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Rubin Reports

Obama Middle East Policy: Wrong Team, Wrong Ideas

June 7th, 2013 - 8:22 am

In the Middle East, to paraphrase President Barack Obama’s mentor, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, the dodo birds are coming home to roost.

At this moment, the administration’s policy team consists of CIA director John Brennan, father of the “”moderate” Islamism-and-the-Muslim Brotherhood-are-good school; the Secretary of State John Kerry who thinks he is going to make Israel-Palestinian peace in one month;  the know-nothing Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel; the chilling ideologue Samantha Powers as UN ambassador; and the dupe of the Benghazi scandal Susan Rice rewarded by being made national security adviser.

Can things get any  more Alice in Wonderland? But what’s really happening in the region.

In Egypt, the country is falling into anti-Americanism and tyranny, the United States is embarking on a new policy in Syria that one can see won’t work. What is the solution? Simply to support moderate and anti-Islamist forces while opposing Islamists and terrorists. Except if you wait too long there will be no good forces left to help anymore.

Egypt first.  The Supreme Constitutional Court, the country’s highest court, has now ruled that the January 2012 Shura Council election for the upper house of parliament was unconstitutional. The same decision was rendered for the Islamist-dominated body that wrote the new Constitution. But the chief judge said that the Constitution was not annulled.

In short, there is total confusion. Indeed, it isn’t even clear that the new election for the lower house of Parliament will be held. Egypt is in maximal mess phase.

Meanwhile, what allegedly friendly country just sentenced the son of a U.S. cabinet official to five years in prison? Answer: Egypt, to the son of Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood. Crime: Supporting democracy. Four more Americans received the same sentence.

The Egyptian Islamist regime does not fear America nor does it show gratitude for President Obama’s help in its taking and consolidation of power. Offices were closed and prison sentences of up to five years—for 27 people–were meted out. Many of those charged fled the country. Among the groups closed were the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute.

Secretary of State John Kerry said the United States was “deeply concerned” but of course the Egyptian government knew America wouldn’t do anything except keep shipping in tear gas and provided financial and political support.

After getting into power in part due to U.S. help, the Egyptian court called the promotion of democracy a form of “soft imperialism.” Get it? They get into power by a vote and then that’s the end of free elections.

History shows, says the court’s verdict, that U.S. policies believes that its “interests as best served by totalitarian dictatorships and harmed by genuine democracies….The U.S.—fearing democracy ushered in by Egypt’s popular revolt—has used funding to take the revolution off its path.”

So even as the U.S. government supports the Egyptian revolt and regime, the ruling elite claims that it opposed them. Thus the pro-Muslim Brotherhood policy doesn’t win any influence or benefits since the Brotherhood accepts the help and then declares that America is its enemy.

Thus, for friendship toward America; how about peaceful intentions toward neighbors? Here we have possibly the most embarrassing open microphone scandal in history. The televising of a meeting held by President Muhammad Morsi allowed listeners to hear plans for military attacks on Ethiopia because of a dam that country is building on the Nile in order to generate electricity. Participants didn’t know the meeting was being aired on live state television.

Egyptian leaders discussed covert operations to destroy the dam or giving covert support to rebel groups. This gives some hints of what longer-term policy toward Israel might well be. Advocates of aggressive action included moderate politicians.

How about cultural news? Well the Culture Minister Alaa Abdel-Aziz has just installed an Islamist professor of Arabic literature by firing the head of Egypt’s National Library and Archives. Also fired were the heads of the opera house, book publishing, and fine arts sections of the ministry.

The ministry’s foreign relations’ director resigned in protest, saying that the minister was seeking to Islamize Egyptian culture and put religion in place of national identity.

What other trends are visible? How about the sentencing of a Christian lawyer to one year in prison and a fine for allegedly insulting God and the Quran? This is one of many such trials. The complaint was brought by Islamist lawyers. Previously, a Christian schoolteacher had been sentenced to six years for, among other things, allegedly insulting Morsi. Last December it was the turn of a Christian who posted a short film claimed to be derogatory to Islam and who was sentenced to three years. Two Christian children, aged nine and ten years old, were put in juvenile detention for allegedly tearing up a Koran.

But perhaps the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood supports “Arab Spring” type revolts elsewhere? No. Leaders asserted that the demonstrations against the Turkish Islamist government that have broken out on a grassroots’ level are in fact a war against Islam by showing that Islamist regimes have failed. It’s interesting that the Muslim Brotherhood considers the Turkish counterpart of being that kind of government while the U.S. government doesn’t.

So, opposing the spread of democracy, viewing the United States as an enemy, putting Islamist power as the highest value, oppressing Christians, and fundamentally transforming Egypt into an anti-American, anti-Christian, oppressive dictatorship. These are the hallmarks of contemporary Egypt. And there are scores of other examples that can be cited.

In Syria, reports Reuters on May 31 from Beirut, the Saudis have now clearly changed policy in line with the United States. The Saudi government is now frightened of its own support of radical Salafist Islamists in the rebel forces. They are pressuring Qatar to stop backing the hardliners though it is not clear how successful this effort is at present. Qatar has become the main backer of the Muslim Brotherhood financially.

The new policy is being influenced by military failures now that the Assad regime has more Russian, Iranian, and Hizballah backing. But it is also prompted by worries that Syria might be taken over by anti-American, anti-Saudi Islamist radicals. This concern was heightened by American observance of what was happening in rebel-held northern Syria. Another factor is the disorder in rebel ranks seen at the recent summit meeting in Turkey and the intransigence of the Muslim Brotherhood exile leadership to accept other forces into the direction of the battle.

