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Wargaming the Electoral College

538-polls-plus

We can eliminate PA and WI right off the bat. Trump has led in exactly one PA poll -- and that was back in June. Even GOP Senator Pat Toomey looks to be in bad shape in his reelection bid, and PA's GOP statewide office-winners have done better than the GOP presidential nominee in every election since at least 1988. Toomey's apparent misfortune doesn't bode well for Trump there.

Marquette Law School just released its final poll of WI voters, and Clinton leads by six points. This was a huge poll of over 1,500 likely voters, conducted over six days on both sides of Friday's James Comey letter to Congress, and looks to be the final word before Wisconsin voters' final word.

If the rest of the map holds, and Trump wins NH and ME, that's the five votes he needs. We'll get results from those two New England states fairly early in the evening, and then it will be nail-biting time as we wait for NC, FL (both time zones!), OH, IA, and NV to come in. NV will be election night's real pucker test: RCP gives it to Trump, but as you see above, FiveThirtyEight's Poll-Plus model still gives Clinton a slight edge. And as you've also seen, Trump doesn't have NV's six votes to spare without picking up at least two other states. Unless that state is Michigan, which we'll get to on the next page.