Weather Nerd

Gustav in the Gulf

Hurricane Gustav is exiting Cuba and re-emerging over water, as you can see on long-range Key West radar, as well as the infrared satellite loop.

The satellite shows that the eye has “filled in” at upper levels, but that shouldn’t take long to correct itself overnight. The 11pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center will tell us how much, if at all, Gustav’s winds and pressure have weakened while over land.

Whatever the impact, I don’t think it’ll take the storm too long to recover. By late morning tomorrow, Gustav will be over the deep, warm water of the Loop Current, which is very favorable for rapid intensification:

gustav-warmwater.jpg

There are two big questions, intensity-wise: How strong will Gustav get tomorrow afternoon? And how much will it weaken during the 24 hours or so between its expected peak and its expected landfall?