Weather Nerd

Proto-Kyle update

The National Hurricane Center is once again giving Invest 93L a greater than 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours, according to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook. “SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA…AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.”

Meanwhile, Alan Sullivan says the latest computer model runs look less threatening for Wall Street:

Proto-Kyle is still caught on the terrain of Hispaniola. … There’s no telling what it will do when it finally breaks loose, but models have converged somewhat, and many yield a landfall on Long Island or Cape Cod.

For a storm accelerating at this latitude, only the eastern eyewall constitutes a real danger. New York Harbor would not suffer significant surge unless a hurricane made the freakish New Jersey landfall, southwest of there. This could only happen if a storm were moving along a course west of north. The future Kyle is now modeled heading almost due north — a much more normal course, climatologically speaking. This means greatest risk of surge for southeastern New England … But it remains to be seen whether any future Kyle escapes the trap of Hispaniola with enough strength to develop at all.

Meanwhile, I’ve updated my sidebar, eliminating most of the Ike-specific links — though I’ve left up several links to sites with good aftermath coverage, and I’ve also added a link to the Red Cross. If you have any suggestions for particularly useful links, whether Ike-related or otherwise, please suggest them in comments.