Wargaming the Electoral College
Here's how I pegged things four years ago.
As I wrote then, "As things stand now, Obama cruises to victory by winning any tossup state other than NV. McCain must win every tossup state other than NV." Of course, Obama went on to sweep every single one of the battleground states, then tacked on IN for good measure.
Let's see how those battlegrounds looked on the Momentum Chart, with Bush 2004 states in red and Kerry states in blue.
Just four years ago, every battleground was a red state, several of which Bush had won by comfortable margins in '04 -- and not one of them by my measure was a McCain leaner. Obama pushed deep into the red zone. But he couldn't hold them.
Today, five of those six battlegrounds are battlegrounds again today, plus IA, NH, PA, and WI -- with NC pretty comfortably red.
What do the numbers look like?
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