Alinsky would look”
Nothing. They’re orthogonal. Boyd’s algorithm must work within the design constraints of the tools at hand (you can only turn a plane so fast, regardless of reflexes). Alinsky’s rules are just a description of human design constraints.
Obama by making himself the center of the campaign has effectively decided to lock himself in. This election was supposed to be about Bush. Obama made it about Obama. He can’t change his campaign without altering the image of himself, around which his political message is largely built. That’s why in a clash between policy and person, Obama will change the policy. He will flip-flop. This is the only degree of freedom he has.
McCain for deliberate or accidental reasons, waited until Obama was locked into a course. He let Obama build the edifice of himself, brick by brick, until it was as immovable as the statue of Ozymandias. BHO set the capstone in Germany. He was the One. Then McCain really pounced. He had to get inside Obama’s OODA loop once, strategically. And he did this by cannilly waiting until BHO was in a powerdive, his controls frozen by compressibility. Obama can maneuver tactically and talk about Republicans being “proud of their ignorance” which is another tin-eared example, if any were needed, of how unlike an organizer BHO is. He doesn’t seem to get tired of insulting the great unwashed. But that’s it. He is the One that he has made himself.
And McCain, despite the deficiencies of his own vehicle, might actually be able to shoot BHO down.
Obama would’ve been better served on his world tour by having frank private discussions with foreign leaders and military leaders in the field, and no speeches, just interviews.
Of course, he would have been even better served by finishing out his Senate term, running for Governor of Illinois, and then running for President after serving at least one term as Governor.
Obama’s got a tough line to walk. He can’t let Bush’s success overshadow his own message. And he can’t embrace Bush’s success without diluting his own “change” message. So I believe Obama has played the best hand – emphasize himself.
Is he vunerable to McCain’s attacks? Definitely. But as long as he keeps moving, keeps the media’s attention by his manuvering – as long as he doesn’t slow down to actually fight McCain toe to toe – he’ll win. Obama’s got to keep up the celebrity-like energy, keep moving and avoid the temptation to turn and fight. Obama did a pretty good job in the Clinton debates, maybe he can dance around McCain’s knockout punches too.
But can Mr.Bojangle’s keep up the old soft-shoe to the election? I don’t know. McCain is definitely “on his six” and firing away.
obama is already mired down and calling names. now he’s starting to lose some of the msm and early supporters. people actually like mccain the person; not so with the 2D man. pretty soon obama and his cadres will be shipping off to guyana, in preparation for his ascension.
And McCain, despite the deficiencies of his own vehicle, might actually be able to shoot BHO down.
Could that happen before the Obama coronation at the convention?
Oh, Bill R, I hope not. It would be such delicious irony for the left to have their self-centered way all through the summer, only to be shot down in flames in the fall. Even if it would be at best a hollow victory.
Too much like tweedle dee and tweedle dum to my liking.
I think the Obama campaign has two constraints. The first one is that he was selected by a process that favors the most Left wing candidate among the Democrats. He is held to their standards and policy preferences; witness the revolt among the socialists/Marxist among his supporters recently over things like Israel and how to handle the war against the Islamic jihad. Now, he can flip-flop and get away with it when it comes to supporters who are less ideologically rigid. That is especially true of those who accept that deception is part of the way you wage war. So, in his base of support that kind of buffers him from the discomfort of flip-flopping. But, there is another constraint on what he can get away with and how he can move. The independents and Middle Muddle folks. Now, there are independents who will not tolerate a candidate who is perceived to be deceptive. That’s a very hard constraint for Obama. The people who are what I call the Middle Muddle are so vapid and lazy that they would not know that they are being played if it bit them in the ass. He can get away with a lot there. Now, the question is which group is larger? The alert independents or the somnolent Middle Muddlers? If the latter, he has more wiggle room. If the former, he had better be careful.
Let’s say it became obvious to everyone that Obama really is an amateur after all, and that he’s going to brick the shot. At this point, would it even be possible for Hillary to steal the nomination?
I went to an Alinsky speech — if that’s the right word — in 1968. He was an entertaining and a likable fellow. But then I like a lot leftist, though I don’t much agree with them. I had a friend who was a Stalinist (even after the Berlin Wall fell) and I always kind of wondered where I was on the execution list.
Are people still feinting at Obama rallies? In the cool of February people are flopping over like penguins trying to sled on the ice, but now in the heat of July they got poles stuck up their butts (that’s a metaphor, by the way).
Everyone says the Celeb ad of McCain was aimed at Obama. I think it was aimed at the phenomena — to tie together Sen. Obama and his supporters. It said, “these people define themselves as Obama fanatics — and they are, alas, rather superficial. They fall for a one word slogan: Change. They faint in cool weather just because their middle aged heart throb is near. Are you one of them?”
