Weather Nerd

Cristobal forms

Tropical Storm Cristobal has formed off the Carolina coast, with 40 mph sustained winds as of 2:00 PM EDT.

The public advisory says Cristobal is “likely to strengthen,” but we’ll have to wait for the 5:00 PM meteorological discussion to find out whether the NHC is expecting more strengthening than it was forecasting earlier, when it predicted that Cristobal (then T.D. 3) would peak at 50 mph.

For what it’s worth, the folks at FLhurricane.com say that the computer models “continue to be rather weak with development expectations, perhaps [due] to the proximity with land. However, at least for the next 2 days, warm [sea surface temperatures] combined with weak shear, and decent outflow aloft should allow for some gradual strengthening.

Here’s the current forecast track:

144712w_sm.gif

Meanwhile, “Invest 94L,” the Caribbean wave that I started calling “proto-Cristobal” last Monday, is now “proto-Dolly.” :)