At a critical moment when the United States and European Union were going to send arms directly, fear of the dominant Islamist forces—which also include a growing al-Qaida presence—is holding up this escalation. And without more arms the rebels cannot win.

This has led the United States to postpone handing over $63 million dollars in promised aid to the rebels’ Syrian Opposition Coalition which is dominated by the Brotherhood.

U.S. policy is still in disorder but has now changed. Up to now, the Obama Administration has favored a rebel victory, disregarding the growth of Muslim Brotherhood, Salafist, and al-Qaida forces as well as worrisome signs of ethnic massacres. Amazingly enough, it backed a Muslim Brotherhood dominated group as the rebel leadership even when that organization kept out others!

Now, in theory, the Obama Administration is switching to support for moderates, the policy that this column has advocated for almost two years and had been disregarded. It is too late, however. The rebel groups have formed; they control much territory, ideological blocs have hardened; and there are relatively few moderates. Moreover, the Free Syrian Army controls few forces on the ground.

Note by the way that the domination of the rebels by the Islamists have kept Christians and Druze, as well as Alawites, on the regime’s side. That is more than 25 percent of the population. Another 15 percent, the Kurds, are in effect neutral seeking to maintain their autonomy won by their militia in the civil war. It is probably too late to change these positions

So the real alternatives of the Western states may be reduced to three:

–Withhold aid and live with a long-term civil war in which the Assad regime controls half the country while Russia, Iran, and Hizballah claim a partial victory.

–Give strong backing to rebel forces regardless of ideology and see Syria taken over by a radical Islamist government in which the Brotherhood rules, the Salafists operate freely, and al-Qaida establishes a strong base.

–Say that they are supporting moderate forces which have few soldiers and relatively little support within Syria. This policy won’t work but will look good. Meanwhile, Sunni Islamist radicals and a pro-Iran dictatorship battle for predominance.

The likely option is the last one.

Isn’t it time for the U.S. government, journalists, and academics to admit that they’ve been getting the Middle East all wrong? That they have often reversed the good and bad guys so that they have been backing the bad guys, anti-Americans, and even terrorists?  Haven’t the contradictions gotten to be so obvious that they cannot be denied any more?

American interests are with the rebels of Turkey and Iran; the moderate Muslim-Christian opposition in Lebanon, with Israel and the Kurds; with the real moderates in Egypt; with Jordan’s kingdom which small amounts of money would help enormously; and, yes, often even with the Gulf Arab states (except Qatar)  if  only given the American leadership they are begging for.

Western and American interests are not with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Tunisia, and Syria; not with the stealth Islamist regime in Turkey for which the Obama Administration just renewed a waiver on sanctions against Iran (!); not with the rejectionist Palestinian Authority, not with some “moderate Islamist” faction of the Iranian regime.

It is past time that this be recognized. But it is a task requiring a Churchill, not the churlish.

 

Note: Regarding the opening paragraph of this article: Referring to the September 11 attacks, Reverend Wright said, “The chickens are coming home to roost,” implying that past American policy–i.e., not supporting radicals, terrorists, and anti-American forces, were responsible.

 

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Figured I’d post this again, in light of the complete chaos ensuring in Syria, and with AQ and Russia.

http://misterchambers.com/2013/01/28/obamas-syrian-debacle/

It’s ironic that our old Cold War foe, Russia, is trying to fight al Qaeda and really only wants our help. But for some reason, the Obama administration is determined to support the Syrian rebels – i.e. al Qaeda and the Taliban – and oust Assad.

The PKK was assassinated into submission by AQIM in France, and by their associates HuT in Russia. So much of this revolves around the heroine trade, involving not only the Russian mob, which is very Kurdish, and AQ, but also the French, Unione Corse (think The French Connection), and of course the Muslim Brotherhood – particularly Turkey and Qatar.

The truth stings, but there it is for anyone who has had enough half-baked conspiracies.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Yesterday, CNN had an interview with Ann and Mitt Romney. She is a very decent and intelligent person. And Mitt would have made a great President. He commented that American foreign was a complete disaster, and he mentioned Egypt by name. America and the world would have been so much better off with Mitt as President, and the economy would have taken off too.

On another note, in case people don't click the link to the Egyptian high court by Barry Rubin above, here is a small excerpt:

"While foreign funding is ostensibly geared towards supporting human rights activities and democracy advocacy, the underlying aim is to "undermine Egypt's national security and lay out a sectarian, political map that serves US and Israeli interests," the verdict read.

"The US – fearing democracy ushered in by Egypt's popular revolt – has used funding to take the revolution off its path," the verdict continued.

Interestingly... but stupid. Drivel from the high court of Egypt. Let's see them back up those strong words by turning down the billions in U.S. military and economic aid.

We observe that even the highest court in Egypt openly equates everything evil and anathema to Israel and Zionism. The "peace treaty" with Egypt is only as good as Israeli military deterrence.

It's time to stop our worshipping of "democracy" as if it were some kind of higher religion. Democracy presupposes that the society's institutions are strong enough to withstand the forces of revolution and extremist ideology. A military dictatorship is almost always preferable to an extremist ideological revolution.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Well, I guess that is progress if the administration realizes, even too late, that backing either side is a mistake. If I were going to bet on the outcome right now I'd have to say that the Assad regime stands a good chance of surviving through the backing of Iran and Hezbollah and of course the Russians and Chinese to a certain extent.
1 year ago
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