Wargaming the Electoral College
If we retroactively count IN '08 as a battleground, then Romney has already taken two blue states and 26 EC votes. He's put 119 more Obama votes in play. Obama has put no red states in play. Not one. On our October, 2008 map, Obama had put "just" 100 red votes into play.
Now, Obama '08 had a much larger cushion -- he was sitting on an insurmountable lead of 264 EC votes going into Election Day. Romney doesn't have that luxury with just 207. But what Romney has done is to dig just as deeply into Obama's 2008 totals as Obama dug into Bush's 2004 numbers.
In the event that Romney sweeps through the battlegrounds, he wins 322 to 216. If he goes on to equal Obama's feat of dragging along an unlikely blue state (say, MN), that drives his total up to 332 and Obama down to a bargain-basement 206.
With this kind of a sweep, there's even an outside chance of CT, MI, or OR coming along for a ride on the Red Express.
Likely? Hahahahahahahaha, no. But the Momentum Charts show that it is possible. They also show that Obama has, in just four years, pissed away every single gain he and his party had made in the wake of the Great Recession and the Republican meltdown. We're fighting on his turf now.
Even if Obama wins next week, his legacy is one of great potential that was instantly squandered.
Update: I'm also on PJTV’s Trifecta, discussing, Electoral College Predictions: What Will the Final Numbers Be?
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