Weather Nerd

Fay begins to strengthen

Meteorologist and weatherblogger Dr. Jeff Masters has a new post on Fay, in which he writes:

Tropical Storm Fay is strengthening again, taking advantage of the deep, warm waters between Cuba and Jamaica. Though Fay’s top winds are rated at just 45 mph, the storm has an increasingly impressive appearance on visible satellite loops. The circulation is expanding and intensifying, the upper-level outflow is expanding to the north and southeast, and low-level spiral bands are beginning to develop. Assuming Fay can dodge the southeast tip of Cuba without weakening, which appears likely to me, this should be a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday evening.

Masters also notes that Fay’s eventual track remains “a matter of considerable disagreement among the models, with the GFDL eying Miami, the NOGAPS and UKMET the Florida Panhandle, and the HWRF, ECMWF, and GFS the west coast of Florida.”

This will be my last update on Fay tonight. For the very latest, including the 11:00 PM and 5:00 AM EDT official advisories, visit the National Hurricane Center website, as well as the other sites linked in my sidebar at right. I’ll post a new update in the morning.