So just as some define themselves as Obama supporters, every one else can define themselves as not being an Obama supporter. They can still vote for him, of course, but getting them to do that becomes harder.
Another problem is not so much the Obama Campaign’s doing as the political left’s mischief. By their lights, the only legitimate reason for you not voting for Sen. Obama is your racism. Every other reason — including that he pretty much won his Senate Seat and then moved to Iowa — is dismissed. So it is possible the “Wilder effect” is in effect — where voters tell pollsters what they think the pollsters (and media) want to hear. That means the Obama Campaign cannot trust the information they are getting. Bad for that whole OODA Loop thing. Could make you OODA Loopy.
Plus, the left does not want him to win. In ’92 they put a sock in it for Clinton. Sen. Obama might serve them better as a electoral martyr — a victim of dirty Republican tactics. They will never give the oppressed and even break!
Let me amend the last bit of my comment. The Left wants him to win as a committed leftist or go down in flames. The want him to be “The Regan of the Left,” not another triangulator.
Bush is a fighter pilot too. Either he’s not as good a one as McCain is, or he’s gotten dizzy from too many loops.
Let me amend my amend. “Reagan.”
Obama does the feints, …the women get the vapors.
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FLASH: ANTI-OBAMA BOOK — OBAMA NATION — TOPS BOTH NYT BESTSELLER LIST/BOOKSCAN FOR AUGUST 17… DEVELOPING…
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PELOSI FAILS TO CHART…
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Corsi is one hell of a researcher, but for many of his footnotes he needed to go no further than Obama’s own writing!
Of course Obama loves to talk down to ordinary “typical white people.”
First, he’s a Black Nationalist and his loathing of “typical white people” shines through in every pore. Second, he’s an elitist and his white supporters EAT THAT STUFF UP. They literally cannot get enough of it. Every time he says things like that, his staff and supporters go nuts.
hdgreene,
Why does the Left want Obama to go down in flames? Soros and all the socialist heavy hitters are working very, very hard for Obama to win. I think we would all be amazed at the things Soros probably has done to try to help the cause.
No, these people want it bad. They have invested a lot in the takeover of the Democratic Party. Plus, they want to build on the ’06 election results.
It’s just that dissatisfaction with President Bush is difficult to translate into enough support for a very Left wing candidate.
Soros and all the socialist heavy hitters are working very, very hard for Obama to win. I think we would all be amazed at the things Soros probably has done to try to help the cause. No, these people want it bad. They have invested a lot in the takeover of the Democratic Party. Plus, they want to build on the ‘06 election results.
This is the very problem that Alinsky-type organizing was intended to fight and the very phenomenon which is always its nemesis. The Bolshies, contrary to their claims, never organize. Their vehicle is the putsch. Just as soon as there’s a real mass movement, they show up to take charge. They let others organize then grab the controls and revise history to prove they led things from the start. And I think there really was a widespread resentment among Democrats over the Iraq war and maybe the economy that produced a mini-”revolutionary situation”, one that could be leveraged to take the leadership of the Democratic Party. Then the extreme left struck, which they historically do in two ways: by controlling the apparatus and control the propaganda machinery. The physical signatures of the hard left are the near continuous meetings; and the manic promulgation and enforcement of a Political Line. The hard left traditionally has two main types of operatives: the apparatchik and the propagandist and they are always in the service of the One. The One might sometimes be called the Locomotive of History, the Great Helmsman, the Dear Leader or Nuestro Commandante, but in essence it’s always the same position. I’m not saying that Obama wants to be a dictator. No, but certain tendencies on the hard left bias themselves toward scenarios where the masses are relegated to audience whose only purpose is to be led by enlightened leader. In other, weaker political cultures, this kind of runaway type of mania proved dangerous (Youtube link) but in America it is likely to cost the hard left yet another chance at electoral success.
If I’m right you’ll be able to observe an undercurrent of smoldering rebellion in the Democratic Party against the Obamaniks. Not against Obama himself in the first instance. Just the guys “trying to take advantage of him” or “riding on his coat-tails”. ‘If only BHO knew then he would set it right,’ so the saying will go. The antipathy will in the first instance be directed at the guys seen to be shutting the doors on old Democrats. Dissing the old timers. Democratic operatives may wake up to find their party changing overnight. That’s why there’s this pushback already. My guess is that it won’t get far in this case. There isn’t enough dry tinder on the ground.
obama is (in Heller’s scheme of things) the charismatic leader. i guess that makes hillary the (wo)man of action, that inevitably follows.
obama called for the full michigan and florida delegations to be seated. hillary has said she wants a floor vote. obama’s math is as good as his history.
