The Worldwide Evolution of Life Expectancy
My father’s life expectancy at birth was 48 years. He survived to be 83, and he was by several years younger at his death than his brothers and sister at their deaths. He and they lived through what has been called “the demographic transition,” from low life expectancies to high.
A recent paper in the Lancet charts the worldwide evolution of life expectancy between 1970 and 2010. Life expectancy has fallen in only 4 of the 187 countries with populations of 50,000 or more, the four being Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Ukraine, and Belarus. In the first two, AIDS was the cause; in the second two, alcohol.
Worldwide life expectancy between 1970 and 2010 rose at a rate of 3-4 years per decade, except for the 1990s, when the rate of improvement was considerably lower. In Asia and Latin America, the average age at death rose by 1 year every 2 years, a startling rate of improvement. But the greatest improvement in recent years has been in sub-Saharan Africa: life expectancy in Angola, Ethiopia, Niger, and Rwanda has increased by 10–15 years since 1990.
According to the authors, two medical interventions account for this: first the availability of anti-retroviral drugs to treat AIDS, and second the availability of both insecticide-treated mosquito nets and artemisin-combination treatment regimes for malaria.
I’m glad you included discussion of the infant mortality rate. I have long suspected that led to a key misunderstanding, to wit: What was the life expectancy for various eras (from Biblical to 1900) when the infant/child mortality is removed from the mix? The Bible mentions “three-score and ten”. I suspect that was a better ball park than is commonly given credit until we get to the post World War Two era.
Researching my family history I came across a diagram of a family cemetery. More than half the graves were for infants. This was late 19th century. My mother thinks the area suffered an outbreak of some fever at that time. I can only say that the reality of infant mortality is terrible.
Yet I can also find ancestors that after homesteading on the frontier and raising a family left, at about the age of sixty, to go deeper into unsettled areas to establish a new farm. I cannot imagine many at the same age today willing to face those hardships. This hardy couple and several others I researched lived past 80.
Whenever life seems difficult, I think about these hardy ancestors. They really did know hardship.
According to your Bible, life expectancy used to be hundreds and hundreds of years.
Excellent! Love the last paragraph’s bold walk into the minefield. Few, very few, are willing to go there, but he raises one of the defining issues of our time. We have to get a handle on how long is too long, without surrendering any authority to the state. There are no quick answers.
Thank you for the most interesting and informative article. Two reasons I come to PJMedia: (1) Information like this; (2) Entertaining comment from many well read and humorous participants.
But the last paragraph is one I will add to my personal repertoire to ask liberals a great many questions about their wishes and intentions.
I will bring up what the good Doctor dares not. If, as science tells us, all men are not created equal in abilities, are we degrading the average human genetic stock?
Please understand, I do not propose a solution to the obvious problem, but I believe the unwillingness of most to ask the question speaks volumes about the prospects for our goals.
The third man from the right in that cartoon looks like Hitler.
This study needs amplification. I am ninety years old and have always believed that my longevity was due to my interest in sex and alcohol. But this study indicates that the HIV virus (in Africa) and alcohol (in the Ukraine and Belarus)are conducive to a short life. Should I give up sex and alcohol, and live a longer life, or should I continue as I have always done and die young? Please help me with my decision.