It's What You Can't See
The polls also have a hard time making numbers out of "broken glass voters." These are folks who (like me) voted for Bob Barr four years ago, or held their nose and grudgingly voted for McCain, or just stayed home. This year they'd crawl naked over broken glass to vote against Obama. There are even a few BGV types who voted for Obama last time around. They can also be filed under "Won't Get Fooled Again." They feel betrayed, and rightly so.
Let's not forget the few principled civil libertarians on the left. They were all kinds of enthused by Obama's promised to be Not-Bush on foreign policy. Circa 300 drones strikes later, and they aren't quite so enthused anymore. While we're at it, let's rub Gitmo and expanded wiretapping into that wound, shall we?
So it's safe to say that there are two undercurrents in this election. One is from the center and towards Romney. The other is from the left and away from Obama. There is no current -- none -- moving in Obama's direction. The only reason this is a race at all, is Blue State Lock-In. The ruined husks of CA, IL, NY and others are safely blue and carry lots of electoral college votes. It will take a wave, not an undercurrent, to paint them red -- a wave which might just come in 2016 if a President Romney can govern in his first term like Reagan did in his.