Weather Nerd

Dolly finally begins to strengthen

Hot off the presses, the 8:00 PM EDT advisory indicates that Tropical Storm Dolly is finally getting her act together: “SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED…ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR NEAR 50 MPH.”

The minimum central pressure is down to 1000 millibars, from 1004. Increases in wind speed often follow a few hours after pressure drops, so it’s no surprise that the winds haven’t ramped up yet. But if the pressure keeps dropping (4 millibars is not a huge drop, but it’s the trend we’re looking for here), the winds will surely increase soon.

The 11:00 PM EDT advisory will be an important one to watch. It will contain a crucial update on Dolly’s ongoing strengthening; it will include a track forecast with data from the first entirely fresh set of computer-model runs since this morning; and it will almost certainly issue Hurricane Warnings for portions of the Texas and Mexico coasts.