This is almost like a read of Homage to Catalonia. If the Democrats lose this one, will they look back at the primaries as their Barcelona?
Point of information- McCain was an attack pilot, not a fighter pilot. The confusion maycome from the fact that in the Air Force any single pilot combat airplane is called a “fighter” whether it attacks ground targets or other airplanes. In the Navy attakc pilots actually have higher status than fighter pilots- aircraft carrier captains are usually attack pilots. Attacking a ground target requires a much different mindset than fighting other airplanes- single minded focus on a target, regardless of distractions and dangers, rather than rapidly responding to a 3D situation.
Too much can be made of this of course. McCain’s personality and Fruedian psychodrama have much more influence on what he does than his military training and experience.
I don’t know why John Boyd is regarded as such a great and original military genius. I think only because he learned to express basic military ideas in the lingo of an organization that is mainly about buying stuff.
As I tried to restate it: The left wants him to win as a left candidate. I assume that will result in his going down in flames but it is possible they do not. At the time of the 92 campaign, the left was letting Clinton run as a “New Democrat.” This time they think they have polarized the electorate enough to elect a left candidate on a left platform that will form a left mandate to quickly jam through another New Deal — call it a global war on warming and racism.
If Obama runs to the center and wins he may well stay there, as Bill Clinton pretty much did (they thought they had the perfect stealth lefty in Bill Clinton).
I think a moderate Obama who governs with the use of Republicans to check the ambitions of the left Democrats would be their nightmare. That would be an attractive option to a pragmatic politician — and a pragmatic Obama could move African Americans out of the left camp of the Democratic Party. I don’t see that as likely since I think Obama is a sincere leftist. But much of the left itself does not seem so sure. And even agree he might be an insincere leftist. Perhaps they view him as a nice guy they can use but who is politically unsound (from their point of view) and, by golly, he might be using them. Hence their howl over his FISA vote, a politically sound decision on his part as well as a practical one for someone who might be President (with the job of heading off terrorist attacks). Remember, Bill Clinton executed a mentally handicapped prisoner. He had to do it to get elected and the left pretty much shut up.
So I think they would like to see a truly backsliding Obama go down in flames because they don’t trust him anymore than I do. I could be projecting, of course.
As for George Soros: I thought he wanted to be Caesar. That would take an amendment to the Constitution. How much are those going for?
hdgreene,
I think a President Obama would govern from the Left, especially if Pelosi and Reid keep their majorities and add to them. I think Obama’s lame attempts to move center so far are seen for what they are, and only the dopey Middle Muddlers fall for it.
The most effective community organizer is someone who isn’t perceived to be a community organizer at all. Planting an idea and letting someone else take the credit is important because the only way anything gets done in the real world is by letting other people think they invented your own ideas. Besides, they take the fall if your plan goes bad.
Barack Obama loves the spotlight and it shows. The problem with the media glare, though, is that it can burn up anything it touches. When facing the limelight, it’s wise to wear shades, for it is easy to get blinded by the light. Barack Obama, like any wise politician, wants to be his own man. Yet, if he wanted to be his own man, he should have shunned the crowds and the media glare instead of courting them. The glare of celebrity can effectively turn a man into a prisoner of his own image and a puppet of his own entourage.
On one level, I feel sorry for Barack Obama and what his family is going through. The attention of the crowds, even the attention of enemies, can feel like a drug. It can make a man feel pumped up. It can give a man a false sense of his own importance. And given the dizzying success of his Senate campaign in 2004 and his epic welcome in Kenya two years later, it would take a strong man to not let such hero worship go to his head.
Yet, such adulation itself is dangerous not only to the health of a free republic but especially to Barack Obama himself and the issues he stands for. Barack Obama’s popularity feels like the sea rushing away from the beach, giving the impression that the sea is parting before one’s eyes. This is when I know I should run for the hills, for that is a sure sign of a tsunami soon hitting the shore, sweeping away all of the children picking up seashells and stranded fish on the bank.
Royalism is dangerous. In ancient Sumeria and Babylon, the king or his substitute was sacrificed on New Year’s Day to satisfy Inanna/Ishtar. The historical heart of the royal myth is the man who offers himself up as a sacrifice to satisfy the bloodlust of people who seek someone to blame for all of their problems. Adonis dies, and his sexiness comes from the knowledge that he is condemned to death. By converting Bush hatred into Obama worship, Obama is setting the stage for an orgy of hatred against himself.
While it may be fun for the time being to satirize Barack Obama’s pretensions, the worst pretensions belong not to him but to his worshippers. It may be fun to laugh at the Obama campaign’s silliness, but the joke is on those who cannot control their own emotions. The joke is on those who expect miracles that will not come true.
