Four years ago, polls consistently showed Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. In fact, not in the entirety of that campaign cycle did Trump ever take the lead in the RealClearPolitics average. Biden's lead was consistent, and significant, with his smallest RCP Average lead being four points.
The 2024 cycle is nothing like that. While the polls are certainly tighter this year than four years ago, Biden hasn't led in the RealClearPolitics Average since mid-September, and Trump has a current RCP Average lead of +2.3 points.
In 2020, Trump and his supporters were convinced that the polls were rigged. And, in hindsight, it does seem like the polls did underestimate Trump's support in 2020. The final RealClearPolitics Average in 2020 was +7.2 points for Biden, and his national popular vote margin was +4.5 points, and that's with the benefit of the massive mail-in voting scheme imposed by the Democrats. Even then, his victory hinged on the slimmest of margins in just a few states.
Related: It Looks Like Biden’s Goose Is Cooked
Those saying the polls were rigged may not have been entirely off, because Trump's support wasn't fully captured in 2016 polling either. But, pundits were mercilessly mocked for suggesting that the polls were wrong — even after the election.
But now the left is starting to feel what it's like.
A new New York Times/Siena College poll was the latest gut punch to the left's hopes of holding onto the White House in November. Not only is Joe Biden underwater by 21 points in his approval ratings, but Trump leads him nationally by five points with registered voters and four points with likely voters. It's his largest lead ever from this pollster, and is due to significant gains Trump has made with typically reliably Democrat-voting demographics. This is hardly the first poll to show these trends either.
And now, according to a report from Politico, this poll is "causing widespread freakout among Dems" :
Let’s start with a few of the reactions in our private feeds before we plunge into the toplines. The IDs almost don’t matter; we can assure you you’ve heard of all of these people:
- “This has the feel of a slow motion car crash. Trump is deeply, epically flawed. I don’t believe women are tied. Perhaps Biden yet can rally the base. But it’s getting late. If you’re not a bedwetter now, you’re not paying attention.”
- “Obviously these polls are a snapshot in time and the election is a long ways away, but it’s pretty concerning. Voter sentiment on the economy is stubbornly low. There’s major slippage among voters of color. This should be a wakeup call that things have to improve and change. The reaction can’t be to go all cross-tabs truther on Nate Cohn or tell people to calm down.”
- “3/7 speech” — State of the Union — “is all important.”
"Cross-tabs truther." Classic.
I can't help being amused at how the same people who mocked Trump supporters (and Trump himself) for denying what the polls were saying in 2020 are now convinced the polls showing Biden losing are wrong. And, for what it's worth, Joe Biden has been a poll truther, too. He’s been publicly claiming that those who think he's losing in the polls are reading "the wrong polls."
Historically speaking though, if they polls are wrong, then things are even worse for Biden than the polls are showing.
All I can say is that I’m loving watching the left sweat.
