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Wargaming the Electoral College

Complicating things for Trump, the post-debate/post-p***y Baldwin Wallace Community Research Institute poll has Clinton with a nine-point lead in the four-way race. The CRI is new to me, but with a poll of over 1,100 likely voters and a slim MOE of 3%, their numbers can't be dismissed out of hand. And Ohio voters from this pool of respondents started voting today, so the number of switchable voters shrinks with each mailed-in ballot.

There's another potential oddball result in Utah. Gary Johnson's and Evan McMullin's apparent surge there, combined with Trump's slacking support, gives Clinton an outside chance of turning blue one of the reddest states in the country.

Also consider Florida, where the TV and radio waves practically throb with political ads. Unless OH and NC start reversing course right now and in a serious way, then FL could turn out to be this year's most expensive booby prize: Unnecessary to a Clinton win, and not enough to put Trump over the top.

So, as I said back in April, Trump's challenge isn't getting to 270 -- it's getting to 200.