There are good reasons why the artist known as Prince became a recluse. Celebrity can mean that a man gets warped into a puppet on a string for adulating crowds, a boy toy for star-crazed women, and a cash cow for cynical managers. Perhaps the wisest thing the rockers of KISS ever did was put on makeup. Because of that makeup, the men of KISS could be men in their normal lives instead of getting treated as living gods.
There are joys in living in the shadows.
what in the world gives people the idea that obama would be anything but an unreconstructed leftist once in power? his voting record is clear. the triumph of hope over experience is never pretty. if you believe a word he says, do yourself a favor and put all your assets in a trust and throw away the key, for you are a first class chump.
The first item on Google news (which I don’t look at too often anymore) is Obama negotiating with Clinton.
It’s too early to beat Obama, and McCain can’t waste a good issue. But he can get inside the loop and create a real problem for Obama at the convention. I suspect the whole Middle east/ European trip had more to do with reassuring the democratic party that he could carry this thing, than aiming at the general electorate who aren’t watching now.
So you set up a meme about an aloof, out of touch, arrogant guy who can attract and wow crowds, but can’t close. The convention comes along, he wows the crowds, his minions do some rough handling of opponents. Everyone is looking at him as defined.
He is even or slightly ahead of McCain right now.
I’m curious. Has the Obama campaign tactics impressed Democrats?
Derek
hdgreene wrote:
“‘They faint in cool weather just because their middle aged heart throb is near. Are you one of them?’”
Alinsky wrote:
RULE 5: “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.”
The tire inflation gauge is a great piece of ridicule and a nice move inside of Sen. Obama’s loop.
Sen. McCain could make the following requests:
‘Everyone who thinks that proper tire inflation is the answer to US energy needs should vote for my opponent. The rest should vote for me.’
‘Everyone who thinks that meeting with Pres. Ahmadinejad is the way to proceed towards Mideast peace should vote for my opponent. The rest should vote for me.’
etc.
Barack Obama’s first and most grievous mistake was to make the campaign about himself.
And now thanks to the MSM giving him the lion’s share of exposure, he’s also transformed the election into a referendum on himself, when as Wretchard pointed out, it was originally supposed to be a referendum on Bush, with McCain as Bush’s proxy. Instead McCain is now merely the incidental figure to the Obama Referendum of 2008, and he just might ride that obscure distinction all the way to the White House.
The “people” became the mere backdrop for his mass rallies.
Why do I suddenly have the strong hunch that Obama’s acceptance speech at Invesco Field will turn out to be his Dukakis-in-the-tank moment, only multiplied by at least an order of magnitude?
If Obama runs to the center and wins he may well stay there, as Bill Clinton pretty much did (they thought they had the perfect stealth lefty in Bill Clinton).
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Clinton ran right and ruled left for the first two years as he give hillary the lead. the disasterous failure of her health care plan helped give the republicans an opening under newt to take over congress for the first time in decades. subsequently clinton signed a lot of republican legislation that he bitterly fought against. later he would claim credit for the same legislation.
Joshua said:
“Why do I suddenly have the strong hunch that Obama’s acceptance speech at Invesco Field will turn out to be his Dukakis-in-the-tank moment, only multiplied by at least an order of magnitude?”
My hunch is that B. Hussein would like to turn his acceptance speech into a Nurenburg Rally as in Riefenstahl’s “Triumph of the Will”. If Hussein over plays his hand then McCain might have him where he wants him. A good way to play McCain’s response would be to flick back and forth between Hussein’s acceptance speach and Riefenstahl’s movie or include the “Star Wars” medal awarding scene which was also based upon “Triumph of the Will”. They could do it in stages, i.e. first show Hussein speaking, then show Princess Leia giving the medal to Luke Skywalker, then fade out from Luke and Leia to Hitler addressing the troops at Nurenburg. Obviously the response should be satirical with a strong element of humor. The best way to take down a demagogue is to laugh at him.
The first week after the Democrat Convention will be critical. We should not get our hopes up but there is a possibility that Hussein will implode McGovern style. Such an implosion would have major impact because Hussein would pull down the MSM and much of the liberal elite with him.
On one level, I feel sorry for Barack Obama and what his family is going through. The attention of the crowds, even the attention of enemies, can feel like a drug. It can make a man feel pumped up. It can give a man a false sense of his own importance. And given the dizzying success of his Senate campaign in 2004 and his epic welcome in Kenya two years later, it would take a strong man to not let such hero worship go to his head.
