Weather Nerd

Oh... never mind.

So much for that potential “short-lived T.D.” The NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook at 8:00 PM EDT yesterday stated, “SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH [INVEST 98L] HAS DIMINISHED…AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA IS DECREASING.” Shortly before midnight, The Storm Track’s Bryan Woods chimed in:

The tropical wave that recently moved off the coast of Africa has died down and failed to develop, just as I predicted yesterday. I know that some of you were getting a bit excited at the prospect of tracking another system, but it is rare to see development this close to Africa. Convection is all but gone from Invest 98L at this time. However, we will continue to monitor the system for any signs of development, however unlikely they may be. The circulation remains relatively healthy for an Africa wave, but conditions are not favorable for convective development. The window has basically passed on this system as it is now encountering increasingly cooler waters.

In this morning’s 8:00 AM “outlook,” the NHC merged 98L with its boilerplate “formation is not expected” paragraph, stating simply:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH HIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING…AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

So, it looks like July, having been something of a “lion” in the tropics, will go out like a lamb. As Woods notes, “There are no other signs of development in the Atlantic at this time.”

Of course, as Woods also points out, “We are still about a month or so away from the peak of the season, so there is likely plenty of ‘excitement’ to come.”

(A hat tip on the title of the post to Emily Litella.)