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Wargaming the Electoral College


Nevada had been looking Blue most of the year, but look at those trend lines. Trump's performance in the final debate might just have given him a chance. He still trails by an average of two points, but that's hardly insurmountable. Whether Johnson voters stand by their man or switch to Clinton in the last days could determine the winner.

Arizona is interesting, and not just because we shouldn't have to be talking about Ari-effing-zona this close to Election Day -- but mostly because Clinton and Trump seem to be grabbing hold of nearly equal numbers of Undecided voters. Trump is down by 1.5 on average, but that doesn't strike me as statistically significant. As I've done all along, I'll be painting Arizona red again today.

And Texas as a Tossup? I just don't see it, not with Trump leading by an average of 4.7. That's admittedly weak for a GOP candidate, but it's still a big lead. With RCP's recent polls ranging from Trump +3 to Trump +7, the Lone Star State doesn't feel Blue this year.

The spread for Trump in Georgia is a measly +2.8 points, which again is pathetic for a GOP contender. That said, Clinton has led there only briefly, and that was way back at the beginning of August. Paint it, Red.