Yet, such adulation itself is dangerous not only to the health of a free republic but especially to Barack Obama himself and the issues he stands for. Barack Obama’s popularity feels like the sea rushing away from the beach, giving the impression that the sea is parting before one’s eyes. This is when I know I should run for the hills, for that is a sure sign of a tsunami soon hitting the shore, sweeping away all of the children picking up seashells and stranded fish on the bank.
If a Soros-like figure is trying to control Obama, their strategy is probably to make him dependent on this sustained wave of mass hysteria. They’re going to use him up like a political Sid Vicious. Their little stage puppet. If they keep him hooked on the hysteria it ensures that BHO will need them more than he needs the people. The “people” can’t pay for these huge ad campaigns, but the big boys can.
But if Obama paused and thought for a moment, he could turn the tables on his backers. He’s got strengths of his own. Intelligence, articulateness, personability. If, as someone suggested, he finished his Senate term, did a stint as Governor of Illinois and went on a listening tour of the frontlines of Terror, Obama would be much, much stronger in 2012. And most important, he wouldn’t need the junk adulation wave underwritten by the Svengalis of the world. He’d be independent; largely his own man; a force on his own. As it is, if BHO gets into the White House on the rent-a-rock-star wave, with its cloud of spangles and jangling electric guitars, he’d be even more dependent on his backers to stay there. Stay on the wave and he just might wash up on the White House lawn. Used up but there. But he if wants greatness, which lies further than the White House, he needs to get off the wave.
In addtion to Boyd’s Loop, McCain’s actions can be explained a number of ways. My Italian grandfather had a saying which he preached constantly: “With a song it’s hard to know when to start. But when in doubt, wait.”
Wait. See. (Assess. Then act.)
One can easily see that this proverb has applications for many situations. Over the last few months, McCain has let Obama’s balloon fill to the popping point. Then he waited until Obama’s world tour was complete, and came in with a needle.
Obama by making himself the center of the campaign has effectively decided to lock himself in. This election was supposed to be about Bush. Obama made it about Obama. He can’t change his campaign without altering the image of himself, around which his political message is largely built.
Wretchard,
I should have cited this when I wrote about my Italian grandfather’s proverb. It illustrates my point rather well.
As it is, if BHO gets into the White House on the rent-a-rock-star wave, with its cloud of spangles and jangling electric guitars, he’d be even more dependent on his backers to stay there. Stay on the wave and he just might wash up on the White House lawn. Used up but there. But he if wants greatness, which lies further than the White House, he needs to get off the wave.
Wretchard’s comment here is the real dilemma for Obama. To put this into a reality of the campaign, we need to know what Michelle Obama’s thinks about this formulation. Some may also feel that BHO himself is a captive of his own arrogance and nothing that ANYONE thinks is quite as important as his own thoughts on this.
That would require him to be a relatively authentic person, Wretchard.
Nothing could be farther from the the truth. His malleable artificial persona is perfectly suited to be carried by a “junk adulation wave.”
In fact he has been tailoring it for just that purpose for years.
I wonder how many people still believe the big lie that big money is not behind BO?
Starling outlined AP’s contribution to this baseless myth here: The Belmont Club Death is lighter than a feather
(near the end of comment thread)
Today, he noticed this article Big donors are the key to Obama’s record haul – International Herald Tribune which confirmed his analysis.
Barry has become fully addicted to running on empty (promises) for many, many years. The adrenaline charge of getting away with it must approach that of robbing a bank.
The Icon for Change is not about to change himself.
The irony is that people who get their political knowledge through the irony soaked medium of cable comedy sell themselves into bondage to a cult movement for a traditional Chicago politician who is completely indeed may be pathologically lacking in any capacity for humor or sense of irony.
“Intelligence, articulateness, personability”, well I guess that is the advantage of living overseas. All I have ever seen is a guy who stumbles when trying to give a speech that isn’t on a teleprompter. A guy who talks down to the ‘little people’. A guy who actually believes that he is the one we have been waiting for.
Bullshark
It goes, “We are the ones we have been waiting for” from Alice Walker. Take a look at the ideas of the movement that Obama represents. Can you imagine this actually taking over THe United States of America?
When Barry exploited and abused the people and history of Selma, falsely attributing his conception to them, the junk adulation wave indeed grew, but the junk was entirely of his own making.
Wretchard: If, as someone suggested, he finished his Senate term, did a stint as Governor of Illinois and went on a listening tour of the frontlines of Terror, Obama would be much, much stronger in 2012.
Back on the first of May I suggested the exact same thing to Barack:
An Open Letter to Barack Obama: Get Out Now, 2012 Beckons
He didn’t listen, of course. I think he’s going to subsequently wish, however, that he had followed that course of action.
As Charles said:
Clinton ran right and ruled left for the first two years as he give hillary the lead. the disastrous failure of her health care plan helped give the republicans an opening under newt to take over congress for the first time in decades. subsequently clinton signed a lot of republican legislation that he bitterly fought against. later he would claim credit for the same legislation.
I think Bill Clinton produced a “once bitten, twice shy” effect on the Left. When Hillary’s Nationalized Health Care fiasco was fiascoing, I thought Bill was a much better politician than that. So I figured he was not only giving Hillary enough rope to hang herself, he was showing her how to tie the knot.
I am not trying to suggest he was some sort of centrist. He was a Bill Clintonist. The fact that the Democrats lost Congress was good for Bill because it neutralized the left and made them dependent on him. It was bad for the party not because they lost Congress but because they lost their moderate members, leaving the Pelosi Democrats in charge. And their idea is to polarize the electorate and try to grab 51 percent of the vote by turning out their enthusiastic base and souring everyone else. They think it is working. And they do not want to elect a “Barack Obamaist.”
So while many on the left have given their hearts to Barack they need constant reassurance. The way to have Barack win is to protest when Barack wanders to the center but let him do what he needs to do. But I ain’t seeing that.
When the Obama campaign lets on that they will compromise on oil production, the left protests and they step back. They end up inflating tire inflation into some sort of solution. You pay 75 cents at the “Big Air” machine and Obama takes credit. “It was my idea!” Not the way to win elections.
Not only has the left insisted on a blood oath from Obama, they want a constant supply of new blood.
I don’t think Obama has to wait until 2012. He can run now and, if he fails, blame it on the nasty Republicans stealing the election. Then in 2012 he’ll be even stronger, a victim like his constituency. Everyone will forget Michelle’s comment about “you only have one chance at Barack”. If you remember, you’re a racist.
Or is there some reason he has to run now, such as a suppressed scandal or an inconvenient fact, such as his lack of eligibility for the Presidency, that he figures he can keep covered up long enough to gain office, like Clinton’s doxies?
“Or is there some reason he has to run now”
To a solipsist, there is no one but me, and no time but now.
Besides, the odds of someone so ludicrously unqualified getting a major party Presidential nomination are so long, you have to go for it. Look at all the John Edwardses who just missed.
If I find out that my blind date with the great personality is Charlize Theron, you think I’m saving anything for the second date?
Our erudite host is pointing us in an interesting direction.
As he says, the Alinsky and “New Left” ideas were critiques of the Leninist heresies of Marxism. The very name, “Bolshevik,” or majoritarian, has always been a fraud. Having won one party congress vote in 1896, these “bolsheviks” created the rationalization of the vanguard of the working class to explain the uncomfortable truth that actual workers have always been more interested in immediate quality of life than serving a glorious cause. This non-majority majoritarianism then leads to the doctrine of ends justifying means as deceit piles upon delusion. Eventually, the central tenet of Marx – the role of economic determinism as the impersonal engine of history – becomes subsumed in the cult of personality. The “Great Man” theory of history on steroids.
Now, we see Senator Barack Obama presented as the indispensible one, the vessel of grace, the hope of our age.
Wretchard is absolutely right, Obama is a nullification of Alinsky’s philosophy. (Perhaps this is why we haven’t seen a single testimonial from a beneficiary of Obama’s community organizer days. His tenure at the Annenberg Challenge might actually stand in for his entire do-gooding career.)
Robert Speirs: in 2012 Barack will be even stronger after losing to McCain? I don’t think so.
You don’t seem to fully understand the Clinton folks. They’ve been punked by the Obama crowd and shat upon. Have you forgotten Obama losing all those primaries after being anointed by the media? His support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
The Clinton’s are either going to slaughter him if he loses this election or humble him in a fashion that it might as well be a slaughter.
The fact of the matter is this: if Hillary chooses to run as a write-in candidate or third party sort, she will pull more votes than Barack.
And that’s a fact, Jack.
But if Obama paused and thought for a moment, he could turn the tables on his backers. He’s got strengths of his own. Intelligence, articulateness, personability.
So then you’d have Obama making mortal enemies of the raging moonbats with his flip-flopping; mortal enemies of whoever’s provided the funding so far for reneging on the deal; and mortal enemies of whatever small percentage of KKK-sympathizers are still lurking around the country.
This does not sound like a recipe for a long and healthy life to me.
Wretchard,
I’m honored.
BTW loved:
But McCain the old attack pilot is on Barack’s six and BHO’s no Alinsky.
Let me note that McCain came out with something on the Paris Hilton bit within hours. Obama has so far said nothing. And the tire gauges are another brilliant move.
McCain the internet dunce is beating BHO the internet genius because McCain is operating on internet time and BHO is not. McCain gets the essence. It is not about fancy locations. It is about time.
Obama is only as strong as the Left in this country is. And if the Left is able to rope in more of the Middle Muddlers than the Republicans are able to win over independents, it’s game over. BHO in and of himself, really, is quite unimportant – despite the ascension of the “cult of personaltiy.” If the coalition is weak, it does not matter who their leader is, it’s going nowhere.
Let me add that the same shift happened with France vs Germany in WW2. The German tempo was their real surprise.
Wretchard wrote:
“”"If I’m right you’ll be able to observe an undercurrent of smoldering rebellion in the Democratic Party against the Obamaniks.”"”
Interesting observation. I think that one thing that undid Hillary’s campaign was that the upper echelons of the Democratic Party has a lot of people who don’t like the Clintons — a phenomenon they’ve tried to hide from most of us for years. When upper-tier Democrats get pissed off at you, they will make sure you fall when you stumble. It’s a delicious irony to me that the “One They’ve Been Waiting For” to replace the Clintons is someone they may be getting wary of now, albeit because of his underlings, rather than the man himself.
Schadenfreude, anyone?
Wretchard says:
If I’m right you’ll be able to observe an undercurrent of smoldering rebellion in the Democratic Party against the Obamaniks. Not against Obama himself in the first instance.
I have already observed that at a number of lefty sites. esp. the pro Hillary ones.
Good call.
I like how Bill Clinton gave Sen. Obama a non-endorsement endorsement. Since the MSM wants to tie Sen. McCain to President Bush, they should ask the President the same question as regards the Republican nominee. If he says McCain is ready to be President, they got them hooked together. Just play Bill Clinton’s remark (gee, I dunno is anyone ready?) side by side with the President’s. Bill Clinton sure knows how to distance himself.
I think Hillary will force Sen. Obama to offer her the VP slot and then she’ll say, “I want to stay in the Senate and keep up the fight for the American People there.” Thus she would signal her supporters to vote for Sen. McCain in ’08 so she can take a shot in 2012.
The Obama people should be sure of the answer before asking the question. They might be digging another knife out of their backs.
Wretchard, I think your comment at 11:43 yesterday presupposes a maturity of personality development that all data indicates to be lacking in Obama. His narcissism and the associated myopia and emotional fragility were all implicit in his decision to run at all, given his complete lack of real-world qualification for the job. The grandiosity of that move, even given the assumed ass-kissing that the Left might have done to get him to agree, is truly unfathomable.
Since then, of course, we have been treated to no end of Emperor’s New Clothes moments confirming what Krauthammer so eloquently documented a couple of weeks back, that this is no ordinary politician brand of narcissism. He is a man without a true self, whose (emotional) abandonment by his mother early in life has left him like the Wicked Witch in Snow White. He must search unremittingly for acknowledgment and adulation, doing whatever is needed to obtain it, and thereby never developing a sense of who he really is. One doesn’t just grow out of a personality disturbance like this.
He is a REAL empty suit, and there is no way for him to grow out of this without crashing and burning, like a severe alcoholic, and maybe not even then. So a commonsense move like the one you suggest is not in the cards — unless maybe it’s way down the road, after Michelle and the kids leave him, he spends his time at Betty Ford, and he then does penance by caring for the Clintons in their nursing home days.
There is a part of me that feels pity for Barack Obama. All during his young life his biological father, then his stepfather, and then finally his mother all abandoned him. If he’s a narcissist, gee, I wonder why? And of course ALL the significant adults in his young life feed him Marxist garbage. No wonder it has remained within the sinews of his mind and heart.
Their behavior towards their parental responsibilities is not at all atypical of a lot of Leftist true believers. God damn them all. People who treat infants and children this way should be shown to the Devil’s inner chambers.
Let me add, personable I’ll buy. Good material for a talk show host. But I’m not convinced he’s particularly intelligent, and his articulateness seems tied to a teleprompter. The more I see, the more he seems like a beneficiary of affirmative action all the way down the line.
Fred,
OTOH, another way to look at it is HE took HIS children to Mr Wright’s “Church” through their most formative years.
God knows what else he, and his lovely wife Michelle inflicted upon them.
Responsibility has to be levied somewhere in the cycle, doesn’t it?
Doug,
I agree. I often see victimizers as also having been victims too at one point. Plenty of blame to go around, no doubt about it.
Bob Hawkins said,
“If I find out that my blind date with the great personality is Charlize Theron, you think I’m saving anything for the second date?”
That would be the only strategy with a possibility of success, Bob, if you knew she was dating a hunk like me the next night:
You’d have to allude to all the goodies you might provide in the future that she would miss out on if she were to go with her emotions w/anyone else, (me) and dropped you like a cold fish.
You could pick up pointers for good lines from the millions of ludicrous promises based on nothing, being bandied about in the run-up to this election.
The metaphor of the two candidates as maneuvering, dogfighting fighter airplanes fails to depict a role for the voting masses. The crowds of voters coming to the voting centers will decide who wins, no matter how the debating points are scored.
It seems that a clear majority of the voters is ready and eager to disempower the Rupublicans and to empower the Democrats. That is the most important phenomenon to understand. There has been a massive, significant shift in the electorate’s attitude.
I wish I could say that McCain might turn back that tide, but so far I have not seen him compelling the dissatisfied voters to reconsider fundamental issues. He is not compelling any fundamental debate about the future budget, about future military needs, about the government’s proper role.
Instead, he is talking about himself being honorable and about Obama being a celebrity. There are only four months left to argue the issues effectively, and it looks like McCain might fritter all of them away. McCain doesn’t impress me as a clever, daring dogfighter. He seems to me to be mentally exhausted, reduced to hoping that Obama will make enough mistakes for Obama to lose.
Obama might lose for all the reasons that the above comments point out, and I hope he does lose, but that result will happen only because a significant portion of the electorate decides to split its votes — voting for Democrats in every position but preferring McCain over Obama for President.
That would hardly be a victory for the Republicans. It would hardly be a victory for McCain. Rather, it would merely be a mass decision by the voters to apply some brakes to the Democrats’ momentum for the next four years.
Both my parents are still alive, and I have six siblings, of whom five are married. I am married and have a voting-age daughter. I have three nephews and nieces of voting age. Of this group of 19 people (including me), I am the only one who will vote Republican. All the other 18 will vote Democrat, no matter what is said by either Obama or McCain during now and the election. I know, because I argue with my family about politics every day by e-mail.
The Iraq War is the most important factor. I have supported the war consistently, but I recognize that the Bush Administration discredited itself horribly by overselling the WMD threat and by its interrogation experiments. It doesn’t matter what I think and argue about these issues. The revelation that the 2001 anthrax attacks were done by a US military researcher is yet another nail in the coffin of the public’s serious concern about WMD threats.
The other important factor is the general rationality of our country’s health-care system. The Republicans have held the Presidency for 20 of the last 28 years and have accomplished practically nothing to rationalize the system. McCain offers nothing new. For many voters, only a Democratic administration will engage this issue with the effort it deserves.
Eventually the health-care issue will raise to prominence in this election campaign, and I expect that this issue will overwhelm the current issue about gasoline prices. Most people are much more worried about medical expenses than they are worried about $4/gallon gasoline.
Geez, Mike. I’d think you’d want to be a little more discreet about revealing that you come from a family of deaf, dumb and blind idiots.
Thrasymachus (8:08pm),
The Air Force has attack pilots for the A-7 and A-10 to name a couple. They were not the kind of flying assignments anyone from the fighter community volunteered for. Those who received such assignments were always rather glum and were teased relentlessly until they transferred. Nevertheless, I don’t think it has anything to do with McCain’s mindset. Being shot down and enduring years of torture in a POW camp certainly did though.
The “OH” factors are playing in the DEMCC. If Benj is correct the battle for hearts and minds is playing out among all those super delegates. Nancy Soros split by Hillery’s and “OH” could be claiming control of the party. But will either Sorosis or Hillerheisus column be flexible enough to be led, or will they have to be purged from the ranks. It will be very instructive. Will it be indicative of just how far left the Dems have gone or just show us whether they are Clint-Alinskyists or have more in common with Uncle Joe (Kennedy).
Wonderful post Wretchard, thanks.
How’d This Happen
The haphazard and delinquent effort to catch up to McCain’s energy policy blitz (which has been going on for weeks now) also tells us something else: Obama thinks he can ignore whatever McCain is doing.
It is not surprising for the candidate who considers himself already President to disregard what his opponent is up to.
The temptation is great to try to run out the clock and get by on pablum and pretty pictures.
But Obama does it at his peril . He is now struggling to find a way to counteract the McCain energy offensive.
You have the feeling that each day will bring a new challenge/gambit from the McCain camp (What’s next? Jiffy Lube tune-ups for the entire press corps?) and the rest of the day will be spent watching Obama and his media allies trying to swat away the incoming fire.
It is what happens when you take a victory lap months before the first votes are cast.
NahnCee:
“Geez, Mike. I’d think you’d want to be a little more discreet about revealing that you come from a family of deaf, dumb and blind idiots.”
——-
Thanks for starting my day with a great laugh!
For those interested in Boyd’s lessons applied to business, I highly recommend Chet Richards’ book, Certain To Win. Richards does a great job of presenting the fundamental principles behind OODA and then applying them to businesses & organizations.